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When we have lost to decent teams we can beat, we lose the turnover battle AND we don’t shoot the 3 well. (I am thinking specifically of Miami and Vatech not UVa, Notre Dame and @ Clemson.)
We may be in luck. I have scheduled a 9 mile run for myself to start @ 1 pm. I did this on purpose in order to keep me from turning a raving lunatic (that and the fact that it beat getting up @ 7 to do it on 5 hours t sleep.)
Our key today is defense….force more turnovers than we commit, stay out of foul trouble, shoot the 3 above 35% and don’t give up wide open 3s.
Vawolf without a doubt an RPI in the 60s would mean we would have to win at least 2 games in the ACC tournament.
However, I also believe an RPI in the 60s means we finished 9-9 vs 10-8. I am not as confident as I once was that 10-8 would get us there… but we will see how our RPI moves if we do that
Like you, I want us in top 40 in old RPI come selection Sunday. (And per Dance card, we ain’t that far off.)
Great stuff as always Vawolf.
It’s really interesting to see the Delta’s between the old RPI’s and the new socially engineered RPIs. (I say this because the new RPI was created with an intention – and that intent was not to rank the teams as purely as possible.)
Great news that we are “in” according to dance card. We are kind of at a high point in terms of conference record, so we need to maintain from here on out to stay on the right side of the bubble.
Vawolf – it’s a fun conversation. As I have said before, you have taught me more about the selection process than anyone and I like the finer points of the process that we discuss…and I am glad that we are part of the conversation call compared to the last 2 years.
VaWolf – Just a couple of thoughts.
1) While a Tuesday win is meaningless, a Tuesday loss could be devastating. There’s a good chance it results in your RPI dropping more than 5 points.
2) OTOH, I think the neutral win over another bubble team would be huge.
3) Finally, who you beat and when you beat them could absolutely matter. The same way it could matter as to your team when they lost.
The key thing here is that you are actually one of those last few bubble teams. Obviously, the committee doesn’t use a straight numerical formula. Their power lies in keeping the process a back-room thing. They are perfectly capable of creating a measurement which would create transparency and let exactly everything they need to do to move themselves into an at large bid. That they haven’t shows that they’d favor the backroom process.
Let’s hope that they use this process to factor in things like – whom are you capable of beating, what was your injury situation like. Has anything happened that artificially inflated / deflated your RPI / Kenpom / Sagarin?
But they key for all 3 of those is that you are part of the conversation. Most of the ACC bubble teams that have missed the tournament have been mid 60s or higher in terms of RPI. I don’t think RPI is there if we go 10-8. Again, we can have a loss that drops us from 48 to a 62 or something like that in the tourney. But in general, I think the schedule sets up for us to be in the 90% range if we win 6 out of 10. I think we both know that ideally, our measurements will be at least in the low 40s in 2 of the 3 big ranking systems (1 definitely needs to be RPI.)
It I be interesting to see where our rpi ends up if we win 5 out of the next 9. It has gone from 145 to 65 in a month.
VA Wolf – I don’t think 4 wins in our next 10 will get us in.
I do think 5 will likely get us in, but as you pointed out, that’s not a sure thing.
Theoretically, if we win 5 of our next 9 that would either mean sweeping our opponents at home or a one or two road wins and a home loss.
I would think that would push our kenpom and RPI into the Top 50 zone.
As you know, in Gott’s 3rd year, we went 9-9 in conference and won 2 in the ACC tournament to get our bid. The biggest difference between this team and a lot of Gott’s teams is that we already have some big wins (hoping they stay big.)
Yes. He has been pushing the right buttons.
And from everything I can tell, he would be fun to play for and you would want your son to play for him.
And great point about the heart, our guys have withstood pressure at the end the last 3 games.
Time to back that Brinks truck!
What toughness this team showed. Down by 4 with a few minutes left in regulation… totally screwed right before ot and 1st call of ot.
Beautiful effort.
A couple of thoughts:
1. I am going to attempt to watch this game with emotional distance I did for the Duke game.2. The officiating will be awful. It will be borderline criminal because it’s a reflection of conference and NCAA leadership.
3. I don’t think Sid ever won in Chapel Hill.
(But I am not as sure as I should be since I know one year Roy missed the tournament.4. Keatts has impressed this year.
Nac state has some work to do.
The good news is that the NCAA is evidently going to include Sagarin and Kenpom on their team sheets. This is good news for us as our ratings is higher in both of these rating systems.
It’s going to be real Interesting to see where our ratings end up if we can finish the season with .500 record in conference. Our horrible ooc schedule is killing us right now.
Texpack – when I say 8 or 9 I mean that many wins with our remaining games (including ACC tournament). That should get us in the tournament. I think we’d have to at least finish 9-9 and win a tournament game. In theory that number would also allow us to go 8-10 and reach the ACC tournament finals (and lose) as well.
But if we can 9 of our next 17 games, I think we dance. #cartwaybeforehorse.
I think our RPI will improve tomorrow even with a loss.
I am thinking our “magic” number right now is 8 or 9. I think if we do that, we will have a bubblelicious RPI and lots of key wins that the NCAA likes. We need some little things like some of those cupcakes we played being better than they were the year before. Arizona, Penn State, UT and UNI remaining good would help too….but one of them will obviously need to faulter.
Everything I know about the bubble I learned from Vawolf. Sadly, because I am a state fan I have had to learn a lot.
After watching that jags bills game, I am thrilled Finley returned because he threw it better than both of those QBs.
That was beautiful.
Don’t look now but Al Freeman is starting to play less selfishly. He played a magnificent game. Yurtsven doing Yurtsven things.
Abu is starting to feel good about himself again.
And botb – love the ghosts on the South smoking porch reference. Poetic baby.
Yep. I am hoping this ain’t Sendek Part Duex…where the coach realizes 4 years into his tenure that you have to recruit good, relatively smart basketball players, not just great athletes to win in this conference.
Whew. That was brutal.
It does look like the team made more of an effort to distribute the ball. Unfortunately, too many of those distributions went to the domers.
Oh well, onward.
Our post season chances are pretty slim. MJ’s suspension probably clinched us CBI or worse.
Our offense is awful. If our most experienced guard was more selective on his shots, we might have a shot. But that hasn’t been the case thus far and it’s crazy to think that will change.
We looked awesome yesterday. Second straight bowl game where it looked like seniors vs freshmen.
One thing to think about.
DD hired Drink and Ledford as replacements. Now, the DL coach hire didn’t exactly thrill me, but thus far, he looks just fine.
Btw, got a big time tight end transfer today from usc condoms
