Forum Replies Created
Joel Berry says we aren’t UNCheat’s rival.
That’s been true for about 25 years. I’m not sure why it matters who says it.
He won at 94% clip. Now some will say it’s just a prep school and has no relevance. I say huey.
Most schools (with the exception of State) hire a coach that has been successful at his current school and then hope that success translates to the next level. But over the years, there have been a lot of coaches that were very successful at mid-major schools that ultimately failed in the ACC. I never tire of pointing out that success at Xavier has translated into success at a higher level for a lot of coaches…but not for Pete Gillen.
If it was easy to tell who was going to be able to bring their success with them, then there wouldn’t be so many firings every spring.
Ya’ll did notice the ‘Cuse did us a favor last night in Louisville, didn’t you?
Great news that we are “in” according to dance card. We are kind of at a high point in terms of conference record, so we need to maintain from here on out to stay on the right side of the bubble.
I won’t feel comfortable until the RPI is in the mid-50s because alot of my “bad” examples have RPI’s in the 60s.
I’m afraid that an RPI in the 60s will require a Thursday win in the ACCT. Luckily, no one other than UVA looks unbeatable right now.
fwiw3… Keatts years on the bench at Louisville with Patino are the rock on which we now stand… I’m thinking this may have been underestimated in our ‘expections’.
Maybe. But Sendek sat on Pitino’s bench too. Not every student is capable of mastering the “course”.02/05/2018 at 3:19 PM in reply to: Andy Katz’s Power 36: Predicting who’s in and out of the NCAA tournamnt Feb. 5 #130032
L’ville only has the one Top 50 win. But the first Dance Card of the season just came out today and they’re comfortably in (10 spots above the burst point).
There’s a lot of basketball left to be played, so its a little early to start penalizing teams for the lack of big wins. IIRC, in Sendek’s first trip to the NCAAT the only win they had against an NCAA team was #1 Maryland in the ACCT.
ESPN straightened out their issues if anyone cares.
Here’s their summary for the ACC02/05/2018 at 2:32 PM in reply to: Andy Katz’s Power 36: Predicting who’s in and out of the NCAA tournamnt Feb. 5 #130028
They’re on 78/78 brackets at the Bracket Matrix with an average see of 8.47.
First Dance Card of the season released:
If you don’t know what I’m talking about, I wrote about them last year:
Here’s their site:
I do think, based on our previous “conversations” that you (like me) just enjoy this sort of exercise, so you’d probably do most of this for your own satisfaction, even without a convenient podium.
Thanks for the kind words.
It’s strange that you mention this as I was wondering just this morning exactly what I would do if SFN went away. I don’t have an answer to that hypothetical, but I would never had studied the selection process as much as I have if not for SFN.
On paper Keat’s first-year team is middle of the ACC (which translates into an NIT team or a bubble NCAA team [these largely overlap]) on paper, which is higher than pre-season predictions.
When a bad team loses its top three scorers, expecting that team to improve to the middle of the ACC seems silly to me. Maybe it’s just a minor nitpick, but KK built this team with very little to start with.
While I’m certainly happy with exceeding expectations, don’t forget that UVA over-corrected with Pete Gillen. He exceeded expectations when they were low enough, but could never really move into the top-half of the conference. This year is great, but the expectation for the next five years should be for State to permanently move into the top half of the conference, with occasional forays into the two-round bye territory. When that’s accomplished, then we’ll know that we’ve got the right coach.
Another thing we don’t talk about is that for generations NCState attracted smart kids from all 100 counties who for one reason or another could not or would not attend another Big Four School.
That certainly didn’t apply to my era. That more accurately describes the kids who went to ECU than State or UNC.
Teddy must be under the weather today. He hasn’t been trying to put in a show (yet).
Nice stretch of offensive rebounds.
Throw in Jamie luckie and you would know that the fix was in.
It I be interesting to see where our rpi ends up if we win 5 out of the next 9. It has gone from 145 to 65 in a month.
I saw a reference to RPI Wizard at PP and googled it. It gives a percentage chance of winning each remaining game and the option to pick a win or loss and then estimate an RPI based on its projections with your inputs. I played around with it for a little and think State has a good chance of being a lock before the ACCT with 5-4 down the stretch.
I think this is the correct link
Obviously, the committee doesn’t use a straight numerical formula. Their power lies in keeping the process a back-room thing. They are perfectly capable of creating a measurement which would create transparency and let exactly everything they need to do to move themselves into an at large bid. That they haven’t shows that they’d favor the backroom process.
If I had a say, I wouldn’t turn the decision making over to a formula either. From my point of view, there are too many variables to ever feel comfortable that you had adequately accounted for all of them. The approach that the NCAA uses does allow room for humans to occasionally make a mistake. But by making it a committee decision, it gives the Selection Committee the opportunity to over ride a mistake that was inadvertently buried in the “formula”.
We agree on far more things that we disagree on. But it seems like we have this conversation almost every year…and that’s OK with me. The one thing that I would change about the selection process is to install some type of independent review to catch the mistakes that creep in from time to time. If nothing else, it would give the committee chairman a chance to get his reasoning straight before going on national TV to be picked apart by the media.
Kstate has 1 win versus a team currently ranked- Oklahoma. And they only beat 2 teams that were ranked when they beat them-Tcu and Oklahoma.
AP rankings have no effect on the selection process and neither does a “old” rank (AP or RPI) that an opponent had when the game was played. The Selection Committee is only going to look at the current info when the selection process starts. So if Clemson tanks because of recent injuries…or if ND continues to tank, their final ranking is what the committee will use.
I like realtimerpi better than ESPN.
I used to read Palm (now at cbssports.com) when he ran his own RPI site. Assuming that he puts in as much work now as he did then, I trust his numbers. For an example, he talked about asking the NCAA questions when his numbers differed with their’s and making adjustments when necessary…and on occasion the NCAA adjusted theirs. I say all of that to say that CBS seems to agree with realtimerpi pretty closely which gives me confidence in both of their numbers.
I use espn because they give me the RPI summary table for the entire conference. I used to create that table by copying the values from CBS which took a lot of time. I plan on using the numbers from CBS when I attempt a more detailed discussion on the ACC bubble teams….not so much for the RPI ranking of the team in question, but rather for the ranking of their wins.
If life will get off of me a little, I hope to do an entry on the new quadrant layout from the NCAA. If anyone hasn’t heard about it, Top 25, Top 50, Top 100 wins, etc are being replaced by quadrants. The standard for a given quadrant win is less for neutral and away games, thus giving more value to road/neutral wins.
Quadrant 1: Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75; Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160; Neutral 101-200; Away 136-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-plus; Neutral 201-plus; Away 241-plus.
As far as I can tell, anyone writing articles about the NCAA is going to use the quadrants for the selection process is just guessing. One of the things to look for this year is a selection that you wouldn’t have made under the old system.
The professors behind The Dance Card haven’t written anything so far this year. I’m interested to see what they are going to do with what is claimed to be a new selection process.
Cuse shouldn’t be any trouble although that game is up in the frozen North…
After watching State play against Pitt’s zone, I’m not looking forward to playing SYR.
4 min of UNC game highlights
13 min of UNC game highlights
Congrats to Al!
Of course the ACC tourney is still there too.
With the staggered start, it’s hard to blatantly put out a number of ACCT wins needed to clear the Bubble. I look at it like this:
Tuesday wins are virtually worthless.
Wed wins might be noteworthy, but most aren’t. (The 8-9 game winner probably beat another Bubble Team.)
Thurs wins will always be valuable.
I prefer to wait until Sunday before the ACCT starts to project number of tourney wins required for the Bubble teams.