It’s that time of year again! Time for you to go ‘On the Record’ with your Wolfpack perspectives and knowledge.
State opens the season tomorrow with an extremely difficult task on the road at Clemson (we’ve got your pre-game discussion) And, the schedule doesn’t necessarily get THAT much easier. You can view the imbalanced nature of the ACC’s schedule by clicking here. Note the following observation:
Pity poor N.C. State, who because of rivalries always draws UNC and Clemson twice a year, and this season has it compounded by facing BC twice and only getting road games against Duke and Clemson.
[Note: The author of ^that piece incorrectly referenced Clemson as NC State’s other natural rivalry. Wake Forest is actually NC State’s other partner for two games each season.]
If only that observation was a new observation! This is the fourth season of the conference’s imbalanced schedule and our own VaWolf has historically does a fantastic job of crunching the data. (For more detail click here and also feel free to click through the links to past entries.)
The following is the breakdown of the conference strength of schedule over the last three years. Herb Sendek coached NC State in 2006; Sidney Lowe is entering his third season as the Wolfpack’s Head Coach.
The Wolfpack’s ACC schedule this year shapes up as follows:
January 10 at Clemson
January 13 Florida State
January 17 Georgia Tech
January 20 at Duke
January 24 at Boston College
January 27 Miami (FL)
January 31 North Carolina
February 8 at Virginia Tech
February 11 Wake Forest
February 14 at Georgia Tech
February 18 at North Carolina
February 21 Virginia
February 26 at Wake Forest
March 1 Maryland
March 4 Boston College
March 7 at Miami (FL)
We’ll go with the following:
Sure losses: at Clemson, at Duke, at UNC, at Wake, UNC (0-4)
Probable loss: Wake (0-1)
Toss ups: the remaining 11 games
Splitting the remaining 11 games equally and with a bias to defending the home court would lead to the following toss-up wins:
- Georgia Tech
- Florida State
- Virginia
- @VT or @GT or @ BC (win one of these three)
- Boston College
- Maryland
If the Wolfpack can hold serve in a manner that puts us anywhere close to the above scenario then the following three games become the “swing/defining games†on the schedule:
- Miami in Raleigh
- Game #2 of the @VT or @GT or @ BC
- Game #3 of the @VT or @GT or @ BC
Coupling this schedule with what we know about the composition of this NC State roster and the importance of guard play in college basketball…then a 6-10 record should serve as an acceptable baseline with a 7-9 record or 5-11 record within the realm of possibility. Anything more or less would serve as a surprise.
