ACC Mid-Season Review

Originally published on Tuesday of this week:

This past weekend had six games on Sat, one on Sun, and then another one on Monday night…Two overtime games, multiple close games, and only two with the final differential greater than six points. Throw in the fact that State won one of the OT games and UNC lost twice….and that makes for some entertaining basketball. So let’s get busy and see what nuggets of info we can find.

Since this is our mid-season review, we’ll go into a little more detail than normal. The summary table comes from ESPN for a change since they were nice enough to tabulate most of these columns for us. The RPI rankings come from Monday morning and I manually updated UNC/UVA records after the game. (No it was really no bother, glad to do it.)

 

 

Key changes from last week:

  • Miami loses two games in a row to drop into the bubble zone.
  • Pitt stops a 3-game losing streak by beating ND and sneaks onto the back-side of the bubble.
  • Clemson is on a 3-game winning streak to break into our trend graph, getting close to the bubble again.

Let’s back up the summary table with an abbreviated version of the Dance Card analysis through games played on Sunday.

 

As expected with their RPI ranking and Top-50 wins, both State and Miami are on the good side of the bubble. I threw in a few other teams that might be of some interest to State fans along with both teams on either side of the predicted burst point. For the second straight season, Tenn has turned into one of my favorite teams since it would be nice for State to have a win against another NCAAT team. Funny enough, Tenn is one of SIX teams tied in the SEC with a 5-3 conference record.

Before we start breaking down the ACC, let’s put up the RPI trend graphs for completeness (and because I like them). Note that these rankings come from CBS and several are slightly different from the ESPN calcs.

 

 

Right now, the ACC breaks down pretty easily into three distinct regions with the 5 teams at the top and the four teams at the bottom moving in opposite directions away from the mess in the middle. So each summary will include that team’s remaining games broken down into these three categories.

 

THE UPPER CLASS

UVA

Strong overall schedule, numerous good wins, and a great record….I doubt if any of these nuggets surprises anyone here at SFN; so that doesn’t leave much to discuss. UVA’s remaining schedule looks to be one of the easiest of those in the upper level of the ACC.

Top UL (x2)
Middle @NCSU, Pitt, FSU, @SYR
Bottom WF (x2), VT

With their win in Chapel Hill on Monday night and the tie-breaking win over ND, UVA may be hard to catch.

 

ND

We thoroughly discussed the Irish last week and I don’t see any new facts that warrant further discussion. My prediction was that ND will end up with one of the easiest overall conference schedules with home/home series against Duke, Clemson, GT, and BC. Of course as soon as I make that prediction, Clemson goes on a three-game win streak just to make a liar out of me. Regardless of their overall conference-schedule strength, their remaining games look fairly balanced:

Top @Duke, @UL
Middle Clemson (x2), SYR,
Bottom BC (x2), WF

 

Louisville

Louisville’s welcome package to the ACC included what will likely be the ACC’s toughest conference schedule with home/home games against UVA, UNC, Miami, and Pitt. If you were more observant of the overall summary table than I was at first, you would have noticed that L’ville’s three losses are all to teams in the RPI Top-25…Kentucky, Duke, and UNC. Their remaining schedule has a few games left against the top and then a whole bunch against the mess in the middle:

Top UVA (x2), ND
Middle UM (x2), Pitt, NCSU, @SYR, @FSU
Bottom @GT

 

UNC

In overall conference schedule strength, UNC and Duke look to be in a race for the second hardest schedule. But their schedule split fairly evenly over the two halves of the conference schedule:

Top UVA, Duke (x2),
Middle @Pitt, NCSU, @UM
Bottom @BC, GT (x2)

 

DUKE

One of the five teams at the top of the ACC will end up playing on Wednesday with the Mess in the Middle. With Duke’s two early losses to State and Miami, they have to play catch-up to get one of the byes to the first two rounds of the ACCT. Duke has essentially no chance to catch UVA or ND (unless either team decides to collapse), but they do have a legitimate shot at catching either L’ville or UNC. Their remaining schedule is pretty balanced and the two games against UNC could easily decide which day both teams first play on.

Top ND, UNC (x2)
Middle @FSU, SYR (x2), Clemson
Bottom GT. @VT, WF

 

 

THE MESS IN THE MIDDLE

SYRACUSE

The ‘Cuse was another one of the teams we beat to death last week. In summary, the first half of the conference schedule was extremely easy, and the second half isn’t. But since they have no Top-50 wins, at least they will get a number of shots at a key win. But with an RPI in the 60’s, they are going to need a lot more than just one big win. I’m not betting on Syracuse pulling off an NCAAT bid this year:

Top Duke (x2), UL, @ND, UVA
Middle Pitt (x2), @NCSU
Bottom VT, @BC

 

MIAMI

We covered Miami’s dramatic rise through the conference and RPI rankings last week. Then they lose at home to give GT their first conference win of the year and on the road to FSU. Doesn’t that highlight exactly what we would expect from the messy middle…road win at Duke and a home loss to previously winless GT? Bottom line, they’re in a good spot but significantly degraded from last week. Their remaining schedule looks fairly balanced to me:

Top UL (x2), UNC
Middle Clemson, FSU, @Pitt
Bottom @WF, @BC, VT (x2)

 

CLEMSON

I’ve only seen one half of Clemson basketball so far this year…and I’ve been trying really hard to forget it. Including State, they have three Top-50 wins, but State is their best conference win so far. Looking at their wins, it’s hard to understand why their RPI is so bad. Looking at their losses quickly explains their issue….five losses to teams ranked 100+ including a home loss to #247 Winthrop. I have no idea what to expect from the Jekyll/Hyde imitation that Clemson has going on this year. But here’s who will get one of the two Clemson teams over the second half of the season:

Top ND (x2), @Duke
Middle @FSU, @UM, NCSU
Bottom VT, GT (x2),

 

PITT

Pitt would have probably ended up in my definition of the bottom dwellers except for their home win over ND. Of course, Pitt also gave VT their first win of the year…so another dyslexic team in the lower end of the ACC middle. I’m not overly optimistic of their chances, but here’s who they’ve got left:

Top @UL, UNC, @UVA
Middle SYR (x2), UM, @FSU
Bottom BC, @WF

 

FSU

I’ve had FSU penciled into the bottom third of the ACC ever since the Jan 1 entry summarizing the pre-season games. But then they beat Miami to move into a tie with Pitt in the conference standings. I’m not overly optimistic of their chances over the rest of the year…but for today, they’re officially in the mess in the middle. Normally I say that the RPI rankings have no predictive power, but I’ll make an exception for FSU and their 100+ ranking. Their remaining schedule:

Top Duke, @UVA, UL
Middle Clemson, @Miami, Pitt
Bottom @VT, @GT, BC

 

NCSU

State is managing to stay just on the right side of two different bubbles….for both the NCAAT and playing on Tuesday on the ACCT:

At present, State and Miami are lining up for the dreaded 8/9 matchup with both teams 1/2 game ahead of Pitt and FSU for the dreaded Tuesday start. Normally, I concentrate on ranking the ACC by their RPI ranking. But for right now, RPI and conference standings are not lining up very well. So we’ll need to keep track of the conference standings for at least the next couple of weeks.

State’s season to date as well as their remaining games:

As we’ve discussed since the Jan 1 entry, State is on the road for 2/3 of the games over the second half of the conference schedule. Good news is that the second half is easier than the first half and both of State’s schedule breaks come in the second half. It wouldn’t surprise me if State’s final game against Syracuse ends up being “must win” for both teams.

One of the things that I find truly amazing is that after the Duke win, the forums read like everyone thought that the team that played against Cincinnati was gone for good. Then when that version shows up against Clemson, the forums read like State has no absolutely chance at an NCAAT bid. Balance, people…..balance. No season is ever a success or a failure because of a game in Jan.

Going into the season, I had no idea what to expect. Last year’s team was a one-man team and the MAN went to the NBA. Luckily, Lacey is as good as (if not better than) advertised and the freshmen are contributing. The miraculous improvement in the returning players that were forecast by some have not really appeared (shocking huh?), but State has the deepest rotation since Gottfried took over.

State is slightly ahead of where they were this time last year. RPI ranking is about 10 spots higher thanks to a OOC schedule that turned out to be surprisingly strong. State also has a signature win this year (which they didn’t get last year until the ACCT). Here are their best OOC wins and I’ll be pulling for them through the end of conference play. (If this entry wasn’t already insanely long, we would discuss some leading reasons for the differences between the two sets of media calculations.)

From where State is currently sitting and with their upcoming schedule, not making the NCAAT would represent a failing of major proportions. But State will definitely have to improve their 5-7 record over the last 12 games if they’re going to meet that goal.

It all starts up again Tuesday night in Winston-Salem:

 

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

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Home Forums ACC Mid-Season Review

Viewing 24 posts - 1 through 24 (of 24 total)
  • Author
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  • #72908
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    This past weekend had six games on Sat, one on Sun, and then another one on Monday night…Two overtime games, multiple close games, and only two with t
    [See the full post at: ACC Mid-Season Review]

    #72913
    Trout
    Participant

    Well done. You wont find a better mid season review than this, ANYWHERE.

    Hindsight being 20/20, 2 games from the first half of the ACC still bother me: Clemson, because of the way we played, and ND because let a chance for a 2nd signature win get away. Win both of those, and we are in the discussion for a Thursday night ACCT start and right there to grab a Top 4 seed in the NCAAT.

    #72917
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    Thanks Trout. Both of those losses you mentioned were inexcusable:

    – Coming out completely flat at home against Clemson
    – Losing a game when you have the ball, four-point lead, and 1 minute left in the game.

    #72919
    ryebread
    Participant

    For a while we’ve been in a spot where we need to go at least .500 against the other ACC bubble teams (Syracuse, Miami, Pitt), hold serve against the bottom and maybe sneak 1-2 out against the top. The non-conference RPI carries us in otherwise.

    Games against Clemson (not holding serve) and Miami (differentiation) really hurt us. In the back half, we pretty much have to beat WF, Syracuse, BC, VT and Clemson.

    Beat UVA at home (the most likely of the 3 tough games), and we should be dancing. Lose all three of those and we’ll need to win at least 1 in the ACC tournament.

    I don’t think anyone thinks that Gott and the team are horrid. They’re just disappointed that we’re here, at this spot, again — despite what to my eyes looks like better talent than that.

    WF tonight is must win though. The team has to have a sense of urgency starting now.

    #72924
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    Lose all three of those and we’ll need to win at least 1 in the ACC tournament.

    It’s unlikely that a win on Wed will mean anything to the Selection Committee. If a bid isn’t sown up by the start of the ACCT, you need to focus on a Thursday win.

    #72927
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    ND is more inexcusable, since that is what led to the Clemson debacle in the first place.

    It was lost in the first 8 minutes of the second half, the last minute was just the cherry on the shit sundae. We never should have been in position for one turnover to f-ck us over like that (and frankly, one missed 1-and-1 would do the same, and was a fairly equally likely event).

    #72928
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    Oh, and VAWolf is a national treasure. Fo sho.

    #72929
    wufpup76
    Keymaster

    Like everyone else – those damn ND and Clemson games. Dammit, dammit, DAMMIT.

    #72948
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    I had a graph ready for you wufpup, but I actually forgot about. The darn entry was so long, I wouldn’t have put it in even if I had remembered it.

    http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/2_2_Conference-RPI.jpg

    Your prediction seems to wandering far from reality. 😉

    #72950
    wufpup76
    Keymaster

    ^Hahaha good for those teams making it into the Top 200 🙂

    #72961
    choppack1
    Participant

    We have 9 games left. We need to win at least 5 of those. If we do that – worse case is that we would have beaten wf, BC, vatech and one of Clemson, uva, cuse, Louisville and unc I suspect that will leave us right where we are now…and likely win.

    #72970
    ryebread
    Participant

    VaWolf82: You may be right about a Wednesday win not being enough, but I’m not sure whether that is the case. Let’s say we lose the 3 toughest games, but win the rest. That puts us at 10-8 with a solid, but solidly bubble type of RPI. It could go either way, and a lot of that would be based on what happens in other conference tournaments, with other high majors, etc..

    We’d be playing on Wednesday. We’d likely be playing a lower team winner. We simply couldn’t afford to lose that game. It’d become a must win, thus my statement that we have to win at least 1 in the ACC tournament.

    Now, if we lose those big 3 games, and lose one of the WTF games (like tonight), then we’re probably going to need to win 2 in the ACC tournament. If we can only get one truly good win (against Duke), do we really think we’re going to win 2 in the ACC tournament, particularly given that second game is against one of those good teams on more rest?

    #72978
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    We can all agree that losing on Wed is very bad. But winning on Wednesday simply does not improve your resume. All you’ve accomplished is to not make it look any worse.

    A loss on Thursday would mean that you need all/most of the other bubble teams to also lose AND then hope that your miserable resume is the best amongst a bad bunch. Sounds like pretty long odds to me.

    9-9 and a win on Thursday would probably be good enough for an ACC bubble team. Goodness knows that it’s worked for State a number of times.

    #72982
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    I will never be certain again after last year’s miracle bid. I was sure we were “one win short.”

    #72986
    44rules
    Participant

    Don’t know where we’ll wind up. But for all the weeping and gnashing of teeth and wearing of sackcloth and ashes, I was wondering about the applicability of the high-post offense in the modern era of short-term basketball players.

    In days of yore Wooden had players for three years (plus a year of schooling them during their freshman JV year) to teach that offense. With skilled big men it’s beautiful to watch, and I love interior passing by tall people when done right. But is it feasible to teach that offense now?

    I sat under the State basket during the Tech game. Looked like Abu and Kyle had a nice flow and feel for each other. But it didn’t last long. At least a couple of times we tried it later in the game, and they just fumbled everything away. Several times later in the game big guys just fumbled things away, though. And at least twice I remember pick-and-roll plays where it looked like the roll guy was open and the guard just ignored him.

    Or maybe our big guys just aren’t that good. The thought of Anya and Freeman passing to each other with defensive arms swinging around inside does kind of scare me.

    Somebody smarter than me comment.

    Communism is not love. Communism is a hammer which we use to crush the enemy. Mao Zedong

    #72992
    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    ^44… nothing to add to the “eye-witness” report… and I ain’t smarter than you….
    I think you GOTT it covered….

    The only thing I might add is that one game is the same as snapshot taken from a 3 hour movie…
    It tells you something, but it ain’t the whole story…

    The key word missing perhaps is “Yet”…

    ABU, Anya and Freeman have come together pretty good for only a half a season together…
    They should get better and better….

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #73413
    PapaJohn
    Participant

    Great update, thanks for all the work. Loved every word of it.

    I missed this early in the week … and now we blew the WF game. Eight days off to right the ship. (hopefully)

    But an interesting development, how does Cuse declining post season play (including ACCT) impact this whole scenario? Or does it have any impact at all?

    #73416
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    I don’t see how SYR impacts any team making the NCAAT. On another thread, someone reported that there were only going to be two games on Tues. So that is something anyway.

    #73418
    13OT
    Participant

    The only way that this NC State team is Dancing in March will be AT LEAST 9 or 10 more wins. When you haven’t won 2 in a row in two months, this isn’t likely. I don’t see how we can be ahead of Clemson in anyone’s rankings right now. And Clemson, who looked like a slightly upgraded version of the Wolfpack last night in Tallahassee, isn’t likely going anywhere in March, except maybe on an NIT road game.

    Face the facts, folks. This team should be getting better but simply isn’t. If anything, they’re getting worse. What we have here is mainly a bunch of street-ballers who still don’t function as a cohesive team unit, can’t shoot free throws, hold on to the ball, take sensible shots, or play consistent defense. We just beat the last-place team in the league on a win-or-lose 30-footer at the buzzer. I don’t think this win over GT will matter in the overall picture, and it sure didn’t matter much in Winston Tuesday night.

    I still think that a 6 or 7-man rotation would work better for this team rather than the continual subbing in and out of players, especially when someone on the floor makes a boo-boo. The three players most important to this team right now to me are Barber, Lacey and Washington. Those three, along with Abu and the Martin twins, would be my team most of the game. I like Turner, but he has become a poor man’s version of Scott Wood, who could at least shoot free throws and occasionally play defense.

    I wouldn’t want to have to coach this team, and I’m beginning to wonder if those who have to really want to.

    #73419
    Khan
    Participant

    ^ 13OT: #truestory

    #73422
    PapaJohn
    Participant

    ^^13OT – Love that lineup. I think you get more energy, better defense, and – based on the way RT has played of late – not much, if any, loss of offense. Caleb and Cody sub for each other.

    I think you rotate in RT and Dez for rest breaks at the 2 or 3 and situational substitutions, RT for some instant offense when we are in a slump, Dez for some energy and defense.

    Nard’s got no offense, so he should only be called to give KW and Malik a couple of minutes’ rest.
    BeeJay’s run out of gas. Last guy off the bench. Basically he only plays if KW or Malik is in foul trouble. (which means most games)

    #73423
    choppack1
    Participant

    13ot – I’m assuming you mean 9 or 10 Acc wins not 9 or 10 more wins.

    If that’s the case I agree – we’d need to go @ least 4-3 our next season… Which could happen, after all we went 4-3 with games @ uva, @ Miami, @ FSU, with home games vs Pitt, wake, UNC and duke.

    We have @ ville, @ Clemson, @ BC (or is it @ vatech?) @ unc
    At home we have uva, cuse, vatech(? See above)…

    If we win 4 vs. That schedule we’d have at least 2 quality wins and as I indicated above an RPI similar to what it was before wake… As others have mentioned we’d then have avoid the 1st round loss to avoid the RPI event. Losing to our next opponent probably wouldn’t hurt our RPI and would improve our sos and we’d be on the edge of our seats on selection Sunday.

    But as you indicated – at this point that seems unlikely. Still its sports and crazy stuff happens all the time.

    #73430
    wufpup76
    Keymaster

    I had written a long opinion piece here in this comments section based in part off of 13OT’s observations, but hit backspace and away it went – unable to recover. I’m going to put up an opinion piece on the front page based on what 13OT touched on either tonight or tomorrow. I feel it is worthy of an at-large discussion.

    We’ve had a lot of front page activity the last couple of days, and I don’t want to push all that down even further. Plus, I don’t have the heart to re-create all the work I just did 🙂

    Anyway, some solid observations here and in other threads, and I hope to add to it tonight/tomorrow.

    #73432
    choppack1
    Participant

    Here’s a question – have we had 2 quality wins in a row since our run to the sweet 16?

    This period of time really does harken back to last 5 of hwsbn without the acc championship runs…better scheduling – that’s the biggest off-court difference. But Tue results are el mismo.

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