Predict the Games

'07 Football General NCS Football On the Record Tom O'Brien129

These are only my guesses, but now is as good a time as any to make them. Remember, these are predictions, not hopes or best case scenarios. I wouldn’t be shocked by anything between 4 and 7 regular season wins. Feel free to add your own in the comments.

Game 1: vs. Central Florida (Win; 75% confidence) – This game scares the hell out of me. UCF has a good coach, and they are a veteran team coming off a very disappointing season. O’Leary would love to beat an ACC team, and his kids will be loaded for bear. I just don’t see Tom O’Brien losing his first game as head coach.

Game 2: at Boston College (Loss; 85% confidence) – I really wanted to pick a win here, but that’s not logical (just an emotional reaction to BC fan smack-talk in the offseason). BC returns more starters than we do, and was significantly better than us last year (despite the somewhat fluky loss head-to-head). I don’t like the scrimmage reports on our QB situation, and an early road game will likely exacerbate that problem. Enjoy your gloating, Eagle fans – it will be clear after 3 seasons who won this particular coaching shuffle.

Game 3: vs. Wofford (Win; 99% confidence) – We may not be good this year, but we won’t lose to Wofford. Even under Amato, I would feel good about that (he probably would have gone 2-10, beating Wofford and FSU).

Game 4: vs. Clemson (Loss; 70% confidence) – The Tiggers should be able to dominate the Pack physically (and run hog wild against our LBs), but their coach is one of two Bowdens on the hot seat, and a complete team meltdown is not out of the question.

Game 5: vs. Louisville (Loss; 80% confidence) – Louisville might be the best opponent on NC State’s schedule, but we’ll see how much they miss Bobby Petrino. I like our chances for a huge upset if this is a night game.

Game 6: at Florida State (Loss; 90% confidence) – Again, we should be dominated physically, and our non-existent depth should be giving us trouble against deep, athletic teams by this point in the season. To borrow from my BC thoughts – enjoy your gloating, few remaining members of the “Cult of Chuck” – it will be clear after 3 seasons who won this particular coaching shuffle.

Game 7: at East Carolina (Win; 55% confidence) – Here is the game where I believe Coach O’Brien will get us a win we wouldn’t have been able to achieve without him. With an off week to get healthy and prepare, I expect the Wolfpack to do some riot prevention against the Pirates. You’re welcome, Greenville Police Department.

Game 8: vs. Virginia (Win; 60% confidence) – I expect the Cavs to be in full free-fall mode at this point, as Al Groh prepares for the firing squad. It would be much better for the game to be a week later (UVA historically sucks in November), but late October will have to do. Should be nice weather for this game, so allow for extra tailgating time.

Game 9: at Miami (Loss; 85% confidence) – This is pretty much a repeat of the FSU prediction, but the Canes are slightly less imposing physically (and sans the Amato drama).

Game 10: vs. UNC (Win; 95% confidence) – Because TOB promised us. And the alternative is unthinkable.

Game 11: at Wake Forest (Loss; 80% confidence) – Many people will predict a win here, and I agree that the Deacs won’t likely repeat their stirring title run. However, their rushing attack is a particularly bad matchup for our linebacking corps.

Game 12: vs. Maryland (Loss; 55% confidence) – I think the Pack comes very, very close to winning this game and attaining bowl eligibility, but falls just short. A lack of depth catches up with you at season’s end, and we will be coming off a bruising, physical game against Wake. The timing absolutely sucks for us.

Predicted Record: 5-7 (2-6); Mathematical Median: 5.39 wins

BJD95, on the record.

About BJD95

1995 NC State graduate, sufferer of Les and MOC during my entire student tenure. An equal-opportunity objective critic and analyst of Wolfpack sports.

'07 Football General NCS Football On the Record Tom O'Brien

129 Responses to Predict the Games

  1. LRM 08/14/2007 at 6:56 PM #

    Realists understand there are certain seasons where you measure success on the improvements made, not wins. Sid’s first basketball team is a great example; overall, that was a really bad season but what was impressive is how hard those guys fought and how much improvement they showed from early January as compared to March. In year seven (see: Amato, 2006), you better be measuring success in wins.

    Personally, I understand that the team we’re fielding this year is weak; the D-line and the O-line both have gaps and we might be starting Evans at QB (without that pass against BC, he’s likely remembered as one of the worst ACC QBs ever).

    If in December we can look back and say the dumb penalties stopped, we always played hard, and across the board we showed marked improvement, I’ll see TOB’s first season as a success.

    It wouldn’t hurt to beat the two Carolinas, either.

  2. NCSUownsJoo 08/14/2007 at 7:10 PM #

    First of all, you can’t compare basketball with football. Apples and oranges you know… If you really need my reasons for that I’ll give them but I feel thats rather obvious.

    Second, I agree that Lousiville is probably going to beat us down (double digit loss), however, I do not believe that they will be leading by 23 at halftime. I’m guessing a 10-14 point loss. Close till the fourth quarter and Louisville will come out and drop a TD on us we won’t recover from.

    Also, as much as I hate Brokeback Hill, I don’t understand how most people are seeing that game as a win. We have added almost noone in terms of recruiting the past two years. Did anybody happen to see the PLETHORA of 4 and 5 stars that *** BD brought in last year? On top of that, our record against Brokeback Hill the past couple of years, isn’t exactly stellar. I’m sure our players are quite aware of that fact. I would be thrilled to see a W in the column for that game, but I’m just not seein it. I think we can, but I don’t think we will.

  3. ncsu_kappa 08/14/2007 at 7:25 PM #

    If we get play like Skinner from Wake from our QB we will be ACC Champs this year with our squad and our coaching. With good QB play, defenses will be on their toes a little more and our O-line will look stellar. however with more of the same from the QB position, everything will be in shambles again.

    lucky lucky chicken bone…qb’s play well!

  4. highstick 08/14/2007 at 7:46 PM #

    Brokeback Hill? That’s a new, but good one! At least to me!

  5. VaWolf82 08/14/2007 at 8:27 PM #

    If we get play like Skinner from Wake from our QB

    Why would you even take the time to make a statement like this?

  6. redfred2 08/14/2007 at 9:19 PM #

    Please, do not forget noah’s “worst ever team in the ACC” basketball predictions from last season. He seems to get that way just before the season starts.

  7. theHowling 08/14/2007 at 9:27 PM #

    9-3.

  9. highstick 08/14/2007 at 10:37 PM #

    Couldn’t get the “Caveman” to open, but I’ve seen several different versions over the past 2-3 weeks and think it’s very appropriate!~

  10. choppack1 08/14/2007 at 11:28 PM #

    Here’s my thoughts on the continous bias I’m subjected to from the Winston Salem Journal and our QB search:

    http://bradburntime.blogspot.com/

  11. forst8 08/14/2007 at 11:58 PM #

    The gloom and doom is pervasive. I go with the more optimistic folks and believe we will be bowl eligible. IF, big if, we get QB straightened out, this could be a pretty good fb team.

  12. newt 08/15/2007 at 12:40 AM #

    My predictions are up. Feel free to comment on them as the season progresses.

    Bottom line, this is a season of uncertainty. Every game on our schedule is close, as usual, but I have faith in TOB who has had several 8-win seasons in a row and does not intend to break that streak now.

  13. noah 08/15/2007 at 9:31 AM #

    “Please, do not forget noah’s “worst ever team in the ACC” basketball predictions from last season. He seems to get that way just before the season starts.”

    What’s your prediction?

  14. Girlfriend in a Coma 08/15/2007 at 9:41 AM #

    To be fair, Noah predicted us to be the second-worst basketball team in ACC history, not the worst.

  15. TNCSU 08/15/2007 at 9:44 AM #

    Okay, just for kicks:

    UCF win
    BC loss
    Wofford win
    Clemson loss
    L’ville loss
    FSU loss
    ECU win
    UVa win
    Miami loss
    Wake win
    UNC win
    Md win

    That’s 7-5. We’ll win our bowl game for 8-5 overall.
    I do think we have the ability to do better than that though.

  16. lush 08/15/2007 at 11:16 AM #

    Ok, sorry! Im sure you stand behind the pack. But you also sounded like an asshole carolina fan, or someone writing a prediction in the N & O. I am a little perturbed at the notion that anyone would “predict” us to be losing by three f*ing touchdowns in a home game, at night, by halftime. Especially a state fan. We lost 4 games at home last year by an average of 4.5 points. I guess you think we will be worse this year. We have a new coach and mid level talent in the ACC. That alone will be worth a bowl under TOB. They have a new coach and top talent in the Big East(woohoo). As far as im concerned there is no logical reason to “predict” an ass whooping of that magnitude.

    I will see it first hand on whatever day they decide to play, and we will not be losing by 23 points at halftime.

  17. lush 08/15/2007 at 11:26 AM #

    “If we get play like Skinner from Wake from our QB”

    “Why would you even take the time to make a statement like this?”

    Didnt Skinner come out of nowhere as a Freshman and lead the team? Dont we have 2 unknowns at QB? Is it unfathomable that that could happen to us? Under a different coaching staff?

  18. lush 08/15/2007 at 11:50 AM #

    Pamlico: I predicted us to lose three games. That is my serious attempt. I did not take offense to the thought of losing to louisville, i took offense to the thought that we dont have a chance. a serious attempt to predict the season does not include knukleheaded yutz comments like we will be slaughtered at home by an overrated big east team with a new coach and a new system. We are not predicting last season, we are predicting this season, and that 23 point halftime nonsense is ridiculous.

  19. McPete 08/15/2007 at 12:06 PM #

    Lush,
    this years preview by the N&O was pretty good IMO. go to the accnow blog and check it out. and on that topic, i recall for the past few years the n&o’s staff have been high on the wolfpack’s talent level. whether or not they were correct is another thing.

    but louisville should be tough this year. they do have a heisman candidate at QB (and some think his back-up cantrell (sp?) is even better). many predict a top 10 finish. they have a new coach who’s done an outstanding job at Tulsa. but i also don’t anyone will blow state out, especially at home. clemson did a couple of years ago, but who else recently has done that at CF?

  20. RAWFS 08/15/2007 at 12:09 PM #

    It’s really hard to say what this team will do. We’re largely basing a lot of expectations on the play of veterans we saw in the Amato regime, and extrapolating into this year. That’s dangerous with a team using the same coaching staff, and doubly difficult with one featuring a new staff, not to mention new offensive and defensive schemes.

    That said, I will only venture that I expect improvement, and that this is a team you’d rather not face in the second half of the season.

    If they gel quickly and get breaks early, it could be far better than the cycnical predictions of many across the media. If not, the most important home game after the mid-October will be the Red-White game and basketball’s November opener.

  21. BoKnowsNCS71 08/15/2007 at 12:10 PM #

    After reading TOB comments about how our defense beat up and intercepted our QB candidiates, I have to hope that we have an exceptional pass defense — instead of no QB talent. IF the former is True then Louisville’s Brohm had better watch out. Although I have a big L on that game. A blow out could deflate this teams tenuous stability.

  22. VaWolf82 08/15/2007 at 12:19 PM #

    Dont we have 2 unknowns at QB?

    No, they’re not unknowns. We know that neither one has beat out DE for the starting position. And from the scrimmage stats, it is not hard to see why.

    This year is shaping up like the 2005 season…without the accolades for the defense. We knew that the QB position was weak in 2004. We knew that the back-up could not beat out the 2004 starter…..thus we knew that QB play would be weak again.

  23. CaptainCraptacular 08/15/2007 at 1:10 PM #

    *a serious attempt to predict the season does not include knukleheaded yutz comments like we will be slaughtered at home by an overrated big east team with a new coach and a new system.*

    In all seriousness, I sincerely hope I am dead wrong. When the game occurs, I will not be pulling for Louisville to lead by 23, I will be pulling for the pack all the way. If Louisville does blow us out, which I anticipate happening, I won’t be on here saying I told you so, I will be extremely disappointed and probably avoid message boards for a few days.

    But I have to say this: Whats really knuckleheaded is believing a team is overrated when they have done pretty much everything they can do to prove otherwise. By all means, please continue to mistakenly believe that just because the Cardinals have a new coach, that they are also using a brand new offensive system. (Kragthorpe is keeping the same O with minor tweaks.) Please ignore just how good Brohm is, Mel Kiper’s projected #1 QB in the NFL draft (which is WAY different than just saying he’s a Heisman candidate). Please ignore the talent that Louisville has sent to the NFL the last 2 years and please also continue to believe they don’t have any more NFL caliber talent stepping in to the spots that have left. Please continue to discredit Wake Forest’s season last year when you discount Louisville’s win over a ‘weak’ Deacons team. Please disqualify Louisville’s destruction of ‘mid-level talent’ Miami last year at the beginning of the year, because Miami collapsed mid-season. Please don’t get that the only other team to beat Miami as bad as Louisville in the last decade was LSU. Please underestimate Louisville’s schedule, that they were just beating up on bad Big East teams, the conference that had the highest win % in bowls last year, and beat the ACC like 6-1 in games played last year, the only win being VT over Cincinnati.

    Also, please continue to ignore that our team has suffered a significant talent drain over the course of 2+ years that has not been replenished, at least not this year. Please continue to think that we still have top 3 ACC level talent. Please discount our totally shaky situation at OL and QB, believing that that will all be masked by our all-world talent at Tailback. Please ignore that guys on our D have not played a zone since they arrived in Raleigh and they are going to be asked to do that which they are extremely green and unfamiliar. Please continue to believe that our TE performance won’t suffer moving from an all-ACC TE to a converted QB in his spot.

    By all means, please believe that there is absolutely no logical basis in reality for believing that Louisville will not beat us badly. Its just better when you stick you head in the sand.

  24. lush 08/15/2007 at 1:40 PM #

    ^ i said mid level talent in the acc. i also said that i wouldnt be suprised if we lost. and i still say, despite your long post about how great louisville is, and the other words that you have put in my posting mouth, that they are not going to blow us out at our house.

    would you put your money on it? state +23 at the half, and you would take louisivlle? i’d have to have kick my own ass not to take that action.

  25. waxhaw 08/15/2007 at 1:40 PM #

    ^ OK now I really am depressed and I can’t really argue with too much of that to boot.

    However, I think we have a shot at a bowl. I am hopeful that our new staff will do a better job of the following to potentially get us to 6-6:

    1) Reduce penalties, which result in longer fields for offense.

    2) Create more turnovers which would also help the offense on a short field.

    3) Do a better job of play calling to protect our quarteback. I think we can be more conservative and reduce the amount of difficult passes that a mediocre quarterback would have to make. (and therefore reduce turnovers)

    4) Lastly, non coach related, a couple of what i would call our toss up games are at home. Hopefully the home field advantage gets us over the top. (4 of 6 are home versus Clemson, ECU, VA, UNC, Wake and MD)

    There was an article on espn a while back that talked about the statistical probability of teams winning close games. It basically said that most teams with high penalties and negative turnover margins greatly improve on those the following year. Those two things result in winning more close games. I hope he was right!

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