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Reminds me of an argument I got into with a science major friend of mine my freshman year of college.
I was arguing confidence was a huge factor when it came to making a shot, he said “nope, its the trajectory/ rotation.”
He had a point, these things make a huge difference, but confidence in sports is, IMHO, the factor that seperates the great athlete from the good one and the good one from the mediocre one.
Jigs – come on man.
You think tj lost all that weight to get a modeling gig? You’ve played sports right?
On a golf course, the par 3s almost are always ranked easiest on the course only because its a lot easier to put together 3 good shots in a row than 4 or 5 in a row. I run a 5k at a much faster pace than a 10k. I do really well (vs. The field) in a sprint triathlon, but my times don’t hold up for an Olympic one.
The bottom line is that one of the main reasons kids go pro early is because the longer you play the more your flaws are exposed. Its the same reason most rookies hit the “wall”.
Don’t let stats cloud common sense judgement.
Yep – we are definitely trending to 9-9.
Clemson evidently went to the Seth Greenberg scheduling school, but at least they didn’t lose to a couple of those crap teams (like vatech always seemed to).
As I said in other thread…we have a chance. Its not mind blowing to think of us winning 4 of our next 5 and going 1-1 in the tourney which would place us on that bubble.
Regarding the NCAA discussion and “1 win in acc tournament and we’re in”…I could see that scenario playing out. But I see it differently:
We have 6 games left. In order to feel OK about an at large bid – we must win at least 5 of those games.
Where it gets interesting for us is if we win 3 of our last 5 and advance to tourney final or if we go 10-8 and lose our second game in tourney. (We would have a very interesting selection Sunday in that case.
The bubble is very volatile. In last 2 years the line has cut off @ #51. In last dance card (before Clemson debacle) we were #50.
Also – I thought that both had a great game plan and team played perhaps its best game all year.
I thought Lewis played a great game. Team did a great job on boards.
At the half evidently the refs decided to change the way the game was being called.
I find it amusing and telling who always gets screwed in these situations. It NEVER breaks against the chosen ones. Funny huh?
Vawolf – you called our position on dance card perfectly. We won Saturday on dropped a spot due to fsu’s free fall.
Interested to see where dance card has us in next update.
I think we are on the cusp and we are definitely on the bubble.
Beat Pitt or UNC and go 10-8 in conference and I like our chances.
Its very volatile out there. We need to be pulling against Baylor, Oregon, Providence and Dayton. Pull hard for Every team we’ve played.
I hope cat’s d is as good when he leaves (hopefully in 2 years for a huge pile of $$) as it was when he arrived. His footwork is beautiful.
Rarely tuck their tales? I am not sure what you call performances vs. Duke and UVa and unc and in 2nd half vs. Pitt.
Aside from that though, I think your post is spot on. I would add that I would expect to see low iq basketball.
Go wolves – I think this team is doing everything gott is asking them to do…just like the last 2 years.
However, I will be impressed if gott can get them to the NCAA tournament.
Well they CAN shoot…if you can hit from the outside you can put up points vs. The cuse. If you can d up and keep them off the boards you can also keep it close…course we can’t do any of that.
I didn’t watch one second of this game. It was bad enough listening on the radio. However, there is no such thing as a bad conference road win. The team gutted it out.
Watching duke play BC and I swear they look about as bad on d as we do.
Good info vawolf. Tennessee has held steady….FSU OTOH. Pulling hard for noles. Of course, if we can take UNC @ home we can make some of this academic. (I would guess we can make this all Academic by winning 7 of our next 10.) We have the schedule to do it…an NCAA worthy team would go 7-3 vs. That schedule.
Regarding bubbles, LSU lost to uga last night. That’s a very good thing for us.
There is a ton of volatility on the bubble… and right now we are on the wrong side of it. However, if we win our next 2, we will be “in” on dance card (depending on what the teams right around us do.)
For reference, fsu went from being “in” solidly to being out with 2 consecutive losses.
13ot – its hard to deny that is a possibility when you look at what happened in the big east. Of course, it’s a chicken-egg discussion. Will we be shut out because we are mediocre or are we mediocre because the conference and the mother ship arent giving us the publicity/ support as the big dogs?
I tend to believe its because we suck. Hell, I am a state fan and I sometimes don’t want to watch us.
Wulfpack – we did OK out of conference, our schedule, while not worldbeating wasn’t embarrassing. The reason Katz didn’t mention us was because we are 4-5. Please just look at the rpi’s and dance card – and remember – we’re not talking about being in the top 25- we are talking about getting in as a 10-11 seed…one of last teams in.
I will trust the guys over at dance card over andy Katz. How many of the 37 at large bids did Katz get right last year?
We certainly can’t go 4-5 in the second half of the acc season.
We’ll see though – more interested in lunardi’s comments than a coach who couldn’t schedule his way to at-large bids year after year and Andy Katz.
Wulfpack – don’t forget Tennessee. We beat them AT Tenn. They are holding steady right now.
And remember, you need to play that same game (who have they beaten) with other bubble teams too. If our competition has similar issues, we will be fine.
Like I said, just look at dance card to see where they think we are.
Another item of note: real time RPI has our projected record @ 8-10 in conference. Doing better than that should give us a nice little bump…and right now that is all we need.
Just as a side note….really enjoy the bubble discussions – I have learned a ton in the last few years.
And if there is one area where gott knows what he’s doing it is scheduling.
Lrm and va wolf – I think everything hasn’t been taken in context. When I talk of 1 or 2 acc tourney wins I am considering what these will do for our RPI. (I can’t speak for others.)
I actually reduced my “magic number” for us when I saw where we were on the dance card and RPI.
Our RPI is pretty good right now and if we win 7 of our next 10, the data will have us getting an at large bid. If we win 6 of 10, we still have a decent shot.
Check out dance card, right now we are #52- the last 2 years top 51 has been cutoff line… that’s how close we are at this moment.
Va wolf – interesting thoughts on seeding. I remember arguing with folks on this board last year who thought we’d get a 6 seed that our RPI didn’t indicate that would happen.
If you peruse the dance card you will see that we are very much alive for a bid at this point. As a matter of fact, they had us “in” last Friday.
The big question is where does our RPI land if we win 6 of our next 10. If we win 7 of next 10, I am fairly confident we’d get a bid….translation: I think our RPI would be somewhere between 44-50.
Another thing to keep in mind, dance card uses old RPI formula (vs. New one that gives more points for road wins). I don’t know which formula the selection committee uses, but if dance card was 37-37, it doesn’t seem like they use the new one.
Thank you wulfpack. The man has built and sustained success and both of his schools….but I guess some guys would prefer a great salesman. Good news for 44 though is that apparently yow shares your opinion. She interviewed him and wasn’t impressed.
So far Marshall has the last laugh and is setting himself up nicely for duke or UNC depending on which geriatric coach steps down.
A couple of random thoughts:
1. Before this game we were “in” on the dance card coming in at #44. Fsu’s loss to Clemson didn’t help though.
2. We were atrocious on the defensive boards. No surprise there – we have been awful all year in this area (and it is becoming a trait of the Gottfried era.)
3. Our guys don’t get back fast enough on d…another trait.
4. We did fight back and didn’t give up.
5. Regarding next year or the year after – there is no way to think one year or the next since we will likely have plenty of early departures in the next 2 years and I doubt our coach will change his rebounding/teaching philosophy.
6. Not thrilled at all with dy leading another men’s basketball coaching search. Between the cold shoulder to Marshall and the embarrassing public meltdown, I think our options won’t be to good with her leading it.
