08/14/2014 at 10:26 AM #54216
One of the most wonderful things about being blog illuminati – you get to show the entire world just how stupid you are, but with only a select handful (who already knew that) actually knowing your name.
With that in mind, your benevolent Stalinists at SFN are putting their non-money where our thumbs and/or index fingers are. Each week of the college football season, we will pick 5 games of our choosing, against the spread. There are only two caveats. First, if/when State plays, we must make that one of our five. Local interest!! Second, each prognosticator MUST be consistent in the source of his betting lines.
Posters are welcome to add their own, but I can only commit to tabulating the W/L records of the mods. So…keep your own score, like in golf or old-school bowling.
In honor of personal hero Dan Kane, I will be using the N&O sports page. I am old enough to still enjoy the morning paper with a cup of coffee in my best-thinking room. All lines for the following idiotic picks are from the 14 August edition:
Texas A&M (+10.5) at South Cakalaky
They’ve been recruiting like gangbusters in Aggieland (demonstrating the value of joining the SEC), and the Chickens are never great shakes on offense.
Ole Miss (-10) vs. Boise State
I think Chris Petersen left because the Broncos are about to fall off a cliff. I think there’s a prop bet on Boise’s total wins at 10 regular season, would totally take the under there. Johnny Reb is going to be very good.
Temple (+16) at Vandy
Vandy will collapse like a mini-Boise. In any event, 16 is too many for a team replacing its best offensive pieces. Temple is a mudder team that can easily hang around and lose by 10 or so.
Georgia (-8) vs. Clemson
The Tiggers always put their best foot forward against SEC foes. Each team replaces major, major pieces on offense. Despite that, I expect the better coached team, playing at home, and with SEC talent throughout the two deep, to at least win by 10. There have been rumblings that Clemson will be this year’s “oh, how the mighty have fallen” team, and I could certainly see that happening.
Georgia Southern (+22.5) at NC State
We have a QB this year, but otherwise mostly the same team that should have lost to Richmond (a much worse 1-AA foe) last year. They should gash us on the ground, dominate time of possession, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they won outright.
** NOTE for stupid people – That does not mean I think Georgia Southern is likely to win. But yes, I think it’s a possibility in the 15-20% range. As such, more than 3 TDs is an absurd line, from a probability standpoint. My “median outcome” prediction for this game would be something like NC State 30, Georgia Southern 21. For they have no Smooth Operator.08/14/2014 at 12:21 PM #54219
Louisiana-Monroe (+2.5) vs Wake Forest
In 2013 the Warhawks came to Winston-Salem and dealt the Deacs a 2 pt home loss. With a relocated Pete Thomas (yes, THAT Pete Thomas) under center, ULM ‘upsets’ a bad Wake team at home to open 2014.
Miami (+3.5) at Louisville
This one is just a ‘feeling’ pick I guess. A Bridgewater/Strong-less Louisville’s ACC opener (at home, no less) won’t go as well as expected against a Miami squad which has been largely overlooked, despite a f-ck ton of talent.
Georgia (-8) vs Clemson
My almost alma mater vs those damned Tiggers. Both have to reload. UGa has more ammo to reload with and a staff that is more accustomed to doing so. Plus they’re between the hedges for this one. What could go wrong?
Florida State (-17.5) vs Okie State (Arlington, TX)
The ‘Noles will likely lose focus and stub their collective toe somewhere along the line in 2014 on their quest to repeat (and frankly, I don’t even think they’ll make the 4 team playoff). But that stumble won’t come vs the Cowboys in Arlington.
Georgia Southern (+22.5) at NC State
The Pack should hopefully be at least a bit more consistent offensively. The obvious question is will they be any better at stopping anyone? With that jury still out, 22.5 is waaaaaayyyy too big.08/14/2014 at 1:18 PM #54220JackWolfKeymaster
NC State vs Ga Southern (-22.5) – There is no doubt I am one of the few optimists still left around here and I think we’ll be much improved on both sides of the ball. Ga Southern lost its coach and will be implementing a scheme away from the triple option days of the past. Although they have skill talent, we should dominate the lines.
Ohio State vs Navy (-17.5) – I’m not sure why this line is so close. Ohio St returns a potent offense and has more than enough to out athlete Navy on the D. Buckeyes roll
Alabama vs West Va (-26.6) – I hate picking lines this big but Bama will smoke those mountain folk. Holgerson will be fired at the end of the year.
FSU vs Ok St (-17.5) – I think this game will tell us how good (or bad) FSU is going to be this year. I think they’ll be pretty damn good.
UCLA @ UVA (-21.5) – There are better games to pick but I think this one is intriguing. One of the Pac-10/12 favorites flying to the east coast to play bottom of the barrel UVA team. Wahoos will probably cover the spread but who wants to see that? Go Bruins.
Other games of interest – Wake vs ULM (ULM), LSU vs Wisc (LSU), UGA vs Clemson (Clemson)08/14/2014 at 1:55 PM #54221
Is this FSU’s only loseable game? Probably, unless Bobby Petrino really has sold his soul to Old Scratch.08/14/2014 at 4:09 PM #54222RickKeymaster
Being a self professed football ignoramus I will make picks based on the tried and true “eany meany miny mo” method.
Ga So. pack – I am not sure we can even score 23 points.
Georgia +8 Clemson — I am feeling some ACC pride. I think CU wins it out right, unless Auburn buys themselves another Heisman winner
Notre Dame +23 1/2 Rice – If the Irish cannot beat a side dish by 50 they should close up shop
Washington 15 1/2 at Hawaii I think UW is hung over from too much Poi and sore from fire dancing
Texus +24 North Texas I believe the coach when he says Smack Brownie left a mess.08/15/2014 at 8:21 AM #542261.21 JigawattsKeymaster
Now for my chance to show how little I have kept up with other schools over the last year.
UNLV (+24) @Arizona (Friday 8/29 10:30pm)
Rich Rod’s offense just isn’t working and now he needs to find replacements at key positions. UNLV is retooling and breaking in a new QB but has 2 really good WR’s to sling it to.
App. State (+34.5) @Michigan (Saturday 8/30 12:00pm)
Michigan’s offense has the potential to put up big points but you just never know if they’ll show up to do that. I know nothing about App St but I’m venturing a guess they can keep it under 5 TD’s.
Georgia Southern (+22.5) @NC State (12:30pm)
If there’s one thing we know it’s that State couldn’t do squat with the ball last year. I’m not saying they won’t be able to figure it out but to expect Brissett and the rest of the team to do so in the first game is just too much.
Clemson (+8) @Georgia (5:30pm)
I’ve got to pick this one for the wife’s sake, or should I say for mine. She’d kill me if I didn’t pick her beloved Bulldogs. This time though I agree. Clemson is having to replace way too many parts to have their stuff together for an opening game between the hedges.
Wisconsin (+4.5) LSU (9:00pm)
The Mad Hatter. Big Lights. You know something crazy is going to happen. LSU just has better athletes than the Badgers and with Cam Cameron as OC I see points being put up on the board. Wisconsin just won’t be able to match LSU’s speed and thus keep close enough.08/15/2014 at 9:41 AM #54227
TobaccoRdShow’s picks, from the Great State of Maine:
Georgia (-8) v. Clemson -> Taking the Dawgs to cover
LSU (-4.5) v. Wisconsin -> Tigers. Not even close. Would still take them at a 10 point differential.
UCLA (-21.5) @ Virginia -> Taking the Cavs to cover at home.
Michigan (-34.5) v. App State -> Michigan will cover. No more anti wolverine magic for the Mountaineers.
NC State (-22.5) v. Georgia Southern -> Taking Pack, but given last year, I’m not sure we can score 23 points.08/15/2014 at 9:42 AM #54228
I have no idea why, but LSU/Wiscy screams “trap game” to me. Thus, Mad Hatter and crew probably win by 40.08/15/2014 at 11:54 PM #54232ruffles31Keymaster
NC State (-22.5) vs. Georgia Southern – No chance of overlooking Georgia Southern after what they did to Florida last year. Brissett starts out strong.
Ohio State (-17) vs. Navy – Ohio State, still smarting from a Spartan beatdown, dots the I and wins easily.
Nebraska (-23.5) vs. Florida Atlantic – Bo Pelini takes revenge for Florida Atlantic no longer having his brother Carl as head coach.
Auburn (-21) vs. Arkansas – Arkansas hit rock bottom last year (even worse than after the Bobby Petrino “incident”) and has to be better this year. But starting off at Jordan-Hare and the ghosts of “The Miracle at Jordan-Hare” and the “Kick Six” will guarantee the Razorbacks will continue their struggles under Bret Beilema.
Baylor (-33) vs. SMU – Baylor is the Oregon of the Southwest. With the QB Petty returning, and SMU losing their QB Gilbert (ex-Texas QB), this game will be a blowout. I forsee 65-20 for the Bears.08/16/2014 at 1:51 AM #54233
Baylor is the Oregon of the Southwest.
RG III agrees. Hopefully they won’t unveil any Eugene-esque hideosities in football.08/16/2014 at 9:36 AM #54237
I’m just waiting for the lines closer to opening weekend.08/16/2014 at 10:11 AM #54239TheCOWDOGModerator
Well…LRM just nailed it.
You are going to have to pick a day that the line is gospel.08/27/2014 at 7:50 PM #54528
Using the lines on Yahoo! Sports app.
Georgia Southern at State (-20.5)
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me 87470374092378 times, shame on me.
Texas A&M at South Carolina (-10.5)
Both teams lost stars and both teams are introducing new quarterbacks, but I think TAMU lost too much on offense with Matthews, Evans and what’s-his-face.
Boise State vs. Ole Miss (-10.5)
This is basically a home game against a flailing program.
Penn State vs. Central Florida (-2)
No Bortles this year. James Franklin starts his tenure with a win in Ireland.
UCLA (-21) at Virginia
Virginia covers at home. I want to see UCLA prove something first.08/28/2014 at 10:56 PM #54613
So…your Politburo contestants will be:
JackWolf (as SFN)
LRM08/29/2014 at 1:32 AM #54632
Die peasants.08/31/2014 at 5:24 PM #55151TheCOWDOGModerator
Are you guys going on the one day, one line, bible?
If not…there is still room to offer a challenge to the Grand Poobahs.
8 of you guys stepped up
with 5 picks, to include State. Very dicey as I would be one to only bet State as a dog, lifetime.
Anyway, the challange is this:
I come in at 3-0, as I only put 3 games out there.
You decide when the other games must be made up, games of your choice.
Final lines come from one source, USA today on Wednesday.(Danny Sheridan)
I am bound by all rules regarding State picks, meaning I got no choice!
The season ends on championship day.
If I win:
I get keys to the car and write articles in Sanscrit, from time to time.
If I don’t win:
Ricky can make me his bitch. And first rounds at the next gathering of the Key Club.
🙂 Whadda think?08/31/2014 at 8:45 PM #55164
Sooooooo…you’re looking to slum it for a while, eh? 😉09/02/2014 at 9:10 PM #55320Fastback68Participant
First of all, I hope Gowolves and Thealiastroll made some serious scratch this past weekend. Secondly, it’s Tuesday night already. Is anyone going to provide a seasonal ongoing record recap for this mod challenge? Don’t college games begin on W,T and F now. Lastly, some of you seem to know what you are talking about and so I hope you use your god given talent to stick it to the Las Vegas man. Having a winning record and not profiting is really going to piss me off. Jimmy the Greek got 10 minutes of airtime on the NFL Today show and I never saw him go over 52%. Extra ligaments. If the Catawba Indians ever build a sports book in Rock Hill, my marriage is over. Let’s see those picks.09/03/2014 at 6:32 AM #55325
BJD95: 5-0, bitches!!!
JackWolf (as SFN): 0-5
1.21 Jigawatts: 2-3
23-17 (57.5%), collectively aka in true Soviet fashion.
I will pick again tomorrow morning, comrades!09/03/2014 at 7:05 AM #553271.21 JigawattsKeymaster
Guess Week 1 makes comrade BJD the current General Secretary.09/03/2014 at 8:16 AM #55329
I also changed my mind, and will pick today:
(Source: 3 August N&O sports page)
Arizona (-7) at UTSA
This simply has to be some kind of sucker bet, as I don’t see how Rich Rodriguez fails to cover a touchdown spread against a team I have never heard of.
Iowa State (+12.5) vs. Kansas State
A guiding Week 2 principle is fading lines that look like overreactions to Week 1. Yes, the Cyclones got murdered by North Dakota State. But the Bison are awfully damned good. Kansas State has no business being double digit road favorites against any semi-sentient foe.
Temple (+3) vs. Navy
An overreaction to Navy hanging with THE Ohio State University for three quarters. Pssstt…maybe the Buckeyes really just aren’t very (or any) good. My Owls came through last week, and this line should give them a chip on their shoulder.
Notre Dame (-5) vs. Michigan
Michigan sucks. Notre Dame sucks much less.
NC State (-16) vs. Old Dominion
I don’t like picking this game, but rules is rules. A late score for a 27-10 win would suffice, and I could see that happening. Can’t bet on ODU keeping things close for 60 minutes. But would I be shocked if the Pack lost outright? No.09/03/2014 at 11:14 AM #55334
1) O-fer the state of Florida last week. Bastards.
2) I am now wondering what drugs the so-called experts were on who picked NCSU ahead of L’Ville in the pre-season (there were at least two that I know of).
And 3) I should get double credit for the UL-M pick out of the gate. Just saying.
After another trainwreck this week, I will probably be looking forward to my winter appointment to the Siberian field office by Comrade BJD (hostile work environment). I’m avoiding the State of Florida this week in order to prepare for that eventuality.
Pitt (-4.5) at BC – Pitt’s probably not as good as they looked this past weekend, but I doubt BC is either.
Miss State (-28.5) vs UAB – Bulldogs host an overmatched CUSA opponent for the 2nd straight week, with similar results.
Ole Miss (-20) at Vandy – Rebs got things rolling in the 2nd half in Atlanta and will continue to roll thru Nashville.
Penn State (-14.5) vs Akron – Team bad touch will shake off the Ireland lag and get their hands all over the Zips at home.
NC State (-16) vs ODU – While I do expect a Pack win, covering the 16 pt spread might be somewhat of wishful thinking homerism here perhaps.09/03/2014 at 11:22 AM #55335
I have to pick today, gonna be mostly out of pocket Thurs-Fri.
ODU at State (-16)
Hampton threw for 409 yards against ODU and JB12 (not to be confused with the original JB, JB4), found some rhythm late.
Ole Miss (-20) at Vandy
Vandy was not good against Temple. The Rebel Bears win, but Vandy covers at home.
USC West at Stanford (-2.5)
Stanford lost a lot on offense and I think USC will just straight outscore them.
ECU at USC East (-16.5)
Virginia Tech at tOSU (-11)
I think tOSU wins, but a close one.09/03/2014 at 11:36 AM #55336
Wuf – TBT hands all overt the Zips…well-played.
LRM – I wanted to pick the angry Chickens, but didn’t want to give any juju to the Pie-rats. And agreed, tOSU/castrated turkeys could easily be 7-3. Or VPI will finally experience the full program-level collapse that they’ve teetered on the precipice of for years.09/03/2014 at 12:42 PM #55339RickKeymaster
odu vs ncsu the depths of or suckitude have not been reached
Troy vs Duke +19 no way Brad Pitt losses this one
asu +26. Vs new Mexico. Street giving Herbie an extension, they have to have something go right
msu vs Oregon. No way ducks trump Spartans
Arizona vs UTSA. No way the tennis association has a good football team
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