Who’s On Track?

07-08 Basketball General18

Well let’s broaden our horizons and take a look around the ACC and see who is on track to make the NCAAT. Usually, I divide the teams into three groups….”IN”, “On the Bubble”, and “Out”. My criteria for dividing the teams into these groups are based on the following benchmarks:

IN – RPI rank <40 and at least a 0.500 record in conference play.
Bubble – RPI rank 40-75 or a losing record in conference play
OUT – RPI rank > 75

One of the main advantages of writing for a blog is that some analyses only have to be done once. If you want to know how or why I am using those criteria, then take a look at this entry: Clearing the Bubble

Let’s look at the conference as a whole and then a few additional remarks about the various teams.

ACC Outlook on 2-15

This is the first time that I have ever done this sort of analysis and had no ACC teams on the bubble. IMO, if you’re not already IN…then you have alot of work to do.

UNC/Duke
These two teams are playing for seeding in the NCAAT. They have a strong SOS, strong RPI, and are at the top of the conference. Enough said (before I begin to puke).

Clemson
I can’t imagine any analysis that would put Clemson anywhere other than comfortably into the NCAAT at this point of the season. They have a strong SOS, a much improved OOC schedule (compared to past years), and a good RPI ranking.

Their list of negatives is pretty small and will probably only affect their NCAAT seeding (at worst).
– “Bad” loss to UNCC (#91) at home.
– 1-5 record against teams in the RPI top 50
– Free throw shooting. (OK, this won’t affect getting into the NCAAT…just how long they will stay.)

Maryland
A strict application of my benchmarks would place Maryland on the bubble…but I’m listing them as comfortably in the NCAAT. For a team that is using 10 of 13 scholarships in their freshman and sophomore classes, their OOC schedule was probably a little too tough. Their 10-5 OOC record is holding down their RPI a little.

But I can easily see double-digit conference wins with games remaining against FSU, VT, Miami, WF, UVA, and Clemson (at home). Thus I think that it is safe to say that UMD has survived the rough start of the season and is looking good for making the NCAAT…even though their record vs RPI Top 50 is only 1-3.

Wake Forest
Over the summer, I was expecting WF to be at the bottom of the conference. However, they have been playing much better than anything I have seen out of Winston since Chris Paul left. However their putrid, Sendekian OOC schedule (rank #261), has dragged their RPI beyond the bubble at this point.

Their remaining schedule (in order) consists of Duke, UNC, UMD, GT, VT, and NCSU. It’s hard to project a final conference record of anything better than 8-8. Their record against the RPI top 50 is 2-3, with wins against BYU and Miami….neither of which is likely to impress anyone.

WF probably needs to finish at 8-8 and win two games in the ACCT to make the NCAAT. Even if they fall short of that goal, I think that Wake fans should still feel pretty good about their team and their new coach.

Virginia Tech
I have told my VT co-workers that I have never been more wrong about a coach than I was when Seth Greenburg was hired. There was absolutely nothing in his resume that gave me any clue of how successful that he would be in Blacksburg…and that has continued into this year. He lost his senior back court to graduation and his best recruit for this year backed out after the tragic shooting on campus last spring….and they are still sitting at 0.500 in the conference with six games left to play.

However in some respects, their results this year are a function of the conference schedule that VT has played. Compare VT’s OOC SOS to State’s (182 vs 184)…and then look at the overall SOS (72 vs 43). So without even looking at the teams played, we can see that VT has had a pretty easy time with their conference schedule.

VT’s remaining games are against UNC, UMD, GT, BC, WF, and Clemson. So I would lump them into the exact same category as WF….8-8 for a best case conference record and needing two wins in the ACCT to make the NCAAT.

Georgia Tech
Earlier this year, one announcer was blaming GT’s overall record on a tough OOC schedule that was created with the thoughts that players who left early for the NBA would still be in Atlanta. When you look at losses to Indiana (#30), Vanderbilt (#12), Kansas (#5), and UConn (#9), this line of reasoning seems to make sense. However, this line of reasoning completely falls apart when you look at losses to UNCG (#170), Winthrop (#113), and Georgia (#121).

The bottom line is that GT is the typical middle-of-the-road ACC team….some tough losses, some horrible losses, and a few good wins. Or maybe we should make that win singular. With State dropping out the RPI Top 50, GT is 1-8 with their one signature win coming against Notre Dame (#26).

GT has seven games remaining against Miami, UVa, VT, Duke, WF, Clemson, and BC. So their fate is still in their own hands. Last night’s thumping by Clemson certainly stung, but there is plenty of time and opportunities left for GT to make the NCAAT….even though their overall record is currently one game below 0.500.

Speaking of overall record…GT fans might want to look at Indiana in 2005.
10-6 in conference
Overall SOS – #13
OOC SOS – #11
3-9 against the RPI Top 50
15-13 overall
1st round loss in Big 10 Tourney
And no NCAAT bid.

NC State
I frequently disagree with Jay Bilas and last night was no exception…State has absolutely no quality wins this year. State is 1-5 this year against the RPI Top 50, with Miami as the lone win (or should I say “gift”?). Wins against Villanova (#67), Davidson (#54), Cincinnati (#76), Seton Hall (#68), and their ACC wins do not impress me…nor do I expect them to impress anyone else.

There is simply no reason to discuss NC State’s NCAAT chances until this fact changes. I hope that it does…I just don’t expect it to.

BC, Miami, FSU, UVA
The chances of any of these teams making the NCAAT are so slim that it is hardly worth discussing. At least we have documented their current condition as a starting point for future discussions if any of them make a miraculous comeback this season.

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

07-08 Basketball General

18 Responses to Who’s On Track?

  1. VaWolf82 02/15/2008 at 3:16 PM #

    YES!!!!!!!!!

    Tables are back!!!!!!!!

    Many thanks to Alpha and RAWFS!!!!!

  2. 44legend 02/15/2008 at 3:37 PM #

    Villanova is a top 100 RPI win for us also. At home we stand a puncher’s chance for a big upset…hopefully two.

    All the talk of the season being over is 1 week premature, despite the current teeth nashing.

    VaWolf: Thanks. Added to list of wins that fails to impress.

  3. BladenWolf 02/15/2008 at 3:54 PM #

    The analysis is very strong and I agree with all the numbers…damnit.

    I don’t see any of the others making a run on the table in their remaining conference games, which would need to happen for the two pseudo-bubble teams (WF and VT) to advance.

    Good thread VaWolf.

  4. Wulfpack 02/15/2008 at 4:11 PM #

    Great analysis.

    If I had to bet, I say five ACC teams get in. We know the four + Wake. I think Tech could win 9 conference games but their overall record is bad. I understand they have played a difficult schedule, but the head scratchers you mention will due the Jackets in.

    Basically, the fifth team will be whatever “middle of the road” team decides to show up and play in the ACC tourney, if any. I think it will be Wake. They are getting much better and they are playing with a purpose (for Skip).

    If the conference only gets four bids, then that is just plain wrong. But again, it’s all about how you do relative to your peers. You’ve got to have a winning conference record and some solid non-conference wins.

  5. 44legend 02/15/2008 at 4:29 PM #

    another year of owning the big 10 without dividends for the conference. How many are they projected to get in?

    It’d be nice to have Clemson make some noise to elevate the “other” teams…after Sat. of course

  6. Wulfpack 02/15/2008 at 4:33 PM #

    ^5

    http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

  7. Mr O 02/15/2008 at 5:19 PM #

    Wake’s record wouldn’t be 5-5 in the ACC if they had played our schedule. They still haven’t played Duke or UNC this year. If they had played our schedule, then they would be sitting at 3-7 at best. How would we feel about Wake at 3-7?

    Wake has played:
    VPI (home) 5-5
    at BC 4-6
    at Maryland 6-4
    FSU home 3-7
    at Clemson 6-4
    Miami home 3-6
    at NC State 4-6
    GT home 4-5
    UVA home 1-9
    at FSU 3-7

    5 home, 5 away

    overall record of Wake’s opponents – 39-59

    @UNC 8-2
    @CLemson 6-4
    Miami 3-6
    GT 4-5
    @FSU 3-7
    @Duke 10-0
    Wake 5-5
    VPI 5-5
    @Maryland 6-4
    @BC 4-6

    4 home, 6 away

    Overall record of State’s opponents – 50-44

  8. Mr O 02/15/2008 at 5:22 PM #

    Sorry, should be 54-44 and we have played 6 of 10 on the road.

    Wake’s opponets are 39-59 and have played five at home and five on the road.

  9. BillyVest 02/15/2008 at 5:31 PM #

    I the heavens part and we win our home games, I think that’d move us into the NCAA tournament. That’d give us three quality wins and two against top 5 teams.

    You hear that heavens – part, open up, – and let us win.

    On a side note, no other ACC teams, other than Duke, Carolina, and Clemson and Maryland are good enough that a win would get us over the hump and back into NCAA tournament consideration. Even going 4-2 or 5-1 against the rest of the ACC for our remaining games wouldn’t give us a quality win that’d improve our chances of making it to the NCAA’s.

    That’s the only silver lining of having to play Clemson, Duke and Carolina again: we have a chance to redeem ourselves, if we work really hard.

  10. newt 02/15/2008 at 5:34 PM #

    Gary Williams is probably the best coach in the ACC depending upon what metrics you use.

  11. Wulfpack 02/15/2008 at 6:17 PM #

    Mr. O,

    I hear you. A 3-7 Wake would surely be out of the picture. Wake has played an easier ACC schedule. The difference, though, between Wake and NC State today is that Wake appears to be improving and playing with some passion.

    I do not see GT or VT improving to the extent that Wake is. That is why I think Wake could, potentially, with a strong ACC Tourney showing, be the fifth team to get a bid.

  12. RBCRowdy 02/15/2008 at 6:21 PM #

    ^Wake also has the #1 recruiting class next year.

    At first I couldn’t believe the ACC would send 4 teams to the NCAAT, but you can’t argue with the facts

  13. 44legend 02/15/2008 at 7:10 PM #

    I think 8-8 gets us in this year providing finishing at least 9-9 after the tourney. The historical precedence for leaving a .500 ACC team home is pretty low.

  14. BillyVest 02/15/2008 at 7:55 PM #

    This year is different. The other big conferences have multiple schools with winning conference records. The 8-8 ACC schools haven’t done anything to prove they are better than a 9-7 PAC-10 or Big East school.

    To go 8-8 and get into the NCAA’s requires wins against Duke or Carolina.

  15. werncstate 02/15/2008 at 9:21 PM #

    vawolf you should have discussed Miami. Look at their remaining schedule. They should finish 8-8 at worst which at least will put them on the bubble.

    VaWolf: This wasn’t meant to be the final word on this subject. If Miami starts moving in the right direction, then I’ll change their position.

  16. Ed89 02/15/2008 at 11:29 PM #

    ^^The 8-8 ACC schools haven’t done anything to prove they are better than a 9-7 PAC-10 or Big East school

    disagree to an extent. the last place acc team, uva, put a whoopin on arizona at arizona, and they’ve won one game in acc play, so although not an 8-8 team, we’ve proven that our last place team can beat one of their top teams. plus, the big 10 and pac 10 are overrated in my book. if the acc gets only 4 in, if i’m the acc commissioner, i raise h&^%.

  17. b 02/16/2008 at 1:24 AM #

    Likely Miami is 7-9 and out, VT is 7-9 and out, Wake 7-9 out, GT 7-9 and out as well.

    VT are the only ones who seem to have a chance to get on the bubble. Sure they have UNC, Clem and MD left, but they also have home dates with Wake, GT, and BC, all winnable to get to 8-8. But I doubt it. Even at 17-13 they will need to win in the tournament as well.

    Miami with McClinton and fairly solid inside play could upset someone from the top 4, but if he’s cold they can (and probably will) lose to anyone.

    Wake has too much on their plate their next four with Duke, @UNC, Md, @GT. Then they play VT before the season-ender.

    GT has a more winnable schedule without UNC and Maryland, but they just don’t impress me too much. They’ll slip up a couple of times amongst Miami, Uva, @VT, Wake, and @ BC. And likely lose to Clemson and Duke.

  18. pacman23 02/16/2008 at 2:47 PM #

    VT is actually making our game at UNC pale in comparison to the thumping they’re taking right now. And this is UNC without Lawson.

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