How Long is Long Enough? Opinions Are All Over The Place…

badgeHow long should a team give a coach to turn a program around?

It’s an interesting question, and one that seems to be on the lips of many an NC State fan after the past couple of basketball seasons.  Me, I am not saying one way or the other that State should “do something” about head coach Sidney Lowe, as I think that will be decided by next year’s results.  I think that’s only fair, to let a coach build his own team according to his designs.  But I do think that next year will be the proverbial fish-or-cut-bait season for Lowe, and that his tenure will be decided about this time of year in 2010.  One thing is for sure — other schools are not waiting that long to come to a conclusion about their own coaches.

Opinions are of course all over the NC State map on this question, with some saying fire Lowe now, others saying fire Lowe, Fowler and Chancellor Oblinger now, all the way to folks who think Lowe should get a raise and a contract extension.  I guess with a family as large as Wolfpack Nation, a range of opinions that wide is to be expected.

Here’s something I found today that I think is interesting.  I’m guessing that this was written by one of our younger fans, someone who probably never witnessed the  days of NC State being highly competitive in ACC basketball.  It’s a comment I found about Kentucky potentially firing head coach Billy Gillespie after the Willdcats have underperformed for the past two seasons under his guidance.

“Kentucky is not NC State. They have won 3 SEC championships since 2000 and 7 more during the ’90s. How many ACC championships did we win during that time span? The rebuilding job is not the same so they can’t be held to the same standard, imo.”

On the surface, this is true — the UK program’s heritage, both recent and historical is far deeper than NC State’s.  Facts are facts.

But some other facts jump out that are equally interesting:

  • “Along the way Gillispie grew more publicly critical of his players, often foisting the blame onto their shoulders.”
  • “Playing time for some players rose and fell seemingly on a whim.”
  • And most damning, the Wildcats record was 22-13 with only a .500 conference record in the sub-par SEC and no NCAA bid for a team that considers these bids to be a birthright.

If the first two don’t sound familiar, they should. Sounds like a movie we just saw…I forget the name, but I think it was a disaster movie.

More to the point, however, let’s take a look at how long it can take a good coach to turn a marginal team around.

  • Sean Miller is in his fifth season at Xavier  and has made the NCAA four of those years, with an Elite 8 and a  Sweet 16 to his credit the past two years.
  • Mike Anderson is in his third season at Missouri and is going to the Elite 8, after defeating #1 seed Memphis last night.  Keep in mind that Mizzou was on three years NCAA probation until 2007.
  • Travis Ford took Oklahoma State to the NCAA second round in his first season.

In other words, it doesn’t take twenty years, ten years or even five years to turn the ship on a major D1 program.  And if you don’t think NC State is a major D1 program, have you noticed the size of the University and the investment it has made in its basketball facilities?  Indeed, NC State may not be Kentucky, but then again, neither is Mizzou, Xavier or a host of other schools.  They turned around quickly and to say that NC State cannot do so it utterly ridiculous.

Schools like Kentucky and UNC don’t wait long to fold losing hands — we saw that with Mat Doherty and we are seeing that with Billy Gillespie now.  Gillespie will probably be shown the blue door in the next few days (my suspicion is during the Final Four. UPDATE: It’s official)  People may ask, what is Kentucky waiting on?  I would guess buyout considerations and maybe ensuring that they have someone to step in immediately.  Schools like UK don’t tend towards coaching searches conducted in secret bunkers on Kerr Lake in a bass boat where there is spotty cellphone coverage.  Most importantly, schools like Kentucky DO take decisive steps to protect their perceived place in the college basketball world and there, WTNY doesn’t cut it.  Maybe that’s why a Kentucky is a Kentucky?

At the end of the day, I think that the author of that comment is drinking Fowler-flavor Kool-Aid.  And I am certain it doesn’t take five or ten years to turn around a mediocre and underperforming hoops program.

09-10 Basketball NCS Basketball Quotes of Note Sidney Lowe

184 Responses to How Long is Long Enough? Opinions Are All Over The Place…

  1. Wulfpack 03/27/2009 at 5:17 PM #

    Billy G screwed some co-eds over there in Lexington? Strong.

  2. BSIE80 03/27/2009 at 5:24 PM #

    So do you replace a coach every 3 years because we pay 1 million or so and we expect to be in the NCAAT.

    We can make plans like this:
    Sid 2007-2009
    S Miller 2010-2012
    A Miller 2013-2015
    Bob Knight 2016-2018
    Chris Corchiani 2019-2021
    Rodney Monroe 2022-2024
    Justin Gainey 2025-2027
    Noah 2028-2030

  3. chuck 03/27/2009 at 5:54 PM #

    ^
    At the risk of fanning the flames, I should point out that our current coach basically has a degree from an on-line university. He finished up his BA at St. Paul’s (VA) over the internet, if I’m not mistaken.

  4. Greywolf 03/27/2009 at 6:02 PM #

    The complaint that we all had with HS was his boring style of play. I suppose the gap between us rivals, UNC and Duke, was a source of pain also. The AD, the inner circle of big donors, the Chancellor, Sid and likely some representative of the BOT conferred and concluded that it might take as long as six years to GRADUATE the current players recruited for their suitability to play in the Princeton offence and restock the cupboard with athletes that have the ability to run, shoot, rebound, defend and play a style that can take us to the level of Dook and UNX and compete for National Championships.
    `
    This approach is mature and sound and has the best chance of succeeding and reaching those goals. A “pick and hope” plan that gives 3 year windows of opportunity is far more risky and exposes us to the possibility of a Bob Staak, Pete Gillen and Skip Prosser result that would put us where we are were 3 years ago and squandered any chance of benefiting from legacy that Everett Case, Norm Sloan and Jimmy V left.
    `
    Sid may not make it. He may not be able to learn what he needs to know. I think taking a chance that he could learn and make it was a better path than hiring someone and hoping they could develop the level of integrity, passion for NCSU and interest in what’s best for the student athlete who wants what we have to offer at NCSU.
    `
    If Sid does not make it, NCSU basketball program will have athletes that our next coach can win with. I’m acknowledging all the mistakes, bad signs, etc. Sid has exhibited. That said, I’m betting on Sid to learn and become the kind of coach who can meet the goal of the AD, Chancellor, the WPC and the BOT.
    `
    A couple of after thoughts: One way of reducing what I have to read here is eliminate from consideration anything anyone who still thinks LF has the power to hire and fire the basketball coach. That assumption does make it easy to ridicule LF but as far as facts are concerned, those statements are ludicrous.
    `
    The same people who wanted Sid to pull Brandon Costner’s scholarship are now saying that his graduating and leaving is a bad sign for Sid. I say it is a wonderful sign that he have at least one attribute that we demand of coaches at NCSU. TOB has that attribute in spades.
    `
    “Big money men” didn’t get to be “money men” by abandoning their five and ten year plans the first year because immediate success didn’t happen, or the second or third year or even the fourth year. These men are not successful because they are intolerant of failure; they are successful because of their vision and ability to see what it will take to transcend failure. These “money men” sat down with the Chancellor, the AD and Sid and determined it would take 6 years to get where they want the NCSU basketball program to be. You can count on Sid and LF being here until the end of the sixth year and all the grumbling, griping and grousing by “the fan base” isn’t going to make a damn bit of difference.
    `
    Finally you can bet your hat, ass and overcoat that coaches, recruits, point guards and big men were not a part of their discussion. Their plan is built or based on a foundation of integrity, not AAU hot-shots or sleazy coaches.

  5. Ed89 03/27/2009 at 6:05 PM #

    BSIE80, I had to laugh at your posts, and I agree with most of your first one. However, I won’t say 8-8 is exceptional. I think we have a higher ceiling. 8-8 will be good for next year. I would expect more in year 5 and 6. I think we should go for Vinny Del Negro from 2028-2030. Give it to Noah when Vinny fails.

  6. Wulfpack 03/27/2009 at 6:10 PM #

    That’s a well thought out post Greywolf. But my opinion is that IF next year is similar to the last 3, the decision makers will have no choice but to move in a different direction. I’m sensing the scale is tipping and 1 more bad year and we’ll have an avalanche. That’s the clear consensus I am hearing.

  7. BSIE80 03/27/2009 at 6:30 PM #

    Forgot about vinny…

  8. TheCOWDOG 03/27/2009 at 6:46 PM #

    ” Their plan is built or based on a foundation of integrity, not AAU hot-shots or sleazy coaches.”

    Thanks Grey. Witness the one friggin coach in the ACC that puts a product on the floor without wallowing in the grease trap that NCAA basketball is at the ” upper echelon ”

    Gary freaking Williams. A coach that 2/3 of the posters here villify the shit out of, not to mention his own fan base!

    He refuses to recruit in the muck and somehow coaches his mutts to a level that 101 other dalmations would covet.

    On another angle, can any of you name a school that got instant returns after canning
    or not retaining the guy now gone? Anyone? Come on… Let me help. Roy over Do, Howland over Lavin, now I’m stuck. For a freakin’ reason. Do better boys. It’s a challenge. Go ‘Cuse.

  9. BAC79 03/27/2009 at 6:56 PM #

    “The AD, the inner circle of big donors, the Chancellor, Sid and likely some representative of the BOT conferred and concluded that it might take as long as six years to GRADUATE the current players recruited for their suitability to play in the Princeton offence and restock the cupboard with athletes that have the ability to run, shoot, rebound, defend and play a style that can take us to the level of Dook and UNX and compete for National Championships.”

    Where do you get this stuff? Were you at this fictional meeting where these folks crafted this six year plan?

  10. LRM 03/27/2009 at 6:57 PM #

    “He has a 5 or 6 year contract? I think we honor this. If he does an exceptional job next year (to me 8-8 in conference, nit invite) we extend his contract. If we fall short, then we give him another year before we make this decision….”

    You just defined 8-8 with an NIT invite as an “exceptional” job. Wow. For an idealist, you sure dream small.

    I’m a BSIE, too (2001) — any chance you’re hiring? I promise to succeed 50% of the time; of course then I’ll expect an “exceptional” job review and (of course) a hefty pay raise. (All in jest)

  11. buttPACKer 03/27/2009 at 7:01 PM #

    6 yrs, Greywolf? the only way Sid makes it to year 6 is if he wins the ACC tournament next year, along with the regular season title.

    Considering the pressure building at this stage of the game, there is no way he makes it past next season without SIGNIFICANT progress. . . And, he should not. I think you are confusing integrity with stupidity. At some point, you cut your losses.

  12. BSIE80 03/27/2009 at 7:04 PM #

    Well, I’m looking at our roster and our competition.
    We will have a very young team next year.
    No McDondald guys.

    We still have issues at the point.
    Our frontcourt has no depth.

    What can I say? I’m an idealist but also a realist…

  13. TheCOWDOG 03/27/2009 at 7:08 PM #

    Come on boys, I’m still waiting for answers….

  14. BSIE80 03/27/2009 at 7:30 PM #

    5 yrs minimum cowdog, unless the guy turns out to be a dick, then 1 game….

  15. TheCOWDOG 03/27/2009 at 7:44 PM #

    B80…that’s his contract, I’m good with that.

    While we watch these games I’m still looking for our let’s do it now folks to take up my challenge.

    Hell, no disrespect to my man Red, but I’m ready to pull one.

  16. choppack1 03/27/2009 at 8:33 PM #

    Cow – Travis Ford at Oklahoma State.

    I think Thad Matta may have turned around tOSU fast.

    I’m not sure how long it took Painter at Purdue.

    Lon Kruger at UNLV

    Keno Davis put together quite a turnaround this year at Providence.

    Bruce Pearl did the same at UT.

    Huggins took Belien’s PO guys and turned that around pretty quick.

    I don’t know what Pitino did his first year at Louisville.

    Hewitt at GaTech had a quite a turnaround from Cremins taking them back to the NCAAs his first year.

  17. Wolf Dog 03/27/2009 at 8:42 PM #

    Post deleted because it contains a personal attack.

  18. buttPACKer 03/27/2009 at 8:52 PM #

    you guys have really got to lay off the personal attacks. . .

    we got this.

  19. Noah 03/27/2009 at 9:12 PM #

    Post deleted because it contains a personal attack

  20. Alpha Wolf 03/27/2009 at 9:38 PM #

    Cowdog, I am not sure I understand your question.

    What exactly are you asking, again?

  21. Greywolf 03/27/2009 at 9:59 PM #

    “Herb had a very decent class coming in and he had very decent recruits on the vine. Those recruits were lost by Fowler after Herb’s departure.”
    Alpha, If Calipari goes to Kentucky and Wall and Leslie wind up at Kentucky, Will RC Johnson be blamed for losing them?
    `
    Herb’s decent recruits, were they McDonalds AAs who could compete with UNX and Dook? Or were they about the same as Herb had been bringing in — his other “decent” classes. By refusing to let them out of their letters of intent — I assume that’s what you mean when you say “lost by Fowler” — we lost athletes who could run, shoot, and defend? Were these “lost” recruits of the caliber of Lawsom, McClinton, Vasquez, Tommy Smith, Rice, etc.?
    `
    I for one believe that letting athletes out of letters of intent when coaches no longer are going to be at the school, is the ‘right’ thing to do. If I were the incoming coach, I’m not sure I would want players there who did not want to play for me. But everybody’s different. Perhaps dealing with players who wanted to be somewhere else is your cup of tea.
    `
    I just looked up “whipping boy” in the dictionary and found Lee Fowler’s picture.

  22. Alpha Wolf 03/27/2009 at 10:07 PM #

    Alpha, If Calipari goes to Kentucky and Wall and Leslie wind up at Kentucky, Will RC Johnson be blamed for losing them?

    Have Wall or Leslie signed LOIs, or have I missed something?

    From everything I have heard (from multiple people, some close to the situation) NCSU handled the gap between Sendek and Lowe very poorly, with hardly any contact with recruits. It’s no secret, it is in the news archives from the time and recruits parents talked about it then.

    And those were guys who had signed LOIs.

    Who managed that transition, again?

    As for letting a player out of an LOI after a coach leaves, you may want to read the verbiage that clearly states to the prospective athlete that they are signing for the school and not the coach. It is in black and white — and stated as plain as day.

    I will agree releasing players is the right thing to do, but I will also say that the transition process was bungled here.

    So yes, I do place some of the blame at the feet of Fowler for his poor management.

  23. Noah 03/27/2009 at 10:09 PM #

    I believe the three recruits that we missed on when Sendek left were Julian Vaughn, Chris Wright and Jamelle McMillan.

    Wright was an all-american. Vaughn was a top-50 guy and McMillan was a top-75 guy.

    Vaughn has done little to nothing at FSU and Georgetown. McMillan has been a solid backup at ASU, I think.

    I don’t know if we would have gotten Hardin or not if Sendek had stayed. If we would have, a backcourt of Wright and Hardin would probably have been the second-best backcourt in the ACC this past year.

    Also, regarding Cowdog’s question — I don’t need INSTANT returns. I just need to know that returns are coming. I know what I’m getting out of Lowe. It’s the same thing he produced in the pros and the same thing he produced for three years in college. SQUAT.

  24. BJD95 03/27/2009 at 11:03 PM #

    Again, I thought we were moving towards a healthy consensus. Dance or bust next year. I can live with that, and it cools off my agitation a bit.

    In no way, shape, or form am I going to accept 2 more years with no questions asked.

    So, if you are trying to cool the passions of those who are ready to move on from the Lowe experiment, I suggest you not take the latter tack. And telling the restless natives “your concerns don’t matter, so shut up and deal with it” absolutely will not work.

    Further, I don’t care what Lowe’s personnel situation is, in YEAR FREAKING FOUR. Overachieving with subpar talent and going 8-8 and underachieving with great talent and going 8-8 gets the same damned grade from me. Fire the coach or fire the GM? Because Lowe is both.

    It’s not about expectations at this point. It’s about meeting a concrete benchmark. Our personnel may give Lowe a 5% chance to meet it, or a 75% chance. But he’s the GM. The benchmark doesn’t move.

    For the record, I only give a 5th year when the school is coming off a serious probation. In basketball, 4 years is more than enough.

    And that is completely consistent with a 6 year contract, since it’s untenable for a coach not to have at least 2 more years on his deal. So, an initial 6-year deal means you can expect a thorough performance review after Year Four.

  25. wolfpack95 03/27/2009 at 11:17 PM #

    This trainwreck will be over within a year’s time. There is no reason to believe that Lowe will succeed now or in the future at NCSU.

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