Football Schedule Analysis

Yes, I’ve finally had enough caffeine and motivation/shame to force myself to sit down and do this. For a chance (Added Note: I am omitting 2013, when Doeren simply had no chance, so much so that I had blacked it out and forgotten he had been here 3 years instead of 2, getting old is a bitch and a half), Doeren isn’t squarely behind the 8 ball in how the schedule flows, as I will elaborate below…

William & Mary (Thur 1 Sep, 7:30 – ESPN3)

Huzzah, we get the opener right. 9 days to correct the mistakes before a more formidable foe. A Thursday night kickoff that can’t be moved to noon by the Swoffy cabal to torture season ticket holders (and anyone else nuts enough to show up). The open questions we hope and need to see answered here – 1) can the OL be something other than a dumpster fire? and 2) can we identify a credible, good starting QB? For “ok” will not do, NC State never has and in my opinion, never will be any good without good QB play. For reference, look at the post-Philip Rivers side that boasted the most wolven defensive talent (at least in terms of NFL draft assets) ever…6-5.

Win probability – 99%

at Pitt County Community College and Battery Tossing Academy (Sat 10 Sep, Noon – ESPNU)

This is really stretching the “U” by ESPN, but oh well. Full confession, my oldest kid will be at this game as a freshman, cheering for the bad people. She asked me if I wanted to come, to which I said “hell no” (other expletives omitted). But if you are to play this stupid game, which offers zero strategic benefit to NC State and great value to the opposition (especially played at their dirt track racing arena)…this is the ideal time. It will always be EZU’s Super Bowl, but at least it won’t be watered down by coming in the middle of, or God help us, AFTER the ACC schedule. It will be the first legitimate opponent, the first “hostile crowd” test, and that will help our guys be up for it. And unlike 2014 and 2015, we get out first taste of “game speed” at the same time as our opposition, rather than being hopelessly behind the curve (which cost us at least the VPI game last year). Hiding your weaknesses never helps you. Get out there and play football. Hit somebody, see what you are made of. The kids want that.

Win probability – 55%

Old Dominion (Sat 17 Sep, 6:00 – ESPN3)

I probably find this fixture a bit trickier than most. But we could be a bit beat up after the road trip, or feeling a bit too good about ourselves. But in the end, it’s still a home game that we should win. Good scheduling, as it is a step up from the cupcake of the opener.

Win probability – 85%

The bye comes here, at a pretty good time, in my view. Three very different games for the coaches to analyze and make corrections. None of the possible losses would ruin or define the season.

Wake Forest (Sat 1 Oct, TBA)

Getting the Deacs at home off the bye…manna from heaven. Doeren starts 1-0 in ACC play this go ’round, without question.

Win probability – 95%

Notre Dame (Sat 8 Oct, TBA)

Time for shit to get real, yes? And again, the timing is perfect. Confidence should be high, the line should have gelled if ever it will. National pundits have written State off here, noting that under Doeren, “State has never beaten anyone of stature” (paraphrased). Yeah, but let me ‘splain. First, he inherited a vast talent gap. Year ThreeFour is the first time you can really start grading him with a red pen. Second, the teams that NC State has gotten blitzed by are the same that ND struggles with – speed teams. When the other guy can just run past you and score at will…that’s a limiting reagent. The Irish don’t have that, and have mudded around with much lesser sides than NC State, in much less hostile venues. Their record has been padded again and again by playing the dregs of the B1G and other slow, slow programs. NC State gets up for statement-type games, and this will qualify. I thought of this as a 30-35% shot going in, but once I saw the schedule layout, I am upgrading it further…

Win probability – 40%

at Clemson (Sat 15 Oct, TBA)

There are games I am optimistic about, and then there is going into Death Valley the week after playing Notre Dame. Cover your rectal orifices, boys.

Win probability – 10%

at Louisville (Sat 22 Oct, TBA)

Hey, this is a challenging little stretch here, eh? That said, we seem to play the Cardinals tough, and they don’t have the overwhelming personnel advantage that Clemson does. Still, the Fighting Petrinos are the best-coached side in the ACC, and will be a tough hill to climb.

Win probability – 25%

Boston College (Sat 29 Oct, TBA)

Isn’t it nice that Boston College is still in the league? Like having a second, colder Wake Forest. Still, they might have a defense, and our charges might be a wee bit beat up by this point. Not going to be arrogant with this one.

Win probability – 85%

Florida State (Sat 5 Nov, TBA)

A little birdie told me that we get the Criminoles right after they play Clemson at home (without a bye in between). That is indeed the case. Jimbo Fisher still can’t coach his way out of a wet paper bag, so you know they will come in arrogant, or feeling like they threw their season away. It will be a matter of (i) is their talent advantage so great that these factors don’t matter; and (ii) is State too beat up by this point in the season to take advantage? There is always the chance of magic when we play Florida State, so keep some hope alive.

Win probability – 30%

at Syracuse (Sat 12 Nov, TBA)

Damn the anthropomorphic Orange for not playing outdoors, and denying us the chance of Glorious Snow Footy. Will they still be bad? Almost surely. Will NC State have their patented FSU hangover? Almost surely. Will this game be unwatchable dreck that sets a season commenting high due to the raw angst of Glorious Wolven Proletariat? You know the answer…

Win probability – 65%

Miami (Sat 19 Nov, TBA)

This game could be vital for Da U, in terms of winning the Coastal Division. In fact, State’s performance in our last two fixtures could decide the fate of who loses to FSU/Clemson/Louisville in Charlotte on 3 Dec. Feel the excite!!! Can we just rest our starters for next week?

Win probability – 40%

at Trump University Fraudulent Diploma Mill – Orange County, NC Branch (Fri 25 Nov, Noon or 3:30, ABC or ESPN or ESPN2)

Insert all the bad words you know, everything dirty George Carlin and Jim Jefferies have ever said, and multiply it by about 10,000. As long as the Pack shows up reasonably healthy, I think we have enough to ruin a season and add some Schadenfruede to the post-turkey and pie haze of glory. Doeren seems to get the fire and brimstone aspect of our rivalry, and we will want this one…bad.

Win probability – 55%

Adding up the probabilities you get an expected win total of…

6.84. No cheating, I didn’t mess with the numbers to get them to equal what I predicted earlier (7-5), it just worked out that way. You can always try this exercise yourself.

About BJD95

1995 NC State graduate, sufferer of Les and MOC during my entire student tenure. An equal-opportunity objective critic and analyst of Wolfpack sports.

'16 Football College Football Dave Doeren General On the Record

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Viewing 25 posts - 101 through 125 (of 201 total)
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  • #105621
    Rick
    Keymaster

    The changing culture line just seems like a buzz word to state some progress is being made. I really don’t take much from it.

    #105622
    ryebread
    Participant

    Yogi: Amato lucked into Rivers, but the man could also spot talent. We had more talent during Amato than any time in my lifetime. He had other failings as a manager that caused him to run his course, but we were never lacking for horses and we were always in games. TOB lost more blow out games in 2 years than the entire Amato tenure and while I haven’t checked it, I’d suspect DD have already lost more blow outs as well.

    You are right that Sheridan inherited far worse. He took the biggest turd of any State coach in my lifetime, and he improved almost immediately. DD supporters probably want to forget about Sheridan because the comparison just doesn’t look good. Sheridan is an example of what a GREAT coach running the program the right way can realistically achieve at State. He may not even be able to do that now given the lay of the land and the strength in the conference.

    I’m pulling for DD. I personally like him. I want him to do well. I want him to do so well and for us to reward him for doing so well that he stays and builds a Beamer like program. That’d be fantastic. I don’t see that trajectory, and I don’t see those inputs, but maybe I’m wrong.

    #105623
    choppack1
    Participant

    I wonder if folks would have wanted “the general” to have another year or two to get the program up and running. After all, he did leave Sheridan with Kramer, Peebles and Naz. Not sure if Ray Agnew was a carryover. Pretty sure fred stone and billy ray Haynes were.

    However, that was definitely a different era. If you could stop the run,you had a damn good record. And his teams were ahead of the game since they ran option and passed. Those same elements just aren’t in place today.

    Look, DD definitely needs more time. Hopefully, he will get it. However, nothing on game-day that I have seen thus far indicates that he will break from the mold to the positive. (Unlike our last 4 coaches he hasn’t had a .500 record in conference in his first 3 years.)

    However, I am a believer in that sometimes things are better ic they hit rock bottom…and they certainly did in 2013. Hopefully, breaking out of the mediocrity will be two-door.

    #105624
    Greywolf
    Participant

    … and another thing: why are we patting ourselves on the back for this coach supposedly changing the culture? Just what in the hell was wrong with the culture from the previous regime? I mean it seems to me that the previous regime’s had an integrity filled and WINNING culture.

    Umm.. yay for changing that?? Really?

    Thank you for reminding me that TOB did a great job of altering the culture of Wolfpack football. I wish I had said something like DD building on the foundation created by TOB. I think TOB a established a program where parents who cared wanted their kids to spend their college years being influenced by such men as Tom O’Brien. What I was trying to say is I think Dave Doeren and his staff is cut from the same cloth.

    I like that TOB won but I won’t go so far as to say I believe he had a winning culture. Highly regarded recruits weren’t flocking to NC State to be in that “WINNING” culture.

    One thing for damn sure the posting rate on this thread is more than the 1 a day posting before it.

    #105625
    ryebread
    Participant

    grey: I love that the posting rates are spiking. It’s the very end of the “dead period” between the end of the CWS and the first football game. I think we’re all “ready to go.”

    #105626
    Greywolf
    Participant

    grey: I love that the posting rates are spiking. It’s the very end of the “dead period” between the end of the CWS and the first football game. I think we’re all “ready to go.”

    Don’t sell yourself short, rye. It’s the kind of thoughtful posting that you and Yogi are doing that is boosting the interest. I wish foose, Mr. Dog and a few others would join in.

    #105627
    McCallum
    Participant

    Agnew was not a carryover neither was Haynes. Stone showed up in 86-87.

    State will do fine against other teams with weak QB play and struggle against strong QB play which is the way it goes for average and below average teams.

    Tough road to hoe against:
    Louisville, FSU, ClemPson, and unc.

    Not sold on unc’s guy though he appears to have had a hand in the concept of sliced bread.

    McCallum

    *as to being wrong I’ve been so many times. I just do not believe I’m wrong about my judgements or assessments here.

    #105628
    JasonP
    Participant

    I’m a little critical about where we’re at but I’m not for hanging DD out to dry. The D-line will hide a lot of deficiencies with LBs and backs, but the O has to move the ball and limit the pressure on the defense.

    I do think a refocus needs to happen with recruiting. If we can’t get to the point where we regularly out-recruit VT, Duke, Pitt, Louisville and at least start matching UNC and Miami then not much will change unless as noted elsewhere we get that diamond in the rough that everyone else missed. Only we’re going to need about 5 of those diamonds per year.

    Whoa is us for playing in the loaded Atlantic division, but since we have no choice in the matter – use it! And get some QBs. If they can’t spot talent then find out who Cut’s recruiting and steal them away. DD made his name on that NIU QB he had. Find someone like him and get him here.

    Btw; one benefit of The Hat’s latest shenanigan over the hill is that it highlights the culture clash he’s got over there. When a good Big 12 or other Texas program comes calling, he’s diving right in.

    #105629
    JasonP
    Participant

    Also, if the ECU game turns into a “don’t show too much” situation and we suffer a loss so that we can wait to break out all the secret triple flea-flick reverse to the TE for a TD pass razzle dazzle during conference play then that’s going to be tough to recover from both for team and ledge-peering fan base. If they have to go to the darkest corners of the playbook to win that game, they need to do it. Only half-way positive from a loss like that would be that it’s non-conference. Hope the football gods shine on the Wolfpack that day.

    #105631
    ryebread
    Participant

    JasonP: I tend to agree. Don’t lay back in any way against ECU. If we’ve got it in the playbook and think we can execute it, it needs to come out.

    #105638
    Greywolf
    Participant

    The changing culture line just seems like a buzz word to state some progress is being made. I really don’t take much from it.

    Compare the culture of EweNC and NC State.

    What would you say the culture is in a program that hires people like Chyckslit to be their defensive coordinator after a school like Auburn got rid of him for improprieties? Or a program that used a volunteer coach who was fired for putting the athletes at risk he was hired to coach? And lied about his working with players. Or a program that hid a hazing incident where 4 scholarship players allegedly gave a walk-on a concussion. Players trash and vandalize visitor’s locker rooms and facilities and the coaches look the other way. Players spit on opponents and the coaches “don’t know anything about it.” And there is more, lot’s more.

    I’d say the culture is one of anything goes if it means winning.

    How about a football program that emphasizes community service, leadership training, work ethic, scholarship (I mean real education that can be used after football), and family. A program where players are dismissed, not slapped on the wrist for violation of team rules.
    These things — scholarship, community service, leadership, family — are not in lieu of football but are the additions to football life that the coaches promise the athletes that they recruit and their families. NC State football is not using the players and then sending them out in the world ill prepared to make it.

    No Rick, the “culture line” is not just a buzz word to state some progress is being made. With your being a Keymaster on SFN, I’m surprised you know so little about the football culture that Tom O’Brien initiated and Dave Doeren is continuing to build on the shoulders of what TOB built.

    #105639
    Greywolf
    Participant

    You have to go to The Tar Pit Forum on Inside Carolina to read stuff like this.

    Do you think people give two rat behinds about the “culture” (whatever the hell you mean by that) or character building etc. Thats just a flimsy excuse for having a crap program. You may think that is all good but at some point he has to win. Its that simple. He has to win some games. I dont care what division we are in but he is getting paid to win. Figure it out, the last 2 coaches managed to beat both FSU and Clemson. These excuses are just tired and played out. This is the year, he has to win a game or 2 of significance or he is a dead man walking for the next AD and whatever excitement that is around the program goes down like the Hindenburg. He and Yow created this paper tiger of 8 wins and record breaking offensive stats while not even mentioning who it was against. Its obvious now what her motive was moving forward. At some point you have to quit blaming TOB (who beat #3FSU and won 7 games the fired year) and stand on the team you have built.

    #105640
    TheCOWDOG
    Moderator

    grey: I love that the posting rates are spiking. It’s the very end of the “dead period” between the end of the CWS and the first football game. I think we’re all “ready to go.”

    Don’t sell yourself short, rye. It’s the kind of thoughtful posting that you and Yogi are doing that is boosting the interest. I wish foose, Mr. Dog and a few others would join in.

    Hey. I’m still here, Mr. Grey.

    Sorry, but I’ve been spending my football time on scouting. I have read each and every post, some are savvy, others, well…not too…much. Hey, it’s the way I am. I’m looking at the here and now, kinda like Beej intended. I’m not interested in past clock/game management…if I was, I’d be talking of TOB. I’m certainly not interested in lame comments about past, preseason predictions from Shirley Temple types, so what does float the boat?

    Drinkwitz. For one, Drinkwitz. That is what I have been scouting. His offense is not Canada’s offense. It’s, it’s…tighter.

    More later…

    #105641
    wolfpack92owen
    Participant

    You have to go to The Tar Pit Forum on Inside Carolina to read stuff like this.

    Do you think people give two rat behinds about the “culture” (whatever the hell you mean by that) or character building etc. Thats just a flimsy excuse for having a crap program. You may think that is all good but at some point he has to win. Its that simple. He has to win some games. I dont care what division we are in but he is getting paid to win. Figure it out, the last 2 coaches managed to beat both FSU and Clemson. These excuses are just tired and played out. This is the year, he has to win a game or 2 of significance or he is a dead man walking for the next AD and whatever excitement that is around the program goes down like the Hindenburg. He and Yow created this paper tiger of 8 wins and record breaking offensive stats while not even mentioning who it was against. Its obvious now what her motive was moving forward. At some point you have to quit blaming TOB (who beat #3FSU and won 7 games the fired year) and stand on the team you have built.

    If we had just taken Clemson to the brink and won the division then you wouldnt be posting this stupid stuff about character building, Culture etc.

    As someone pointed out TOB recruited the same type kid but that is apparently a different “culture” then what you are looking for. In college athletics wins are all that matters. Beating this “we do things the right way” (which is laughable at best) drum is the losers mentality.

    And playing the “Hole Troll” angle is not a very becoming way to argue your point.

    #105642
    Greywolf
    Participant

    If we had just taken Clemson to the brink and won the division then you wouldnt be posting this stupid stuff about character building, Culture etc.

    As someone pointed out TOB recruited the same type kid but that is apparently a different “culture” then what you are looking for. In college athletics wins are all that matters. Beating this “we do things the right way” (which is laughable at best) drum is the losers mentality.

    And playing the “Hole Troll” angle is not a very becoming way to argue your point.

    TheAliasTroll wrote:
    … and another thing: why are we patting ourselves on the back for this coach supposedly changing the culture? Just what in the hell was wrong with the culture from the previous regime? I mean it seems to me that the previous regime’s had an integrity filled and WINNING culture.

    What I said was that you had to go to the Tar Pit forum in Inside Carolina to find conversation like yours. I wouldn’t insult a Hole Troll by saying you were one.

    #105644
    McCallum
    Participant

    Tighter?

    Trying not to bring a pre-1984 Amber Lynn into the discussion but how is that possible?

    McCallum

    #105645
    Whiteshoes67
    Participant

    When you’re building or rebuilding, you better be able to either out recruit or identify overlooked diamonds, develop players quickly, or outcoach–or a combo of all of the above in this landscape. I like DD. I think we do show incremental improvement (and that’s not a jab). As foose and many others have said, this may be Dd’s best team and still have a losing record.

    That doesn’t cut it. It may not be fair. it’s the way it is. We’re not winning enough recruiting wars in NC or outside the state. We’ve not out coached anybody to the point of wins.

    Let me elaborate on defensive scheme. I should’ve said style or philosophy, not scheme. nothing wrong with the 4-2-5. Ours is just too vanilla. And lacking in speed. Success breeds success. On the field and reeling in recruits. style influences both.

    dd and staff need to do more on the field and recruiting, particularly in NC. Macallum is right. live on 74 and hit a few select schools.

    #105647
    McCallum
    Participant

    Whiteshoes,

    Everything you need is up and down Hwy 74 and Gwinette County Georgia.

    McCallum

    #105648
    Whiteshoes67
    Participant

    Every year, nick saban hosts a group of high school coaches on a fishing and hunting trip in the offseason. I know a few of the attendees, some of the best coaches-active and retired-in Nc and Sc. We aren’t getting enough of their players. And when The SEC and pac-10 and other ACC schools (including the one down the road) are getting more cookies from the pantry than you, you got a problem. We need tastier cookies.

    #105649
    McCallum
    Participant

    Sounds like State being State.

    When it’s been vanilla wafers for 40 plus years then cookies are in another universe.

    We ain’t got none.

    McCallum

    *I don’t see much Saban activity down here on Lake Burton, fairly low key bunch from my observation.

    #105650
    YogiNC
    Participant

    Some of you guys think you can just waltz into a living room and sign the top recruits in the country. Trust me DD and company see these kids, talk to them, try to convince them to come. In the end, no matter what, this is an 18 year old making the decision. Think back to how stupid you were when you were 18, or has it been too long? St. Nick walks in and says “come play in the big big house down in Bama, play for the #1 Tide” even though chances are pretty good they may never see the field. And then DD comes in and says “Come play in your home state at Carter Finley” where a top recruit “could” start on day 1. Honestly, do you really think DD and company aren’t trying? But given these two choices just what idiot thinks even 10% of these 18 year olds would pick State? So what magic words or potions would you use to make them choose us over whoever? I’m sure if you can come up with some DD would love to know. Heck, you could make millions of bucks selling that secret, and there would be nothing in the NCAA rule book that would say that’s illegal. You could use the same thing to become an advertising genius and make billions. But there are no magic words or potions. And the stark reality is that paradigm is almost impossible to shift. Steve and Lou couldn’t do much of it down at USC and they are legends. Really? Really??? Over and over I’ve been hearing “just recruit better”. That’s like telling a homely woman that she should be prettier. Try that reality on for size.

    Smarter than the average bear

    #105651
    wolfpack92owen
    Participant

    The excuses never end………

    #105652
    YogiNC
    Participant

    The excuses never end………

    OK, give us a plan. Tell all of us how YOU would fix recruiting. It’s easy to complain about something, it’s much harder to actually provide a SOLUTION. So tell us!

    Smarter than the average bear

    #105654
    wolfpack92owen
    Participant

    The excuses never end………

    OK, give us a plan. Tell all of us how YOU would fix recruiting. It’s easy to complain about something, it’s much harder to actually provide a SOLUTION. So tell us!

    I am not the one making 2.2 million per. Its his job to figure it out. If you need to improve your supply chain management then I am your man.

    #105655
    Whiteshoes67
    Participant

    ^Hire coaches with established relationships or roots in your state or region. You need some salesman who can sell mama or daddy or Jimmy to wear the red and white.

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