Wake Enters NCAA Tournament Discussion; State Mired in Point Guard Mess of Our Making

We set the stage in this entry last week that unless someone started claiming some scalps that the ACC would only have four participants in this year’s NCAA Tournament.

Wake Forest’s big win yesterday over the Duke Blue Devils is exactly the kind of statement and scalp that the Demon Deacons needed to propel themselves into the conversation. If the tournament started today the Demon Deacons would probably still be on the outside looking in…but the Deacs are a lot closer than they were before Sunday’s game.

As if NC State fans needed any further salt in our wounds, the play of Wake’s freshman point guard, Jeff Teague, continues to dazzle the league and underscore the importance of having a stud at the key position.

The play of Teague also underscores the price that NC State is paying for very poor talent evaluation at the position. The Wolfpack’s coaching staff obviously ‘out thought’ themselves over the last couple of years as they amassed three commitments for the position – Farnold Degand, Marques Johnson, Javier Gonzalez – while choosing to pass on names like Jai Lucas (Florida) and Chris Warren (Ole Miss).

Warren has been so spectacular that he has a whole list of articles in USA Today that are ‘tagged’ with his name. Last week Warren earned his third SEC Freshman of the Week honors

The Orlando, Fla., native poured in a career-high 26 points at Arkansas on Saturday, his fourth 20-point performance in league play. He single-handedly kept Ole Miss in the game, scoring 18 points in the second half, including 11 straight for the Rebels in the stretch run to cut a 12-point Razorback lead with just under three minutes remaining to a three-point edge with 51 seconds left in the game. The lightning-quick rookie drained six three-pointers (6-of-8), dished out five assists and made three steals in the game.

Warren ranks sixth in the SEC with 18.4 points per game in league play and ninth with a 16.4 average in all games. He also ranks third in assists and three-pointers in all games.

The 5-foot-10, 170-pound guard already seventh in school history with 64 three-pointers made this season, while his 345 points scored are sixth-most by a freshman in the Rebel program’s history.

Additionally, Lucas’ consistency at Florida led the Jacksonville newspaper to feature him last week.

The 5-foot-11 Lucas is averaging 2.4 assists per game, but in SEC play, that number jumps to 2.8 per game, and his 16 turnovers in 10 league games are the fewest among UF’s starters.

That’s proof of Lucas’ good decision-making, according to Donovan.

“He really tries not to turn it over, and generally the biggest problem when you have young guards that are freshmen like that [is] there’s going to be a lot of turnovers,” Donovan said. “So far, they’ve done a pretty good job of taking care of the basketball and understanding that, ‘You know what? If I don’t make the right play or I miss the right play, I’m better off holding onto the ball than I am throwing to somebody and getting it turned over.”

As BJD stated in this significantly important piece last week – Coach Lowe’s job may very well rest on the recruiting class that signs with NC State this coming November with no recruit more important that Raleigh’s very own John Wall at the point guard position.

But, allow me to add a little more to that while noting the obvious – if State lands wall and Trevor Ferguson does not graduate out (forget his ‘playing status’), then the Wolfpack will literally have SIX of THIRTEEN scholarships tied up in players who can play point guard if needed – Wall, Degand, Johnson, Ferguson, Gonzalez and Julius Mays. That is absurd. So, in addition to what State needs to sign in November, the program also desperately needs to do some ‘restructuring’ of scholarships allocation and spacing.

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07-08 Basketball Sidney Lowe

171 Responses to Wake Enters NCAA Tournament Discussion; State Mired in Point Guard Mess of Our Making

  1. tcthdi-tgsf-twhwtnc 02/18/2008 at 12:08 PM #

    Let me get this straight. The sky is falling because Javi isn’t a national story after being forced into a starting position 1.5 months ago?

  2. tcthdi-tgsf-twhwtnc 02/18/2008 at 12:08 PM #

    Let me get this straight. The sky is falling because Javi isn’t a national story after being forced into a starting position 1.5 months ago?

  3. triadwolf 02/18/2008 at 12:14 PM #

    The problem is not Javi, it is the PG position as a whole. Javi might end up being pretty good along with Degand, but they have not proven to be ACC starters yet. The real problem is the remaining guards don’t look to even be serviceable back ups.

  4. wolfpackpassion 02/18/2008 at 12:15 PM #

    okay folks other than florida state whom do we have a really good chance of beating with remaining schedule?

  5. gcpack 02/18/2008 at 12:20 PM #

    Virginia

  6. triadwolf 02/18/2008 at 12:21 PM #

    One thing to keep in mind with our PG production is that there is not a complementry guy at the 2 for either shooting or ball handling. To be fair our PG’s do not have much help – how much confidence would you have setting up anyone other than Fells for an outside shot? A good supporting cast around you certainly can make you look better and give you a whole lot more confidence.

  7. RBCRowdy 02/18/2008 at 12:22 PM #

    Can we wait until 2010 for Wall to get here?

    Even if we ‘ran a guy off’, would we even be in the running for a top pg? I don’t think so.

    It seems Lowe is putting all of his eggs in Wall’s basket.

  8. BillyVest 02/18/2008 at 12:23 PM #

    while choosing to pass on names like Jai Lucas (Florida) and Chris Warren (Ole Miss).

    We’re all pissed, but quit rumor mongering. We went after Lucas hard, but late, in the recruitment process and he chose another school. Same with Warren.

    I even think Warren paid us an official visit, if I remember correctly and had his choices narrowed down to us and Ole Miss. and he chose Ole Miss.

  9. Greywolf 02/18/2008 at 12:34 PM #

    wolfpackpassion says, “And our assistant coaches situation is extremely bad other than lary harris i can’t think of anyone of them who is worth their pay.”

    What is your thinking that has you say this? Coach Harris coaches our big men, right? As near as I can tell, we are not blocking out on defense, not getting many second chances, and not particularly effective in the paint except for JJ and either of US could have coached JJ)

    Javi has improved by anybody’s standard and Harris doesn’t coach him. I’m not saying Harris is not a good coach, just that I don’t see where you are looking to say either way.

  10. BillyVest 02/18/2008 at 12:34 PM #

    When Warren sits down to make a decision; he will look at the following things:

    “I want to look at playing time, their people, conference exposure, the academic side of it, coaches, and playing style. I like an up tempo team. I like to push it up the court.”

    Who gives Warren the best chance for early playing time?

    “I feel I can make an impact at all of the schools, but I can make a bigger impact at Ole Miss be

    From Scout.com interview. Warren chose Ole Miss over us. Lowe lost out on a recruit after a late start. He wanted depth this year and the ability to compete, so we went with what he felt were the best available people left – Johnson and Gonzalez. Both were reaches, but in an ideal world, Degand would be healthy and they’d only be getting spot minutes.

    If Lowe survives, I think the future is entirely based on the 2010 recruiting class, since it’ll be around 5 players total; one of those classes that can really take a program to another level.

  11. haze 02/18/2008 at 12:42 PM #

    I will not complain about Farnold, Javy or Mays. The first two have shown potential despite their youth. The last hasn’t even shown up yet and is, by all reports, capable of playing 2G (THANK GOD). MJ? Not so good and, like Bartoz, an out and out coaching error. MJ’s issues were accurately signaled by his TN experience, our recruitment of Javy and the fact that, despite a full year in our practices, he never sniffed the court before the Degand injury. Fergie is a different thing all together. He was a Sendek recruit. Some may wish we had his scholly back but, still, he is working hard and is clearly not considered anything but a desperation SG/PG by the current staff.

    The big miss wasn’t Lucas and Warren but Chris Wright. I don’t think we’d have gotten Lucas and Warren wasn’t a slam dunk guy. IIRC, he may have had some academic questions as well (old NC lang/math credit thing? Am I mis-remembering something?).

    Personally, I think we can weather a stretch with Degand/Javy/Mays manning PG, if other recruiting moves work out and the staff can get the team to work on D and the boards. However, we have no business offering anything but true studs @ PG for the 09/10 classes.

    Lastly, the only serious ray of light I see in our 09-11 talent base is increased athleticism. While that may bite us on shooting (recall Herb’s early years), Degand, Javy, Thomas, Williams and Leslie should be able to get in the faces of ACC foes. They just need to be motivated to do so.

  12. wolfpackpassion 02/18/2008 at 12:48 PM #

    SFN: Not turning this into a Sendek thread. Thanks.

  13. BillyVest 02/18/2008 at 12:52 PM #

    I’m not criticizing Lowe’s giving scholarships to players. If we didn’t offer Gonzalez or Johnson and went with only Degand, we’d basically be giving up this year as another rebuilding year. Our program has been good enough the last few years, that we don’t need to advertise that we’re in an extended rebuilding process.

  14. nycfan 02/18/2008 at 12:56 PM #

    ^ Looking back at the PackPride article on Warren’s visit, Warren himself said that NC State did NOT offer him on the visit and said they’d get back to him in a few days whether they would offer him. As I recall, they did not offer him and Ole Miss (who had offered him b/4 the State visit) beat out two mid-majors for his services. [link: http://northcarolinastate.scout.com/2/582136.html ]

    The odd thing about that is that State pursued Gonzalez in the following Spring, which makes it seem like Lowe & Co. were satisfied with point guards (at least in terms of deciding whether to offer Warren) in September(b/4 practice started) and felt quite differently in March, after they saw Degand and Johnson practice extensively.

    I doubt Lowe and Co. knew that Johnson would transfer to State in December when they hosted Warren in September, so I think it all means that Lowe did not believe Warren was good enough to merit a back-up PG scholarship (Towe recruited him and got him to visit State, so I assume he may have thought differently). Yet within a couple of months of accepting Johnson’s transfer from TN, State got a commit from a 3rd PG (Gonzalez).

    It does seem a little strange overall, but when you look at Warren alone, it doesn’t seem particularly strange that State decided not to offer a kid who had two mid-major offers and an offer from Ole Miss … seems to me that a lot of high major teams didn’t even take a sniff, so hard to blame Lowe & staff for taking a pass. Everyone misses kids all the time; these guys are not psychic. It may be painful to watch now, in light of State’s problems at the point, but I don’t think that is something that should be held against Lowe.

    The scramble to take Johnson and then Gonzalez, however, looks a lot more questionable, especially with another gem in the rough PG for next season …

  15. RickJ 02/18/2008 at 12:57 PM #

    BillyVest – If you will go to the Chris Warren profile on scout it shows that NC State did not offer him a scholarship. He can’t turn down what was never offered. Of course it is possible he would have turned us down if we had offered but most people don’t believe that.

    “So, in addition to what State needs to sign in November, the program also desperately needs to do some ‘restructuring’ of scholarships allocation and spacing.”

    This is a painful but necessary step in our dilemma. It is also the type of analysis that makes this such a great site. It is interesting that Wake Forest was mentioned in this same entry. Remember these names:

    Richard Joyce
    Jeremy Ingram
    Kevin Swinton
    Anthony Gurley
    Shamaine Dukes
    Casey Crawford

    All six of these fine players have been jettisoned by Wake Forest to a lower level of Division 1 play to make room for higher level talent. Have you heard one iota of criticism of Wake as a result? We would not be so lucky but it needs to happen nevertheless.

  16. wolfpackpassion 02/18/2008 at 1:00 PM #

    hate to tell everyone we are in a rebuildign year this year and last and next year and after that!!
    the scholarships are gone to players whom are not really acc caliber.
    other than hickson who is acc caliber and he is gone gone gone this year. Ever hear him after a game he doesn’t like the situation he is in right now and he talks like a senior. Where is the leadership on this team? yeah, i can take the losses liek last year but this team depsite pguards has way too much talent up front when sportcasters are saying that we ave some good pieces meaning talent then we should no be 15-10 and 4-7 acc,imagine if you take away the nccu,pre,william mary etcs from our schedule what kind of a team and season would this be?
    does anyone know what our schedule is like next year and what kind of roster we will have,?

  17. Trip 02/18/2008 at 1:02 PM #

    Major props to Wake for exceeding every expectation, I can’t think of any school in the ACC more deserving.

    I’m excited about Thomas. I was hoping to see him play this year, his freakish athleticism would be a shot of adrenaline to this team. One of the guys I met recently went to high school with Thomas and had nothing but good things to say about him, he seems like a real class act both on the court and in the classroom. From what he told me he was an outstanding rebounder as he had to play as a Center before he transferred to a prep school. Here’s hoping he has a full recovery and comes back next year hungry.

    As far as PG’s go… man, it sucks that MJ isn’t working out. I really think he’s better suited as a 3 with his current skill set. Too bad we have a logjam of forwards right now, and i really doubt he’d get any playing time over Grant/Horner. It looks like Sid and Co realized after he transferred “Oh shit that jumper is atrocious, we need someone else… Uhh… who’s left? Lopez? I thought he played baseball?”

    Smith is a huge question mark, I like that kid. Plays hard, grabs rebounds, shoots well, the only negative to him is defense, which is taught best on the court for 40 minutes. I would have rather Sid redshirted him this year rather than throwing him in randomly every 3 games.

  18. wolfpackpassion 02/18/2008 at 1:06 PM #

    well if the season is lost,which it is, then we sould go with t smith,fergurson hickson,javi and mj and let them play make mistakes and lose and being fells and whomeve deserves it off the bench or when we are being drilled weds go with the forementioned line up

  19. eas 02/18/2008 at 1:11 PM #

    From what I have seen, I still think Fergie is ALOT better option than Marques Johnson. I never thought that could be possible (especially after Fergie’s season last year) but Marques Johnson contributes less than Costner! Javi continues to be the best option a PG (even though he isn’t ACC quality). What in the world was someone thinking with MJ….He cannot handle the ball, he has NO left hand and his shot looks like SHAQ’s!!! I just continue to wonder why people like Fergie and Smith continue to give good efforts (and let’s be honest…less mistakes) and get rewarded by riding the pine. We continue to play the same way everytime because we have the same line up. We keep hoping thing’s will change (how many times have we heard the next game is a “must win”) but they are not. If we loose with a team that plays hard and tries consistantly to change things up than we have improved. If we do the same things than we are only accepting what we have and living with it.

    We still end up playing the slow half court offense that the previous group (no names needed) had becuase the only difference is that now there is no movement.

    I (like so many others) really want to see SID and crew succeed and bring tradition back but the bottom line is when you get paid serious coin, then you have to produce! Or at a minimum you have to have a team that is very motivated and believe in the same goal….I just don’t see it here.

    The coaching staff may need an adjustment at the end of the year. Whatever they are working on…..Scrap it and start over. Speed up the offense, have some movement, bring in the full court pressure and play intense. The first person who slows down…sit them down. If they get pissed…they can get over it or leave. We could sure use a few extra scholarships, so maybe they will leave (Costner? Johnson?).

    I just hope to see some change in the line up Wednesday but I am sure it will be the same 5 (Fells, Grant, Hickson, McCauley, Javi)

  20. choppack1 02/18/2008 at 1:11 PM #

    I’m surprised no one weighed in on the idea of a different line-up. Which 5 do you think is tougher to defend and can defend better:
    Javi
    Fells
    Grant
    McCauley
    Hickson

    Javi
    Ferguson/Johnson
    Fells
    Grant
    Hickson

    Obviously, the dilemna here is what happens to our 2G spot, but I think – especially if Ferguson could produce – a lineup like this would really spread the floor and open up some better looks. I love the idea of Grant having to be guarded by someone at the 4 spot – and I think Fells ball handling problems would be less problematic at the 3 spot too.

    As for D – Grant already rebounds both McCauley and Costner, so I don’t think we lose much there.

  21. SMD 02/18/2008 at 1:17 PM #

    While Javi may turn out to be a serviceable ACC pg, the other problem with our point play is the substitutions.

    It looks like Coach Lowe has certain points in the game that he is going to substitute at come hell or high water. Around the 16 minute mark on Saturday, he did it again, pulling Javi and Fells for Johnson and Horner.

    I don’t get this PG by committee approach. Why not leave Javi in the game and let him truly get a rhythm going? THEN – when he needs a brief rest, let him indicate that and put in Johnson.

    And don’t even start me on having Horner AND Fergie in at the same time. Unless Horner/Fergie and yes, Costner are producing points, then I say give their minutes to players who are not defensive liabilities like Harris and Smith.

  22. LRM 02/18/2008 at 1:42 PM #

    One thing Sid’s got going is that we have the sharpest uniforms in the conference. I like the traditional look; simple, yet elegant.

  23. choppack1 02/18/2008 at 2:09 PM #

    SMD – That’s a good point on the substitution patterns. We’ve seen this “red team” the last 2 games – we’ve lost the last 2 games. I’d say that right now, if we don’t have Grant or Hickson in the game – we’re in big trouble – and we’re just buying time.

  24. clem haskins 02/18/2008 at 2:11 PM #

    Check out thomas getting up in high school!

    search for johnny thomas great dunks volume 1

    I taught johnny at west carteret and he is a great athlete and a great person. He reminds me a lot of Grundy but he has more hops. He was able to dunk in middle school and he can make free throws for christ sakes.

    j. thomas will be wonderful to have back next year and he will make nc state basketball more exciting! I hope he can stay healthy.

    I took him to a leadership camp that consisted of the best male and female athletes in eastern north carolina between his 9th and 10th grade year and kids that were older than him just naturally looked up to him. I have been coaching and teaching for 10 years and I know he can be successful at state. He did have to play center some in high school before moving to prep school. Keep an eye on him.

  25. Wait_Til_This_Year 02/18/2008 at 2:14 PM #

    Degand and Javi could be very solid at some point next year. Unless Sidney has a commitment from a GREAT prospect, he should wait and not continue to use scholarships on PGs.

    The problem is that without instant improvement, people will be calling for Sid to get the axe, which may force his hand prematurely to fill spots. That’s one reason it’s a bad idea to talk about letting him go so soon. Another reason, which has been stated before, is that even if he were the wrong choice for HC, other coaches would not want to sign at a school that didn’t even give him a chance to begin with. It should take at least 3 years before we start to even think about switching coaches, and 4 before we actually do it IMO. Lastly, he is coming in from the NBA, which does mean he will need to adjust to coaching in college. So if we’re seeing flaws in his coaching style, keep in mind that it’s very possible for him to learn from his mistakes.

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