Are you ready to win a title? (Part III)

In Part I we took a look at the differences and similarities of National Champions over the last 13 years. We discovered over this time there have been numerous schools, coaches, styles, tempos, and experience levels in the makeup of a National Champion. We also discovered using tempo free statistical data the majority of them have 2 things in common, strong offenses and even stronger defenses. In Part II we broke down the NCAAT by the round to determine if there is a clear statistical difference between teams who lose in each of the rounds. While it came as no shock to anyone to learn good (and even great) teams can blow it by losing early there is a distinction between most of the rounds. Using this information we can move on now to Part III where first we will briefly discuss the usage of this tool as a possible predictor for filling out your brackets (Ken Pomeroy even says his tempo free stats are a tool for predicting games) and secondly use it to evaluate coaches, starting with our own Mark Gottfried, to determine if they under or over achieve during the NCAAT and what kind of teams and expectations we should come to expect from him/them over the course of their tenure.

Prediction through Probability

Let’s start by plotting the ODS trends by round to get a visualization of what we have and overlay the 2015 version of the Wolfpack to see where it falls across each of the rounds. Note: Round 1 = Round of 64 and Round 7 = National Champion.

If you recall in Part II I laid out how the -1Sigma line delineates between the upper 84% and the bottom 16% of teams that lost in each round and thus who should have a legitimate chance at qualifying for the round. If we look at the current ODS value of the Wolfpack heading into the 2015 NCAAT we see they are near the bottom of the 84% who will make the Round of 32 and then less likely to make it to the second weekend. Here are the ODS, AOE, & ADE values of the sigmas for each round.

Breaking the ODS into the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (AOE) and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (ADE) we can plot the 2015 Wolfpack to see how we’ll they are expected in each phase. Looking at the AOE we see the Pack have at least a Final Four (FF) caliber offense but when you look at the Pack’s ADE we see what is truly holding them back to the first weekend. I’m attaching the table of MG’s teams showing the 3 values and breaking down the defense into the Four Factors and final results.

Next I calculated the probability of reaching each round by ODS values. If we plot the 2015 Wolfpack we can see they have about a 74% chance of reaching the Round of 32 and a 44% chance of reaching the Sweet 16. After that the percentages are so low it’s not even worth mentioning.

I believe this can be a useful tool in helping you decide just how far into the NCAAT you might want to place teams.

Mark Gottfried

Now let’s start looking at our own coach, Mark Gottfried (MG), and try and get an idea of how he’s done over the last 13 years. I will be using the final ODS values for these bell curve graphs to see how his teams ended the season in relation to the rest of the population. If we overlay MG teams with the Round of 32 (R32) we can see they are right in the 68% population (+/-1Sig) of teams who make the R32. This tells us that he produces clear R32 teams every year he’s been in the tournament.

Looking at MG in comparison to the Second Weekend teams we see about 50/50 playing into the bottom of the S16 while only a blip to the bottom of the E8. Lastly we see MG just hasn’t played up to the level of the Final Four or beyond.

Let’s look at this in a table format on a round by round basis to see how he has done in relation to how his teams have entered the NCAAT.

NOTE: These ODS values are Pre-NCAAT so we get an idea of predicting how he should have done and what he really did.

Let me try and explain what we’re looking at in case my legend is unclear:
MG has been coaching for 11 of the last 13 seasons; he has been to the NCAAT 8 of those 11 years for an appearance of 73%. Of those 8 NCAAT appearances he has had 4 teams reach the Round of 32 equaling 50%. When entering the NCAAT his teams had an ODS value of at least -1Sigma for the R32 a total of 6 times and of those 6 teams only 3 of them made it to the R32 for 50%.

As you can see most of his teams are first weekend teams and as such have performed that way. He has entered the NCAAT with 1 team capable of making the FF but did not reach it. So how much has he under or overachieved in the NCAAT?

If you have a team predicted to make Round X and you lose at least 2 rounds prior to the predicted round then you have underachieved. The exception being the Runner Up and losing in the E8, there is minimal separation between the 2 rounds. For example, you team is predicted to make the S16 and you lose in the R64 then you underachieved.

We can easily when times MG has under and overachieved and both have been at Alabama and NC State. While he hasn’t overachieved much, simply making it 1 round beyond prediction, he has bombed pretty badly twice.

How does Mark Gottfried compare to other coaches?

Looking at the Round of 32 we see while MG passable percentage of teams going in as R32 capable he falls short in getting those teams to the R32 as compared to a list of coaches who are early, similar, and long in their careers as coaches.

As you can see most coaches percentages are dropping as we go further into the rounds but the questions remain, how is he doing in comparison to others and again he is lagging behind. I do want to point out a couple of other coaches: Mark Few has shown over the years he is a good regular season coach but gets an F in the NCAAT; also Sean Miller consistently meets the expectations that is expected of him time and time again with the teams he has created when entering the tournament and does it at a second weekend level.

Before we look at the National Champions I want to point out a couple of things about the FF and RU: Can anyone believe that Sendek has created 2 Runner Up teams during his time? I was floored. Also just look at K’s numbers and has anyone done less with more than he has over the last 13 years?

Finally the National Champions.

As we can see there are a handful of coaches who have created the teams capable but 2 on this list stand out as consistently doing it and that’s Roy and K. I wonder how long until the landscape will change.

SUMMARY

I’ve laid out a few tools that I hope can be helpful to others in filling out their brackets and helping to evaluate coaches, including Mark Gottfried. Gottfried has shown over the years to be a first weekend NCAAT coach. His teams come in with good offenses but usually lack in defense which is a big contributor to his teams entering the NCAAT as first weekend teams. I do believe the data backs up this assertion. If Gottfried wants to go further, If NC STATE wants to go further under MG, then he has to do a better job than he has shown because at this moment he’s not even setting up his teams to catch lightning in a bottle to make deep runs.

Class of '98, Mechanical Engineer, State fan since arriving on campus and it's been a painful ride ever since. I live by the Law of NC State Fandom, "For every Elation there is an equal and opposite Frustration."

Home Forums Are you ready to win a title? (Part III)

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• #80314
MP
Participant

Even though I ‘like’ Gott and have tried to verbally support him in previous threads, I totally agree that (a) the numbers do matter, and (b) season #5 will matter in a large way.

Beyond the data included in this series, I would be interested in expanding the look at coaches/programs to understand coaching tiers better. For example, say there are 15 coaches nationwide that have statistics that establish them as ‘Tier 1’, 30 coaches as ‘Tier 2’, etc. Then look at salaries for the coaches at various tiers and try to decipher:

What teams are getting what they pay for?

Are any teams overpaying for the results they are getting?

If a team finds itself in (say) ‘Tier 2’ and wants to upgrade, what opportunities exist and what may it cost to make that move?

#80316
BJD95
Keymaster

But VA – you admitted to being at least mildly and pleasantly surprised this year. It could be a taste of what is to come, or we could revert to the mean (ie, merely a “Prague Spring”). Time will tell.

And Jigsy, I think you’re totally right in your diagnosis, but the results of this season AND this current roster construction/shift in emphasis (see the benching of our beloved Angel of Death and the minutes for Frenchie) show reason for optimism and a sign that Gott is learning or at least adapting. I think holding the Holes to their lowest output in Nose Dome history was at least 75% about our defensive effort and dedication, and that’s no small thing. Needs to be a harbinger of things to come and again, not a Prague Spring.

#80318
choppack1
Participant

Bid – think what you are hoping for is that during his purgatory gott realized the critical importance of developing great defensive teams.

There are a lot of questions to be answered – but I think there’s a high likelihood that the improved d you are seeing results in 2 rare factors – 1) the quickness and intelligent defensive play of cat barber and 2)the presence of a post player with 2nd longest wingspan ever measured by the NBA.

If both of these guys are back next year and we improve to “good” defensively I don’t think that will necessarily mean that gott has embraced defense and is coaching it well…the proof will be in his future classes.

Regarding the sendek squad that collapsed vs both vandy and umd – to be fair -scooter didn’t play in either game due to an ankle sprain. Luck is a huge factor in those runs and the team that built sendek’s most successful regular season record included scooter. (And IMHO, scooter was a “winner” who could have been a huge factor in both of those games.)

#80319
BJD95
Keymaster

Not “great” – but he knows we have to be committed to at least working hard on every possession and being at least “good” that way. That is – NO CIPHERS. He basically started saying (and meaning) if you don’t work on defense, you won’t play. And that’s largely held up. BSW still sucks at many aspects of it, but he positions for rebounds well (which is an element of defense) and does “help” defense/takes charges pretty well. Definitely better than he was. And he’s being replaced with a much more athletic version next year.

Gottfried has talked about commitment to defense over and over this season, and I don’t think it’s by accident. It doesn’t mean we are going to turn into a Tom Izzo program, and we don’t have to. But we have to have more balance than the first three teams had. That’s the point of this series.

If you have a couple of elite defenders and everybody else is at least in the B/B+ range (and plays hard), you can be really dangerous, even without being a “pack line” kind of system team.

#80320
1.21 Jigawatts
Keymaster

I’ll believe it when I see it BJD. Say we look at just the last 8 games, dating back to the Louisville game where they have gone 6-2 since the “change”. If we look at just the good (wins) then we see: OE (112.3), DE (94.4), ODS (17.9). That’s an improvement but still not even in the top 84% of teams that make the E8. But we can’t forget about the bad during this time: OE (96.7), DE (130.0), ODS (-33.3). That isn’t just bad, that’s FUGLY.

So the best they’ve played over the last 8 games they are still only considered a S16 team instead of a R32 team.

If we look at all the games during that time: OE (108.5), DE (103.0), ODS (5.5) then we don’t even have a R32 team.

If State plays like their “best” basketball since their change then they have the potential to be a S16 team but they are equally capable of laying another egg and getting bounced in the first round to a 16 seed. Here’s my point, I’m sure if we went back and looked at an 8 game stretch during any of MG’s teams we can find a good run, the problem is it’s not consistent and his good is very close to his best.

I’ll reiterate what VaWolf has said in the past few weeks, Gottfried is the coach of NC State and that’s not changing in the next couple of years and I’m always pulling for State to succeed; but MG hasn’t changed his stripes in umpteen years and I’ll believe he has when I see tangible results that last longer than 3 weeks.

#80322
BJD95
Keymaster

^ This is why we need that more robust data set. And the confidence to stop shutting down when shit starts bouncing the wrong way. Next year needs to be shit-or-get-off-the-pot in that respect.

#80323
wufpup76
Keymaster

… I’m simply laying out an emotion free case for what to expect from Gottfried as well as the realistic likelihood of advancement into the NCAAT for any team, especially NC State

This, to me, is what makes it beautiful.

There are no ‘catch-alls’ assigned and the numbers are what they are – results-based and predictive.

#80324
VaWolf82
Keymaster

But VA – you admitted to being at least mildly and pleasantly surprised this year. It could be a taste of what is to come, or we could revert to the mean

I’m absolutely thrilled that this year didn’t turn into a bonfire. All of last year with the ACC Player of the Year, State had exactly one Top-25 win. This year, they beat Duke and UNC in the Dean Dome. Even if you had nothing else to go on, those two facts show unarguable improvement over last year.

So what led to the improvement? Options include:
– Trevor Lacey
– Improved output from returning players
– Gott
– Some combination of above

There is really no way for any of us to proportion credit for the improvement. If Gott’s coaching was a significant contributor, then the results will show up year after year. If not…

#80325
Whiteshoes67
Participant

^not to nitpick, but I think kw’s diminished role is less about his poor defense (and he is bad), than about the emergence of Abu and more consistent play of Anya on both ends. Freeman and kW got the bulk of early season minutes. Gottfried experimented a lot in conference play, even reducing Freeman’s time at one point

My point is that gottfried wasn’t exactly sacrificing offense for defense. Xphoenix, I think, authored fantastic post about our defensive ineptitude, and trade offs with the bigs.

My biggest problem is that we generate very few turnovers. Gott talked a lot early about pressuring the ball, but aside from cat, we don’t.

#80326
Wulfpack
Participant

We’ll see. I know that isn’t very interesting, but we are close(r). If we show the same improvement next year, the results will speak for themselves. If not, and we’re bubble material (or slightly better) next year), then we’ll know it’s probably not going to happen. Maybe once in a 10 year span (which might work for some) but nothing consistent. We really are close, but you have to also be objective. He’s our guy. Agree not going anywhere any time soon with these results.

#81152
Heelh8r
Participant

Put that second half in your IUD% efficiency analysis and smoke it! They never scored another field goal the last 10 minutes. Absolutely BRILLIANT coaching job by GOTT. I know it hurts, but give him some credit. C’mon, you can do it.

#81154
Rick
Keymaster

Put that second half in your IUD% efficiency analysis and smoke it! They never scored another field goal the last 10 minutes. Absolutely BRILLIANT coaching job by GOTT. I know it hurts, but give him some credit. C’mon, you can do it.

What about last nights game changes the substance of the original article?

BTW I don’t really expect a substantial response.

#81164
1.21 Jigawatts
Keymaster

So wait, LSU pulls a State, snatches defeat from the jaws of victory and I’m supposed to give Gottfried credit? Please show me where one game, which btw my article clearly shows they were above the -1Sigma line to reach the Round of 32, negates everything over the last 13 years.

#81165
TheCOWDOG
Moderator

Actually last night’s game was an example of a phenomenon that had me questioning the reliability of data used for Adjusted #s to begin with.

Was State’s defense efficient? Or was LSU’s offense horribly inept?

The same might be said when examining OE. Where is the data that reflects whether a team just ran into a buzzsaw of a defense, or flatout farted its offense away?

Being that the emotionaless numbers speak for themselves, maybe the above poster was commenting on the irony of using those numbers as a justification/confirmation bias?

#81168
VaWolf82
Keymaster

A friend put this on my office door at work. Can you imagine?

#81170
VaWolf82
Keymaster

Where is the data that reflects whether a team just ran into a buzzsaw of a defense, or flatout farted its offense away?

Pretty much a judgement call…or that whole eye-of-the-beholder thing.

This was a comeback or a crash, depending on your point of view, but from the neutral bird’s eye, it looked more like a crash. LSU was 0 for its last 12, hitting its last field goal with 10:26 left in the game, and missed six consecutive free throws in the final three minutes. LSU stopped attacking the rim with gusto, settling for layups instead of going to the rack with authority, and that opened the door for the Wolfpack, who happily charged through it.

That said, credit NC State for staying with it. The Wolfpack trailed by 14 at the break and looked out of sync offensively for much of the first half and overwhelmed by the Tigers’ size and athleticism. But NC State ramped up its defense in the second half, limiting the Tigers to just 29 percent shooting, and systematically chipped into the lead.

But the bigger point is that one game…good or bad…doesn’t change any long-term conclusions….or the minds of those that have already made them up. I still remember one frequent poster that left in a huff because everyone was being mean to Lowe. Now they’re both gone.

#81171
BJD95
Keymaster

Like Sterling Mallory Archer would say “Little Column A, Little Column B.”

Also, that’s how you get ants!

#81173
VaWolf82
Keymaster

Here’s a quote that I’ve always thought should be adopted by more message board posters:

When my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, sir?
John Maynard Keynes

#81177
Rick
Keymaster

Here’s a quote that I’ve always thought should be adopted by more message board posters:

When my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, sir?
John Maynard Keynes

I love that quote. I have never understood the whole dig your heels in and never change your mind. Or even making fun of someone who does change their mind.

#81178
TheCOWDOG
Moderator

Didn’t Keynes also say conclusions made over the long run are misleading?

“…In the the long run we are all dead.”

#81184
1.21 Jigawatts
Keymaster

A friend put this on my office door at work. Can you imagine?

I’d put it up on your door laughing the entire time just because I’d know it to be the opposite of reality.

#81231
Heelh8r
Participant

Let me explain myself. I am just a long time Wolfpacker, like most everybody on here, who loves pulling for my team. Until I started participating on this forum, I liked Gott just fine and felt that he had done a very good job of building our program back up from the bottom of the barrel, but it’s not like I was one of his biggest supporters. Then I started seeing some of the stuff being said about him and some people already championing a replacement for him. I couldn’t believe it and found myself speaking out in his support. Normally, I would never call anybody out the way I did in my original post, but what some did last night was to me inexcusable. You were actually pulling for State to lose because of your extreme dislike for Gott and to prove you have been right in discrediting his coaching. I went back and read some of the posts again to make sure I had not misunderstood your intentions and it is unmistakable what your motives were. Some of you only post derogatory comments when we are getting beat, but then go absolutely mute when we win. I understand the idea that everyone has their own opinions and people are free to post whatever they like (thanks Pup), but pulling against our team makes you look ridiculous and by association makes us all look ridiculous. You are missing one of the funnest seasons State Fans have had in a long long time.

#81263
1.21 Jigawatts
Keymaster

I was going to take the time to respond to each of your “points” but why? You pulled out the “not a real fan” card and once someone has played that it’s pointless discussing anything with them because they have nothing to stand on or any intellectual honesty.

#81268
Heelh8r
Participant

I’ve already been called stupid, but I don’t know what not having any intellectual honesty means as it relates to my post.
I’m not saying you are not a fan and I didn’t say that. I’m saying that you want to destroy Gott and are pulling for the team to lose to accomplish that. I had not read the “Anya” thread where others expressed similar sentiments so I guess I posted on the wrong forum. The reason I was moved to post on this one was that the whole “Are you ready to win a title” thread was a thinly veiled plot to bash Gott. I realize you used statistical analysis to do that, but you already knew what you wanted to prove when you started.

I realize people post things during the heat of the game that are negative and that that is part of pulling for your team and the “therapy” thing. That’s cool. Many even come back and say they were wrong and are proud of the team for fighting back and not quitting and they are glad to eat crow, etc. That is not what I am talking about. Your last post was a whole line Hahaha to anyone who thought our defense was going to help us win. When they did just that, nothing from you. Then today you say Gott gets no credit for the win because LSU gave it to us. In the second half, we out rebounded them, we had 1 TO, and we kept them from getting a field goal for over 10 minutes.

You can respond or not. I’m going to bed. I’ve never been a poster before so I’m sure I don’t know all the rules. To me, we should all be family here and I’m not trying to make an enemy with you or anybody. It’s just that Gott and the team are all part of the family too and when someone attacks them, I feel compelled to respond.

#81342
VaWolf82
Keymaster

I saw a lot of posts like yours during the Great Herb Debate. You chose to cast dispersion on a great piece of work after a game that State won…that they were SUPPOSED to win. How is that proof of anything?

Accusing someone of bias without any proof tells me that you have no info to support your emotional position. The conclusions reached in this very detailed analysis are supported by the RPI table I posted above as well as Gott’s career record. If you have any objective evidence to support your position, you should have presented it instead of making accusations.

There is a huge difference in hoping for State and Gott to succeed and believing that they will. Even though the past doesn’t always predict the future, it is all we have to go on.

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