Offseason Positional Analysis (PG)

As we wait for football to heat up, it’s as good a time as any to analyze the coming basketball season. Over the next few weeks, we will analyze the logical rotation and depth chart, based on position. First up is what should be the Pack’s second-weakest position – point guard.

State had lots of problems last year, any one of which could have destroyed the season. If problem 1(a) was team chemistry (and no, we’re not talking about JJ envy), then problem 1(b) was PG play. I remember attending the Red/White game last fall, and feeling very optimistic about the coming season. Ben, Fells, Grant, and BC were a bit rusty (I didn’t worry about that at the time – big mistake), but I was really impressed by JJ Hickson and Farnold Degand. Degand was a fireball, speeding past defenders, running the floor, and finishing in the lane. He also played defense, which almost brought on tears of joy.

In retrospect, the Red/White game said more about our other players’ poor offseason conditioning and complete inability to play perimeter defense or stop dribble penetration than anything else. But you know what? Farnold wasn’t half bad running the offense. He did push the ball, confidently bring it up court, and play solid defense. He gave good effort when other players seemed to quit (see Michigan State debacle), and showed flashes of being a plus offensive player (see narrow win against South Carolina, when Farnold saved our bacon). Then he blew out his knee against Cincinnati, and a complete horror show followed.

Marques Johnson was a deer in headlights on offense, but at least played marginal defense. Javi Gonzalez could bring the ball past half-court adequately, but had trouble getting the offense initiated. He was also smaller and slower than almost every opposing PG, which meant he didn’t usually score much, and was absolutely abused on defense. One notable exception – he whipped Greg Paulus’ ass. Too bad most ACC point guards aren’t that small and slow. Combined, MJ and Javi were as bad (if not worse) than the “avert your eyes” combo of Fells and Grant, when Atsur was hurt the previous year.

Who should start? Farnold Degand, obviously. Some folks have suggested a “quick” lineup with Javi at PG, and Degand at SG (with Degand bringing the ball up on offense). To me, this seems absolutely insane. Sure, Degand shot a great percentage from 3 last year, but let me introduce you to the concept of sample size. Most of Degand’s shots were also of the wide open variety, given that scouting reports pegged him as a speedy penetrator who couldn’t shoot. Plus, I would rather have one very weak position (SG) than spread it out and being weak at both the 1 and the 2. Leave Degand at the point, and maybe we’ll get adequate production.

What should the rotation be? This is the million dollar question. Ideally, we would get 30-35 mpg from Farnold. Coming back off ACL surgery, that would risk burning him out. We would be completely sunk without a 90-100% Farnold for ACC play. Perhaps Javi (and to a lesser extent, freshman Julius Mays) can hold up against lesser competition enough to limit Farnold to a maximum of 25 mpg until January. I doubt Julius Mays will be strong enough with the ball (or fast enough defensively) to log minutes at the point against decent foes, absent injury or foul trouble. We have to find another position for MJ – he’s simply not a PG in any way, shape, or form.

Position Grade: C-

About BJD95

1995 NC State graduate, sufferer of Les and MOC during my entire student tenure. An equal-opportunity objective critic and analyst of Wolfpack sports.

08-09 Basketball

90 Responses to Offseason Positional Analysis (PG)

  1. Afterglow 07/12/2008 at 4:50 PM #

    Part 2.
    V was a visionary, he dreamed it, he would write it down on note cards and make sure everyone else was on the same page as he when it came to the big picture. Will we ever see another V? Sadly, probably not. Are there elements that other good or excellent coaches in the league have that Lowe could bring to the table to get us back to where we were fifteen, twenty years ago? Yes. There is something to be said for taking responsibility and some of the blame lands on the players shoulders, but ultimately, I place more of the blame on the coaches shoulders.

    I will lend a quick example. I work as a Youth Treatment Counselor and our cliental is emotionally disturbed children. Take your worst class clown, multiply that by five and then place ten of those in a classroom together. Ultimately you would think that spells disaster but the funny things is-if you run a classroom that provides: a safe environment, with accountability, structure and a staff that looks at the meaning behind the behavior and not the behavior, then by enlarge, the classroom runs fairly smooth. Guess who we look to if the whole classroom is dysfunctional? The staff. And nine times out of ten, the reason for our dysfunction lay solely on the staffs shoulders. It’s a parallel process that mirrors a dysfunctional home. Why is the kid struggling so much at home? In our population-it’s because of the parents.

    Ultimately, does it come down to the coaching? In my belief, yes.

  2. redfred2 07/12/2008 at 5:03 PM #

    “I don’t know if it’s because I wrote too much or what.”

    If that was a factor in WordPress’s criteria I would have been booted totally off the site, long ago.

    Great points you’re making, and I agree that V had a special way of bringing “it” out in the kids that he recruited and coached. I had HOPED that Lowe could tap into least part of what V had going back then, but maybe not. Either way, this season will tell us a lot about what to expect from Sidney Lowe in the future. Or if there is going to be a future.

    I guess what I was saying is that I’m over the hill, but I still cannot just stay still and watch a rebound come off the backboard without at least TRYING to get position, regardless of whether there is someone twenty years younger and 7″ taller already standing there or not.

    There is no doubt that a proper physical fitness regime was lacking last season, and also admitting that the coaching was lacking in more areas than should have been expected, still, as individuals, and SUPPOSED BASKETBALL PLAYERS, how could anyONE of them allow their opposing players to take control without putting up more resistance?

  3. Afterglow 07/12/2008 at 5:43 PM #

    This is very strange. I keep trying to post and it won’t take it.

  4. Clarksa 07/12/2008 at 6:30 PM #

    “Look back at the last 10 or so games last season. Opposing guards REPEATEDLY had career games against us – especially when guarded by Javi.”

    10 games? How about the last 12 YEARS….

  5. AfterglowXP 07/12/2008 at 6:47 PM #

    So, I changed my name over to AfterglowXP just to see if that would work and I still can’t see any of my posts. What in Sam’s hill is going on! Is anyone else having this problem?

  6. Afterglow 07/12/2008 at 7:09 PM #

    We definitely seem to be snake bitten in the point guard arena.

  7. AfterglowXP 07/12/2008 at 7:15 PM #

    “Precious, precious, precious!” Gollum cried. “My Precious! O my Precious!”

  8. redfred2 07/12/2008 at 9:34 PM #

    Afterglow/AfterglowXP,AGXP, whatever alias you’re currently going by, I don’t know about you, but I’ve kinda taken a liking to a debate where the other person can’t respond.

    Now, if I could somehow accomplish something similar with my wife.

  9. Afterglow 07/12/2008 at 9:48 PM #

    Redfred2-SUPPOSED BASKETBALL PLAYERS. That’s where I loose sight of it being the fault of the basketball players, I guess. To think that all five on the court lack the inspiration to box out for a rebound or just a have a lack of desire and heart, tells me that it’s the coaching.

    I’ll go back to my classroom example which got taken out of context because WordPress didn’t post all of my thoughts.

    Do you think a classroom of class clowns could find educational value in that atmosphere? I work as a Youth Treatment Counselor with emotionally disturbed children. Basically, take your typical class clown that really doesn’t want to learn and multiply that behavior by five. Now take ten of those and put them in the same room-that’s what I work with and guess what, chaos does NOT prevail. With a safe environment, structure, accountability and staff that look at the meaning behind the behavior and not the behavior itself-things run pretty smooth and education happens. But when it’s dysfunctional, nine times out of ten, the responsibility lies solely on the shoulders of the staff. Just like a troubled kid who comes from a dysfunctional family; the kid wasn’t born bad, he/she simply had the poor luck of landing in a crummy household. If things change in the household, things could very well change for the kid. These extreme situations (ten emotionally disturbed children) are tamed by a good system.

    The same can be said for the coaches. I find it hard to believe that all of the players that were recruited (by chance) just so happen to all have a lack of desire, heart and ablity. At one point in there lives previous to coming to State, they were highly regarded in their game. Something happened.

    Lowe needs to have vision, he needs to talk it, heck write it on note cards if necessary, make sure everyone on the team (assistants included) are on the same page with the same vision.

    Ultimately, does it come down to the coaching? It’s my belief that yes, it does.

  10. AfterglowXP 07/12/2008 at 9:59 PM #

    redfred2-it’s been a challenging day. I don’t know why I have had so many problems under my Afterglow name but none of what I wanted to post would. It was like WordPress just simply objected to the things I would say that held any content. It could be coaching;) In any regard, I think I will revert back to the old Afterglow (Gollum) and maybe pull out AfterglowXP as an alter ego.

  11. redfred2 07/12/2008 at 10:15 PM #

    So WordPress is working again huh? Damnit, I thought I could declare a win by way of a TKO on this topic.

    But seriously, I did not say that the ENTIRE team, or entire “classroom”, to use your analogy, didn’t try last season. I’m saying that only the ones who had significant PT during just ONE SEASON, and those who had achieved a modest amount of success during that first season under new Head Coach Sidney Lowe, those were the players that didn’t show up. The rest, those of whom weren’t expecting a RED carpet simply because they were on a team that surprised some people late in the year before and actually ended up making the postseason because of it, those other kids that might not have been very effective for various reasons, but they were coached by Sidney Lowe also, and THEY did try.

    Please, explain that one to me.

  12. Afterglow 07/12/2008 at 11:10 PM #

    I suppose those who tried still were lacking in fundamentals and those who didn’t, seemed to lack the motivation to employ those fundamentals. The ones who lacked the motivation (who were instrumental 06’-07’s late surge) didn’t bring the leadership needed to guide the team. There were times (more than I’d like to admit) last year where, I would watch and just think to myself that this team is out of sorts. It felt like they were going in all different directions.

    It was (somewhat by new addition) a different team. Things changed, new dynamics came into play. Hickson was the Alpha Dog pushing aside Brandon Costner from his perch. I think partially this got into BC’s head who was still too busy resting on his laurels. McCaully seemed to lack the heart that he had the previous year. Grant was just a disappointment; he didn’t step up the way I think he should have-with Courtney Fells kind of falling into that same vein. I think we agree that these were the ones who didn’t show up.

    But there in lies the problem; it’s not a function of trying or not trying; pieces and parts of this team would try at times and not try at times ineffectively pushing and pulling against each other. Even those who tried more often than not lacked the correct execution. It’s a function of mentally preparing a team for shifts in dynamics and roles, executing sound fundamentals and empowering your veterans step up in leadership roles-that’s what I’m talking about.

  13. E-RO 07/12/2008 at 11:23 PM #

    My guess as to what will happen:

    Starters: 144 MPG, 59 PPG
    1 – Farnold Degand (1)- 25 MPG, 7 PPG 5 APG
    2 – Trevor Ferguson (2)- 25 MPG, 8 PPG 2 APG
    3 – Courtney Fells (2/mostly3)- 34 MPG, 16 PPG 4 RPG
    4 – Brandon Costner (4/maybe sometimes 3)- 30 MPG, 16 PPG 8 RPG
    5 – Ben McCauley (5) – 30 MPG, 12 PPG 10 RPG

    Bench: 56 MPG, 18 PPG (Numbers don’t add up to that, but I’m guessing a few DNPs from some of these guys)
    Tracy Smith (4) – 17 MPG, 6 PPG 5 RPG
    Dennis Horner (3/4) – 14 MPG, 5 PPG 3 RPG
    Javi Gonzalez (1) – 11 MPG, 3 PPG 2 APG
    Julius Mays (1/2) – 8 MPG, 4 PPG 2 APG
    CJ Williams (2/3) – 3 MPG, 2 PPG
    Simon Harris (3/4) – 1 MPG, <1 PPG 1 RPG
    Marques Johnson (2/3) – 2 MPG, <1 PPG
    Johnny Thomas (2/3) – DNP

    77 PPG, somewhere around 6-8 wins. 9 man core.

  14. Trip 07/12/2008 at 11:50 PM #

    Honestly I see Harris getting more minutes than Horner next year if Horner plays as well as he did this year.

  15. Afterglow 07/12/2008 at 11:51 PM #

    It will be interesting how those stats pan out. I will keep my cautious optimisms to mere whispers for fear of awakening the spirits in the wood of my house and furniture like they were after last years raised expectations. Now, if you’ll excuse me I need to go find my lucky gym sock for next year’s season.

  16. hball57 07/13/2008 at 12:51 AM #

    I’m going to try to keep on the PG theme.

    Someone questioned what I see in Javi that reminds me of Sidney. I think he is the same style of PG. No I don’t remember anything about Sidney’s freshman year. And I don’t think we could compare Javi with the Sidney Lowe we all remember, the Sidney Lowe of ’83. I just think that Javi could, with added strength, be the type of PG that Sidney was.

    Here’s what I don’t understand about some of the posters. They act like players will not improve over the next year. One thing about college BB is that every team has someone who didn’t make a contribution the year before that upgrades his game the next year. Some also want to judge a player by their worst games instead of their best (i.e. Brandon Costner). And for some the player will be decided by their HS ranking.

    Farnold Degand came out of nowhere. He was never on the fans radar, and I think that some will always hold that against him. Is he not an ACC caliber PG based on what you saw, or based on his HS ranking? Which is the “real” Javi Gongalez? The one against UNC or the one against Duke? I believe that our PGs will be solid this year. And i base that one what I’ve seen, being sure that they will improve over the summer.

  17. Rochester 07/13/2008 at 9:37 AM #

    ^Yeah, raise your hand if you projected Todd Fuller as an NBA guy at any point during his freshman year. He worked and improved every year. Ben McCauley as a sophomore was night and day better than as a freshman (when he mostly rode the bench). I hope he gets back to that this year, and think he will, actually.

    So I think it’s hard to seriously project Javi’s game this year. Traditionally it seems to me like a player’s most dramatic improvement will come as a sophomore. Now they know what to expect. They’ve had an offseason to make adjustments and learn from their mistakes. No, Javi can’t grow four inches and become speedy, but with experience some of his vulnerabilities will be mitigated. He’ll never be the best point guard in the ACC, but I think in time he’ll rise to middle of the pack.

  18. inhoc... 07/13/2008 at 10:55 AM #

    honestly i`m not even looking foward to, or even have any good feelings about next season. i think the pause butten has just been pushed in the middle of the downward spiral the program was in all of last season…it will continue as soon as the next season begins.

  19. Afterglow 07/13/2008 at 1:57 PM #

    It stands to be seen hball57. You never know. I’m the one who said that Javi is no Lowe. But you’re right! You can never tell what motivates someone or what causes someone to turn the corner or come out of nowhere.

    I’ll give the example of Tom Gugliotta. He would not have been given a scholly if it weren’t for his dad who knew Jim Valvano. This guy came in as a freshman at 6’2″. He was primarily a shooting guard with some decent ball handling and passing ability. Obviously, he wasn’t good enough to play point or even start as a shooting guard. He grew-all while keeping his decent ball handling and passing ability-to 6’10”! People started seeing glimpses of his abilities his sophomore year but it wasn’t really until his Junior/Senior year that he really started turning heads.

    I’ll welcome any anomalies for the year. I just don’t think at this point, given what I have seen that Javi is like Lowe. Sidney Lowe ranks third in assist with 762 of them; he had one game against Western Carolina in 82 where he had 18. He had 220 steals for his career. I don’t know what he did his freshman year either but I’m guessing with stats like that that he had a pretty decent showing. Could Javi evolve into that-we all hope so.

    I’m not bashing Javi and I would be pleasantly surprised if he proved me wrong. All I’m saying is (putting all anomalies aside) I doubt that either Javi or Degand will turn many heads, but I will be pleased if proven wrong. But hey, if you can’t dream, you’re dead, right?

  20. hball57 07/13/2008 at 4:18 PM #

    Please don’t think that I’m bashing anyone for their opinions. I just wanted to raise a point that I think a lot of people miss. For example, Caulton Tudor did a preseason look at the ACC. Whn he got to NC State, his starting line up includes Julius Mays. Now I don’t know what Mays will bring to the table, but Tudor has so little respect for Trevor Ferguson, who showed me that he could play in this league at the end of last year, that he put a low ranked incoming freshman who I will contend he has never seen in our starting line up.

    In reading some fan’s comments, I wonder if they are not unduly influenced by a player’s rating with some ranking service.

  21. Afterglow 07/13/2008 at 4:42 PM #

    Opinions are good and those who are bold enough to express them are what make a blog like this interesting, insightful and fun. As far as I’m concerned, onpinionate away!

    As for Caulton Tudor, it’s his job to have an opinion about everything ACC so I doubt he is as invested in Wolfpack sports as you or I.

  22. Afterglow 07/13/2008 at 5:27 PM #

    I would say that my influence is based the aggregate of: rankings, past/present playing, what experts say and that which I feel. There’s not much else to base it on. Everyone has they’re own opinion on things.

    You could have three different guys standing on a street corner looking out to traffic and each guy is going to have a different perspective: one may see nothing more than traffic, the other may be threatened by the whole thought of heavy vehicles trundling by at high speeds, while the last guy may see a sea of excitement and adventure. It’s speculative at this point. Output will be our only true answer when it comes right down to it.

  23. howlie 07/13/2008 at 5:53 PM #

    Nice discussion with lots of opposing viewpoints, well presented. Unfortunately, the precision of the arguments reminded me of some things I had hoped to forget.

    Our guard play in the coming season’s ‘early OOC play’ will be, “a conundrum wrapped up in an enigma.” By league play I hope least ONE of the guards (Javi, Farnold, Mays, Fergie) emerges to give us healthy, CONSISTENT play across the season. Just one of the four will make all the difference–and the other slot can be filled by a rotation of those willing to hustle with all determination.

    Unfortunately, it’s the same situation in football as we search for a QB–needing one who WON’T make freshman mistakes from the beginning. Someone to (1) keep down the mistakes; (2)get the ball in the hands of OTHERS who can carry the offensive load; and, (3) just contribute what they can without trying to do too much, too soon.

    Back to basketball–I don’t think any of the four guards [mentioned] have shown the ‘high-water mark’ of their abilities [& Mays, of course, isn’t here yet]. All the guards are ‘program kids’ who will improve across their careers. We just need ONE of them to ‘get ahead of the curve’ for this year.

    (Bring on the BIG MEN discussion…)

  24. Afterglow 07/13/2008 at 6:14 PM #

    I have a feeling that Brandon Costner is going to come back hungry. I also have good feelings about McCauley. I can’t say for sure what happened last year but perhaps it was a good serving of humble pie which will bring them back to reality.

    I also like what I have heard from Coach Lowe. I got the impression from him in the first year that he was too much of a friend to the players (kind of like Amato in football). This may have been one of those transitional things going from the NBA to College. I think in year two, he didn’t know how to manage the new dynamic of the team and do to the “I’ll be your pal” trend he set in year one things started to slip out of his control.

    I hope in year three we will see the fundamental and disciplinarian smack be put down much the same way O’Brien has with football<<<I don’t know, perhaps Lowe got some counsel from someone other than Jed.

    Regardless, it will be interesting to see how both BC and McCauley greet the new slate. Also, don’t forget about Smith-things could get interesting with him. We all saw glimpses last year. I think with some wiggle room and a year under his belt, he may turn out to be a key contributor as a sixth man.

  25. sf59 07/13/2008 at 6:31 PM #

    i agree with the assesment of javi being samll and slow… however not only was he coming off the hand injury… he had a significant leg injury all season that really slowed him down…

    but yeah that kid from GT still ate him up…

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