OTR: Predict Pack’s ACC Record (with bonus imbalanced schedule stats)

It’s that time of year again!  Time for you to go ‘On the Record’ with your Wolfpack perspectives and knowledge.

State opens the season tomorrow with an extremely difficult task on the road at Clemson (we’ve got your pre-game discussion)  And, the schedule doesn’t necessarily get THAT much easier.  You can view the imbalanced nature of the ACC’s schedule by clicking hereNote the following observation:

Pity poor N.C. State, who because of rivalries always draws UNC and Clemson twice a year, and this season has it compounded by facing BC twice and only getting road games against Duke and Clemson.

[Note: The author of ^that piece incorrectly referenced Clemson as NC State’s other natural rivalry. Wake Forest is actually NC State’s other partner for two games each season.]

If only that observation was a new observation!  This is the fourth season of the conference’s imbalanced schedule and our own VaWolf has historically does a fantastic job of crunching the data.  (For more detail click here and also feel free to click through the links to past entries.)

The following is the breakdown of the conference strength of schedule over the last three years.  Herb Sendek coached NC State in 2006; Sidney Lowe is entering his third season as the Wolfpack’s Head Coach.

The Wolfpack’s ACC schedule this year shapes up as follows:

January 10 at Clemson
January 13 Florida State
January 17 Georgia Tech
January 20 at Duke
January 24 at Boston College
January 27 Miami (FL)
January 31 North Carolina
February 8 at Virginia Tech
February 11 Wake Forest
February 14 at Georgia Tech
February 18 at North Carolina
February 21 Virginia
February 26 at Wake Forest
March 1 Maryland
March 4 Boston College
March 7 at Miami (FL)

We’ll go with the following:

Sure losses: at Clemson, at Duke, at UNC, at Wake, UNC (0-4)

Probable loss: Wake (0-1)

Toss ups:  the remaining 11 games

Splitting the remaining 11 games equally and with a bias to defending the home court would lead to the following toss-up wins:

  1. Georgia Tech
  2. Florida State
  3. Virginia
  4. @VT or @GT or @ BC (win one of these three)
  5. Boston College
  6. Maryland 

If the Wolfpack can hold serve in a manner that puts us anywhere close to the above scenario then the following three games become the “swing/defining games” on the schedule:

  1. Miami in Raleigh
  2. Game #2 of the @VT or @GT or @ BC
  3. Game #3 of the @VT or @GT or @ BC

Coupling this schedule with what we know about the composition of this NC State roster and the importance of guard play in college basketball…then a 6-10 record should serve as an acceptable baseline with a 7-9 record or 5-11 record within the realm of possibility.  Anything more or less would serve as a surprise.

About StateFans

'StateFansNation' is the shared profile used by any/all of the dozen or so authors that contribute to the blog. You may not always agree with us, but you will have little doubt about where we stand on most issues. Please follow us on Twitter and FaceBook

08-09 Basketball General On the Record

58 Responses to OTR: Predict Pack’s ACC Record (with bonus imbalanced schedule stats)

  1. blpack 01/10/2009 at 9:31 PM #

    I’d love to see 8-8 or better, but it doesn’t appear to be in the cards. We aren’t very good and we get our share of the 4 teams that are good. Our guard play stinks and until that changes through practice, recruiting, an act of God, etc. we will continue to struggle.

  2. 61Packer 01/11/2009 at 9:02 PM #



  3. Wolf74 01/12/2009 at 7:13 AM #

    Considering coaching, lack of PG play and athletes, I would say most likely 3-13 or 4-12. This team could be a surprise and go 2-14 or 5-11, as it is that unpredictable.

  4. Classof89 01/12/2009 at 8:26 AM #

    Here’s another prediction to discuss: which team will get their initial win in ACC play first–the men or the women? My money is on the women (FSU January 15th). You think the bitching and moaning is bad now, wait until men lose at home to FSU (did you see them close the gap at the end of their game with Duke?). Fortunately, GaTech comes in two days later, one of the few teams that looks to be a bigger mess than us.

  5. packfanstk 01/12/2009 at 11:46 AM #


  6. packfanstk 01/12/2009 at 11:51 AM #

    Ever the optimist 9-7.

    1/10 @ Clemson L (0-1)
    1/13 Florida State W (1-1)
    1/17 Georgia Tech W (2-1)
    1/20 @ Duke L (2-2)
    1/24 @ Boston College W (3-2)
    1/27 Miami W (4-2)
    1/31 unc-ch W (5-2)
    2/8 @ Virginia Tech W (6-2)
    2/11 Wake Forest L (6-3)
    2/14 @ Georgia Tech W (7-3)
    2/18 @ unc-ch L (7-4)
    2/21 Virginia W (8-4)
    2/26 @ Wake Forest L (8-5)
    3/1 Maryland L (8-6)
    3/4 Boston College W (9-6)
    3/7 @ Miami L (9-7)

    edit to add: Beginning 6-2 including a win over the Holes will have everyone clamoring again about what a great coach Sidney is. Finishing 3-5 including a loss against Maryland will have everyone clamoring again about what a terrible coach Sidney is.

  7. 61Packer 01/12/2009 at 5:26 PM #

    This team is as likely to go 9-7 in the ACC this season as Wolfpack fans are to cheer for UNC.

    3-13, 4-12, 5-11, 6-10, 7-9, even 8-8, doesn’t matter. All that matters is that unless there is a DRASTIC change soon, State will be playing on Thursday when the ACC Tourney opens, and they won’t last long in Atlanta.

    Until we get an AD who will get rid of this lousy coaching staff and bring in a proven coach who can quickly turn this program in the right direction, even if it means a few more “down” seasons, forget seeing the Wolfpack ever again on the college basketball radar.

    This team at best is an NIT road team. The poor attendance numbers speak volumes about what’s going on. It’s ugly and it’s fixing to get big-time ugly.

  8. Wulfpack 01/12/2009 at 10:07 PM #

    “This team at best is an NIT road team. The poor attendance numbers speak volumes about what’s going on. It’s ugly and it’s fixing to get big-time ugly.”

    That’s a topic I feel hasn’t been discussed near enough. It seems to be getting worse. Have had several friends attend a few games this year and they have said it’s becoming a real bore going to games at the RBC. I’m all for a swich back to Reynolds though I know it’ll never happen.

Leave a Reply