State’s basketball team has a week off and we’re at just past the halfway point of the ACC season so there have already been a couple of great entries here at SFN looking at the state of the basketball program (no pun intended) like the ACC Mid-Season Review, Calling Dr Heimlich and The rest of this season – what to expect?.
Here’s my version which will take a look at stats in wins vs losses, both as a team and individually.
In wins, State averages 77.9 points but 65.1 in losses. Our opponents score 62.6 in wins vs 72.4 in losses. So State scores 12 points less and gives up 10 points more in losses vs wins.
Individually Lacey, Turner, Barber, Anya, Freeman, Lee, and both Martins all average less points per game in losses. Both Washington and Abu actually average more points per game in losses. Freeman has only scored 12 points in our 10 losses.
Not counting team rebounds, State averages 37.3 rebounds in wins vs 30.8 in losses. (Because of team rebound stats I don’t have our opponent stats for comparison.) That kinda makes sense, your opponent shoots a higher percentage (more on that later) and there are less rebounds to grab. Although there are more offensive rebounds available when you shoot a lower percentage yourself (again, more later).
Individually Turner, Washington and Cody Martin are the only guys who average more rebounds in losses.
In wins, State averages 12.4 assists per game vs 10.9 in losses. State has assists on 45.1% of field goals in wins, 45.9% in losses. Pretty much the same, actually a little higher in losses. Assist to turnover ratio is 1.16 in wins, 0.94 in losses.
Of our two primary ball handlers, Barber averages less assists in losses (4.2 vs 3.1) but Lacey actually averages slightly more assists in our losses (3.6 vs 3.4).
State turns the ball over an average of 10.64 times in wins, in losses 11.60. That’s basically 1 turnover more when we lose. In some of our close losses that one possession could have made all the difference but overall 1 more turnover isn’t a glaring difference.
Opponents average 10.50 turnovers in wins, 10.30 in losses. Pretty much even. And also pretty close to the number of turnovers State commits. Seems like a wash.
Turner, Barber, Lee and Cody Martin all average less turnovers in losses.
Field Goal Percentage
In wins, State shoots 46.9% and 42.2% in losses. Our opponents shoot 36.4% when we win, 46.5% when we lose.
On 2 point field goals, State shoots 51.3% in wins vs 44.6% in losses. Our opponents shoot 39.9% from 2 in our wins, 49.5% in our losses.
So here’s a category that seems to make a difference.
Washington, Abu & Lee shoot better in losses. And here’s where our perimeter guys fall off, Lacey overall (49.7% vs 41.5%) and from 2 (52.7% vs 45.5%), Barber overall (49.5% vs 44.6%) and from 2 (51.8% vs 45.7%) and Turner overall (43.0% vs 36.2%) and from 2 (48.3% vs 34.4%). Maybe Turner should stick to the 3 point line?
State is shooting 37.%5 from 3 point range in wins, in losses 36.7%. Slightly less but probably doesn’t explain things.
Our opponents shoot 29.3% from 3 in our wins, 39.6% in our losses. Ten percent higher from 3 probably is a factor.
Washington and Abu are the only players shooting better from 3 in losses, but Washington is 3-5 vs 2-5 and Abu is 1-1 vs 0-2. Our perimeter guys do fall off but still shoot a respectable percentage from 3 in losses. Lacey goes from 45.6% to 38.1%, Barber 40.0% vs 38.5% and Turner 40.0% vs 37.1%.
Free Throw Percentage
State shoots 67.8% from the line in wins, 66.7% in losses. Our opponents shoot 70.4% when we win, 69.0% when we lose. Not a whole lot of differences going on here.
Lacey, Anya and Caleb Martin shoot better from the line in losses, Freeman shoots the same.
In our wins State has been called for 17.5 fouls per game, in losses 18.6. Again, in a close game one more foul per game and those 2 free throws could have made all the difference. But we’re not getting called for a lot more fouls when we lose.
Our opponents are called for 21.1 fouls when we win, 17.9 when we lose. When we lose we’re called for almost one more foul than our opponents, again maybe important in a close game.
State averages 23.7 free throw attempts in wins, 17.7 in losses. Our opponents shoot 19.3 free throws in our wins and 21.0 in our losses. So our opponents do get a couple more trips to the line when we lose.
5 players have fouled out in our 14 wins and 5 have fouled out in our 10 losses.
State averages 3.93 steals in wins, 3.90 in losses. Almost dead even.
Opponents average 5.50 steals in our wins, 6.10 in our losses. Not much difference between wins and losses but our opponents definitely steal the ball more than we do.
State averages 7.00 blocks in wins but only 3.10 in losses. We block over twice as many shots as a team in wins as does Anya, who goes from 3.14 to 1.50. Washington blocks twice as many shots in wins, 1.64 vs 0.80.
Our opponents block 2.57 shots in our wins and 4.70 in our losses. So when we lose we block less shots and get blocked more.
With all the nuances of the game of basketball, it seems like our wins and losses boil down to the basics of basketball. If we shoot well and score points, we win. If our opponents shoot well and score points, we lose.
Some of the typical reasons for losing a game, like turning the ball over a lot, missing a bunch of threes or free throws or the refs were out to get us don’t seem to matter for this team. Although, as mentioned above, in some of our close losses one turnover or one foul and 2 free throw attempts could have made all the difference.
It almost seems like if Washington has a good game we lose. Washington has scored in double figures 7 times, 5 of which were losses (Purdue, Cincy, UVA, UNC and ND) and the 2 wins were the big comeback against La Tech and the OT buzzer beater vs Georgia Tech, 2 games State easily could have lost. Kyle also blocks twice as many shots in wins, does his offensive focus cause his defensive to suffer? Can’t set any of this theory in stone and I’m not quite sure what to make of it but I find it to be an interesting observation. Maybe if Washington has to pick up the scoring slack for our perimeter guys it means we’re probably in trouble?