Giglio Previews 2009-10 ACC (Updated 3/25)

On the heels of this fantastic and comprehensive entry, we get more great work looking to next season from J.P. Giglio at the N&O’s ACCNow. I wouldn’t even know how to begin breaking down the rosters, but he does a great job projecting early departures and new player rotations. Kudos to him for going on record like this!

Where is the Pack? 9th:

9. N.C. State
1. Javi Gonzalez, 5-11, jr.
2. Lorenzo Brown, 6-4, fr.
3. C.J. Williams, 6-5, so.
4. Richard Howell, 6-7, fr.
5. Tracy Smith, 6-8, jr.

We’ve got a lot of versatile parts – note how I didn’t use ‘interchangable’ – for example, Julius Mays (6-2, so.) could start in the backcourt and Dennis Horner (6-8, sr.) could start for Williams.

Pre-summer thought: It is year 4 for Sidney Lowe and, for better or worse, it’s his roster with no more holdovers. Lorenzo Brown and Ricahrd Howell better be his Johnny Dawkins and Mark Alarie (the recruiting class that saved Coach K) or the forecast doesn’t look promising for a year five.

As we noted in the comments section of another entry – every team in the Atlantic Coast Conference has made at least one NCAA Tournament appearance in the last three seasons since Lowe was announced as coach.

Wednesday morning brought us more attention on the Wolfpack Basketball program as Ken Tysiac offered offseason improvement plans for the Wolfpack.

C Tracy Smith: A jump shot. If Smith can learn to score on 12- to 14-foot jumpers rather than just with his back to the basket, he will be much more effective in the post. He ought to particularly work on the same baseline shot McCauley developed last season.

F Dennis Horner: Nerves of steel. Horner was one of N.C. State’s best free throw shooters until the closing minutes of tight games. As a potential starter, he will be in position to shoot more key free throws next season.

G C.J. Williams: A pull-up jumper. Williams improved immensely as a catch-and-shoot scorer last season as a freshman. The next step will be to develop as a slasher, and a pull-up jump shot will help him do that.

F Johnny Thomas: A baseline game. Thomas, who’s N.C. State’s best athlete, has an opportunity to gain huge minutes next season and stands to benefit most from the departures of Costner and Ferguson. He isn’t much of a scorer, though, and could make a huge impact if he can score on baseline drives and jump shots.

G Javi Gonzalez, G Farnold Degand, G Julius Mays: Consistency. At their best, any one of these players is capable of being an ACC-caliber point guard. Problem is, not a single one of these guys stays at his best for any appreciable length of time. Coach Sidney Lowe would love for one of them to seize the reigns this summer.

G Lorenzo Brown, F Richard Howell, G Scott Wood, F Josh Davis: Maturity beyond their years. At least two of N.C. State’s freshmen are going to have to contribute immediately. Brown and Howell in particular need to be ready for vital roles if this team is to have any chance of reaching postseason play.

Coach Sidney Lowe: A new plan. Whatever success N.C. State had last season came as a result of Lowe’s introducing a big lineup with Smith, Costner and McCauley on the floor early in ACC play. The Wolfpack doesn’t have the bodies up front to play big anymore.

Update
Dave Telep of Scout.com was on 850 this morning and gave a good overview of recruiting for the Wolfpack, with his thoughts on John Wall, C.J. Leslie and Seth Curry. Well worth the time to listen.

3/25 Update
Here is State’s 2009-2010 BB schedule combined with Giglio’s predictions

09-10-bb-schedule

About BJD95

1995 NC State graduate, sufferer of Les and MOC during my entire student tenure. An equal-opportunity objective critic and analyst of Wolfpack sports.

09-10 Basketball Basketball Recruiting General Sidney Lowe

122 Responses to Giglio Previews 2009-10 ACC (Updated 3/25)

  1. Wolfpack_1995 03/25/2009 at 7:50 AM #

    NCAAT or bust IMO for Sid to get another year.

    The previous coach went to five straight NCAATs.

    Now we are to accept the current coach who potentially could have us miss the NCAAT four years in a row? Unacceptable.

    BTW the five straight NCAAT were not acceptable IMO either due to the fact that we only had one sweet 16 appearance.

    However everyone has their degree of success and I believe even Fowler would deem Sid unsuccessfull if State misses the NCAAT again next year.

  2. LRM 03/25/2009 at 8:02 AM #

    “Horner will need to work on boxing out, develop a post up move, and improve his quickness. He needs to play the 4 position and not the 3.”

    Horner has been playing basketball his entire life, and all we need is for him to become a completely new player before his Senior year? What a relief.

  3. JasonP 03/25/2009 at 8:11 AM #

    After the ACC’s awful showing in the NCAAT this season, it’s obvious this isn’t the great conference of old anymore…and next season’s ACC isn’t supposed to be getting any better. This means slots 3-12 are up for grabs by anyone with the desire to win.

    NCAAT or bust for Lowe. That means finishing in the top 5 of the conference next year b/c that’s looking like the max amount of ACC teams being invited.

  4. JasonP 03/25/2009 at 8:20 AM #

    Wanted to edit but couldn’t:

    Slots 3-5 up for grabs among anyone with the desire to win

  5. BJD95 03/25/2009 at 8:31 AM #

    I like the developing consensus of “NCAAT or bust.” We can all agree to disagree on how likely it is for us to meet this benchmark, but I’m glad that almost everyone seems to agree on what the benchmark should be.

    All of the original text in this entry (including the Barnes mention) was Giglio’s stuff, not mine.

  6. Greywolf 03/25/2009 at 8:38 AM #

    BSIE80
    March 24th, 2009 at 9:52 pm
    “Why not utilize this site to discuss improvements that Smith/Horner/etc. need to make to be better individual players…. Versus, we will suck, finish last, no excuses for Sid, so we need to fire him.”
    `
    There is some fair discussion occuring here, about coaches — both ours and others — and fair assessment of our talent. But that’s not what you are talking about is it?
    `
    Offering insight on what improvements are needed calls for knowledge of the game, while all it takes to say, “we will suck, finish last, no excuses for Sid, so we need to fire him.” is a big mouth and a small mind.
    `
    Saying these things over and over and over unfortunately serves to run off the readership that comes to SFN because it is a great place to read NCSU related sports discussions. I doubt new members come to SFN to read the members flog Sidney continuously for whatever reason. Maybe SFN no longer cares about the quality of the discussion here. We are quick to shut of HWSNBN conversation. Let’s shut off the “we will suck, finish last, no excuses for Sid, so we need to fire him” before the ultimate censorship happens.
    `
    I’m reminded of a cartoon I saw of a man with a whip flogging the oarsmen in the slave galley of a ship. The caption read, “The Floggings will continue until morale improves.”
    `
    I’m now going to repeat myself, Children (and athletes and coaches) need love (and support) the most when they deserve it the least. This is not an argument in favor of or approval of the job that Sid did or might do, this is an argument for as long as he is our coach and those no-talent, bottom-feeding athletes are wearing an NCSU uniforms, let’s cheer for them not against them. And if you are reading this and are so fucking dense as to think raining smart-assed shit down on them is cheering for them, please disregard these comments.

  7. Noah 03/25/2009 at 8:41 AM #

    Johnny Dawkins was a McDonald’s All American and I believe the national player of the year in high school as well as college.

    And was surrounded by other excellent young talent. And had one of the greatest coaches ever teaching him. And they still went 13-17 as frosh.

  8. anti-smurf 03/25/2009 at 8:50 AM #

    I think Horner got better during the season. Towards the end, he seemed to be crashing the boards a lot more. That’s good, we’re gonna need it.

    I have no idea where we’ll wind up. My guess is 9th is about a ceiling, and we’re one front line injury away from being 12th. If this happens, a change must be made. it does not take 4 years to totally turn around a basketball team. Look at Minnesota, look at (and don’t shoot me) Ariz. St. One player can make a huge difference. Unfortunately, Sid’s window is closing! Losing recruiting battles, losing committments, and losing games.

    I don’t expect NCAA next year, but clear goals must be set. Honestly, I think Fowler should go now, but he needs to go with Sid, and we need to bring in the consultant like we did for football, and get a deal done with a top name coach.

    At the very least, I think changes should be made to current staff. Not impressed with them at all.

    Now – Sid – prove me wrong! PLEASE! I am so ready to have a season where we are 20+ wins.

  9. packbackr04 03/25/2009 at 8:59 AM #

    Seth Curry has to sit out a year right? I hope Sid is on him, although he plays a position that we have a glutony of scholarships alloted for right now.

  10. Noah 03/25/2009 at 9:04 AM #

    When Lowe got here, he was chasing players like Hickson and Chris Wright. For a couple of years, we were fighting for the players that would change the program.

    Looking at the guys in the next class (’10), we’re not being mentioned for any of the top-50 guys. We’re trying to hang on to the commitments we do have and chasing guys that are in the 101-200 range.

    BJD talked about the death spiral. If the plane is going down and you look up at the cockpit and you see a guy who is cool, calm and collected, that’s a good sign. If you see a guy who is very quiet and working the controls and going through the steps and not breaking a sweat, this is a good thing.

    When you see a guy screaming, “Sweet Jesus! We’re all going to diiiiiiiieeee!” and doing shots of tequila, ripping his hair out and laughing maniacally…NOT a good sign.

    Likewise, when you are coming off several losing seasons in a row and you notice that you are no longer competing with the big boys on the recruiting trails, but you are praying that you get at least a visit from the guy who is favoring George Mason….this is also a bad sign.

  11. ms termeaner 03/25/2009 at 9:08 AM #

    Keep checking my mail for my scholarship offer? Who are giving out our baskeball scholarship’s now Ed McMahon?

  12. harrisek 03/25/2009 at 9:16 AM #

    I think 0-16 is a real possibility. How can they not fire Lowe for that? Facilities?

  13. wolfmans brother. 03/25/2009 at 9:45 AM #

    “Offering insight on what improvements are needed calls for knowledge of the game, while all it takes to say, “we will suck, finish last, no excuses for Sid, so we need to fire him.” is a big mouth and a small mind.”

    I don’t have intricate knowledge of the inner workings of the federal reserve, the ebb and flow of markets or wall street, but I do know enough to know that the economy is shit.

    Likewise, I may not be able to coach this basketball team, but I do have a pretty good idea about what the end product has been. I see no need to sugar coat it or pat everone on the back and say it’s all gonna be ok.

    Fact is I care whether or not we are good, and I think it’s ok to be angry that we are not.

  14. choppack1 03/25/2009 at 9:46 AM #

    “Seth Curry has to sit out a year right? I hope Sid is on him, although he plays a position that we have a glutony of scholarships alloted for right now.”

    Does he play the 1 or the 2?

    You know what’s sad – we really don’t have anyone in the program right now that is a true combo guard. The closest we have is Mays.

    I remember back in 01 – Herb gave a scholarship to Ilian Evtimov. I don’t think he was exactly a household name at the time, but he ended up contributing all 4 years, and started 3 of them – even w/ a blown out knee.

  15. Wolfpack_1995 03/25/2009 at 9:47 AM #

    Also, Maybe Wendell Murphy has already decided to forgo going to the ACCT next year also!

  16. pakfanistan 03/25/2009 at 9:48 AM #

    Is it possible to pick State 13th?

    Keep checking my mail for my scholarship offer? Who are giving out our baskeball scholarship’s now Ed McMahon?

    I think 0-16 is a real possibility. How can they not fire Lowe for that? Facilities?

    Nice job guys.

  17. tcthdi-tgsf-twhwtnc 03/25/2009 at 9:48 AM #

    I love the way some of you have finished State 9th for next year and already bashing Lowe for have such a terrible year. Nothing better to talk about or just enjoying to continue bashing Lowe?

    The season doesn’t look to be a great year but the ‘unacceptable’ 9th place finish next year hasn’t happened, yet.

  18. wolfpacker420 03/25/2009 at 9:53 AM #

    you can go ahead and say something like, “I want what you’re smoking.” but I think next year is our come out year. The rest of the ACC will be down compared to this year and we have a chance to finish in the top 6 of the league. The old style of players are now out of our system and we get to see what a team looks like when they hustle. Say what you will but Lowe’s recruits have played harder than any of the old guys. Go Pack! Finally back in the Dance next year! Write it down take a picture, I don’t give a F–K! You like that Friday reference!

  19. Noah 03/25/2009 at 9:54 AM #

    I love the way some of you have finished State 9th for next year and already bashing Lowe for have such a terrible year. Nothing better to talk about or just enjoying to continue bashing Lowe?

    Where do you think we’ll finish? And why?

  20. chuck 03/25/2009 at 10:07 AM #

    Reading these threads is like listening to the internal discussions among the Republicans these days: back-biting, mutual recrimination, opinion policing, casting out of apostates, etc. Maybe we should designate some people as Wolfpackers In Name Only; I’ve been called worse things than a wino.
    Anyway, for those of you who don’t already visit Section Six, there is an interesting breakdown of last year posted. It doesn’t say much for Sid’s ability to teach defense.

  21. Astral Rain 03/25/2009 at 10:19 AM #

    A lot of where the pack finishes will depend on how the team defends and scores.

    As for Seth Curry- why not take a flier, we’ve done worse lately. Just be sure to hire Dell as an assistant coach- yep, if you’re not going to play much defense, you might as well outscore the other guys Loyola-Maramount/VMI style.

  22. Thompson44 03/25/2009 at 10:19 AM #

    I have read every comment on this board so far and would like to say this.

    I am a Diehard Wolfpacker for the last 40 years, I remember going to Reynolds with my Father to watch the Greatest College Basketball Player of all time, my hero David Thompson and to see the problems our program has had over the last 20 years is just sad. What disappoints me the most is our fan base. We are all quick to judge and cast out a man with passion for the university. We all knew going in with Sid that he was going to have to learn on the job, that he was going to have to figure this thing out. Most first time College Coaches start out at little schools and they learn there Sid was thrown into the toughest conference of all. I want us to be good and I believe that we should be a top 4 program year in and year out. We will never get the recruits that Chapel Hell and Duke does, it is just not going to happen. But do you really think Bashing our Coach day in and day out is going to help. So you actually think that the University is going to get rid of Fowler? It has not happened yet so no need to think it will any time soon. Sid has my support, I do believe in him and want him to succeed and I will give him another 2 years that way his players are in and have matured a little. So support him for the next 2 years and then lets see what happens. Is that to much to ask?

  23. Gene 03/25/2009 at 10:24 AM #

    Where do you think we’ll finish? And why?

    Middle of the conference is possible. We were a few missed free throws at Va. Tech from being 7-9.

    Other than McCauley, I think we have replacements in place for the departing players, without counting the incoming freshman.

    Williams / Thomas can fill in for Fells. Williams filled in well for Fells towards the end of last year.

    Horner was outplaying Costner at the end of the season.

    Ferguson was a nice, hardworking player, but I think CJ Williams or Mays can fill in for him.

  24. choppack1 03/25/2009 at 10:33 AM #

    Gene – I really don’t like the play that game.

    A friend of mine would say of his golf round, “I shot a 75, but it should have been a 68.” Then proceed to tell me about the putts that lipped out and some of the bad breaks he got. The problem is, he just assumed that he was owed the break when he got that good kick in the fairway or that favorable lie in the rough, or when he hit the tree and bounced in play instead of OB.

    The fact is, we were just as close to 2-14 as we were to 8-8.

    I’d rather look at items that are more concrete. I can say w/out a doubt that this year we were more competitive than we have been in Lowe’s other two. We came into most games w/ a decent game plan and executed pretty good for the first 30 minutes in most of our games.

    We have a long way to go – and the sad fact is, we may never get their w/ Lowe. Still, I feel better about our future under him at the end of this year than I did at this time last year.

  25. ktoh 03/25/2009 at 10:36 AM #

    Break out year? Learning on the job? They Love NC State?He really wants to do well? Wait till he gets his own players?

    Next year it will be 4 years is not enough? Sid needs another year’s recruiting class to be judged and on and on and on Ground hogs day

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