How Long is Long Enough? Opinions Are All Over The Place…

09-10 Basketball NCS Basketball Quotes of Note Sidney Lowe184

badgeHow long should a team give a coach to turn a program around?

It’s an interesting question, and one that seems to be on the lips of many an NC State fan after the past couple of basketball seasons.  Me, I am not saying one way or the other that State should “do something” about head coach Sidney Lowe, as I think that will be decided by next year’s results.  I think that’s only fair, to let a coach build his own team according to his designs.  But I do think that next year will be the proverbial fish-or-cut-bait season for Lowe, and that his tenure will be decided about this time of year in 2010.  One thing is for sure — other schools are not waiting that long to come to a conclusion about their own coaches.

Opinions are of course all over the NC State map on this question, with some saying fire Lowe now, others saying fire Lowe, Fowler and Chancellor Oblinger now, all the way to folks who think Lowe should get a raise and a contract extension.  I guess with a family as large as Wolfpack Nation, a range of opinions that wide is to be expected.

Here’s something I found today that I think is interesting.  I’m guessing that this was written by one of our younger fans, someone who probably never witnessed the  days of NC State being highly competitive in ACC basketball.  It’s a comment I found about Kentucky potentially firing head coach Billy Gillespie after the Willdcats have underperformed for the past two seasons under his guidance.

“Kentucky is not NC State. They have won 3 SEC championships since 2000 and 7 more during the ’90s. How many ACC championships did we win during that time span? The rebuilding job is not the same so they can’t be held to the same standard, imo.”

On the surface, this is true — the UK program’s heritage, both recent and historical is far deeper than NC State’s.  Facts are facts.

But some other facts jump out that are equally interesting:

  • “Along the way Gillispie grew more publicly critical of his players, often foisting the blame onto their shoulders.”
  • “Playing time for some players rose and fell seemingly on a whim.”
  • And most damning, the Wildcats record was 22-13 with only a .500 conference record in the sub-par SEC and no NCAA bid for a team that considers these bids to be a birthright.

If the first two don’t sound familiar, they should. Sounds like a movie we just saw…I forget the name, but I think it was a disaster movie.

More to the point, however, let’s take a look at how long it can take a good coach to turn a marginal team around.

  • Sean Miller is in his fifth season at Xavier  and has made the NCAA four of those years, with an Elite 8 and a  Sweet 16 to his credit the past two years.
  • Mike Anderson is in his third season at Missouri and is going to the Elite 8, after defeating #1 seed Memphis last night.  Keep in mind that Mizzou was on three years NCAA probation until 2007.
  • Travis Ford took Oklahoma State to the NCAA second round in his first season.

In other words, it doesn’t take twenty years, ten years or even five years to turn the ship on a major D1 program.  And if you don’t think NC State is a major D1 program, have you noticed the size of the University and the investment it has made in its basketball facilities?  Indeed, NC State may not be Kentucky, but then again, neither is Mizzou, Xavier or a host of other schools.  They turned around quickly and to say that NC State cannot do so it utterly ridiculous.

Schools like Kentucky and UNC don’t wait long to fold losing hands — we saw that with Mat Doherty and we are seeing that with Billy Gillespie now.  Gillespie will probably be shown the blue door in the next few days (my suspicion is during the Final Four. UPDATE: It’s official)  People may ask, what is Kentucky waiting on?  I would guess buyout considerations and maybe ensuring that they have someone to step in immediately.  Schools like UK don’t tend towards coaching searches conducted in secret bunkers on Kerr Lake in a bass boat where there is spotty cellphone coverage.  Most importantly, schools like Kentucky DO take decisive steps to protect their perceived place in the college basketball world and there, WTNY doesn’t cut it.  Maybe that’s why a Kentucky is a Kentucky?

At the end of the day, I think that the author of that comment is drinking Fowler-flavor Kool-Aid.  And I am certain it doesn’t take five or ten years to turn around a mediocre and underperforming hoops program.

09-10 Basketball NCS Basketball Quotes of Note Sidney Lowe

184 Responses to How Long is Long Enough? Opinions Are All Over The Place…

  1. Thinkpack17 03/27/2009 at 2:29 PM #

    @ Afterglow

    You don’t have to read a blog to hear the grumblings of the fair-weather fans. We do have a great fan base, but we also have jerks who want a quick fix so they can wear their red sportcoats to church and rub victories on the faces of Carolina fans. Sid has only been here a short time and some are already calling for his head, did I curse him a few times this year? Hell yeah I did. But I know if you hire a rookie coach, he is going to have rookie moments. I also know you don’t put one of your own’s head on a spike without having a replacement. Especially when we threw a boatload of money at anyone who would talk to us last time (Lavin, Barnes, Cal) and we got laughed at like we had a breifcase full of Euros.

  2. buttPACKer 03/27/2009 at 2:32 PM #

    ^”Rite, we know. But he’s already hired, so, now what?”

    Uh, FIRE his fu*king ass.

  3. choppack1 03/27/2009 at 2:35 PM #

    “I think, the situation Sid stepped into was about as toxic as the situation Herb started out with, and was the reason Herb left. He knew he had little in the cupboard, and the heat was on, so he went to the desert where it’s cooler.

    As such, the first 2 years Sid gets a pass from me.

    This year, I saw some signs of improvement- though slow and frustrating.

    Next year, no free pass- improvement, and measureable improvement, needs to happen, or we need to try something else. NCAA bubble is good enough for next year as a minimal goal for me. ”

    Astral – I see where you are coming from. I think if an experienced and solid coach had stepped into the same situation, I don’t know how different the results are in Year 1. However, year 2 to me was red flag to a lot of us.

    I’m in the minority here – but I was very concerned w/ the inconsistency I saw in effort and execution in Year 1. However, we finished so strong, I basically assumed that Sid had learned a thing or two about the college game and what we were seeing was him understanding the motivation and preparation game better.

    The results of year 2 invalidated that assumption. Year 3 was definitely an improvement over year 1 and year 2. But we are still not doing the things good teams do to win.

  4. Thinkpack17 03/27/2009 at 2:38 PM #

    Yeah fire Sid…then we have Brown and Howell decommit and we are back at square one. We have another crappy season next year despite Tracy Smith playing fantastic. He declares early for the draft and you guys say Coach X sucks!

  5. buttPACKer 03/27/2009 at 2:42 PM #

    ^”Who would want to come to a school with fans like this?”

    It amazes me that some people actually think that NC State fans are the ONLY ones who criticize–rightfully so–poor performance of their athletic programs. . . I invite you to look at any, ANY other major div.1 team’s fan blogs, and you will see at least the equal of anything “negative” you see here. WE have not caused the failure of this program, the Coach(es) have.

  6. Packman02 03/27/2009 at 2:44 PM #

    ^ Not that I’m in support of firing Lowe, but if we pull the trigger, the three recruits for the Class of 2009 cannot ‘decommit’, as they have all signed LOIs. We could release them from their scholarships (a-la Dan Werner and the guy that ended up at Seton Hall…Larry something).

  7. waxhaw 03/27/2009 at 2:50 PM #

    ^ Byrd???

    …..I think it was Larry Davis.

  8. buttPACKer 03/27/2009 at 2:50 PM #

    Thinkpack,

    we ARE at square one. . . and, likely, we’ll be there again next year–with LoBrown in tow. We’re not going to move far with an incompetent coach.

    The door is hardly revolving when you’ve had two coaches in 13 years, and by your stanards at least 15 yrs. I’d say the door was rather jammed, not revolving.

  9. LRM 03/27/2009 at 2:51 PM #

    “LRM…No, not implying Duke or UNC…implying the rest of the ACC. Read my post.”

    Ok then, I stand corrected. In 11 years, including all conference games, ACC Tournament, and the game against Wake in the 2000 NIT, Herb “competed” against the “rest of the ACC” with a record of 74-64 (.536).

    But why stop there? Let’s eliminate Maryland, too, since they were an elite program from 2000-2002, with two Final Fours and a National Title, and then won the ACC in 2004, so that’s 3-8 over four seasons we can eliminate, which pushes Sendek’s record to 71-56 (.559) against the non-elite teams of the ACC.

    I guess I better stop now, otherwise I’m going to eliminate enough of the elite teams to finally validate your point.

  10. Noah 03/27/2009 at 2:53 PM #

    But I know if you hire a rookie coach, he is going to have rookie moments. I also know you don’t put one of your own’s head on a spike without having a replacement

    Which is why you don’t a) Hire a rookie and b) Hire someone that you’re too scared to fire.

    Especially when we threw a boatload of money at anyone who would talk to us last time (Lavin, Barnes, Cal) and we got laughed at like we had a breifcase full of Euros.

    Except that we didn’t do that. And I suggest you take a look at the current exchange rates before you make that analogy again.

  11. Gene 03/27/2009 at 2:53 PM #

    Just looking at NCSU’s history from an outside perspective, the fans (this goes for any program) tend to magnify the success. We had success in the ACC tournament, as evidenced by our 10 ACC titles till 1987. We’ve not had a lot of success on the national stage. We’ve been to two Final Fours, winning two championships in those three trips. We’ve never been a program, who kept getting to the Final Four on a regular basis, when we did go to the NCAA tournament.

    We’ve never been competitive – as in we can beat them just as easily as they can beat us – with UNC and now with Duke. Maybe in the 1950’s we were an intense rivalry, but after Case’s recruiting scandal’s UNC’s been ahead of us and stayed ahead of us. We’ve had our moments and pulled our upsets off, but Herb’s last loss to UNC in the RBC center was one of the very few times we’ve been favored to win against them.

    Can NCSU become what UConn, Florida, etc. have done in the past 10-15 years? Sure, it’s possible, but I think we need to step back and reassess where we are and have been in the national pecking order of prestigious programs.

    The NCSU brand needs to be remade from scratch and rebuilt. The only way to do it is to pile up wins, especially in March. Whoever takes over this program need has a rebuilding job to do.

  12. Thinkpack17 03/27/2009 at 2:54 PM #

    “It amazes me that some people actually think that NC State fans are the ONLY ones who criticize–rightfully so–poor performance of their athletic programs.”

    Like I said…I was mad at points in the season. I was PISSED OFF, I criticize and critique. That doesn’t mean you have to call for the guys head. That’s whiny Carolina crap…historically, State fans have been better than that.

    “Not that I’m in support of firing Lowe, but if we pull the trigger, the three recruits for the Class of 2009 cannot ‘decommit’, as they have all signed LOIs.”

    You’re right, but there’s no way a new coach keeps them from leaving…the dude was Larry Davis.

  13. Noah 03/27/2009 at 2:57 PM #

    Yeah fire Sid…then we have Brown and Howell decommit and we are back at square one. We have another crappy season next year despite Tracy Smith playing fantastic. He declares early for the draft and you guys say Coach X sucks!

    Well…Brown and Howell can’t decommit since they’ve already signed LOIs. Secondly, Brown still isn’t qualified. So, first things first.

    Tracy Smith is going to go pro in what sport? I didn’t realize there was such a demand for 6-7 power forwards in the NBA who averaged 10 points a game in college.

    Is he a good bowler or something?

  14. buttPACKer 03/27/2009 at 2:57 PM #

    Gene,

    I agree.

  15. Noah 03/27/2009 at 2:57 PM #

    You’re right, but there’s no way a new coach keeps them from leaving…the dude was Larry Davis.

    That’s a really stupid argument for keeping a coach.

  16. Moose Hunter 03/27/2009 at 2:57 PM #

    A pharmaceutical company I use to work for had a motto about drug candidates in the discovery pipeline: Fail fast. That means the fish or cut bait decision needs to be made as quickly as possible when resonable people have facts to act. NC State and Fowler seem to be 180 degrees opposite of that. They would rather fail painfully slowly and at a maximal cost. I respect institutions like Kentucky that have high standards in and out of the program, can define at an early stage what “fail” means, and have the vision to act on it.

  17. Thinkpack17 03/27/2009 at 2:59 PM #

    “Except that we didn’t do that. And I suggest you take a look at the current exchange rates before you make that analogy again.”

    That was a “Beerfest” reference. Relax.

    “Which is why you don’t a) Hire a rookie and b) Hire someone that you’re too scared to fire.”

    I agree…you don’t hire a rookie. But we didn’t leave ourselves with much of an option did we? Didn’t I see someone suggest Jason Capel on one of these fire Sid boards? Good God.

  18. NeverGiveUp 03/27/2009 at 3:00 PM #

    I wish Fowler and company would start looking for the next guy before they let Sidney go. Does anyone recall what happen to Auburn’s David Housel (AD) and William Walker (President) when they went looking for the next guy before they let the current guy go? If only we could be as lucky.

  19. buttPACKer 03/27/2009 at 3:03 PM #

    death from a thousand cuts > State BB fan

  20. Thinkpack17 03/27/2009 at 3:04 PM #

    “That’s a really stupid argument for keeping a coach.”

    My argument for keeping him is that we don’t have a replacement…that’s stupid? Don’t be a moron.

    “I didn’t realize there was such a demand for 6-7 power forwards in the NBA who averaged 10 points a game in college.”

    Since when did demand or production become a prerequisite for a state player declaring for the draft?

  21. Alpha Wolf 03/27/2009 at 3:05 PM #

    ““I think, the situation Sid stepped into was about as toxic as the situation Herb started out with, and was the reason Herb left. He knew he had little in the cupboard, and the heat was on, so he went to the desert where it’s cooler.”

    I can agree with the situation being toxic. I categorically do not believe that the cupboard was bare. That conventional wisdom is quite simply incorrect historical revisionism.

    Herb had a very decent class coming in and he had very decent recruits on the vine. Those recruits were lost by Fowler after Herb’s departure. THAT was what emptied the cupboard.

    Secondly, Herb is a relationship builder and he already had his irons in the fire with other players. Guys like Nate MacMillan’s kid, for example. Ask yourself this: do you really believe that the cupboard would have been bare had James Harden come to NCSU? Heck, he could have hired Harden’s AAU coach into NC State just as easily as ASU.

    At the end of the day, Sid came in to tough circumstances, and is indeed working hard to overcome that rough start. But he also still needs to improve as a coach — to ratchet up his defense, to identify a working rotation before January, not in the second half of the season, to man up and not blame his players publicly, etc. None of those things can be blamed on cupboards, recruiting, or even Duke and Carolina. They are Sid’s and Sid’s alone and those are easily identifiable areas where he needs to grow as a leader.

  22. Wolf Dog 03/27/2009 at 3:10 PM #

    Thinkpack “@Noah who is the next guy”

    You asking the wrong person. I think Noah has bad mouthed every coach we’ve had. Even bad mouths V. Would you want to be a coach at a school with a fan base of Noah’s?

    Our next coach whenever that may be will not be dedcided by anyone here. It will be decided by a handful of people in conjuction with LF. Think guy with the plane and a few others. And Sid will be the coach unitl the guy with the plane and a few others say otherwise. At this point they still keeping Sid. They still on board. I am still on board also myself. Sid has done many good things and has grown as a college coach. I hope that will equal more success in the future if not my feeling is Sid himself will step aside. And that is not a possiblity until 2 years from now in my opinion.

    One thing I have learned from Sid is he loved coaching in the NBA. So if Sid doesn’t look worried about his future it is because he is not, he will not have a problem finding a job.

  23. BJD95 03/27/2009 at 3:12 PM #

    For anyone who says calling for someone’s head is the “Carolina” thing to do – I guess that would be the only part of Carolina I would admire. Having expectations for athletic success, and taking proactive steps to get where they want to be.

    I am grudgingly willing to give him one more season. That’s it. No ifs, and, or buts – dance, or hit the road.

  24. Alpha Wolf 03/27/2009 at 3:14 PM #

    “Would you want to be a coach at a school with a fan base of Noah’s? ”

    Please name one that isn’t.

    Take a look at Alabama football.

    Kentucky hoops.

    The Chicago Bears.

    Hell, even Carolina fans were calling Roy an idiot for not calling timeouts in the Final Four last year.

  25. Daily Update 03/27/2009 at 3:16 PM #

    There is no set time that you have to give a coach. If you can ever grade your head coaching position, then you do so even it means firing a relatively new coach.

    What is “fair” to the old coach is that his contract is honored. Either the coach remains in the position until the end or if he is fired, then the contract clearly states a buyout the university must pay to compensate him. Being fired doesn’t mean a coach isn’t being treated “fairly”.

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