03/08/2015 at 6:08 PM #7831703/08/2015 at 6:22 PM #78319WulfpackParticipant
We are in a tough position because UVa and Duke are locks for a 1 seed. If we are seeded 8th or 9th (which most have us there as it stands today), the committee isn’t going to match us up with the Cavs or Devils in the round of 32. So we’d draw either Kentucky or Nova. Obviously, we’d much rather see Nova.03/08/2015 at 6:29 PM #78322
I’m telling ya, we will get Kentucky. The committee wants to screw Calipari, and if they can’t do that, at least sweat him and get good TV ratings for CBS.
That means the toughest, most athletic 8/9, which would be us. Plus, what a storyline. Pack vs. Shadow Pack(tm). Maybe Nantz will interview me?03/08/2015 at 6:38 PM #78323
If all of that is true — and it’s logical reasoning — then the Duke game on Thursday is incredibly important. With a win, Duke drops off the #1 seed (probably) and in any case, we probably move up off the seeds of death.
Honestly, I would rather see us a #10 over an 8/9 or even better, a #7. I’ll wait on the indefatigable analysis of VaWolf and Jigawatt, but I would prefer not to see our season end at the hands of an unpaid* NBADL team.
* over the table.03/08/2015 at 6:49 PM #78324
We would be so excited and/or overwhelmed by the notion of playing in the biggest game in recent program history…that we’d surely shit the bed in the 8/9 matchup.
I mean…Wolven Psychology 101, eh?03/08/2015 at 6:50 PM #78325
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>ryebread wrote:</div>
The question I have is whether JB flies the finger to the NCAA and retires now, whether he decides to stick out the whole set of sanctions to turn over a better situation to the next coach, or whether he coaches one more year and hangs it up. If he does the first or the latter, I suspect Syracuse will struggle a bit to find a successor.
My understanding is that they have already identified Boeheim’s successor. His assistant who handled the press conference, Mike Hopkins, is the head coach in waiting.
Bayhime will stay around to see if he can get enough vacated wins back to be within reach of 1000. If he doesn’t get enough back, he’s gone.03/08/2015 at 6:51 PM #78326
Against a super-motivated team led by our former starting PG? Yeah, that would be an easy one to poop out and go home quietly.03/08/2015 at 6:53 PM #78328
The rest of Lunardi’s bracket specifics is just a guess. It’s only the KY nexus I fear is locked in stone unless we beat Duke.03/08/2015 at 7:00 PM #78344
I took a look at the Bracket Matrix this afternoon and the 9-10 line is the most popular spot for us right now. I think the 7-8 lines are a stretch without making the conference finals.
I had the thought last night that in the State/Duke/cheats round robin State and Duke each went 2-1 and the Cheats went 1-3. We are the only one that beat each of the other members of the Big Four at least once.03/08/2015 at 7:13 PM #78359
I like how we match up with Duke generally, but they are really cooking with gas right now. I’m not sure how we beat them without a pretty near flawless offensive game.03/08/2015 at 7:19 PM #78362Heelh8rParticipant
^Yipes we got to get by Pitt first.03/08/2015 at 7:21 PM #78364MrPlywoodParticipant
I had the thought last night that in the State/Duke/cheats round robin State and Duke each went 2-1 and the Cheats went 1-3.
Had that thought too night Tex, made me smile.
Dook looked tough against the Holes. Hit some dagger threes toward the end, and made a ton of FTs down the stretch. That game reminded of State’s beatdown of the Holes – State didn’t score as much, but made timely baskets and backed it up with tough defence and forced turnovers. Jones was using the same controlled speed, stops and starts, that Cat did. That really boggles the Hole big men. I see a short run in the NCAA for UNCCH.03/08/2015 at 7:21 PM #78365WulfpackParticipant
I think Duke is still a 1 even with a loss to us.03/08/2015 at 7:30 PM #78370
Yes, Duke and UVA can’t lose their 1 seeds, no matter what.
I know we could easily lose to Pitt. It’s a good matchup for us, but we are emotionally drained. Just a hypothetical based on what it would take to get off the 8/9 line.03/08/2015 at 7:35 PM #78374MrPlywoodParticipant
but we are emotionally drained
Though it seems that State is playing with house money, so it will be interesting to see how that impacts the game.03/08/2015 at 7:37 PM #78375
Add to the intrigue the belief Pitt must have that they need to play their way in. We represent their first obstacle in getting to that goal.
Thing is, even with a loss, we may be okay, because we might drop to the 10 seed. Steal the higher seed’s side of the bracket, as Jimmy V used to say.03/08/2015 at 7:38 PM #78376bill.onthebeachParticipant
The Pitt game will be close…
but we should win the second half…
Four of our top eight players have never been to an ACC Tournament…
They will be “excited”…
Dook is a whole different deal.
Remember…. Coach Rat “sat and watched” the second half in the PNC…
That won’t happen again.
Plus… Okafor gets the press…
but Winslow and T.Jones ain’t freshmen no more…and they are the difference in Dook at the beginning of the season and Dook at the end of the season.#NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!03/08/2015 at 7:54 PM #78377
With the South Regional returning to H-Town, I don’t care about our seed. I just want the Pack slotted for Houston.03/08/2015 at 8:06 PM #78379GowolvesParticipant
I may be in the minority but if we have to play KY (assuming we win the first game) there is no better time to play them. Coming off a beating of the 16th seed will be helpful for us. Also they do not rebound well on the offensive glass and I think we could give them a scare. Do I think we would win? No, but I think we would have a punchers chance.03/08/2015 at 8:07 PM #78381
Okafor – rotate Anya and Freeman on him. Make him work very hard for everything…he is a freshman and he has been at the freshman wall for a few games. I realize we won’t be able to completely stop him, but slowing him down and not let him be the easy 2 pt outlet is key.
Winslow and T.Jones – Cat Barber should be able to disrupt T. Jones. Winslow is the one I worry about, but if possible, bait him into making the silly fouls that he is so prone to. Lacey will have his hands full.
If you noticed I didn’t mention Abu that’s for a reason. He’s our wildcard as is Martin. If they have really good games then we should be in good shape.
Keep in mind Duke is not that deep and that we are deeper than them. Keep it close, rotate a lot of players and steal minutes for the starters and we should be in the game at the end with a chance to win.
The trick is slowing down Duke’s transition game and to make them work hard in the halfcourt. Giving them easy transition baskets or getting into a track meet game in the 80’s or above is a blueprint for losing to them.
But we have to beat Pitt first and relegate them to the NIT once and for all. Looking past them would be a HUGE mistake and it is one that the coaching staff must hammer home over and over again. A first half like the one against BC or Clemson at home will literally send the Pack home to await the selection show.03/08/2015 at 8:16 PM #78385bill.onthebeachParticipant
The “trick” is to get Lacey, Abu and both Martins to play their first ACC tournament as ithey had been there a couple times…
not like “rookies”…
As far as Dook goes… you’re right… Okafor gets his 18-20pts and his 10 rebounds…. but they are not at key points in the game…
they are spread out…
Stop Jones, Keep Winslow off balance …
But does that mean Turner is guarding Cook?#NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!03/08/2015 at 8:17 PM #78386
We’d have a 5-10% shot against KY, which is about 10 times what a comparable 8/9 would have.03/08/2015 at 8:18 PM #78387wufpup76Keymaster
If we make the conference tourney finals we are a lock for a #7 or higher.
We’re closer to the 7-line now than many are guessing. If it was selected today, I’d say 8-line … tons of good wins, but a lot of losses. Beat Pitt, and we may get on the 7-line regardless of what happens against Duke.
There are 32 auto-qualifiers of 68 teams now, and 36 at-large bids.
For the sake of argument, let’s establish some definitions and assumptions about how the field is seeded. This isn’t exactly how it works, but it’s close enough to accurate to make some points:
– The 13-16 lines are typically populated by low-major auto-qualifiers and those lines constitute 18 teams now with the field moving to 68 teams and four 16-seeds facing off in a play-in format (the other two 16 seeds are slotted in the round of 64).
– The 10-12 lines are typically the true ‘bubble’ teams – just in the field. This is 14 teams with an additional 11-seed and 12-seed. The bottom two 11-seeds face off in a play-in game, and the bottom two 12-seeds have a play-in game. Of the 36 at-large selections, these are rankings 23-36.
The question to ask is “Where does State’s resume/profile rank among the 36 at-large teams?”. Is it in the bottom 14? If so, the seeding will range from the 10 to 12-lines.
Anything above the bottom 14 at-large profiles normally means a 9-seed or better. Using the above definitions and assumptions, rankings 19-22 constitute the 9-line. Rankings 15-18 constitute the 8-line, and rankings 11-14 constitute the 7-line.
So, does State’s profile rank among the top 14 of the 36 at-large selections? If so, a 7-seed or higher is likely.
Keep in mind that the conference tourneys have a big impact on where auto-qualifiers and at-larges are seeded – so it will almost never work out as neatly as the assumptions made above do. The key is “Where does State rank among the 36 at-larges?” Right now, State’s profile blows a lot of others who are being considered straight out of the water. The key wins that State possesses are hard to duplicate even at the top of the 36 at-large selections. So, this is my long-winded way of saying ‘State is a lot closer to the 7-line than appears’ :).
Also, there’s a reasonable chance that State could win the ACC tournament. What is State’s ceiling for seeding? It could be as high as the 4 or 5-line … A few years ago, Asshole Williams and Maryland entered the ACC tournament on the bubble. After beating the 3-seed, and then 2-seed State (thanks Larry Rose) and 1-seed Duke on the way to the ACC title Maryland captured a 4-seed in the NCAA tournament that season. Things can and will vary wildly this coming week.03/08/2015 at 8:20 PM #78388wufpup76Keymaster
Also agree that Duke is still on the 1-line even with a loss to State in the quarters. They (edit!) could fall off the 1-line with a loss to Pitt in the quarters.03/08/2015 at 8:25 PM #78389JeremyHParticipant
I may be in the minority but if we have to play KY (assuming we win the first game) there is no better time to play them. Coming off a beating of the 16th seed will be helpful for us. Also they do not rebound well on the offensive glass and I think we could give them a scare. Do I think we would win? No, but I think we would have a punchers chance.
If that game were to happen, it would be good exposure, as long as we hold our own. That said I hope we’re ready for Pitt.
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