07/29/2016 at 12:56 PM #105142
What would you consider a representative sample? What populations will you be drawing your samples from? How will you word the question? Will there be any preceding questions?07/29/2016 at 1:06 PM #105143RickKeymaster
There is nothing more convincing than anecdotal evidence.07/29/2016 at 1:19 PM #105144
There is nothing more convincing than anecdotal evidence.
The plural of anecdote is data.07/29/2016 at 1:26 PM #105145RickKeymaster07/29/2016 at 1:45 PM #105146
Since the primary target in this discussion has been the safety of women and only women can testify as to whether they would feel threatened if a law were passed to allow “self identifiers” to use whatever restroom they desire then it would be only women 18 or older. And since these women would also hold a view to protect their daughters, if they have them, then it should be ensured that the percentage of the population that have daughters under the age of 16 is represented. After that normal age demographics would be the rule. One question. How would you feel if a law were passed that allowed access to restrooms, locker rooms, or other facilities normally designated for use only by female, to males who “self identified” as female. Now, if you aren’t willing to pony up then you have no stand to say that women do not have a fear of this happening. And like I said, if you take the bait, you will lose because I already know the answer to a question that parallels this one. And the percentages are astounding for 3 different groups of women, and for women overall the percentages are much higher than you think. I can share this from a previous poll that was released to the public:
56% of North Carolinians agree with the provision of the law (46% strongly agree) that requires transgender individuals to use the bathroom of their birth, and not the bathroom of their choosing.
56% say that allowing a transgender individual to use the public restroom of their choice does pose a security risk for women and children.
Wanna guess what percentage of that 56% was women only? Break down that a bit farther to women with children 16 and under and the results is what we term a statistical longshot.
Smarter than the average bear07/29/2016 at 2:09 PM #105147
^now that’s funny!
I did my tiny sampling in response to several of the posts (from both sides of the issue) citing the author’s relative certainty that a vast majority of women would agree with his position. My suspicion was that women’s positions would be very much like men’s: i.e., I would see some support, some resistance, some indifference, etc. What was surprising to me was the near 100% alignment, irrespective (seemingly) of politics…
Been a long time since I studied probability, but just seems to be that if 50% of the population likes the law, then 50% doesn’t. For me to get a run of 7 consecutive non-supporting opinions, the likelihood is 0.5^7 or .008. If the law is supported by a “vast majority”, the math just gets worse.
Assuming my probabilities are correct, this diagram shows the probability of the outcome I observed at various levels of opposition for the bill:
As you can see, if 90% of the population opposes the bill, I’m still less that 50% likely to get SEVEN in a row…Again, if the opposition is less that 90%, it gets less likely.
I’ll be clear: I don’t KNOW what the majority of people think. I was just very surprised at what I found ANECDOTALLY and thought others might be as well. If you’re not surprised or don’t care, please ignore me…
Maybe I was just really, really, really lucky this morning. I should buy a lottery ticket.
Cheers!07/29/2016 at 2:11 PM #105148
I love this board and I love you people.07/29/2016 at 2:50 PM #105149
No, you did not pre qualify your respondents. If you knew anything about statistical analysis and polling you would understand that your general population of respondents must match your demographics of the population as a whole. I have no idea what methods you used but we have to use statistical evidence that we poll a representative population, whether we use a question that leads the respondents in a certain direction or not. That’s why informal polls are of little statistical merit, especially call in polls, on line polls, and any poll that cannot certify a representative population. That’s why most political polls say +/- 4%. That’s a lot of ambiguity. We strive to do much better than that. For instance in 2014 we called Thom Tillis over Kay Hagen on the Sunday before election day, even though most of the polls still had Hagen up by as much as 3 points. As a matter of fact we called every US Senate race that year and all but 3 House races. I can skew any poll data I want simply by changing a few variables, which we do at times because we want to limit the population of sampling to only those people who fit the paradigm of the market we are polling.
What percentage of the women have young children? How did they break down by age group? And a mere poll of 7 women in a workplace doesn’t come close to statistical averages. You could be working in an environment that predisposes responses based on being a member of a statistical group within women that is not indicative of the population as a whole. One of my favorite quotes is “statistics lie, populations tell the whole story”. In this case the population at large of women would contribute almost 69% of that 56% that say that allowing a transgender individual to use the public restroom of their choice does pose a security risk for women and children. If you back that in to women with young children the number is that statistical long shot (more than 80% of the respondents in any demographic group is a long shot and overwhelms any inclusion in any other population such as being liberal or conservative). You may not like my politics or my views but I’m damned good at statistical data management, and the company I work for does VERY accurate work for our clients.
Smarter than the average bear07/29/2016 at 3:26 PM #105150
Yogi, thank you for sharing those examples of your company’s work as I was prepared to lump you in with all of those other polling firms who seem to be taking long lunches and flipping coins. 🙂
With that said, I still believe this issue is being both overblown and oversimplified at the same time.
p.s. That is NOT a recipe for progress07/29/2016 at 3:41 PM #105151
But to eliminate your own bias you have to ask the question multiple different ways.
And your proposed question is clearly biased toward getting the response you want.07/29/2016 at 3:47 PM #105152
But Pak, THAT was the question, to women, would passing a law that allows self identifiers to use their bathroom of choice make you feel threatened. In all of this discussion THAT has been my central thread which those of you who have opposed my view have failed to address. The number of women who feel threatened if that were allowed is statistically HUGE. Large enough that it has cost Roy Cooper his lead in the polls.
Smarter than the average bear07/29/2016 at 4:05 PM #105153
I feel threatened by pollsters asking questions, where does that get recorded? 🙂07/29/2016 at 4:08 PM #105154
I feel threatened by pollsters asking questions, where does that get recorded?
Tumblr07/29/2016 at 4:10 PM #105155
^all very good points.
I just found it odd. I’ve had many more conversations with men, and what I have found is a diversity of opinion – just like we see on this board. I expected the same from women, perhaps skewed a bit more toward support of the law. I was just surprised by the result.
Not intending to ascribe any value or representation to my method. Apologies if that wasn’t clear…07/29/2016 at 4:33 PM #105156
87, we do 10,000 surveys a week. Part of what we do is retail pricing research for merchants, and we also piggyback other data collection in those surveys. The one thing we have found and it’s worked for us really well is that EVERYONE has to eat and the grocery store is the #1 face to face survey point. Our surveyors get grocery store chain and other retail pricing data and then do surveys on a large number of questions that our clients seek after they grab the pricing data. We have become in the process one of the best at detecting trends and data that no one else gets by normal polling methods. I will admit that there have been times when I have been blown away by the data I see. Some in line with what I think and some totally opposed to my thinking.
Smarter than the average bear07/29/2016 at 4:54 PM #105157
But Pak, THAT was the question, to women, would passing a law that allows self identifiers to use their bathroom of choice make you feel threatened.
We’re definitely not going to agree on an answer if we can’t agree on the question.07/29/2016 at 5:28 PM #105159
But that IS the question. It is the driving force behind 56% saying they would not agree to a law that allows it. The modification to HB2 took care of the discrimination of not allowing them to sue, which everyone agrees was wrong, even me. What few if any people realize is that the part about not allowing self identification to include them in that class is not discrimination. The part of the bill that deals with women’s facilities to remain only for women did nothing to change current law but codified what constitutes what sex you are, which today is nothing different than it was July 29, 2015 or July 29, 1916. What your birth certificate says you are is what you are. Can an individual’s identity be changed? Yes, but only when the plumbing matches and a new birth certificate is issued. It’s funny very few states have even attempted to pass the self identify law and Houston repealed it, and Seattle may have to also due to intense pressure from constituents. Obama will never be able to make it fly in schools. The crux is it does not discriminate. Their right to use a bathroom is not removed, but it just defines which one they can use. Unlike the separate but equal mantra prior to 1964 there is no precedent of discrimination which self identification can remedy. On the flip side I gave a perfect example of how self identification could cause grave harm to those who invoke it but no one bothered to give a remedy to the example.
Smarter than the average bear07/29/2016 at 5:58 PM #105165WulfpackParticipant
I really could give two turds what any poll says or doesn’t say about this issue. That’s never been the test. Thank you, Lord, for that.07/29/2016 at 9:05 PM #105168
Yogi, never thought about the grocery angle – that’s f’in brilliant. Sounds like fascinating work.07/29/2016 at 9:05 PM #105169choppack1Participant
No matter what people think – right is right.
To me, where the NC law went too far was the birth certificate.
I think a good rule of thumb is the plumbing rule. As for those who are in transition…l have no idea the best way to handle on a public / government basis. However, I digital businesses should be able to handle as they see fit.07/29/2016 at 11:31 PM #105173
Ahh, now we get to the details. While I guess, I can imagine there is someonw out there in NC whose birth certificate says male, but has a highly unsusual situation below the belt. I don’t really see this case as self identifying as much as trying to correctly identify, regardless of what someone put on a birth certificate years earlier.
Sure, not a lot of these cases, but how would someone in this situation go about about things? Can you petition for a change in birth certificate gender without a sex change?
Serious question. When I think of the law, I think about people like thia, not some pervert stalking the bathroom, although we must protect againat that as well. That is why they coined the phrase comprehensive legialation.07/30/2016 at 1:32 AM #105174tractor57Participant
True story – some years ago I had some vocal chord surgery. When the saga started the surgeon was a he and by the time the surgery happened he was a she. I suspect she never had a birth cert changed to reflect the new plumbing. So which bathroom should she use?07/30/2016 at 7:20 AM #105177
By NC law as soon as the sex change is complete they will issue a new birth certificate. gso, I truly feel for those who are considered sexually confused as a trick of nature. And that occurs in somewhere like 1 in 100,000 (rough estimate, not very good data on that). As I’ve stated using self identify for those people put a much larger group into a risk point and the numbers who feel the risk are 56,000 in 100,00 (or higher actually since men were in the population for the surveys). The women with young children came in at 81%. If you include grandmothers with young grandchildren it comes in at a whopping 93%. Hence the term statistical long shot. Whether you agree or not women with children or grandchildren have a real fear, not imagined that allowing self identify would put them in grave danger (actual results in over 60% from that group). Dealing with the problems of the 1 in 100,00 people by allowing self identify is an answer that puts a huge percentage of the population at risk, real or imagined.
I’ve been married for 42 years and the one thing that p’s off my wife more than anything else is for me to blow off something that causes her fear. Case in point, ANY snake. Doesn’t matter if it’s poisonous or not, if it’s a snake it creates great fear in her and it must be immediately dealt with. I have 3 neighbors that are the same way, and one of them is a guy.
In our survey work we stress to our surveyors to look for data about how people feel since feelings and perceptions drive people’s actions to a MUCH larger degree that facts. Perception overrides reality everyday. One of my wife’s favorite expressions is “don’t confuse the issue with facts”.
Smarter than the average bear07/30/2016 at 7:31 AM #105178tractor57Participant
With all respect I have found over the years most polls are rigged. I’m sincerely hoping yours are not but I also will not participate in any poll given my history with them. Double edged sword I admit. Not calling you out just stating my issue with any polling.
A complex issue and all sides should be aired – that is my issue with HB2 – passed in haste, obvious “errors” (as in doing the masters bidding?). I have the same issues with the Charlotte ordinance.
The women in my life are against HB2 – on the grand scale means little other than all views should be explored before legislation is past.07/30/2016 at 7:55 AM #105180
Tractor, that is the exact reason the company I work for exists. Polls that sample 1000 (on the phone no less) are notoriously inaccurate. They state their margin of error is +/- 4%, we find that to be too low since there is no way they can ensure their statistical population matches real life. We prefer much larger samples and we tend to ask questions about how people feel rather than boxing their answers into a choice of two or five (normal polling methodology). I’m not saying our data is perfect by any stretch, we constantly look at our processes every day and how to improve our accuracy, but I’d bet my bottom dollar there’s not many who can provide survey data that can match what we call “percentage of reliability” for our clients. As the big boss says “do you want cheap or highly accurate?”
Smarter than the average bear
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