Baseball Regular Season Finale – Heels Come to Town

Time’s running out for Wolfpack Baseball (32-17, 13-12 ACC) to distinguish themselves as one of the top 8 teams in the nation as the Pack took it on the chin this past weekend at Louisville. When the dust settled, the Cards had not only swept the Pack, but also limited State to 3 runs in 3 games and never trailed at any point in any of the three games.

‘Twas not a good series for the Pack.

No time like the present for a little home cooking as State returns to the friendly confines of Doak Field to host Carolina for the regular season finale this weekend.

Frankly, both teams are struggling as they approach the finish line. Carolina is fighting to remain in the ACC Tournament field (currently they’d be the #9 seed out of 10). On the other hand, State is fighting to stay in the regional host discussion, hoping to get back into the national seed discussion, all while having lost 6 of their last 7 games.

If the Pack’s bats don’t wake up soon, it could be ugly.

And that could become problematic considering that Carolina, as usual, has one of the best pitching staffs in the nation. As an ENTIRE staff, they sport a 2.98 ERA compared to 3.81 for the Pack.

And while they don’t hit with the same power or average that the Pack does, they do the little things very well to get an extra base or scratch out that extra run. They draw walks better than we do, they don’t strike out nearly as much and they’ve stolen twice as many bases on the year as the Pack.

Boil that all down and it results in a Carolina team with a significantly lower team BA (.285 vs .303) and slgpct (.411 vs .443) still scoring virtually the same number of runs per game as the Pack (6.71 vs 6.75).

Translation….this series is pretty much a toss up.  Fortunately, we have them in Raleigh.

Carolina at NC State Game Schedule

  • Thursday, May 19, 6:00pm – ESPN3
  • Friday, May 20, 6:30pm – ESPN3
  • Saturday, May 21, 1:00pm – ESPN3

*All ACC series this weekend are Thursday thru Saturday (ACCT starts Tuesday)

 

ACC Standings

Atlantic
Schools Conf W-L-T Conf PCT W-L-T PCT
Louisville 19-8-0 .704 43-10-0 .811
Florida State 15-8-0 .652 33-17-0 .660
NC State 13-12-0 .520 32-17-0 .653
Clemson 13-14-0 .481 35-18-0 .660
Wake Forest 13-14-0 .481 32-20-0 .615
Boston College 11-14-0 .440 29-18-0 .617
Notre Dame 11-14-0 .440 27-24-0 .529
Coastal
Schools Conf W-L-T Conf PCT W-L-T PCT
Miami 19-6-0 .760 41-9-0 .820
Virginia 16-11-0 .593 33-18-0 .647
Georgia Tech 12-14-0 .462 34-18-0 .654
North Carolina 12-15-0 .444 33-19-0 .635
Duke 12-15-0 .444 31-21-0 .596
Pitt 10-16-0 .385 25-24-0 .510
Virginia Tech 6-21-0 .222 19-33-0 .365

 

Elsewhere in the ACC this Weekend

  • (3)Miami at (9)FSU
  • (5)Louisville at Wake
  • VT at (8)UVa
  • (19)Clemson at ND
  • BC at (22)GT
  • Duke at Pitt

If the ACC Tourney started today…

This time next week the ACC Baseball Tourney will already be underway. As of the moment of this writing, the seeds/pools would break down as follows.

  1. Miami (19-6)
  2. Louisville (19-8)
  3. Florida State (15-8)
  4. Virginia (16-11)
  5. NC State (13-12)
  6. Clemson (13-14)
  7. Wake (13-14)
  8. Georgia Tech (12-14)
  9. Carolina (12-15)
  10. Duke (12-15)

    ND (11-14)
    BC (11-14)

Pool A would be (1)Miami, (4)UVa, (5)NCSU and the winner of the (8)GT/(9)Carolina play in game.
Pool B would be (2)’Ville, (3)FSU, (6)Clemson and the winner of the (7)Wake/(10)Duke play in game.

But with FSU hosting Miami this weekend, and UVa getting VT at home to end things, even the top spots aren’t set in stone yet. And there will almost assuredly be some shake up of spots 5 thru 10.

Fortunately, anything short of getting swept by Carolina this weekend, and the Pack is pretty safely above the play in game line. As a bonus motivation, sweeping Carolina this weekend could potentially knock them out of the field altogether if either BC or ND could pick up a win vs GT or Clemson, respectively.

But that also works the other way as well. Which is to say that Carolina will be motivated to NOT get knocked out of the field.

Anywhoo…we’ll revisit the ACCT issue after the weekend’s games are over and the field is set.

NCAA Tourney National Seeds (again, if the tourney began today)…

There was a question on another thread regarding how national seeds are determined and how RPI is used for same. Essentially, just like basketball tourney seeding, RPI is only one metric used. To be honest, I don’t know specifically what they weight more or less. They look at RPI as a guide, but it is definitely not the end all be all. Overall record, conference record, record against top 50 RPI, top 100 RPI, SOS etc., all enter into it.

Based only on what I’ve observed in the past, this would be my guess as to who the national seeds would be if the season ended today.

Florida (43-9) – No brainer as #1 overall
Miami (38-9) – Tough call between them and ‘Ville for #2 overall. But the ‘Canes played the tougher schedule and have a better conference record.
Louisville (42-10) – See above
Texas A&M (39-13)
Ole Miss (39-13)
Mississippi State (37-14-1)
Texas Tech (38-13)
South Carolina (38-13)

If you’re keeping score at home, that’s 5 SEC teams, 2 ACC teams, 1 Big12 team.

And in spite of our #6 RPI currently, we are barely even in the first four out right now IMHO. Vandy, LSU, FSU and UVa (D1Baseball has UVa in place of Ole Miss for example) have as good or better cases than we do currently.

Bottom line…we’ve got work to do over the next two weeks if we want a national seed and even if we hope to hang on as a regional host.

‘Twernt a lot of highlights at Louisville, but here’s the two that made the cut….

So I’ll supplement the video selection this week with a flashback from not quite a year ago at the DBAP….

That was a really fun game to be at, FWIW.

Go Pack!!!!!

About Wufpacker

A 2nd generation alumnus and raised since birth to be irrationally dedicated to all things NC State. Class of '88 and '92.

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Home Forums Baseball Regular Season Finale – Heels Come to Town

This topic contains 139 replies, has 17 voices, and was last updated by  mak4dpak 2 years ago.

Viewing 25 posts - 1 through 25 (of 140 total)
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    Posts
  • #103569

    Wufpacker
    Participant

    Time’s running out for Wolfpack Baseball (32-17, 13-12 ACC) to distinguish themselves as one of the top 8 teams in the nation as the Pack took it on t
    [See the full post at: Baseball Regular Season Finale – Heels Come to Town]

    #103570

    PackerInRussia
    Participant

    Thanks for that Canes highlight. I needed that after last weekend.

    #103572

    Wufpacker
    Participant

    ^ Yeah…I needed a pick me up as well.

    #103573

    TheCOWDOG
    Moderator

    From my perspective, this is “show me time.” Clear the hurdles cleanly, and make me a believer that they have a shot to…well…clear the next hurdle.

    GO EDWIN, GO EDWIN!

    #103575

    Pack78
    Participant

    Time to get the Hole hate crankin’…went to the Coaches Caravan last night in Winston and had an interesting chat with a ’56 IE grad; his daughter went to the dump on the hump and earned a degree in Medical Technology. After a time she decided to go to a real University and got into State to pursue an IE major like her dad. We laughed when he told us that State accepted only 34 of her unx credit hours-we agreed that was still too many!

    #103576

    mak4dpak
    Participant

    Here is hoping the heels have their snake bitten weekend, and our bats wake up. Can’t lose a home series vs. the holes. A sweep would be a good boost going into the acc tourney.

    #103577

    MP
    Participant

    There was a question on another thread regarding how national seeds are determined and how RPI is used for same. Essentially, just like basketball tourney seeding, RPI is only one metric used. To be honest, I don’t know specifically what they weight more or less. They look at RPI as a guide, but it is definitely not the end all…

    Shhhhhhhhh. Don’t tell VaWolf.

    #103582

    BJD95
    Keymaster

    I wish we had the luxury of doing something fun, like taking the field with 20 players and insisting it was only 9, etc.

    #103583

    PackerInRussia
    Participant

    Has the snake been ritually sacrificed or anything like that to make sure its effects don’t carry over? Perhaps bury it under the visitor dugout or something?

    #103616

    Wufpacker
    Participant

    Pack’s RPI up to #5 now, vs the #2 SOS.
    Read this to learn why it is likely a moot point if we don’t win the Carolina series.
    http://www.d1baseball.com/analysis/regional-analysis-inside-numbers/

    #103645

    Gowolves
    Participant

    Not a good start. Wilder is all over the place.

    #103647

    Wufpacker
    Participant

    Yep. But he did end up getting two more outs than I thought he was gonna there for minute.

    #103648

    Gowolves
    Participant

    Wow, that was fast. Wilder is not a starter. He needs to be moved to a long reliever. Nerves get the best of him.

    #103649

    Gowolves
    Participant

    I hope Avent is smart enough to expect something like this would likely occur.

    #103650

    Wufpacker
    Participant

    ‘Dog’s boy puts out the fire.
    Well done Mr. Williams.

    #103651

    Gowolves
    Participant

    Got out of that jam. I have a feeling that runs will be at a premium again.

    #103652

    Wufpacker
    Participant

    Wilder is not a starter. He needs to be moved to a long reliever. Nerves get the best of him.

    I don’t necessarily disagree. Wilder is one of those guys (and it seems like we’ve had a lot of them lately) who is untouchable when he has his command, but it’s often a crapshoot as to whether he will or not. He reminds me of Ubaldo Jimenez of Orioles’ infamy.

    I’d like to see him in mid relief or even as a situational guy to try to build his confidence.

    #103655

    Wufpacker
    Participant

    Living dangerously so far.
    Better figure it out soon.

    #103656

    TheCOWDOG
    Moderator

    Orwig flirts, but guts it out.

    Love a drag bunt, move him around now.

    #103657

    Wufpacker
    Participant

    Not even….

    #103658

    Wufpacker
    Participant

    CLOSE!!!!!

    #103659

    Wufpacker
    Participant

    Sorry…I’m really sad that I didn’t make it to the yard tonight.

    #103660

    TheCOWDOG
    Moderator

    Back to back steal attempts? Bad form.

    #103661

    Wufpacker
    Participant

    Whoa….I think we mighta got screwed on both ends there.

    #103662

    Wufpacker
    Participant

    OK…how ’bout we don’t let the leadoff batter get aboard this inning? And also please try to avoid allowing them to load the bases on a load of rubbish.

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