(12) NC STATE vs (5) SAINT LOUIS Preview

Rick wrote:

Jigs,That is good work. I imagine this is the type of information Brad Stevens used to use so effectively.Jigs is our Moneyball

I love that movie/book. I believe stats can’t tell you everything but if you don’t have the time to watch film and study a team, especially multiple teams, then tempo free stats can give you a good picture of who a team is.

I remember a story about Jim Larranaga after he took over Miami and had a team meeting asking the players what they wanted to accomplish the next year, then asked them how good they considered themselves at various things like rebounding. The answers all came back they thought they did pretty good, that’s when Jim broke out their Offensive Rebounding and Defensive Rebounding Rates and showed them they were one of the worst in the country. Then he showed them the rebounding rates of the final four teams and that drove the message home. The next year Miami’s rebounding rate increased dramatically because the players were now focused on it and had a quantifiable measurement of what was actually good.

Nicole Auerbach (usatoday)
Jim Larranaga’s use of analytics gives Miami secret weapon

He doesn’t remember how and when and why he was introduced to the world of advanced statistics.

He turns to his long-time assistant Chris Caputo in the hallway and asks about the first time they found kenpom.com, a website devoted to college basketball analytics. Caputo can’t remember, either. Maybe five years ago? Definitely after their staff discovered Synergy Sports, video-scouting software that compiles intricately detailed data on every team from every game situation imaginable.

[snip]

“If I’m going to be good, I’m going to judge myself against other players who are really, really good,” Larranaga said. He carried that into coaching. As an assistant at Virginia, he charted the performances of various lineups to figure out the most effective group of five. Compare, compare, compare. Then go with what works. Video might show him that now. Or a sheet of numbers from kenpom.com.

The use of such tools has propelled Miami to unprecedented success in the Atlantic Coast Conference this season. The Hurricanes’ 13-0 start in league play was the best of any team since 1998-99, and a win Saturday at No. 3 Duke would clinch the ACC regular-season title in this, Larranaga’s second year with the team.

“The thing with Coach is, as long as he’s been doing this, he’s never stopped learning,” Caputo said. “You’re looking, searching for things that will give you a bit of an edge. I think it was just word of mouth — there’s no great story.

“Looking at a team on a sheet, it’s a concise way of understanding. … A lot of times, you ask someone how they did on a test. They say, ‘Good.’ Well, what does that mean? A ‘C’? That’s pretty good, right? Not if everybody in the class got an ‘A’. Or I got a ‘C’, but everybody failed the test. You try to see the things you value … and then see where that ranks within your league and nationally. That tells you what your team is like.”

The Miami players hear about advanced statistics more than they see the numbers themselves. They aren’t given statistical printouts; they don’t get bogged down in the details. Their coaches tell them the important ones. This team is 50th in tempo, that team is 300th. This one is in the top 10 in offensive rebounding, that one turns the ball over on just 14% of possessions.

“They understand rank very well,” assistant coach Eric Konkol said. So the coaches toss the key stats in with normal prep work, like talking about opponents’ tendencies or watching video. Together, it provides a full picture of what the ‘Canes will be up against. Miami scouts its opponents, but it also self-scouts, tracking where it stacks up against the nation’s best to motivate itself.

Said senior Julian Gamble: “They give us those types of statistics to let us know where we are and where we need to improve. You want to be the best, and numbers don’t lie. If you say you’re not No. 1 in the country in something you want to be, you know you have something to improve on.”

Larranaga and his staff emphasize points per possession; it’s a good way to stress defense, something that players can rely on even when shots aren’t falling on a given night. On Tuesday, prior to the Virginia Tech game, Gamble recited a sentence that would please his coaches: “We’re 16-2 when we hold teams under one point per possession.” Make that 17-2 after the win over the Hokies.

Miami is ranked sixth in the country in defensive efficiency, 39th in offensive efficiency and 26th in turnover rate — all significant improvements from two seasons ago.

This lingo, while new to the Hurricanes, is far from foreign from those at George Mason, where Larranaga spent 14 seasons before coming to Miami in April 2011.

“He was innovative,” George Mason athletics director Tom O’Connor said. “He was focused on (advanced statistics), but that didn’t override the fact that he still had to go out there and teach offense and defense. It’s good to have all the statistics, and it can definitely be a major plus. I think he saw that early on. He’s always been ahead of the curve if he sees something that can help his program be successful.”