A Collapse Narrowly Averted

One made field goal in the last 10:35 will ensure a dramatic finish, even when nursing a 15 point lead in a low-scoring game. Fortunately, Cam and Gavin kept State alive to get to the 2nd OT, where Miami ran out of gas. Despite blowing the big lead, it was great to win a close road game against a good conference opponent.

Can anyone who has the “U” tell us how it LOOKED, as opposed to how it sounded?

Fun nugget – watching SportsCenter before the game, David Thompson made ESPN’s all-time best dunkers’ list at #5. Ahead of him were Vince Carter, Dominique Wilkins, Michael Jordan, and one other guy whose name escapes me.

UPDATE: Dr. J was #2 on the dunking list. How could I forget him?

About BJD95

1995 NC State graduate, sufferer of Les and MOC during my entire student tenure. An equal-opportunity objective critic and analyst of Wolfpack sports.

General NCS Basketball

78 Responses to A Collapse Narrowly Averted

  1. class of '74 02/09/2006 at 1:53 PM #

    ^Local tv, radio pundits. Vegas apparently doesn’t believe in us.

  2. choppack 02/09/2006 at 1:53 PM #

    Last I saw we were a 1.5 point underdog by the folks whose livelihood depends on such things 🙂

  3. choppack 02/09/2006 at 2:10 PM #

    local tv, radio pundits = folks who don’t really know a lot about stuff outside of their region of expertise and have nothing to lose in being wrong.

    It’s an interesting note, that at one time during this season, we had a better record ATS than all other teams in the major conferences. I imagine that since we’re at best 2-2 ATS during this winning streak – we’ve probably been knocked off of that perch.

  4. class of '74 02/09/2006 at 2:19 PM #

    ^We were underdogs to a team we had already beaten by 12 and had an RPI of 61 to our 22 before last night? And Vegas knows more about ACC basketball than people who cover it day in and day out. Interesting logic!

  5. Rick 02/09/2006 at 2:22 PM #

    “Supposedly, Chris Wright is a jet on the court.”

    I saw him play and he is.
    I would like more like him (at least speed wise).
    IMO speed is more important than height to a bball team.

  6. Mr. O 02/09/2006 at 2:58 PM #

    Class of 74: Using an official betting line to determine a favorite is a pretty normal practice. Because there are such a high number of bets placed on a game, then it is a pretty good gauge on which team is viewed as the favorite.

    A large number of people viewed Miami as a favorite. Not by much, but it is fair to say that more people thought Miami would win then people who thought NC State would win.

    Which local pundits offered predictions on this game?

  7. RickJ 02/09/2006 at 3:02 PM #

    74 – In my opinion, the people who set point spreads with millions of dollars on the line have forgotten more about ACC basketball than people who cover it everyday. I could be wrong though. One day we may read that someone that covers ACC basketball has gotten rich picking games against the spread.

  8. Rick 02/09/2006 at 3:04 PM #

    I know nothing about betting and such but I always heard the point spread was there to make sure there was an even amount bet on both teams and that is does really have that much to do with who is better than who.

  9. class of '74 02/09/2006 at 3:13 PM #

    Ok, ok, ok! Vegas is always right. RPI and Sagrin are fools too! And we were just really lucky to beat them by 12. Boy we sure had one heck of an upset last night.

  10. RickJ 02/09/2006 at 3:26 PM #

    Rick – That is exactly how the point spread is determined. It will move if betting goes too heavy to one side to attempt to even out the betting. The point spread is far from perfect in predicting the outcome of games but it is better than sportswriters, the RPI, Sagarin or any other software package written to predict game outcomes (trust me, people have tried).

  11. class of '74 02/09/2006 at 3:49 PM #

    ^Maybe Vegas should set the field of 64 then.

  12. Chief93 02/09/2006 at 4:14 PM #

    RPI is totally useless as a game predictor; that is nowhere close to its function. Even now, after the game Sagarin has us as a 1.56 point favorite, TeamRankings.com says 1.6, Pomeroy says 0.97; not sure what the results would have been prior to the game, but it was probably much closer to a pick-em.

  13. class of '74 02/09/2006 at 4:25 PM #

    Personally I’ve never followed “the line” as I don’t gamble but a #16 rating and having beaten them already by a dozen. My gosh we are talking MIAMI, a team that can’t fill a small gym at home. That’s a game against a program we should win or we are not a top twenty team and that’s the bottom line. It’s no upset that’s for sure.

  14. choppack 02/09/2006 at 4:35 PM #

    No one is saying that this win was an “upset” – anything w/ in the 3 point margine is pretty much a pick’em. However, the Top 25, RPI, and previous outcomes aren’t based on real-time data. Point spreads are. Miami had won a few straight coming into our game, had a player at full strength (who was previously injured) and was playing at home – against a team who has struggled on the road against good competition.

    Since the line is based on real time and historical data, it is a better gauge than RPI since RPI is based solely on historical data.

  15. BJD95 02/09/2006 at 4:41 PM #

    Essentially, it was an “even money” game. Not an upset either way.

  16. Mr. O 02/09/2006 at 5:05 PM #

    Correct BJD95. We weren’t predicted to blow them out, so the fact that it took us double overtime to win was a fairly normal result.

  17. class of '74 02/09/2006 at 5:07 PM #

    I totally agree it wasn’t an upset, and outside of the gambling world, Miami should not be “favored” over anyone who is in the top 20 either. In fact if they had won the headlines would’ve been Canes upset Pack! My point is and will remain last night is a game we should win given the state of the two programs. Let’s not puff up a win over a lesser program!

  18. RickJ 02/09/2006 at 5:15 PM #

    More importantly, we only moved up 5 spots in the RPI (from 22 to 17). That proves it wasn’t much of a win.

  19. choppack 02/09/2006 at 5:17 PM #

    class of 74 -I would think that it’s not unusual for bubble teams – such as the U – to beat a team in the second half of the Top 25. As a matter of fact, I’d be willing to wager that Miami would do very well against most of the teams in the Top 25 at home. We’ll learn more about them this weekend – when the play Chapel Hill at home.

  20. class of '74 02/09/2006 at 5:21 PM #

    ^You could be right. I understand the UNC game is a sellout whereas ours was not. Miami has a long way to go to become a good team I believe. It’s a little bit like us trying to be a top 10 football team.

  21. JeremyHyatt 02/09/2006 at 7:55 PM #

    BJD95 – “An essential part of being a great team is finding a way to win when the performance is somewhat flawed. But that doesn’t mean we can’t or shouldn’t point out the flaws, and hope they get corrected come March. Because I think we all see that this can be a Final Four/Elite Eight team if we do pull it all together. The parts are there.”

    Bingo. (I know, delayed reaction)

  22. Mr. O 02/10/2006 at 8:07 AM #

    Class of 74: That is an interesting job down there in Miami and you bring up another discussion on how hard it is to be successful at Miami. Personally, I think it is much easier to succeed in basketball at Miami than NC State in football. Your competition for in-state recruits is FSU, S. Fla and Florida none of which are traditional basketball powers. Additionally, the other three schools are so far from Miami that it would appear easier to put a lockdown on S. Fla. We all know a lot of great athletes come out of Florida, so there is no reason to think that some of them don’t play basketball. Additionally, you are recruiting to South Beach as opposed to Raleigh.

    Not that Miami basketball is an easy job, but I would say compared to NC State football it is probably easier overall.

  23. class of '74 02/10/2006 at 8:39 AM #

    ^the problem is those great athletes by and large play two sports: 1. football and 2. baseball. Basketball interest may grow but it will be due to the Heat not the Canes. Miami is too much of a pro town.
    As to our football, the commitment is there the proper people aren’t IMO.

  24. choppack 02/10/2006 at 10:17 AM #

    Actually, Miami is mediocre as a pro-town – they had to black out a Dolphins playoff game a couple of years ago. Miami is a beach town – the big sports are swimming, jetskiing, volleyball, dancing and drinking!

  25. class of '74 02/10/2006 at 10:20 AM #

    ^as bad as the Dolphins were can you blame them. It’s getting better now with Saban as coach. I read the Miami papers a lot and it’s Dolphins year round practically.

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