How Long is Long Enough? Opinions Are All Over The Place…

badgeHow long should a team give a coach to turn a program around?

It’s an interesting question, and one that seems to be on the lips of many an NC State fan after the past couple of basketball seasons.  Me, I am not saying one way or the other that State should “do something” about head coach Sidney Lowe, as I think that will be decided by next year’s results.  I think that’s only fair, to let a coach build his own team according to his designs.  But I do think that next year will be the proverbial fish-or-cut-bait season for Lowe, and that his tenure will be decided about this time of year in 2010.  One thing is for sure — other schools are not waiting that long to come to a conclusion about their own coaches.

Opinions are of course all over the NC State map on this question, with some saying fire Lowe now, others saying fire Lowe, Fowler and Chancellor Oblinger now, all the way to folks who think Lowe should get a raise and a contract extension.  I guess with a family as large as Wolfpack Nation, a range of opinions that wide is to be expected.

Here’s something I found today that I think is interesting.  I’m guessing that this was written by one of our younger fans, someone who probably never witnessed the  days of NC State being highly competitive in ACC basketball.  It’s a comment I found about Kentucky potentially firing head coach Billy Gillespie after the Willdcats have underperformed for the past two seasons under his guidance.

“Kentucky is not NC State. They have won 3 SEC championships since 2000 and 7 more during the ’90s. How many ACC championships did we win during that time span? The rebuilding job is not the same so they can’t be held to the same standard, imo.”

On the surface, this is true — the UK program’s heritage, both recent and historical is far deeper than NC State’s.  Facts are facts.

But some other facts jump out that are equally interesting:

  • “Along the way Gillispie grew more publicly critical of his players, often foisting the blame onto their shoulders.”
  • “Playing time for some players rose and fell seemingly on a whim.”
  • And most damning, the Wildcats record was 22-13 with only a .500 conference record in the sub-par SEC and no NCAA bid for a team that considers these bids to be a birthright.

If the first two don’t sound familiar, they should. Sounds like a movie we just saw…I forget the name, but I think it was a disaster movie.

More to the point, however, let’s take a look at how long it can take a good coach to turn a marginal team around.

  • Sean Miller is in his fifth season at Xavier  and has made the NCAA four of those years, with an Elite 8 and a  Sweet 16 to his credit the past two years.
  • Mike Anderson is in his third season at Missouri and is going to the Elite 8, after defeating #1 seed Memphis last night.  Keep in mind that Mizzou was on three years NCAA probation until 2007.
  • Travis Ford took Oklahoma State to the NCAA second round in his first season.

In other words, it doesn’t take twenty years, ten years or even five years to turn the ship on a major D1 program.  And if you don’t think NC State is a major D1 program, have you noticed the size of the University and the investment it has made in its basketball facilities?  Indeed, NC State may not be Kentucky, but then again, neither is Mizzou, Xavier or a host of other schools.  They turned around quickly and to say that NC State cannot do so it utterly ridiculous.

Schools like Kentucky and UNC don’t wait long to fold losing hands — we saw that with Mat Doherty and we are seeing that with Billy Gillespie now.  Gillespie will probably be shown the blue door in the next few days (my suspicion is during the Final Four. UPDATE: It’s official)  People may ask, what is Kentucky waiting on?  I would guess buyout considerations and maybe ensuring that they have someone to step in immediately.  Schools like UK don’t tend towards coaching searches conducted in secret bunkers on Kerr Lake in a bass boat where there is spotty cellphone coverage.  Most importantly, schools like Kentucky DO take decisive steps to protect their perceived place in the college basketball world and there, WTNY doesn’t cut it.  Maybe that’s why a Kentucky is a Kentucky?

At the end of the day, I think that the author of that comment is drinking Fowler-flavor Kool-Aid.  And I am certain it doesn’t take five or ten years to turn around a mediocre and underperforming hoops program.

09-10 Basketball NCS Basketball Quotes of Note Sidney Lowe

184 Responses to How Long is Long Enough? Opinions Are All Over The Place…

  1. PoppaJohn 03/28/2009 at 12:22 AM #

    To me, what we want is fairly straight forward.

    1. A coach that represents the school well.
    2. A coach that can staff or build a competitive team, either by recruiting quality players or by recruiting players that he can develop into quality players.
    3. A coach that prepares his team such that they play up to their potential night in and night out. In other words, makes the most of the hand he is dealt.

    1. Check – He’s there. He clearly loves the school, he represents us well, everyone wants him to succeed.
    2. Maybe???? – From what we hear, he’s getting in the door with the high quality recruits, and may be getting on their short lists, but with our lack of success in the recruits’ lifetimes, or immediate potential for success – it is tough to seal the deal. But the second point, developing talent, I don’t see it happening yet. But that may take more time. So I give him a MAYBE. He can sell his NBA and NCAA experience as a good future coach to a recruit, but selling the recruit on the opportunity to win big in the short term is tough.
    3. No – That is my biggest worry. We don’t see consistent performance from game to game, or often even half to half. Sometimes he appears to be all over the offensive end of the game, but we seldom seem to be able to get the key stops we need on the defensive end.

    Say what you want about Sendek (and we’ve said EVERYTHING many times), but one smart move he made was bringing Hunter in to help. Herb got smarter after that.

    Sid needs to assess his weaknesses and hire some help to fill the gaps. If he did that right now – I’d think there was more reason for optimism. My guess is, the powers that be behind the scenes thought that Monte would be Sid’s Larry Hunter and help him through the learning curve. And maybe he has, but I think Sid needs more help.

    My prediction? Next year is going to be bad and by the end of the year our local media will be filled with dire predictions for Sid’s future. (and this blog will be painful to read) If this year’s recruiting class lives up to the press clippings and appears to have great potential and there’s another similar class coming in the next year, then he gets another year. But if there is no reason to believe the following year will be a lot better, then he’s an NBA assistant again for 2010-2011.

    I started the post by saying, “what we want is fairly straight forward.” Obviously what we want is easier to describe than it is to get.

    Good Luck Sid!

  2. wufpup76 03/28/2009 at 12:47 AM #

    Good post Alpha … hate I missed most of the discussion as it was going on.

  3. Noah 03/28/2009 at 6:53 AM #

    PoppaJohn – I actually believe Lowe has failed on all three of your criteria.

    1. I won’t go into the details and you’re welcome to believe whatever you want.

    2. Being the second choice for a recruit and never recruiting the kid in the first place get you to exactly the same spot. Heading into year four and Lowe has signed exactly one marquee recruit…exactly the same number as Les Robinson did in his time here.

    3. Obviously, no.

  4. Greywolf 03/28/2009 at 8:42 AM #

    Alpha Wolf
    March 27th, 2009 at 10:07 pm
    Alpha, If Calipari goes to Kentucky and Wall and Leslie wind up at Kentucky, Will RC Johnson be blamed for losing them?

    “Have Wall or Leslie signed LOIs, or have I missed something?”
    `
    No, Alpha, you didn’t miss anything. You wrote, “…and he had very decent recruits on the vine. Those recruits were lost by Fowler after Herb’s departure.”
    `
    I’ll ask my question again, If Calipari goes to and Wall and Leslie wind up at Kentucky, will RC Johnson be blamed for losing them? Given your (and nearly everybody else’s) blaming LF for losing recruits on the vine, I think it is a fair question.
    `
    Lee Fowler is the most powerful man in the entire Consolidated University. The evidence for that: he has been personally responsible for more failures at NCSU than all the other previous ADs combined. (End sarcasm) We should just start every thread with “It’s all the AD’s fault. End of discussion.”
    `
    Alpha, I realize I ruffled a lot of feathers when I posted the “whipping boy” bit. It wasn’t an endorsement of anything, it was an observation of the nearly unanimous blaming LF for everything.

  5. TheCOWDOG 03/28/2009 at 8:59 AM #

    Chop,

    Matta was a very good pull on your list of coaches getting it done from the start.

    He is only one of 2 majors to garner 20 or more wins in his 1st 5 yrs.

    When you made made me think about him, I remembered the other guy…Bruce Webber.

    The rest on the list, well, nah…Pearl? OK.

    Hewitt in fact is in deep doo doo. As we know.

    By immediate success, I meant something in the nature of 2-3 yrs. and somewhat sustainable.

    The short list of coaches illustrates that a program does indeed need time. That’s the question of this post.

    Let’s keep in mind, that there were some other issues with Do and Gillespie that no matter how you slice it, provided a catalyst for the early hook.

    We know with the excommunication of the “Angry Man” great benefits came to those in baby blue.

    However, I think UK just might be in for some tough sledding. We shall see.

    Bottom line? How long is long enough?

    Barring conduct issues, IM(not so)HO, 1 complete cycle. It must happen by the fifth.

  6. TomCat 03/28/2009 at 9:14 AM #

    Lowe is a wonderful, loyal, former NC State athlete whose credibility is based considerably on past glory on the court at NCSU and getting a paycheck in a losing effort to baby-sit in the NBA. That doesn’t equate to a expectations of success in the college coaching landscape. To his credit, he stepped in and filled the void when the post-Herb coaching search process failed. That transition is now over. The best scenario for Sidney would be to make prudent plans to migrate back to the NBA and announce that he will be the ceremonial head of search committee for a new head basketball coach.

    It is official. Lowe, based on his NBA credentials can recruit- but he can’t coach on the college level. That leads to failed expectations and ultimately kills your recruiting ability. The time is now to get practical and create a transition plan which doesn’t turn out ugly as the Sendek process. Whether you like it or not- the previous proces was a disaster. Blame it on Fowler. Blame it on the coaching fraternity closing ranks around Sendek situation, labeling NC State as a undesirable job where you can’t win because of unrealistic expectations. Blame it on whatever you want. Bottomline – there needs to be an orderly transition. Nothing kills a program quicker than a serious of quick downwardly spiraling hirings/firings. Continuity is extremely important.

    So- who do you hire: Look at every coach in the sweet sixteen. What is there profile? That is your criteria- for going out and getting the next young guy. Reality check: NC State is not a destination job. Hasn’t been since the ’70’s. Major college basketball success isn’t decided by how much money you can throw at it. It is decided by smart decisions and execution.

    The best think beyond firing Lee Fowler would be for the Board of Trustees to demand a Gene Corrigan-like outside consultant team to find a match and strongly lean on there candidates for the job. This program chased it’s tail for way too long following Valvano and is now chasing it’s tail again after the continuity Sendek provided. The next hire needs to be a fundamentals guy who is young, talented, hungry and is going to work harder than anyone else. He’s out there. He may not be a known name. We have to get over the ego- and go get him.

  7. Noah 03/28/2009 at 9:29 AM #

    Just out of curiosity, what are you expecting to see in the fifth year that you haven’t seen in years three and four?

  8. BJD95 03/28/2009 at 9:34 AM #

    I agree with Noah’s next-to-last post and also won’t go into details. But it blows my mind when people throw out the character stuff.

    Four years is a complete cycle. Three years is a short cycle when the failure is too epic to be ignored. I think the short cycle is warranted, but can see the point of those pushing for the full four years.

    But not a minute more.

  9. TheCOWDOG 03/28/2009 at 10:00 AM #

    4 years is the complete cycle. The fifth gives you the possible Sr. and jr. from your 2nd and 3rd recruiting years the 2 most important yrs. in a new coach’s life.

    It’s very rare that recruiting yr. one holds the keys to success.

    IE., the short list.

    I know I’ll be countered with…”OK,let’s look at Sid’s recruiting. I will say…in Lowe’s 4th year, he will have 4 jrs. and 2 sr.

    In the 5th, he’ll have 4 sr and 2 jr. capable of playing at this level, already having significant court time this past year and have shown flashes of real playing ability.

    After that…fair game.

  10. TheCOWDOG 03/28/2009 at 10:29 AM #

    Revised:

    Yr four: 2 sr. 2 jr. 3 soph

    Yr five: 2 sr. 3 jr.

    My bad, but some good experience here surrounding some good youngins.

  11. TheCOWDOG 03/28/2009 at 11:08 AM #

    BJD : “But it blows my mind when people throw out the character stuff.”

    Why bra’ ? Are you saying it’s not an issue?
    Or it merely makes the hook “easier”?

    BJD: I’m saying that at best, Lowe doesn’t have any character elements that warrant giving him MORE time.

  12. buttPACKer 03/28/2009 at 11:21 AM #

    IF said coach has shown an iota of skill in his position, certainly give that man 4 or possibly 5 years. IF, however, it seems as though said coach is filling the Grand Canyon with a teaspoon, fire his ass and MOVE the fu*k on!

  13. buttPACKer 03/28/2009 at 11:23 AM #

    a GOOD coach will show SOME improvement, even if he’s coaching gimpy mongoloids. PERIOD.

  14. Cardiac95 03/28/2009 at 11:44 AM #

    Lowe’s performance to date has been below that of his immediate predecessor (either in total body of work or even comparing years 1-3) & significantly below the program’s historical performance. There is little evidence to support a major turnaround in Year 4.

    Unfortunately, our athletic leadership does not seem to care.

  15. Wolfpack_1995 03/28/2009 at 12:37 PM #

    I honestly believe that Lowe would have to get us involved with illegal activities to get fired.

    Fowler is concerned about running a clean program and as long as Sid abides we could finish last every year.

    The following is what I believe Fowler’s conversations to Lowe are like: “Just make sure the team and yourself stay out of trouble. I’ll take care of the rest.”

  16. PoppaJohn 03/28/2009 at 2:30 PM #

    Noah / BJD95 – Interesting comments on Sid’s character. I’ve been a long way from Raleigh during Sid’s time, so perhaps there are improprieties of which I am unaware. I’ll have to troll through some older SFN posts, I must have missed something. I can’t believe he’s got issues that haven’t been debated at length on these pages somewhere.

    As to recruiting ability, one can take the ‘half full’ or ‘half empty’ approach. I say it’s better to swing and miss. But I can’t deny, no home runs yet. As I noted, what’s he got to sell to that blue chip recruit? We have a really nice building, no doubt about that. The ACC is often thought of as a great conference – we looked pretty good during the season this year, but faded when it counted. He’d get playing time and it will be on TV, that’s attractive. We’ve got great stories from before the kid was born. That might influence some.
    But count off the negatives that the competing coaches will mention. No recent success by the program. Little evidence of coaching ability on Sid’s part. The fans aren’t happy, so the coach may not be here very long. No talent on the team to brag about. No recent history of blue chip recruits. No NBA stars Sid can point at and say, “hey, I made that guy a millionaire.” The opportunity to get man-handled on national TV by our neighbors in blue several times a year. Unless Sid’s got an incoming class that he can sell as “with you as the stud, we can go far” he will seldom hit the home run. How many teams have been playing post season ball during the last few weeks? 100? And we aren’t one of them. The hard truth is, there just aren’t many kids growing up who have watched us be great and want to be a part of it. They’ve watched us lose to the good teams and don’t want to be a part of it. So if Sid can get in the door, that is great. The more he does, the more likely it is that he’ll find that guy willing to give him a shot.

    And the sad truth is, that’s not likely to change soon, even when Sid leaves. Even if we brought in (“insert your version of the best possible replacement”) most of that still applies. The only thing that could improve is the coach’s track record. But the opportunity to get rolled by Roy and K every year isn’t likely to appeal to the kind of coach that can turn the program around quickly. Remember the last coaching search? We ended up with a guy who didn’t even have a diploma, and that wasn’t all Fowler’s fault. The reality is our best shot is to luck into an up and coming guy like we did with Coach V – but even then, we’ll have to endure some more lean times.

  17. chuck 03/28/2009 at 3:04 PM #

    ^
    “No recent history of blue chip recruits. No NBA stars Sid can point at and say, “hey, I made that guy a millionaire.” ”

    JJ Hickson is making $1,329,480 this year, according to ESPN.com. Maybe not a star, but definitely a millionaire.

  18. Noah 03/28/2009 at 4:13 PM #

    If the number of people you’ve put in the NBA is under five, it’s probably not worth mentioning.

    Afterall, Les Robinson recruited, coached and developed an NBA lottery pick and a couple of other kids that played in the NBA (two from his previous gig). Herb Sendek had a handful (Powell, Hodge, Wilkins and Simmons).

    But it’s like Rafael Belliard talking about all the home runs he hit.

  19. Ed89 03/28/2009 at 4:46 PM #

    ^^^If the number of people you’ve put in the NBA is under five, it’s probably not worth mentioning.

    He’s been here a whopping three years – and a college coach for only 3 years. How many first round draft picks would you expect in 3 years? How many has Brian Gregory put in the NBA? I know some of you who want instant gratification think 3 years is an eternity, but it’s not.

  20. chuck 03/28/2009 at 5:01 PM #

    Believe me, I wasn’t trying to say that recruiting JJ Hickson punches Sid’s ticket to the college basketball hall of fame.
    I just think it’s wrong to say, as PJ did above, that it is hard to sell State to blue-chip prospects.

  21. Thinkpack17 03/28/2009 at 5:50 PM #

    “He’s been here a whopping three years – and a college coach for only 3 years. How many first round draft picks would you expect in 3 years?”

    That’s the same thing I was thinking. It’s been three years, purely numbers comparisons to Herb isn’t fair. And I am a Herb guy, but Herb didn’t get Powell into the league. Powell got into the league DESPITE Herb, not BECAUSE of Herb. This dude Noah is comedy.

  22. Alpha Wolf 03/28/2009 at 6:10 PM #

    Greywolf: “Alpha, I realize I ruffled a lot of feathers when I posted the “whipping boy” bit. It wasn’t an endorsement of anything, it was an observation of the nearly unanimous blaming LF for everything.”

    Not mine — I have too much respect for your opinion and the way you carry yourself to let a discussion where you disagree with me get under my skin.

    “I’ll ask my question again, If Calipari goes to and Wall and Leslie wind up at Kentucky, will RC Johnson be blamed for losing them? Given your (and nearly everybody else’s) blaming LF for losing recruits on the vine, I think it is a fair question.”

    Ah, I understand now. You are correct, Fowler can’t be blamed for that.

    What I meant was the ones that had signed their LOIs and were coming here. I think Lee could have handled that better. As for the underclassmen that had yet to declare, obviously he can’t be blamed.

    I think that this was an example of poor communication on my part. Sorry for that.

  23. highstick 03/28/2009 at 8:47 PM #

    I think my worst fear is happening. “Us Lunatics” have turned on ourselves and started eating each others children!

    Maybe that’s a bad description, but we all seem to want the same thing, it’s the how, when, issues that we’re killing each other with!

    Like dying from “paper cuts” like someone else said!

  24. Greywolf 03/28/2009 at 10:03 PM #

    Alpha,
    Thanks. The respect is mutual.
    Great hockey game tonight! Canes came from behind in the 3rd period to win 6th in a row and end NJ’s 11 game home ice win streak, while moving into 4th place in the conference. This by a team whose fans were ready to run the coach out of town on a rail 2 short months ago. The horrible things that were written about Paul Maurice as a coach make us all look like Sidney Lowe’s hero worshippers.
    `
    With SL the proof of the pudding will be in the eating, not in the citing of last year’s short-comings or failures to be. I think our unwillingness to let the scene play out for one of our own, is what gets to me the worst. The insistance that he WILL fail by State fans fundamentally turns my stomach.
    `
    “the ones that had signed their LOIs and were coming here. I think Lee could have handled that better.”
    This thread is “How Long is Long Enough (to give Sid)? Opinions Are All Over The Place…” Is how LF handled the ones who had signed LOIs 3 years ago remotely related to “How Long is Long Enough?”
    `
    Alpha, have you ever been around someone who keeps bringing up the same old tired complaints about his wife and those complaints get nastier and nastier? I have and I find myself reacting rather weirdly — I begin to want to defend the wife for no apparent reason.

  25. Gene 03/29/2009 at 1:14 PM #

    The best think beyond firing Lee Fowler would be for the Board of Trustees to demand a Gene Corrigan-like outside consultant team to find a match and strongly lean on there candidates for the job. This program chased it’s tail for way too long following Valvano and is now chasing it’s tail again after the continuity Sendek provided. The next hire needs to be a fundamentals guy who is young, talented, hungry and is going to work harder than anyone else. He’s out there. He may not be a known name. We have to get over the ego- and go get him.

    We’re in basketball no-mans land. We’re a step up from a mid-major, but we aren’t “basketball royalty”. We could get a talented new coach, but this still begs the question as to how long do you give the new hire? Sendek was a very logical choice as far as hiring up and comers go. Sid’s a gamble, but again how long do you give him? What’s fair?

    And what potential great coaches are you missing out on by hanging on to the guy you have? If Les stepped down a year earlier and we followed the same process we did with Herb, we could’ve landed Billy Donovan. If Herb gave his resignation earlier, like Sampson did at OU, we could’ve grabbed Capel, who has already heading to OU, when Sendek announced his resignation and caught everybody at NCSU, including our AD, by surprise.

    We aren’t a final destination like UCLA, Indiana, Kentucky, Kansas and UNC. What’s the guarantee a good coach we hire won’t “trade up” for a school with better basketball tradition or a another opportunity to get a bigger paycheck?

    Norm Sloan quit because of the money and went to a lowly Florida program. Herb Sendek quit and went to ASU for a nice raise. Heck, even Maravich quit to coach his son at LSU, because Pete couldn’t get into NCSU.

    Even for a guys with strong ties to NCSU, like Sloan and Maravich, who had success in their tenures here – especially Sloan, who brought us back from irrelevance to field arguably the best squad in ACC history and definitely the best in NCSU history – chose to move on to finish their coaching carriers at different schools.

    We don’t have an answer to how long is long enough to evaluate a new hire. We don’t have a strategy to define what “success” is from the administration – at Kentucky and UNC it’s simple, be in the Final Four and contend for a national title on a regular, if not annual basis or be run out of town. I don’t think even as fans we have the same expectations as UNC and Kentucky.

    Tubby Smith’s Kentucky teams played for two national titles, winning one and losing one to Arizona. He didn’t keep it up and pissed off the fan base. Valvano won a National Title and a second ACC title and we revere his success, though NCSU never made it back to the Final Four and Tubby won more SEC titles in his 10 years at Kentucky than Valvano did in his 10 years at NCSU.

    Our problems as a basketball program are bigger than just the coach, but unfortunately the BoT, AD and others aren’t really interested in creating an identity for NCSU basketball, so it falls solely to the coach and we sink or swim, disproportionately in my opinion, with any coach we hire.

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