Predict the Games

'07 Football General NCS Football On the Record Tom O'Brien129

These are only my guesses, but now is as good a time as any to make them. Remember, these are predictions, not hopes or best case scenarios. I wouldn’t be shocked by anything between 4 and 7 regular season wins. Feel free to add your own in the comments.

Game 1: vs. Central Florida (Win; 75% confidence) – This game scares the hell out of me. UCF has a good coach, and they are a veteran team coming off a very disappointing season. O’Leary would love to beat an ACC team, and his kids will be loaded for bear. I just don’t see Tom O’Brien losing his first game as head coach.

Game 2: at Boston College (Loss; 85% confidence) – I really wanted to pick a win here, but that’s not logical (just an emotional reaction to BC fan smack-talk in the offseason). BC returns more starters than we do, and was significantly better than us last year (despite the somewhat fluky loss head-to-head). I don’t like the scrimmage reports on our QB situation, and an early road game will likely exacerbate that problem. Enjoy your gloating, Eagle fans – it will be clear after 3 seasons who won this particular coaching shuffle.

Game 3: vs. Wofford (Win; 99% confidence) – We may not be good this year, but we won’t lose to Wofford. Even under Amato, I would feel good about that (he probably would have gone 2-10, beating Wofford and FSU).

Game 4: vs. Clemson (Loss; 70% confidence) – The Tiggers should be able to dominate the Pack physically (and run hog wild against our LBs), but their coach is one of two Bowdens on the hot seat, and a complete team meltdown is not out of the question.

Game 5: vs. Louisville (Loss; 80% confidence) – Louisville might be the best opponent on NC State’s schedule, but we’ll see how much they miss Bobby Petrino. I like our chances for a huge upset if this is a night game.

Game 6: at Florida State (Loss; 90% confidence) – Again, we should be dominated physically, and our non-existent depth should be giving us trouble against deep, athletic teams by this point in the season. To borrow from my BC thoughts – enjoy your gloating, few remaining members of the “Cult of Chuck” – it will be clear after 3 seasons who won this particular coaching shuffle.

Game 7: at East Carolina (Win; 55% confidence) – Here is the game where I believe Coach O’Brien will get us a win we wouldn’t have been able to achieve without him. With an off week to get healthy and prepare, I expect the Wolfpack to do some riot prevention against the Pirates. You’re welcome, Greenville Police Department.

Game 8: vs. Virginia (Win; 60% confidence) – I expect the Cavs to be in full free-fall mode at this point, as Al Groh prepares for the firing squad. It would be much better for the game to be a week later (UVA historically sucks in November), but late October will have to do. Should be nice weather for this game, so allow for extra tailgating time.

Game 9: at Miami (Loss; 85% confidence) – This is pretty much a repeat of the FSU prediction, but the Canes are slightly less imposing physically (and sans the Amato drama).

Game 10: vs. UNC (Win; 95% confidence) – Because TOB promised us. And the alternative is unthinkable.

Game 11: at Wake Forest (Loss; 80% confidence) – Many people will predict a win here, and I agree that the Deacs won’t likely repeat their stirring title run. However, their rushing attack is a particularly bad matchup for our linebacking corps.

Game 12: vs. Maryland (Loss; 55% confidence) – I think the Pack comes very, very close to winning this game and attaining bowl eligibility, but falls just short. A lack of depth catches up with you at season’s end, and we will be coming off a bruising, physical game against Wake. The timing absolutely sucks for us.

Predicted Record: 5-7 (2-6); Mathematical Median: 5.39 wins

BJD95, on the record.

About BJD95

1995 NC State graduate, sufferer of Les and MOC during my entire student tenure. An equal-opportunity objective critic and analyst of Wolfpack sports.

'07 Football General NCS Football On the Record Tom O'Brien

129 Responses to Predict the Games

  1. noah 08/13/2007 at 3:23 PM #

    The 1986 NC State team had two future NFL first-round draft picks on it, an NFL QB, two other receivers who played at least one year in the NFL and an NFL kicker.

    There was a reason that team did well.

  2. PamlicoPack 08/13/2007 at 3:34 PM #

    ^^
    I had forgotten about Cofer…his 49-yd FG as time expired pulled out a tie with Pitt, who was top 20 at the time…

    I will be extremely aggravated if Special Teams is a problem this year. There were no surprises about whatshisname, our kicker last year (i.e. prematurely ended career due to injury or discipline issues), so they have had at least three years to plan this succession. I haven’t read much about the punter, kicker and long snapper, but I will be very disappointed if we have people trying to fill those roles this season without at least a couple of seasons of practice…

  3. waxhaw 08/13/2007 at 3:39 PM #

    I wouldn’t call 6-6 a pessimistic outlook. In fact given our history the last few years, the difficulty of the schedule, a new offensive coordinator for the QB and OL to learn, yet again, I’d call 6-6 an outstanding job if we can get there.

  4. packpower 08/13/2007 at 4:02 PM #

    I think the season is no worse than 4-8 and no better than 8-4. What I do think is certain is that O’Brien is worth between two and four wins over Amato.

    The 1986 team also had three receivers – Worthen, Peebles and Jeffries who played in the NFL. Peebles would have played many years in the NFL if he didn’t suffer a career ending injury.

    The 1986 team also faced easier competition as the ACC wasn’t known for football. The two league powers of the 1980s were hurting as Maryland was in the midst of the Len Bias tragedy and Clemson had just ended its probation.

    6-6 will be a good finish this year.

  5. ncsu_kappa 08/13/2007 at 5:18 PM #

    I’m with Noah on this one all the way. Coaching probably won’t fix our QB problems and O-Line depth is almost certain to bite us. LB we are shallow but with exception of FSU who has millions of them anyway who really loses LB’s all that often. I’ll roll the dice there. I’ll go on a limb and say that our defense is still good but will face more than average possesions like usual, and our offense will be crucified by poor QB play…which we’ll say is attributable to poor lineman play. I think the lineman will get it together before we get Glennon in there though. I hope we get someone good enough to buy him a redshirt year. (Burke please step up, or Russell Wilson, I’m not counting you out yet either)

    D. Evans – you lost me during the UNC game last year.
    Beck – Maybe he belongs at Juco, he could tear it up there.
    Wilson and Burke please combine to give us 2 good years…pretty please and I wouldn’t be mad with three.

  6. RochesterRedWolf 08/13/2007 at 5:24 PM #

    mcpete, but wake never offered him. Ive read too where he “talked with Wake and Tulsa” but that’s not the same as an offer. All the recruiting services keep up with who does and doesn’t get offers. You have to remember too that in 2004 coming out of High School, Evans was 6-2 and about 170lbs or something like that, more of a pt/shooting guard than an ACC QB (which he was a decent bball player at broughton ive read).

    I hope whoever gets the QB job tears it up and throws for 400 yds a game and AB and TB get 100 yds each a game, and if its D.Evans all the better.

  7. newt 08/13/2007 at 5:35 PM #

    UCF – win, but one of the toughest games on the schedule. Experienced team + solid coaching.

    BC – win. They took a step back in coaching and might struggle to get their act together.

    Wofford – win. It’s Wofford

    Clemson – win. This is the game we often lost for stupid errors. They may have trouble scoring this year.

    L’ville – win. Petrino has moved on. Think UNC after Mack Brown.

    FSU – loss. Still the most talent in the ACC.

    ECU – win. Still not as talented as anyone in the ACC.

    UVa – win. Groh just isn’t getting it done.

    Miami – win. Way overrated. Randy Shannon?

    Wake – win. Wake will be better than last year but won’t win near as many games.

    UNC – loss. They won’t be as good as us, but they always play their best against us.

    Md – loss. The Fridge has quietly built a nice program.

  8. kool k 08/13/2007 at 6:28 PM #

    Gingrich?

  9. vtpackfan 08/13/2007 at 6:48 PM #

    “Remember, these are predictions”

    Don’t have any on wins vs. losses, but here some others I would like to let rip.

    1) We hit the elusive 24(+) point margin multiple occasions on offense.

    2) Opposing teams don’t call out the play we are trying to execute before the ball is snapped with such regularity.

    3) DB will do something amazing on a punt or KO return, then let his emotions get the best of him and get a fifteen yarder walked off on us. He will be absent from the next special teams assignment and that will be the end of that.

    4) Our defense will be strong, even superb for brief stretchs. They will allow some long drives once in awhile, but alot of fg’s mostly.

    5) We will see three different QB’s start games this season.

  10. packpigskinfan23 08/13/2007 at 6:53 PM #

    I have a feeling that Logan is gonna use every trick play in his book and throw the ball about 500 times when we travel to BC this year… They are gonna want to make TOB look BAD.

    I am just glad to know he wont let that happen

    🙂

  11. Pack1998 08/13/2007 at 7:57 PM #

    7-5 – Win a few we ain’t supposed to win, maybe BC, Wake and Maryland. We’ll drop one we shouldn’t, probably UVA or UNC.

  12. choppack1 08/13/2007 at 9:07 PM #

    Yep – we could be a better team and have a worse record. I’ve gotta say, I’ll call the season a success if we beat UNC and ECU.

  13. Delete-Me 08/13/2007 at 9:10 PM #

    Is anyone at all a little intrigued by the interceptions our defense is piling up?

    That’s definitely a difference from last year. Not sure if that is a result of our QBs, or if our defense is better, but let’s say it is the latter. That’s got to counter any QB/OL question marks at this point.

  14. noah 08/13/2007 at 10:29 PM #

    Intrigued?

    “Horrified” is the word I’d use.

  15. highstick 08/13/2007 at 10:30 PM #

    I haven’t looked at what Wofford has this year, but they are not going to be a “pushover”. I watched them grind out a very consistent game last year in Columbia against the Gamecocks. We should beat them, but don’t count out a close game. Remember Wofford is “where the SAT scores are higher than the student enrollment”, so they play a very smart conservative game.

    I wish I could be as confident as you guys about UNC and ECU and hope you’re right. I just don’t like to do predictions because “my hopes” always get in the way.

  16. packwolf90 08/14/2007 at 12:00 AM #

    i think 6-6 is my prediction.

    but we can go 1-11 as long as we beat kurlina

  17. theHowling 08/14/2007 at 12:24 AM #

    UCF – W
    BC – W
    Wofford – W
    Clemson – L
    Louisville – W
    FSU – W
    ECU – W
    UVA – W
    Miami – L
    UNC – L
    Wake Forest – W
    Maryland – W

    9-3

  18. bTHEredterror 08/14/2007 at 4:12 AM #

    UCF-2 score W-They will give us a fair test, the game will be tight like Akron, but we pull away late instead in allow them to get back in.
    BC-close L-A tough loss, but we will see what our fellas are made of. I bet we give ’em all they can handle and fall short.
    Wofford- W-
    Clemson- Close L-This is the turning point. I think they are too far ahead this early for us to beat them. But they have had some struggles with Run “d” the past few years, and with us a time or two I can recall.
    Louisville-close W-This is the game where Archer’s Zone scheme pays off big time. They have a solid team, but they have been caught in early season road games, specifically USF in ‘05 and ‘03.We get up on them early and hold on.
    FSU-2 score L-The ‘Noles will hold us down pretty well, as Chuck will know a few schemes to cause problems, but it won’t be an old-school Tomahawk slap down either.
    ECU-2 score W- By this time they will have horrified Hole fans the world round with a thorough thrashing, and been beaten soundly by Va Tech, WVU, and Southern Miss. And they will be returning off a cross country brawl with Mike Price’s Utep. While we stew in the FSU loss for two weeks.
    Virginia-Close W- We will get them like they got us last year, TO’s. They are gonna be tougher than people think in the Coastal. Sewell is a tough player.
    Miami-L- I really have no idea at this point. If this years U is like last year’s, we can sneak in and steal one. But they are coming off a two week rest after the FSU game, it will be tough.
    UNC-close W-They will be ready to play as much as we will. But we have a few more players on the offensive side to pull out the close win on our home field, which will be rocking..
    WF–W-They are coming home for Senior Day after back to back road trips to UVA and Clemson. They will be playing inspired to complete a second bowl run, and then….guess who gets to tip-over whose apple cart now? Good luck with Vandy for the Bosie Bowl sojourn.
    Maryland-L-Oh yeah, Maryland will tip over ours. They have a solid D a year older and a few solid running backs. We get demoted in bowl status, at 7-5, Tire Bowl here we come again.

  19. RedTerror29 08/14/2007 at 7:37 AM #

    Newt, did you really just compare Steve Kragthorpe to Carl Torbush? Louisville has a legitimate possible #1 pick in the NFL draft next year at QB and plenty of talent to surround him. I’d feel even worse about the game if it was at Papa John stadium. Their one weakness for an early season game, a new system, is nullified by the fact we have a new system as well.

  20. graywolf 08/14/2007 at 7:38 AM #

    BJD95……you are a realist. I like that about people.
    I also concur with your thinking but one aspect that haunted Amato was his lack of abililty to recruit offensive linemen.
    I repeat this over and over………..you cannot win with an offensive line that is weak and thin and we have both.
    QB’s are a problem but OL is a greater problem and will cause us many heartaches this year.
    Isn’t it ironic that we may have the 3 best tailbacks in the league but one of the poorest OL’s.
    Go figure.
    I think your 5-7 assessment is correct.

  21. NCSUownsJoo 08/14/2007 at 7:56 AM #

    I want what some of you guys have been smoking… 9-3? 8-4? Are you guys insane? You do realize we got our butts handed to us on a silver platter all of last year don’t you?

    You also realize that the same quarterback that started that entire horrific season is most likely going to be the starter in this one as well right? If he gets pulled, the only other QB’s we might put in is Burke who has absolutely no experience and had avg. stat lines at scrimmages, or Beck who has very little game experience and retardedly bad stat lines like 3-26 in the scrimmages.

    You also know that we got very little if ANY help in our recruiting class from last year to this year?

    We have horrible depth. Yes we have depth and a large amount of talent at the RB position, but if your OL can’t runblock, that doesn’t help very much does it? I think our coaching staff will teach our OLinemen to block, but it’s going to take more than one offseason to do it. They will get better, but not good enough to make a huge impact.

    I’m saying 4-5 wins. If TOBy can pull 6 wins out of this hat, I’ll be very impressed.

    Next year and year 3 is when you will see a much needed improvement, on the stat sheet and on the win/lose column.

  22. wufpaxno1 08/14/2007 at 8:45 AM #

    “Intrigued”, “Horrified”, come on guys. The biggest reason for the large increase in the number of interceptions is the switch from press man to zone coverage. Boston College lead the league in interceptions last year and our secondary has a lot more talent then they did. The zone lets them play facing the line of scrimmage and allows them to get good reads on the ball. I am not saying that our quarterbacks are going to burn it up, but I do expect that they will be more consistent in a much more conservative offense. But you have to give our secondary credit; they are going to be the back bone of this team in 2007. I don’t think 6 or even 7 wins are an unreasonable expectation, but no matter what happens, I am going to enjoy this year. GO PACK!

  23. primacyone 08/14/2007 at 9:52 AM #

    25-9 overall 11-5 in the league with wins over UNX and DUKE

    Tied for second in the league. We win the ACC Tournament and get a Number 4 seed to the NCAA Tournament.

  24. pakfanistan 08/14/2007 at 10:02 AM #

    UCF – W
    BC – W
    Wofford – W
    Clemson – W
    Louisville – W
    FSU – W
    ECU – W
    UVA – W
    Miami – W
    UNC – W
    Wake Forest – W
    Maryland – W

    12-0 + 2…

    ACC Champ. – W
    Nat. Champ. – W

  25. primacyone 08/14/2007 at 10:07 AM #

    Forgot about 3 wins in the NCAA tounament, so we go 28-9 overall and make the sweeet 16. Costner and Hickson stick around and we make the Final Four the next year.

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