Pack Dominated in “Our State” Bowl played in NC (+more)

The most shocking part about what happened to N.C. State on Wednesday was how predictable it turned out to be. Over the past three seasons, the Wolfpack has almost unerringly lost to above-average teams while beating below-average teams. This year, its record was perfect in that respect.

It literally started on the very first play from scrimmage where NC State’s Matt Canada called a play pass play in a torrential downpour that the Pack must’ve run more than two dozen times this year and resulted in a Mississippi State interception. Dave Huxtable’s defense then did what his defenses do best — allowed a touchdown (on the way to giving up 51 points on the day) and the route was on.

The way the loss came about was puzzling on many fronts. State started the day announcing that Reggie Gallaspy would not play due to injury, leaving the obvious conclusion for everyone being that spark-plug and crowd favorite, Jaylen Samuels, would lead the rushing attack and be supported by Nyheim Hines and maybe a little more Dakwa Nichols than we’re accustomed to seeing.

Instead, Jacoby Brissett seemed to get more of the rushing load (26 carries on the day) while ‘JaySam’ touched the ball at total of FOUR TIMES for the entire game, resulting in 53 yards on three carries and two touchdowns to go along with one catch for minus-2 yards. In addition to Samuels, Jacoby Brissett ran 26 times, Nyheim Hines rushed 13 times, Dakwa Nichols 6 times and Bra’lon Cherry once. In his post-game press conference, Coach Doeren said that State tried to get Samuels more involved in the offense but Mississippi State took away the option. I honestly don’t know what to say.

Link to N&O

Prescott threw for a bowl-record 380 yards and four touchdown passes. It was N.C. State’s first loss in three trips to the Charlotte bowl and fifth straight loss to an SEC team.

In the run-up to the bowl game, N.C. State coach Dave Doeren lamented about his team’s mistakes and hiccups in critical ACC losses to Louisville and Virginia Tech.

The Wolfpack spotted Mississippi State a 21-0 lead, after a pair of interceptions in the first quarter by quarterback Jacoby Brissett, but in the simplest terms, Mississippi State’s offense was just better than N.C. State’s defense.

“We just weren’t able to stop them at the end,” Doeren said.

The following is a little of ESPN’s perspective from last night:

There’s no excuse for such a slow start by NC State. After all, the Belk Bowl was practically a home game for the Wolfpack. To fall behind 21-0 early in the second quarter was inexcusable and ultimately too big of a hole to climb out from. But it’s nothing new for NC State, which ended the regular season the same way by giving up 35 points to North Carolina in the first quarter. While coach Dave Doeren appears to have the program pointed in the right direction overall, he might want to take a long look at the fact that entering the Belk Bowl, the Wolfpack was minus-1 in scoring margin in the first half of Power 5 games.

Dave Doeren is now 1-1 in bowl games at NC State. NC State has now lost five in a row to SEC teams. For this season, the Wolfpack went 0-6 against bowl eligible teams and 7-0 against all of the other teams. Put another way — State was 0-5 this season when taking the field as an underdog and 7-1 where we were favored. Additionally, I’m pretty sure that State failed to cover a single point spread in games where we were underdogs. These statistics led to pretty straight forward conclusions and analysis in this article by Luke Decock.

The most shocking part about what happened to N.C. State on Wednesday was how predictable it turned out to be. Over the past three seasons, the Wolfpack has almost unerringly lost to above-average teams while beating below-average teams. This year, its record was perfect in that respect.

The Wolfpack fell to 0-6 against bowl-eligible teams after going 7-0 against the dregs, with a 51-28 loss to Mississippi State in the Belk Bowl on Wednesday that left N.C. State’s fans with raindrops falling on their heads and cowbells ringing in their ears.

“We underachieved a little bit,” N.C. State defensive back Juston Burris said. “We could have done better. We hold ourselves to a very high standard. Seven wins, that’s not the type of team we are. We’re not a seven-win team.”

That is, unfortunately for the Wolfpack, what the only metric that matters says about the season. When you only beat bad teams and don’t beat good ones, you unavoidably end up in the neighborhood of .500 – 8-5 last season, 7-6 this season. Whatever the Mendoza Line of college football is, the Wolfpack is astride it.

[snip]

“We were competitive in every game that we played in the regular season this year without a doubt, which we weren’t the year before,” N.C. State coach Dave Doeren said. “We need to be better. We need to win some of those competitive one-possession games and be a four-quarter team. We’ve been able to do that in some games but not consistently. To take the next step, that’s our goal. Being in Year 4 with several returning starters, we have an opportunity to do that.”

If you want to dive deeper into a conversation that is tangentially related to this post, then you should also click here.

Chuck Amato won a bowl game in Charlotte.
Tom O’Brien won a bowl game in Charlotte.
Dave Doeren is going to need another try.

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Home Forums Pack Dominated in “Our State” Bowl played in NC

This topic contains 56 replies, has 33 voices, and was last updated by  BJD95 2 years, 4 months ago.

Viewing 25 posts - 1 through 25 (of 57 total)
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  • #95525

    StateFans
    Keymaster

    The most shocking part about what happened to N.C. State on Wednesday was how predictable it turned out to be. Over the past three seasons, the Wolfpa
    [See the full post at: Pack Dominated in “Our State” Bowl played in NC]

    #95533

    tractor57
    Participant

    The better team won. They started quick and bested any challenge.

    #95536

    LRM
    Keymaster

    Mississippi State under Dan Mullen has become a very good program.

    Doeren desperately needs some wins next year. And that should work itself out — one way or the other — because we’ll have to win a couple games where we probably won’t be favored just for bowl eligibility: @ ECU, Notre Dame, FSU, @ Louisville, Miami, @ Clemson, @ Carolina.

    #95538

    Dogbreath
    Participant

    it is what it is. We are a penny-pinching, bottom-feeding athletics department. Our budget uniforms looked like they were bought at the jockey lot. I heard we only paid to send half our band to a bowl game 120 miles from campus. All this for a nationally televised game that provides a window into your university for a captive audience. That tells you everything you need to know about what kind of commitment our school has to putting forward a championship-caliber program. We are staring down the 3-9 barrel next year as the ceiling for this team.

    #95539

    LRM
    Keymaster

    To be fair, Adidas pays us to wear those uniforms.

    #95540

    Wulfpack
    Participant

    Adidas pays us to wear those uniforms.

    You’d have to pay me to wear those as well. Awful.

    #95541

    papackman
    Participant

    Couldn’t wait for the start of 2015 Pack football…..2016….not sure I care…..so disappointing!!

    #95543

    mak4dpak
    Participant

    So much concern about the unis. I for one don’t care what they wear, as long as they win. And that certainly didn’t happen. Pass defense killed us, the qb for MSU had all the time in the world to pass the ball, and if we held them for 2 downs, you could pretty much count on them converting the 3rd down conversion. Guys open all day. Again, I totally blame our incompotent DC/Huxtable. And the offense didn’t do their job, in keeping our inept defense off the field. Again the great play calling by our OC/Canada. We are what we are, and until we take the steps to be anything more, we will stay right where we are. I hope DD, can realize they, and take the proper step, or else DY will send him packing. What a miserable way to spend a day, sitting in the pouring rain, watching your team get whipped.

    #95545

    tractor57
    Participant

    While I don’t like ANY uni with black being a major color that is not the issue. A win solves that – we were not ready to win. The cowbells were better, their QB was markedly better. Yes he had better OL help but when he had to throw the trows were mostly NFL quality.

    #95546

    hpack
    Participant

    Made the 3.5 hour drive from Atlanta to watch the game in horrible conditions. Main points from seeing the game in person…

    MSU clearly better team due to stronger line play. MSQ QB had plenty of time to set his feet and pick out receivers. Brissett was under duress from the first play. Until the PACK fortifies it’s lines, there is no real chance to elevate to a consistent top 25 program….(This has been the case for 25 years with the exception of a few solid Amato years)

    Our secondary did OK but was aided by bad conditions. MSU receivers had about 5-6 drops that could have made things worse.

    Best chance to win the game looked to be to run to the edges and catch a seam. Seemed not to stick with this enough.

    Coaching, discipline, and execution were lacking… Cannot win a game against a good opponent by throwing an interception on the first play from scrimmage then spotting the opponent a 3 touchdown lead. Roughing the passer on 2nd and 18 when all momentum is on your side to give the opponent new life. Disastrous trick plays ended several drives. False start on 3rd and 5 in 4-down territory. These are the red flag coaching/program issues that have to be addressed to start beating the good teams.

    Hoping for better for better in 2016…

    #95547

    Alpha Wolf
    Keymaster

    I’m quite far from picking up the ole “fire the coach” pitchfork, but next year, as a baseline minimum, Doeren and his staff need to beat a Power Five team that ends their season with a winning record.

    He’s not done that yet.

    #95548

    packalum44
    Participant

    Is a team that loses by 30 the same as a team that loses by 10?

    We improved this year whether most fans have the analytical ability to look past win loss metric is their problem.

    Also keep in mind that was MSUs Philip Rivers. He’s better than our QB and had a much better o-line.

    #95549

    TheAliasTroll
    Participant

    Well, win loss metric (which is what ultimately matters) was worse this year with a MUCH softer schedule than it was last year. If you’re willing to throw that metric out the window then sure, give Dave another contract extension.

    Break in a new quarterback for next year along with our 10th ranked recruiting class in the conference and against a more difficult schedule doesn’t exactly make me feel giddy about our alleged improvement we’ve had this year.

    #95550

    phcqmfd
    Participant

    Hux must think it is against the rules to rush more than 4. MSU rushed 5 at a minimum and 6 on every pass play. We rushed 4 and look what happened. I will never understand why when you cant get there with 4 you dont try something new. Hux must go and go now and take the OC with him

    #95552

    Pack1997
    Participant

    While I have been a DD supporter, the evidence is clearly going against him. Our offense is worse this year than last. Our WR cannot get separation, which is normally coaching. All we do is run the ball, when we have a QB who has the ability to throw the ball down the field. We aren’t aggressive on the defensive side of the ball at all. Unless something remarkable happens next year, we will be looking for a new coach. Shame too because a lot of good ones were available this year.

    #95553

    ncsslim
    Participant

    The biggest difference in this game was the line play on both sides of the ball. Prescott was very (surprisingly stout) impressive, but the pressure Brissett faced (from the first freakin’ play on) was a game changer. Also, I honestly expected more from our d-line.

    I don’t see a lot to build on going forward, other than probably a better than average set of running backs, which is like a shiny Corvette with an old air cooled VW 2-cylinder engine.

    #95554

    Alpha Wolf
    Keymaster

    I think that Doeren needs to make two important changes: get a new DC and new position coaches below him (especially in the defensive backfield) and also get a new QB coach.

    Without parsing through statistics, the eye test on Brissett tells me he regressed this year. For some reason, he seemed to be mostly static in the pocket instead of the dynamic scrambler he was last season. We needed a Patrick Mahomes (Texas Tech’s QB) type of passer, someone who could move around, buy time for receivers to get open and then deliver the ball with accuracy. Brissett did neither, and IMO that goes straight back to Matt Canada and his coaching.

    #95555

    I was excited about this season. For some strange reason I thought we were going to be a “dark horse” team in the Atlantic…

    #95556

    Whiteshoes67
    Participant

    Talking to high school coaches I know that routinely send players to Power 5 teams, they like Doeren. I don’t know about their impression of the OC or DC and other assistants, but I’ll ask.

    I’ve seen enough from Canada to stick with him. I do think he occasionally gets away from what works, and goes a little too Tecmo Bowl for my taste. Too much horizontal running and passing. I’m a north-south guy. The side to side junk only works if you can smash and go vertical, or have superior speed and big receivers who block well. Without those elements, you’re not going to be able to effectively stretch teams horizontally. With that said, I do think the loss of Thornton hurt us, far more than losing Dayes, and we desperately need more talent at the receiver position. Not getting the ball to Samuels more is/was inexcusable, particularly after injuries. Hand it to him.

    Haven’t ever seen anything from Huxtable that I like. Too many issues on that side. We chase too much and play too soft. It’s not a recipe for luring recruits or success against the spread. Need more creativity and aggression on that side. I’d go young and creative, take a risk.

    #95558

    WTNY
    Participant

    Why did we want the Belk bowl again?

    I was puzzled by everyone being so excited about our jumping Pitt and getting the better game.

    We were Tier II worthy and that is where we should have landed.

    #95559

    tjfoose1
    Participant

    Is a team that loses by 30 the same as a team that loses by 10?

    We improved this year whether most fans have the analytical ability to look past win loss metric is their problem.

    Also keep in mind that was MSUs Philip Rivers. He’s better than our QB and had a much better o-line.

    ’44, Are you ok? I agree 100%, but the above is not following your normal theme.

    I’ve seen enough from Canada to stick with him. I do think he occasionally gets away from what works, and goes a little too Tecmo Bowl for my taste. Too much horizontal running and passing. I’m a north-south guy.

    I agree, but to be fair, the horizontal running is tactically paired with the north-south stuff. This was most visible in the Wake game. Wake made it a point to shut down JaySam on the horizontal game. That opened up Dayes’ big game going North-South. The rushing stats speak for themselves (one of the best seasons in Wolfpack history). We were missing a consistently effective vertical passing games. It didn’t help that Brissett struggles, mightily, in wet weather, and we played 3 games in the rain. All ugly games for Jacoby.

    #95560

    PackFamily
    Participant

    …when we have a QB who has the ability to throw the ball down the field

    Completely disagree.. JB has shown no ability to accurately throw past 20 yards with any consistency.

    I am on board with replacing the DC. I understand the frustration with Canada sometimes. I think he does well most of the time, and gets a little squirrely when our defense puts us in a whole.

    #95561

    etab4u
    Participant

    It was predictable. I’m glad I didn’t bother to watch, much less attend this year. I don’t need the frustration or depression.
    Our long term trend is to perform in the middle third of the conference and occasionally worse. I was a sophomore the last time we won the ACC in football – and I’m growing old. Not to mention that was when the ACC had half as many teams.
    If we want to do better we need to look to how other schools that have gone from mediocre or suck to the top tier have done it. Baylor, Oklahoma State, etc. come to mind recently. Years ago it was Bowden and Beamer that turned around losing programs. Maybe Doren is the answer but I’d be interested in seeing some comparisons between those programs and what we’re doing or not doing. Is it all coaching and recruiting? Money? Administration support?
    Unfortunately, from what I’ve seen so far, my expectation is that we will continue to revert to the mean. We hit that perfectly this year, again.

    #95562

    choppack1
    Participant

    This game was an epic fail…IMHO, it accentuated the problems that we saw this year….defense couldn’t get stops when it had to and when the door was cracked open the offense couldn’t make plays.

    Funny, msu made adjustments on d and offense. In the second half they basically spread us out and passed to whomever the linebacker was covering. Very disappointing in that we had seen this starting with Louisville game and apparently we didn’t make any adjustments to stop this.

    Funny, Houston is totally shutting down an FSU offense we couldn’t stop.

    While the offense was the problem in our first 2 conference games, it was our d that was absolutely awful in our losses. There needs to be significant changes on that side of the ball.

    #95565

    StateRed44
    Participant

    Screw it. Lets throw the kitchen sink at Chip Kelly. Back up the Brinks truck. Until we do something balls out like that we will get absolutely no effing where. I refuse to be depressed by a weak sister program.

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