ACC Basketball – Midseason Report

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This topic contains 32 replies, has 14 voices, and was last updated by  VaWolf82 3 months, 2 weeks ago.

Viewing 8 posts - 26 through 33 (of 33 total)
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  • #129872

    choppack1
    Participant

    It I be interesting to see where our rpi ends up if we win 5 out of the next 9. It has gone from 145 to 65 in a month.

    #129875

    MrPlywood
    Participant

    Clemson beats the Holes. What will it take for uNX to drop out of the rankings? They’re still a 4 seed on Lunardi’s bracket.

    #129876

    ryebread
    Participant

    UNC is going to get a pass due to injuries, particularly if/when those players come back. Personally, I hope they don’t before we get our next crack at them.

    I would say that this is a huge win for them with Grantham out. Some on the boards effectively declared them dead, but they just defended their home court for the first time in a long time against the cheaters.

    I tend to think that ND is the team that likely won’t/can’t recover and may not make the tournament barring some miracle run in the ACC Tournament. We really need to take care of business on Saturday.

    Chop: I tend to agree. Just keep winning and it will all take care of itself.

    #129887

    choppack1
    Participant

    VaWolf – Just a couple of thoughts.

    1) While a Tuesday win is meaningless, a Tuesday loss could be devastating. There’s a good chance it results in your RPI dropping more than 5 points.

    2) OTOH, I think the neutral win over another bubble team would be huge.

    3) Finally, who you beat and when you beat them could absolutely matter. The same way it could matter as to your team when they lost.

    The key thing here is that you are actually one of those last few bubble teams. Obviously, the committee doesn’t use a straight numerical formula. Their power lies in keeping the process a back-room thing. They are perfectly capable of creating a measurement which would create transparency and let exactly everything they need to do to move themselves into an at large bid. That they haven’t shows that they’d favor the backroom process.

    Let’s hope that they use this process to factor in things like – whom are you capable of beating, what was your injury situation like. Has anything happened that artificially inflated / deflated your RPI / Kenpom / Sagarin?

    But they key for all 3 of those is that you are part of the conversation. Most of the ACC bubble teams that have missed the tournament have been mid 60s or higher in terms of RPI. I don’t think RPI is there if we go 10-8. Again, we can have a loss that drops us from 48 to a 62 or something like that in the tourney. But in general, I think the schedule sets up for us to be in the 90% range if we win 6 out of 10. I think we both know that ideally, our measurements will be at least in the low 40s in 2 of the 3 big ranking systems (1 definitely needs to be RPI.)

    #129888

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    Obviously, the committee doesn’t use a straight numerical formula. Their power lies in keeping the process a back-room thing. They are perfectly capable of creating a measurement which would create transparency and let exactly everything they need to do to move themselves into an at large bid. That they haven’t shows that they’d favor the backroom process.

    If I had a say, I wouldn’t turn the decision making over to a formula either. From my point of view, there are too many variables to ever feel comfortable that you had adequately accounted for all of them. The approach that the NCAA uses does allow room for humans to occasionally make a mistake. But by making it a committee decision, it gives the Selection Committee the opportunity to over ride a mistake that was inadvertently buried in the “formula”.

    We agree on far more things that we disagree on. But it seems like we have this conversation almost every year…and that’s OK with me. The one thing that I would change about the selection process is to install some type of independent review to catch the mistakes that creep in from time to time. If nothing else, it would give the committee chairman a chance to get his reasoning straight before going on national TV to be picked apart by the media.

    #129889

    rthomas44
    Participant

    Just to show everyone what a “Homer” I am…State, IMNSHO, will WIN OUT!

    #129893

    choppack1
    Participant

    Vawolf – it’s a fun conversation. As I have said before, you have taught me more about the selection process than anyone and I like the finer points of the process that we discuss…and I am glad that we are part of the conversation call compared to the last 2 years.

    #129902

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    It I be interesting to see where our rpi ends up if we win 5 out of the next 9. It has gone from 145 to 65 in a month.

    I saw a reference to RPI Wizard at PP and googled it. It gives a percentage chance of winning each remaining game and the option to pick a win or loss and then estimate an RPI based on its projections with your inputs. I played around with it for a little and think State has a good chance of being a lock before the ACCT with 5-4 down the stretch.

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