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I would bet good money that if you ask the players they love to play for DD. And I also think the tweaks in the coaches will show positive returns this year. DD is growing and maturing too. Great coaches aren’t made overnight. The difficult thing is they will have to keep their heads up if they have some rough spots. This year’s schedule is brutal.
Smarter than the average bear
TAT, 20 degrees of a 180 is almost impossible to discern, especially with storms, huge breakers and a headwind. If winning was easy anyone could do it. That was the point I was trying to make.
Even the best of the top programs can’t master it on a continuing basis. Even the legends of coaching succumb to it most of the time. It happened to Bear Bryant, Bowden, Spurrier, Holtz, et al. The list goes on forever. BUT, some programs never make it out of their glass ceiling. Wake happened to get lucky when Bowden was winding down and Clemson was a bit in turmoil and no one else had anything. Sometimes you just get lucky. In 83 Valvano got very lucky, and then he rode the luck with some really savvy coaching. Sloan on the other hand would have won two if not for the jealousy of one DES.
All sport is a crap shoot every year. It’s the nature of the beast. Look at the landscape, today’s hot commodity in coaching is tomorrows corpse. Mack Brown won a NC and 3 years later he’s sitting in a TV booth. And if anyone could pick a winning coach out of the barrel on a perfect basis they would be the hottest consultant to ever live. The truth is hiring a coach is at best a losing proposition, no matter who they are, because one day they are on top, the next they fade away.
Smarter than the average bear
It wasn’t mean to be an argument but a valid question. There came a point where most agreed CTC had to go, in comes O’Brien, then TOB had to go. From my perspective DD is better than TOB. But then that’s just my perspective. But no matter how you look at it, over the last 40 years, no matter what the sport, we have had very little in terms of flashes of brilliance. Even Jimmy V had a ceiling. They nickle and dime’d Sloan, Lou bolted. Sheridan was pretty good but not outstanding. They let Tanner bolt for USC where he won a NC. College athletics (as well as all sports) is a battlefield strewn with carcasses of coaches, some of them legends.
So the question is, who do you hire? It’s one thing to fuss about what you got but when the rubber meets the road it’s who do you replace them with (I found out the hard way this can be especially true with wives)?
Smarter than the average bear
I’ve been thinking about what I read here as expectations of DD and the State program in general. By comparison I’d like to present the case of David Cutcliffe. He took over a program in not much worse shape than O’Brien left us with. It has taken him a long time to just achieve a small measure of success. He faces the same problem we do in recruiting and lack of success over the past 40 years or so. And quite honestly neither Duke nor NC State can claim any measure of sustained success over that time span. Matter of fact before FSU came into the ACC it had been many many years since any program in the conference had any great success in football other than Clemson in 1981 and that was surely tainted by bending or flat out ignoring the rules (not to the measure that UNX has but they weren’t exactly sparkily clean).
Now Cut is a pretty darned good coach I’m sure most would agree. The point I’m trying to make is this, changing our football paradigm is like turning an air craft carrier. Even if that sucker is doing 10 knots (which is about half speed) it can take 30 miles to turn it around. Throw in bad weather and headwinds and that figure goes up. If you take into consideration the past 4 years vs. the past 40 I’d say DD is only about 20 degrees of that 180 degree turn. There have been lots of people at the helm for those 40 years and very few have turned the ship around.
For some perspective look at Alabama between 1979 and 2009. They did win one national championship in 92 but they also went through some bleak times by their standards. And it ain’t like they didn’t have the money to hire a great coach OR recruits to beat the band. By the same token look at South Carolina, their last two coaches won NCs AND one of them had a measure of success at State and the other at Duke and yet they were anything but stellar there. For all who are ready to string DD up and cut him lose tell me one thing, WHO are you gonna get to replace him? My bet is IF you could afford Saban and could talk him into leaving Alabama he’d still have 27 miles to turn that ship around. Momentum is a fickle mistress.
Smarter than the average bear
Personally I’m going with 13-0 or 0-12 or somewhere in between. That way my prediction is absolutely correct and no one can dispute it. To the point, predictions don’t mean crap. Play the games, pull for the red and white, tell UNX they should be on triple secret probation and shouldn’t even be allowed to field a team, and hope for a Christmas miracle that we beat Clemson, FSU and ND. LOL, this thread could have been interjected into the movie Inside Out and it would have fit perfectly, but then only State fans would have been able to appreciate it. Lewis Black could play the part of Rick.
Smarter than the average bear
I will just say that at least for a couple of nights, I would be willing to comfort the Russian swimmer accused of juicing. After all, she has already shown that she’s loose with society’s expectations.
Chop, I CANNOT imagine what you’re implying. Would you be testing her yourself, possibly with probes, to determine if she was using banned substances?
Smarter than the average bear
How’d ya like that backstroke gold, Chops?
BTW. My mom was a 1952 Olympic qualifier swimmer. Too bad she met my dad in 51ish. LOL
Ummmm… if she hadn’t you might not be here CD, and that would be sad for all of us who enjoy your wisdom (and at times terse commentary)
Smarter than the average bear
What’s with wanting to restrict voting to one day?
What’s the rationale behind it?
How about 200 plus years of precedent? That’s why it’s called election DAY. And as for polarization, yep, that is entirely on Obama’s shoulders. He is without a doubt the absolute worst president in history. Almost NO economic growth (economy looks like the great depression), rhetoric beyond belief which daily creates racial strife, a judicial system that allows a criminal to be running for president (Hillary should be in jail not on the campaign trail), ransom to Iran, a public healthcare system that is going broke day by day. I could make a list that would fill up this page.
Smarter than the average bear
I’ve been putting money into social security for 47 years. I’m pretty sure I deserve what they will pay me… AND MORE!
Smarter than the average bear
That could knock out retirees. I’d go for that with the caveat that retirees who have have a record of paying income taxes can still vote.
Smarter than the average bear
HA, funny CD. That question wasn’t asked but my supposition knowing what was asked and the responses that fear would probably easily transfer to what you said. Probably wouldn’t require skirts and pearls but someone who obviously was a woman by design. Protective mode of a mother usually drives data off the scale in some surveys. I don’t like spiders and snakes but both of those drive my wife into bezerk mode!
Smarter than the average bear
Tractor, that is the exact reason the company I work for exists. Polls that sample 1000 (on the phone no less) are notoriously inaccurate. They state their margin of error is +/- 4%, we find that to be too low since there is no way they can ensure their statistical population matches real life. We prefer much larger samples and we tend to ask questions about how people feel rather than boxing their answers into a choice of two or five (normal polling methodology). I’m not saying our data is perfect by any stretch, we constantly look at our processes every day and how to improve our accuracy, but I’d bet my bottom dollar there’s not many who can provide survey data that can match what we call “percentage of reliability” for our clients. As the big boss says “do you want cheap or highly accurate?”
Smarter than the average bear
The polling accuracy you cited is suspect IMO. A more accurate number ‘could’ be ~ 4%. The percentage of illegal ‘citizens’ with ID would make your head explode.
Smarter than the average bear
By NC law as soon as the sex change is complete they will issue a new birth certificate. gso, I truly feel for those who are considered sexually confused as a trick of nature. And that occurs in somewhere like 1 in 100,000 (rough estimate, not very good data on that). As I’ve stated using self identify for those people put a much larger group into a risk point and the numbers who feel the risk are 56,000 in 100,00 (or higher actually since men were in the population for the surveys). The women with young children came in at 81%. If you include grandmothers with young grandchildren it comes in at a whopping 93%. Hence the term statistical long shot. Whether you agree or not women with children or grandchildren have a real fear, not imagined that allowing self identify would put them in grave danger (actual results in over 60% from that group). Dealing with the problems of the 1 in 100,00 people by allowing self identify is an answer that puts a huge percentage of the population at risk, real or imagined.
I’ve been married for 42 years and the one thing that p’s off my wife more than anything else is for me to blow off something that causes her fear. Case in point, ANY snake. Doesn’t matter if it’s poisonous or not, if it’s a snake it creates great fear in her and it must be immediately dealt with. I have 3 neighbors that are the same way, and one of them is a guy.
In our survey work we stress to our surveyors to look for data about how people feel since feelings and perceptions drive people’s actions to a MUCH larger degree that facts. Perception overrides reality everyday. One of my wife’s favorite expressions is “don’t confuse the issue with facts”.
Smarter than the average bear
But that IS the question. It is the driving force behind 56% saying they would not agree to a law that allows it. The modification to HB2 took care of the discrimination of not allowing them to sue, which everyone agrees was wrong, even me. What few if any people realize is that the part about not allowing self identification to include them in that class is not discrimination. The part of the bill that deals with women’s facilities to remain only for women did nothing to change current law but codified what constitutes what sex you are, which today is nothing different than it was July 29, 2015 or July 29, 1916. What your birth certificate says you are is what you are. Can an individual’s identity be changed? Yes, but only when the plumbing matches and a new birth certificate is issued. It’s funny very few states have even attempted to pass the self identify law and Houston repealed it, and Seattle may have to also due to intense pressure from constituents. Obama will never be able to make it fly in schools. The crux is it does not discriminate. Their right to use a bathroom is not removed, but it just defines which one they can use. Unlike the separate but equal mantra prior to 1964 there is no precedent of discrimination which self identification can remedy. On the flip side I gave a perfect example of how self identification could cause grave harm to those who invoke it but no one bothered to give a remedy to the example.
Smarter than the average bear
87, we do 10,000 surveys a week. Part of what we do is retail pricing research for merchants, and we also piggyback other data collection in those surveys. The one thing we have found and it’s worked for us really well is that EVERYONE has to eat and the grocery store is the #1 face to face survey point. Our surveyors get grocery store chain and other retail pricing data and then do surveys on a large number of questions that our clients seek after they grab the pricing data. We have become in the process one of the best at detecting trends and data that no one else gets by normal polling methods. I will admit that there have been times when I have been blown away by the data I see. Some in line with what I think and some totally opposed to my thinking.
Smarter than the average bear
But Pak, THAT was the question, to women, would passing a law that allows self identifiers to use their bathroom of choice make you feel threatened. In all of this discussion THAT has been my central thread which those of you who have opposed my view have failed to address. The number of women who feel threatened if that were allowed is statistically HUGE. Large enough that it has cost Roy Cooper his lead in the polls.
Smarter than the average bear
No, you did not pre qualify your respondents. If you knew anything about statistical analysis and polling you would understand that your general population of respondents must match your demographics of the population as a whole. I have no idea what methods you used but we have to use statistical evidence that we poll a representative population, whether we use a question that leads the respondents in a certain direction or not. That’s why informal polls are of little statistical merit, especially call in polls, on line polls, and any poll that cannot certify a representative population. That’s why most political polls say +/- 4%. That’s a lot of ambiguity. We strive to do much better than that. For instance in 2014 we called Thom Tillis over Kay Hagen on the Sunday before election day, even though most of the polls still had Hagen up by as much as 3 points. As a matter of fact we called every US Senate race that year and all but 3 House races. I can skew any poll data I want simply by changing a few variables, which we do at times because we want to limit the population of sampling to only those people who fit the paradigm of the market we are polling.
What percentage of the women have young children? How did they break down by age group? And a mere poll of 7 women in a workplace doesn’t come close to statistical averages. You could be working in an environment that predisposes responses based on being a member of a statistical group within women that is not indicative of the population as a whole. One of my favorite quotes is “statistics lie, populations tell the whole story”. In this case the population at large of women would contribute almost 69% of that 56% that say that allowing a transgender individual to use the public restroom of their choice does pose a security risk for women and children. If you back that in to women with young children the number is that statistical long shot (more than 80% of the respondents in any demographic group is a long shot and overwhelms any inclusion in any other population such as being liberal or conservative). You may not like my politics or my views but I’m damned good at statistical data management, and the company I work for does VERY accurate work for our clients.
Smarter than the average bear
Since the primary target in this discussion has been the safety of women and only women can testify as to whether they would feel threatened if a law were passed to allow “self identifiers” to use whatever restroom they desire then it would be only women 18 or older. And since these women would also hold a view to protect their daughters, if they have them, then it should be ensured that the percentage of the population that have daughters under the age of 16 is represented. After that normal age demographics would be the rule. One question. How would you feel if a law were passed that allowed access to restrooms, locker rooms, or other facilities normally designated for use only by female, to males who “self identified” as female. Now, if you aren’t willing to pony up then you have no stand to say that women do not have a fear of this happening. And like I said, if you take the bait, you will lose because I already know the answer to a question that parallels this one. And the percentages are astounding for 3 different groups of women, and for women overall the percentages are much higher than you think. I can share this from a previous poll that was released to the public:
56% of North Carolinians agree with the provision of the law (46% strongly agree) that requires transgender individuals to use the bathroom of their birth, and not the bathroom of their choosing.
56% say that allowing a transgender individual to use the public restroom of their choice does pose a security risk for women and children.Wanna guess what percentage of that 56% was women only? Break down that a bit farther to women with children 16 and under and the results is what we term a statistical longshot.
Smarter than the average bear
Nope, you have to have a REAL poll, you can claim whatever you want on here to back up what you think is right. Scientific EVIDENCE. Tell you what, since the company I work for actually does these sorts of things, come up with the scratch to do the poll and I’ll split the cost on the front end, and then the loser pays total cost. Sort of like put your money where your mouth is. Now the premise is the majority of women will agree with you, or not. We’ll define women for this poll as any women over 18. And we’ll break down the 1000 respondents to match the demographics in accordance with the demographic breakdown in the state. Part of these demographics will include percentages of women with daughters under the age of 16. If you prefer some other polling company then there are several I know that can do the job.
Now in fairness I must conclude I already know the outcome to this poll, +/- 4%, since we piggybacked questions on this 4 months ago for one of our clients. But still, if any of you are so sure of what the answer will be then pony up.
Smarter than the average bear
Wulfpack, you and others continue to either miss the point of ignore it. Citing the case of the handicap only confuses it. D Wolf said exactly what I’ve been saying. You have no proof that someone is who they claim to be without setting a standard. Unfortunately the only true method is a birth certificate, and North Caolina can and will issue a new birth certificate and drivers license to those who have sex change operations. I’ve talked to a great number of people about this law and overwhelmingly those who have actually READ the law support it since it does not discriminate in any way against those who can prove they belong to a specific class. The sticking point with those who do not want someone to self identify to belong to that class. It is obvious if you are willing to listen to their point of view, but then listening to the other side is something I’ve found liberals greatly lacking in over the last 20 years or so. And for the record I have not found one female YET who would support the self identify law. And like D wolf many parents hate the fact that Obama is trying to shove that down their throats by threatening to withhold federal money to schools if they don’t fall in line. The list of those joining the class action law suit to prevent that is quite large, and growing everyday.
Smarter than the average bear
I got dogs, big dogs, 3 of them, and they will eat you up. Bring on the poop.
Smarter than the average bear
How about an exercise in practical application to the right to self identify to gain access to whatever facilities someone desires since that is what those opposed to the HB2 law want.
An 18 year old transgender wins the right to use whatever facilities they want in their school. The case is widely covered in the news. The person uses said restroom despite objections from students and parents. More publicity. the 18 yo graduates and sometime later commits a crime which requires incarceration. OK, where do you put them? By self identify the authorities should be required to send him to a female jail, but the problem is notoriety makes that impossible. Male jail, nope sitting duck there too. What’s the answer? it’s obvious this thing has long term ramifications no one has looked at. But the answer to many is simple, that 1 in 10,000 or more has more rights to do what they wish than those who do not want it’s side effects.
Smarter than the average bear
