GT Helps the Pack

Congratulations to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets!

Tech’s win over Carolina last night in Atlanta made a big statement for the ACC’s push to get more than six teams into the NCAA Tournament. If the NCAA Tournament would have started before last night, Georgia Tech would not have made the field. But, their win last night serves to at least place the Yellow Jackets squarely on the bubble (with games to be played).

In yesterday’s great conversation on SFN you will find a lot of great commentary and analysis from our community. In short, it is clearly beneficial to NC State’s hopes for an NIT bid for Georgia Tech (and Clemson and Florida State) to perform well and make a push into the NCAA Tournament.

With the ACC Tournament still to play (click here for a mathematical analysis of the NCAA Tournament), who knows what might happen.

A few ACC items of note:

* The sub-story to Ty Lawson’s benching was that he “had a bad practice”. Riiiiiiight. God I hope that this guy jumps to the NBA this year. Last night’s performance helps to further underscore his importance to the Tarheels.

* Fantastic ACC Notes that shouldn’t be ignored.

* 850 TheBuzz this morning.

* N&O’s audio of Talking with Tudor.

* Does this mean that the ACC office has rid itself of the “great facilitator”, Fred Barakat?

* It was great to see Ben McCauley play well against Wake on Wednesday night after struggling for a couple of games. Despite the great year that McCauley has put together, he has generally struggled when being guarded by longer, athletic players like Brandon Wright at Carolina. McCauley may be the primary beneficiary of JJ Hickson’s presence in Raleigh next season as it will allow Big Ben to move to his natural power forward position where he will consistently have more advantageous physical match-ups in the post.

* From Dave Glenn’s notes that we previously linked:

With two consecutive horrible seasons in conference play, Wake Forest coach Skip Prosser is nearing some dangerous territory. Consider this: Since 1975, ACC basketball programs have had streaks of three or more seasons when they lost more than 60 percent of their conference games only 13 times. In 12 of those situations, the coach who started the streak was fired without ending it.

The lone exception was Maryland coach Gary Williams, and his truly was a unique case. His three straight horrible ACC seasons (1991-93) came in the aftermath of the disastrous Bob Wade era (1987-89) in College Park. Williams ultimately righted the ship, going to 11 straight NCAA Tournaments (1994-2004) and winning the national championship in 2002.

With a 3-13 ACC record last year and a 4-10 mark so far this season, Prosser now has two straight seasons that surpass the 60-percent losing mark. Looking ahead, he’ll enter 2007-08 without his most productive player from this year (senior center Kyle Visser), and with a possible starting lineup of five sophomores. A third straight bad season would put Prosser in the midst of some very undesirable company.

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06-07 Basketball General

94 Responses to GT Helps the Pack

  1. TNCSU 03/02/2007 at 9:01 AM #

    ^^^In short, it is clearly beneficial to NC State’s hopes for an NIT bid for Georgia Tech (and Clemson and Florida State) to perform well and make a push into the NCAA Tournament.

    Other than the fact the we will have to beat one of those teams in the ACC Tournament for us to go to the NIT, wouldn’t you think??? Most likely, it looks like we’ll be playing GT 1st round in the tourney.

  2. choppack1 03/02/2007 at 9:06 AM #

    I think GaTech is in now. I think FSU and Clemson don’t get in. I’m shocked if we don’t get an NIT bid.

  3. highonlowe 03/02/2007 at 9:09 AM #

    Like I mentioned yesterday – An NC State WIN against GT on Thursday in the ACCT could theoretically remove GT from NCAA consideration, they’d get an NIT bid (along with FSU and Clemson), which bumps us out of the NIT. I’d say even if we beat Maryland tomorrow, this scenario could still apply.

    We need the Jackets to beat BC in their last game to further support their NCAAT bid. They go to the NIT, we don’t.

  4. Rochester 03/02/2007 at 9:11 AM #

    Wake’s facing a double-whammy on the recruiting front. Not only are the Prosser rumors going to be flying after two crappy seasons, but he’s got such a young roster anyone coming in is going to be facing a serious logjam for playing time.

    Some of their freshmen did look pretty good this year, specifically Skeens (rebounding machine against us) and Ish Smith, who could be a nice player when he learns to play under control. At this point, I wouldn’t ink them for last place next year, especially with some of the talent Virginia and Va. Tech will lose after this season, but I like our odds a lot better than theirs.

  5. highonlowe 03/02/2007 at 9:12 AM #

    That’s the 3rd time in a couple days, I swear I’m closing my tags….

  6. one00_proof 03/02/2007 at 9:14 AM #

    Ga Tech imo isn’t in just yet. Like the sportscasters said, they’ve put theselves in the driver’s seat with a relatively doable schedule left. They basically have to win against BC and then get at least 2 wins in the ACC tourney to get out of that bubble status. Clemson and FSU have almost no shot because both will have to win the ACC tournament outright to have a chance.

    To put it in perspective, they basically have a SLIGHTLY better than chance than we do in making the NCAAs 🙂

    But yeah, I’m definitely excited about Hickson coming in next year because we will probably have the nastiest big men combination in the ACC. It’ll be interesting to see what our starting line up is next year…

  7. smfrank 03/02/2007 at 9:28 AM #

    And not to loose focus on what else the GaTech win means – it means that UNC is a lot less likely to win the ACC regular season. I hate UNC and it was enjoyable to watch them suffer last night.

  8. RickJ 03/02/2007 at 9:28 AM #

    I think Ga. Tech is in if they beat Boston College at home even with a first round loss in the ACC tournament. There resume would be an RPI in low 40’s, an 8 – 8 ACC regular season, a major out-of-conference win over Memphis, a 20 win season and a 7 – 3 record in their last 10 games.

  9. BoKnowsNCS71 03/02/2007 at 9:29 AM #

    The wheels are off the bus at UNX. How a team with so much talent can play so poorly is amazing to me. Maybe Roy is taking too much time off from coaching?

  10. BJD95 03/02/2007 at 9:29 AM #

    Here’s what you should want as a Pack fan (IMHO):

    1) FSU beats Miami on Saturday.

    Fallout: NC State locks up 10 seed. More importantly, FSU is back on NCAAT bubble, possibly getting in with win against Clemson on ACCT Thursday. 8 ACC teams in the Big Dance (IMHO, GT is in after last night’s win) would make it easier for 10 to make post-season overall. I truly don’t think the NCAAT selection committee looks at bids per conference, but the NIT folks just might.

    2) Virginia beats Wake on Saturday, VT beats Clemson on Sunday.

    Fallout: I am 99% sure this locks UNC in as no better than a 3 seed, and 90% certain this locks VT in at #2. Assuming we win the 7/10 game, we will face the #2 seed on Friday. Naturally, I would much rather face a team we beat twice (and who has admitted that we might be in their heads) than teams we match up with much more poorly. We definitely don’t want to face a completely rested UNC squad when we played the night before. UNC at 3 and Duke at 6 would ensure that any ACCT meeting they have will be on Friday, which will save us much hype-related nausea (and that one of them MUST lose before the semis).

    3) GT beats BC on Saturday.

    Fallout: This 100% would cement GT’s bid, and keep BC from forcing any potential squirrelly (sp?) tiebreakers that could land UNC the #2 seed. If 1 and 2 don’t happen, the calculus may change somewhat – BC is my #2 choice for State’s potential ACCT Friday matchup, due to their limited depth.

    4) NC State beats Maryland on Sunday.

    Fallout: NIT bid becomes a lead-pipe lock. This is extraordinarily unlikely, as MD will press and is playing better than anyone else in the league (maybe the country?) right now.

    5) UNC beats Duke on Sunday.

    Fallout: Coach K finishes with a .500 record in conference play. I’m sure that breaks some kind of streak. Also potentially drops them to 7 seed, and I think we might match up better with them than GT (due to Crittenden and depth issues).

  11. ncsu96 03/02/2007 at 9:30 AM #

    One ironic aspect of the whole NCAA/NIT situation could be our 1st round game of the ACC tourney. We will likely play GT or FSU. If we win could knock our opponent out of NCAA tourney and into the NIT and then hurt our chances of NIT bid. If we lose any our oppenent makes it to Sat or Sun and gets NCAA bid, we could help our NIT chances.

    Of course we always pull for the Pack to win, but it would really suck if we GT knock them out NCAA and thus knock ourselves out of the NIT.

  12. Trout 03/02/2007 at 9:31 AM #

    I think GT is in, unless they lose to both BC and NC State in the ACCT (I’m assuming we will play them Thur night).

    The ACC will get 7 teams into the NCAAT – UVA, VT, UNC, Duke, MD, BC and GT. FSU and Clemson need to make it to the ACCT Finals to get into the NCAAT, IMO, while NC State, Miami and Wake must win it to get in.

  13. BJD95 03/02/2007 at 9:37 AM #

    GT is 18th in Sagarin, with a 3-5 record against the Top 25, and an 8-8 record against the Top 50. Leaving them out would be borderline criminal. They CERTAINLY don’t need anything more than a win this weekend OR in the ACCT on Thursday.

  14. Texpack 03/02/2007 at 9:39 AM #

    Seven teams from the ACC get to the Big Dance. GT has inside track for the seventh spot. State really needs one more win to feel good about a possible NIT berth.

  15. Jamie 03/02/2007 at 9:40 AM #

    Okay, I’ve got it. Let’s just win out. Automatic bid, ’83 Cinderella run, Lowe running all over the floor just lookin’ for someone to hug. Problem solved.

  16. Tau837 03/02/2007 at 9:48 AM #

    Trout: why would you think FSU needs to make the ACC tournament finals? They have wins over Duke and Florida, and wins over Miami and Clemson in the ACC tournament first round would give them 20 wins and 8 ACC wins. Their RPI was in the mid 40s last time I looked, with a SOS around 14 (again, last time I looked).

    I think they would be deserving in this scenario, but perhaps could still be frozen out due to the sentiment that 8 teams shouldn’t make it from the ACC. Their second round matchup would probably be against the 1 seed, presumably UVA. If they won that, I’d think 21 wins and 9 ACC wins would be enough, as opposed to needing to win again to reach the finals.

  17. highonlowe 03/02/2007 at 10:02 AM #

    I thought the ACCT probabilities were a little skewed on DaveSez (UNC at 51%?), so I analyzed the updated seedings myself. (Note that the log5 principle only has one input, W/L’s in the season. SOS is not an input. Also, the tourney is on a neutral court so home court advantage is not factored in. IMO, it can be effective in analyzing past performance, but as a forecasting tool, not so much).

    2007 ACCT Probabilities

  18. RickJ 03/02/2007 at 10:06 AM #

    I agree with Tau837 regarding FSU.

    They have another X factor that hasn’t been widely discuss. There starting point guard and second leading scorer, Tony Douglass has missed their last 5 games (4 of them losses) due to injury. He is due back for the ACC tournament. If they can beat Miami this weekend and win their first round game in the ACC tournament, they are getting very close to a bid. One more in the tournament would give them a very strong case.

    As some of you know, FSU is the only ACC team to ever make the field with a 6 – 10 regular season league record. Their AD, Dave Hart was praised and criticized for the campaign he openly waged to have them included that year. If FSU can win a couple down the stretch, look for him to make the “Douglass” argument.

  19. TNCSU 03/02/2007 at 10:08 AM #

    ^^If we lose any our oppenent makes it to Sat or Sun and gets NCAA bid, we could help our NIT chances.

    Of course we always pull for the Pack to win, but it would really suck if we GT knock them out NCAA and thus knock ourselves out of the NIT.

    Anytime you thinking LOSING helps you, I DISAGREE. You play to win EVERY game — let the committees pick who goes. Anyway, the ACC is as strong (top to bottom) as it’s been in a long while. I think the only ones saying we can’t get more than 7 in are the media folks who will think there might be an ACC bias. That’s why it’s important to have those OOC wins — Ga. Tech beat Memphis, FSU over Florida, etc. I think Clemson is now a long shot (for the 9th spot), plus they have very few OOC “good” wins. We still have 8 teams in the Top 45 or so in the RPI — All with good wins.

    Personally, I think we need to concentrate on doing well in the tourney, and let the chips fall where they may, but thinking that an NIT berth is more likely with a first round ACC loss is NOT what I would be thinking!

  20. TNCSU 03/02/2007 at 10:13 AM #

    ^^^As some of you know, FSU is the only ACC team to ever make the field with a 6 – 10 regular season league record.

    They also DIDN’T make the tournament last year with a 9-7 record, right??? That, I would think, would help them — the tournament wouldn’t want them to be the first team “out” two years in a row — esp. with a possible POY (Thorton) on their team — just IMO.

  21. packpigskinfan23 03/02/2007 at 10:29 AM #

    Dont forget guys… the women play their first round of the ACCT in less then an hour! FSN should have the game

  22. highonlowe 03/02/2007 at 10:30 AM #

    Something else we haven’t considered is the possible effect of George Mason’s Final Four run last year. The NCAA committee could see it as evidence to invite more mid-majors this year.

  23. choppack1 03/02/2007 at 11:08 AM #

    I”m trying to remember the last time an eligible school from the ACC didn’t get an NIT bid…And I think GaTech is in unless they lose their last 2 games – then I think they are on the bubble.

  24. VaWolf82 03/02/2007 at 11:50 AM #

    They [GT] basically have to win against BC and then get at least 2 wins in the ACC tourney to get out of that bubble status.

    GT’s position is not quite this bad. The have a good SOS and some good wins…like beating Memphis on a neutral court. They are playing in the highest rated conference in the nation. Here’s my guess for GT based on recent ACC history:

    8-8 with one win in the ACCT -> NCAAT
    7-9 with 2 wins in the ACCT -> NCAAT
    7-9 with 0 wins in ACCT -> NIT

    8-8 win 0 win in ACCT -> ?????
    7-9 win 1 win in ACCT -> ?????


  1. University Update - 03/02/2007

    GT Helps the Pack

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