SFN’s Take: TOB > PJ

SFN has been hearing from a variety of sources that Boston College head man Tom O’Brien has emerged as a serious contender for the NC State job. As you may know, O’Brien has taken some heat from the Eagle faithful for not being able to get BC over the proverbial hump. While we agree that O’Brien may have maxed out what he is able to accomplish in Beantown, we do not believe that his ceiling would necessarily be limited at NC State.

O’Brien is supposedly willing to make a move because Boston is a pro sports town, almost exclusively. BC also has a small alumni base, which has led to good Eagle teams getting subpar bowl bids. The argument is that better bowls would lead to more recruiting momentum, as would a thriving, college-town environment – and ultimately, a chance at more success at NC State.

Of course, you might note that you could say the same thing about Paul Johnson. There is some truth to that. However, we believe that Tom O’Brien has some clear advantages over PJ – (i) BCS conference experience; (ii) has recruited at least some premium athletes; (iii) less potential to be negatively recruited against successfully; and (iv) a stronger staff (with pretty remarkable continuity).

O’Brien is no spring chicken, but young enough (58) to have a good ten year run at NC State. Plus, we already know his likely “floor” – 7-9 win seasons, which would at least get NC State into good bowl games periodically. We also think that it is reasonable to hope for greater success (contention for ACC titles) with a fresh start and a different environment to work in. Is it guaranteed? No. But nobody is going to be a sure thing here. SFN thinks that O’Brien would be a very good choice.

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General NCS Football Tom O'Brien

336 Responses to SFN’s Take: TOB > PJ

  1. CarnifeX 12/06/2006 at 11:57 AM #

    I thought there was the “Gentleman’s Agreement” in place in the ACC. Did that go out the window once we let Miami into the conference?

  2. Mr O 12/06/2006 at 12:03 PM #

    TOB recruited at UVa and Navy prior to his stint at BC.

    So we are comparing TOB to Herb Sendek? Based on what?

    TOB has BCS experience in two conferences. He has always coached at schools with much, much more difficult admission policies than NC State(Navy, UVa, and BC) yet he has always been successful at a high level. He graduates players at as a high a rate as any coach in the country.

    TOB’s staff has BCS experience in two conferences. PJ’s staff has zero BCS experience.

    TOB’s program is severely hurt by its proximity to bowl games, lack of facilities, academic standards, and lack of fan support. Additionally, his program is hurt by being in a pro sports market.

    Yet despite all of these disadvantages, he is one of the top coaches in the ACC.

    How does Herb Sendek’s tenure at NC State even come close to TOB? The analogy makes very little sense.

  3. StateFans 12/06/2006 at 12:05 PM #

    I think the “Gentlemens’ Agreement” may be pure urban legend.

    Two key differences from the Sendek analogy:

    1) BC football arguably has institutional limitations that NC State (and certainly not NC State basketball) do not;

    2) Any ceiling at BC is not inherent in the system being run (unlike the PO).

    There are also some SFN bloggers (BJD included) that think Herb Sendek MIGHT succeed at a higher level with (i) a fresh start, using lessons learned; and (ii) a different system. But let’s 100% NOT turn this into a Sendek debate thread.

  4. StateFans 12/06/2006 at 12:06 PM #

    ^^ Great points by Mr. O.

  5. Slader4881 12/06/2006 at 12:06 PM #

    I feel pleased with how this football coach search has gone. Much smoother than the BBALL search.

    I was curious what everyone thinks, which is more difficult finding a football coach or a basketball coach?

    I think for us basketball is much more difficult bc of the ACC is so much better in bball than football. Also I believe football is easier to identify a system and recruit to that system. Basketball there is less room for error.

    What does everyone else think?

  6. MatSci94 12/06/2006 at 12:08 PM #

    I’m not sure what to think about O’Brien. He has been successful at BC. I seem to remember BC having a couple of players ejected last year, and their end of game play calling and execution against us was not very good. They went to Miami this year for a game that would have put them in the ACC champ game if WF lost, and did not play very well.

    I’m sure O’Brien would be a decent coach here, but I don’t think he would be stellar. The intriguing thing about PJ is that his offense is so unique that he could be really special. PJ does have a higher chance of failure, but I don’t think you have the success he has had without being able to adjust things to your personnel. Texas was successful last year with a spread option, when Florida brings in Tim Tebow(?) you *know* they are going to run some type of run/option play, but they are still successful at it. VT and Clemson also use predominantly running offenses, and they seem to be able to recruit athletes.

    I was on the fence between PJ and the Jimbo package, but I’d rather see PJ than TOB by a large margin.

  7. Big Worm 12/06/2006 at 12:08 PM #

    “Please no, Herb Sendek in cleats, I pray this never comes to pass.”

    A key difference between Herb and TOB is that Herb, in 10 years, didn’t come close to reaching NC State’s basketball “ceiling” – which is actually unlimited, as has been proven in ’74 and ’83. TOB has maxed out BC by winning having at least 7 wins each of the last 8 years and winning 9 games four of those 8 years. That is a very, very solid track record that I would love to have had at State over the last 8 years. I’d rate NC State’s realistic football ceiling to be just marginally higher than BC’s, and if TOB has maxed out BC there’s no reason to think he couldn’t do the same for NC State football.

    People get too enamored with the potential and upside of unprovens, whether you’re talking about the NBA draft or potential head coaches. We’d be wise to follow the (recent) MLB trend of placing increasing value on proven (if less flashy) college performance with their draft picks instead of gambling on high risk-high reward high school phenoms.

    TOB is the college first basement coming off a great junior season with a proven track record but still (possibly) as-of-yet unseen upside. PJ is the high school phenom with greater potential upside but also the greater likelihood of failure. Both could be worldbeaters one day, but given the choice between the two I take TOB over PJ.

  8. MatSci94 12/06/2006 at 12:11 PM #

    “^^why is jimbo fisher off the list??”

    David Glen said on the radio this morning that Jimbo’s interview was canceled by State (presumably yesterday)

  9. partialqualifier 12/06/2006 at 12:12 PM #

    Jimbo is off the list because he is not from NC or a State grad.

  10. Mr O 12/06/2006 at 12:12 PM #

    Slader: That is a great discussion by itself.

    Despite my support of TOB, at this point I am fine with either one of these guys. It would be nice to get the deal done with either, announce it and move forward.

    Both coaches bring a lot to the table. PJ’s one advantage to me is that he is younger. However, I think both coaches bring similar upside but TOB’s upside is clearly visible at this level on the field and in recruiting while PJ’s success at Navy and Ga St. doesn’t translate as well NC State.

    I think our job has some inherent advantages to BC that I discussed above. Obviously, NC State as the same advantages over Navy, however PJ winning at Navy isn’t the same as TOB winning at BC since Navy plays at a lower level(i.e. non BCS).

  11. jbpackfan 12/06/2006 at 12:12 PM #

    packbackr04: His interview was cancelled- I would say that’s pretty solid evidence that we aren’t considering him anymore

  12. partialqualifier 12/06/2006 at 12:13 PM #

    Apparently those are the main criteria for selecting a football coach ^

  13. class of 74 12/06/2006 at 12:15 PM #

    The HS and TOB analogy is this: they are both ulta conservative coaches, stoic, and more bland than milk toast. I’ve a good business friend, who’s a BC graduate, who would love for us or anyone to take TOB off of their hands just to inject some life into what they view as a stale program. Much the same as we felt about the ol’ woodchopper.

  14. skywalkerdt 12/06/2006 at 12:17 PM #

    http://html.wral.com/sh/blogger/wralglenn.html dave glenn’s updated blog, evidently jimbo was considered b list and there is confidence of getting someone above him on the list

  15. partialqualifier 12/06/2006 at 12:18 PM #

    If it’s between Johnson & O’Brien, then I dont really care who gets the job. Altho, upon a little reflection I guess I would have to go with O’Brien. He has competed and won at a MUCH higher level than Johnson. He has won with passing and running. And he has recruited the types of players NC State will need to compete in the ACC.

    Plus….O’Brien is better suited to coach the CURRENT players on State’s roster. I think he would win faster than Johnson. IMO it would take Johnson a couple of years to get the O-Line and QB’s on the roster needed to run his offense.

  16. partialqualifier 12/06/2006 at 12:22 PM #

    Classof74….

    Either way….if it’s O’Brien or Johnson….we’ll be chopping wood. At least O’Brien has been in the same forest and chopped down the size trees we are gonna have to cut down.

  17. Mr O 12/06/2006 at 12:24 PM #

    06 – 9-3
    05 – 9-3
    04 – 9-3
    03 – 8-5
    02 – 9-4
    03 – 8-4
    00 – 7-5
    99 – 8-4

    If the next NC State coach had these records and made us one of the top programs in the country for graduating players, then I would imagine would would all be quite pleased.

    If TOB was at NC State, then he would have had us in Atl or Jacksonville for bowl games most of these years. The hype for our program would be enormous. No academic restrictions, better recruiting base, more hype, better facilities….

  18. Clarksa 12/06/2006 at 12:26 PM #

    Honestly, would it suck to have the following records over the past 8 years? I don’t know how you can argue against it…

    ’06 – 9-3 (could be 10-3 or 9-4)
    ’05 – 9-3
    ’04 – 9-3
    ’03 – 8-5
    ’02 – 9-4
    ’01 – 8-4
    ’00 – 7-5
    ’99 – 8-4

    Thanks to grantwolf on PP for the info…

  19. WolfHunt 12/06/2006 at 12:27 PM #

    I think that either one of these gentlemen could take over our team and have a winning record next season. The uncertainty is in the area of recruiting. Which one would be better at bringing in top-notch talent?

  20. MatSci94 12/06/2006 at 12:28 PM #

    “Both coaches bring a lot to the table. PJ’s one advantage to me is that he is younger. However, I think both coaches bring similar upside but TOB’s upside is clearly visible at this level on the field and in recruiting while PJ’s success at Navy and Ga St. doesn’t translate as well NC State.”

    Thats a very valid point. I don’t think either of these would be a bad choice.

    I think a TOB coached NC State would look similar to BC, with slightly better athletes, and a better traveling fan base to sell to bowl committees. BC has gone to bowl game each of the last 9 years or so, but don’t seem to be attractive enough to get the nicer ones.

    Where PJ has a better upside to me is that they were in the top 5 this year in rushing yards in the country, admittedly against inferior competition (relative to a BCS league) but also with vastly inferior athletes. Imagine a will coached, disciplined NC State team featuring Brown/Baker/Eugene three headed monster. I think that would be exciting to see. It could also be a flop, where TOB is not likely to be.

  21. tvp 12/06/2006 at 12:29 PM #

    I am all for pursuing this.

    However, here’s my concern: Read the BC blogs and message boards. Replace “Tom O’Brien” with “Herb Sendek” and “football” with “basketball” and it is uncannily similar to what we said for 5 years.

    That’s the similarity, Mr. O – he has plateaued at BC. IMO, he’s plateaued at a higher level than Herb plateaued at, and at a school with worse resources, but still.

  22. sautz 12/06/2006 at 12:31 PM #

    TOB doesn’t seem like a choice Fowler would come up with. Do we know who did?

  23. partialqualifier 12/06/2006 at 12:32 PM #

    Good job Mr. O!!

    If O’Brien is a serious candidate (and that is a big IF), and not just another name to keep us from screaming too loud when Johnson is hired….then I actually see no comparison b/w the two. O’Brien has won more at a higher lever in a BCS conference with very strict academic restrictions. He knows the competition better than any coach on the list including Johnson. He has assembled proven D1-A coaching staffs and has coached on all levels with every typ of kid imaginable. It’s a no-brainer if you compare him with Johnson.

  24. Mr O 12/06/2006 at 12:34 PM #

    tvp: I read one of those blogs. However, I don’t think BC football and NC State basketball are similar programs with similar resources. Herb didn’t max out our basketball program IMO. TOB is as close as possible to maxing out BC’s program IMO.

    Though naturally fans always want to win more and always think they can win more which I am sure is what the BC fans are going through with TOB. My guess is that the BC fans don’t think as much of our basketball program and they think more of their own football program.

    Paul Johnson or TOB??? Sign me up.

  25. tvp 12/06/2006 at 12:35 PM #

    It also might be one of those things that you don’t see unless you are following the team day in and day out.

    Superficially Herb’s record looked good, but we all knew he cracked in big games and made poor coaching decisions at the end of games that held us back.

    BC fans seem to have somewhat similar complaints.

    Still, would I be happy if this worked out? Yes. Is this an upgrade over Chuck? Yes.

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