NC Political Predictions

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  • #111845
    StateRed44
    Participant

    lol at liberal weenies, that’s all

    #111846
    pakfanistan
    Participant

    lol at liberal weenies, that’s all

    Ah yes, let the healing begin.

    #111847
    tractor57
    Participant

    McCroy can hope all he wants but time for the fork – this one is done. HB2 did him in (and I think thaw was a flawed piece of legislation meat as a pander). Minus that crap he would have won easily. I hope Cooper is a decent governor – his ties to the D establishment that was voted out for corruption has me a bit worried. But then so did gov Pat and the cabal that replaced the Ds.

    #111849
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    McCrory just conceded the race. HB2 clearly did him in. Awful bill.

    #111850
    ryebread
    Participant

    Another good read on the national election, the electoral college, etc.:
    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/03/opinion/sunday/why-blue-states-are-the-real-tea-party.html?_r=0

    If one is to believe the Times……

    #111852
    YogiNC
    Participant

    Sorry Rye, that times article doesn’t account for the fact that the metro areas of the country also account for the highest cost of living, which also drives salaries, and as such drives taxes paid. i.e. a one bedroom apartment in NY can cost twice as much as a 4 bedroom out in the sticks of NC. A hamburger at mickey D’s in Manhattan costs twice what it does in Raleigh. Consumer price indexes (GPI) is a much fairer way to view this data. With GPI taken into account tax dollar distribution vs. income from taxation by county is pretty much a wash. If you also take into account state and local taxes and personal property taxes those metro areas have far more monies at their disposal. If you want to have a good look at how that works you only have to go 100 miles to the south. Dillon county and Williamsburg county in SC butt up against Horry county. Horry is one of the richest counties per capita in the US while Dillon and Williamsburg are two of the poorest.

    Smarter than the average bear

    #111853
    StateRed44
    Participant

    No, I don’t believe the Times

    #111854
    pakfanistan
    Participant

    No, I don’t believe the Times

    Who do you believe?

    #111855
    StateRed44
    Participant

    Completely? Who tells the truth?

    #111856
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    Who tells the truth?

    Without spinning facts to meet their preconceived notions

    #111857
    pakfanistan
    Participant

    Completely? Who tells the truth?

    I’m asking. You tell me.

    #111858
    StateRed44
    Participant

    Welp, I reckon the one without a dog in the fight is more likely to be telling the truth; as they see it of course.

    #111859
    pakfanistan
    Participant

    Such as….

    #111860
    StateRed44
    Participant

    Well that’s the pickle here isn’t it? These “news” folks are politically active voters, openly cheering, supporting, and what have you for their dogs (no pun intended). Their ideological bias is not hard to notice. Where does that leave us? Give me some substance here friend. What are your thoughts?

    #111861
    Becton901
    Participant

    How can anyone believe anyone but themselves. One
    must sort through all the crap and divine the truth
    as they see it. Only believe what you either observe
    first hand, or what you know to be true.
    To be skeptical is the first step to ascertaining the truth.

    #111863
    TheCOWDOG
    Moderator

    Is this a good time to give a tip ‘o the cap to civil disobedience in North Dakota?

    Next up..,Martin Marietta at Blounts Creek/Chocowinity. Saddle up them horses.

    #111864
    Adventuroo
    Participant

    Yogi,

    DO you have any data or see any of the “post” election polls? I wonder how WRAL’s viewership is doing. Being an Ex RAL’er, I wonder if folks that turned off WRAL, like I did, during the election cycle are coming back. I probably watch RAL about two hour a week….and that is on the DVR.. Watch the BlackList and sometimes surf the Coach’s shows and then a little on the weather.

    If the Chargers or Seahawks are on, I will watch it then. Jimmy G made a LOT of $$ on this election. He provided FREE endorsements and stories for HRC with his little “hit squad” tried their dad gummedest to convince folks that HRC was a strong leader, a community pillar and your aunt Minnie rolled into one. Their shot setups downplayed Trump’s mega turnout rallies and then did tight shots and lied about the sparse crowd that were at HRC’s.

    I think that the MSM and folks like Limo Lib Jimmy G. will eventually find that their viewership took a hit AFTER the election. Like the SF QB….they turned people off….and now folks are NOT in the habit of watching them.

    Just curious….I just turned on the TV and switched channels to Fox. David Crabtree was LIVE (dancing) reporting on Patty’s concession…

    #111865
    ryebread
    Participant

    If you want to have a good look at how that works you only have to go 100 miles to the south. Dillon county and Williamsburg county in SC butt up against Horry county. Horry is one of the richest counties per capita in the US while Dillon and Williamsburg are two of the poorest.

    Check out my previous posts.
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/education-not-income-predicted-who-would-vote-for-trump/
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/11/22/donald-trump-lost-most-of-the-american-economy-in-this-election/?utm_term=.2dec69784e74

    The rich counties that drive the economy correlate with the educational levels. It’s not always linked, but there’s quite a bit of correlation there. Education is clearly a proxy for voting which in turn is linked with those high output areas. The high output areas are the ones in that top 15 states that give more than they get back. The low output areas are the ones that take more than they put in.

    Let’s take the example in S. Carolina that you cite:
    Dillon (poor and uneducated), voted blue
    Williamsburg (poor and uneducated), voted blue
    Horry (rich? and educated?)
    All three are below the S. Carolina and Federal median household income averages:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_South_Carolina_locations_by_per_capita_income
    They’re all poor counties — far from what I’d describe any as “one of the richest in America.”

    All three are below the S. Carolina and Federal % of college educated adults:
    https://data.ers.usda.gov/reports.aspx?ID=18243#P0ac0756fe43c4756a761bfe38f9e38f3_4_69iT1
    The national average is 29.3%. Horry is admittedly the highest, but it’s still at 22.9%. They’re all in the “uneducated” bucket to some degree.

    If this is meant to be an example of why the above research is incorrect, then I’d suggest finding different data sets.

    Respectfully, I think your argument is mixing local level taxes with Federal level taxes and policies. If people get higher salaries, they’re paying more Federal taxes. Property taxes, school taxes, etc. are all local level and don’t relate to this conversation. This is talking about what states pay “up” to the Federal level vs what they get back. All of that local and state level stuff they take in and then spend.

    If your argument is that people get higher salaries because there’s higher cost of living, then that’s completely ignoring supply and demand. They get higher salaries because their skills are more sought after. The urban areas typically have the demand to support more specialized jobs which pay higher salaries.

    I work at a large multinational with regional based salary bands and adjustments. We’re only adjusting 10-15% or so between two of the highest cost of living spots in the US to RTP (pretty neutral on the national cost index).

    Take an expert in fracking — they’re paid a very high salary to live in North Dakota because that’s where the need for their skill resides. They are also possibly getting more $$ because no one really wants to live in N. Dakota, but that’s clearly secondary because there are people that live in ND for almost no money (historically low cost of living). It is the skill they have in a field of need (demand) that drives the salary.

    Maybe your argument is that everyone in cities is asking for that bump because they don’t want to live there. I think that’d be very hard to find supporting data for. Because of those higher taxes that you cite, urban areas typically have better educational systems, park systems, public transportation systems, public safety, the arts, etc.. People vote with their feet and their spending money to gravitate to those areas. One can see the same behaviors at more micro levels where those local level policies, tax decisions, spending decisions, etc. create clear inequities and desirable and undesirable areas to live within a very tight geographic range.

    Again, I am party neutral. I think the two parties are more similar than they are different in how they run a government. Give me some gridlock.

    I point this out though to show that the electoral college is clearly broken and to show that Trump has some massive challenges ahead of him. He’s coming from a very difficult position where the vast majority of the educated and people with wealth don’t support him. His early nominations aren’t doing him any favors either.

    #111866
    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    For the North Carolina History buffs:

    McCrory’s concession today makes him the first governor in North Carolina history to lose a re-election bid.
    —————————–

    Rye… unfortunately for your explanation… income is not a prerequisite for political rights in the United States…
    in other words, the “poor man’s” vote counts exactly the same as the “rich man’s”.

    Best to leave it that way too… don’t you think?
    —————————–

    B’re ‘Roo… Why does anybody watch real live TV, other than for Sports, anymore, if they have anything else to do???
    Netflix, Hula, the network-dot-coms all give us what we what to see when we what to see it…

    Free yourself from the ’60x and living your life according to some national TV schedule.
    —————————–

    Is this a good time to give a tip ‘o the cap to civil disobedience in North Dakota?

    Hell yeah! for two reasons… First, them folks earned it… without a lot of “help”. And the Corp was/should be the biggest loser. After Chocowinity, maybe Aurora?

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #111868
    TheCOWDOG
    Moderator

    Bill, it’s too late for Aurora, but unlike the illegal permits obtained through McCrory’s hand selected, recently upheld by Berger Jr. gang, the waters surrounding the mine there can handle mine waste infusion.

    Blounts Creek, which feeds the Pamlico system cannot…To the admission of every environmental scientist, including M-M’s own.

    We are not opposed to the mine, but merely its chosen discharge.

    #111870
    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    ^Noted…

    but the problem as I understand it in Aurora is not so much with the discharge, but the amounts of water that are pulled from the Castle Hayne aquifer… which, at times, severely limits the availability of water all across Southeastern NC all the way to Calabash.

    We could re-direct to the “Coal Ash Scam” if you prefer….

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #111882
    Adventuroo
    Participant

    Roses are RED,

    Violet am Purple,

    Patty just melted away like Maple Syrple….

    Say Good Night (Fill In The Blank)….

    This will be interesting. Patty had his faults….not doubt about it. But he could not control the “We just took over” Bunch in 2012. Now with one of them “Liberal ISM” lads in the main chair, it will be interesting to see the power struggle….

    Rev BB will be called in to do a flash crowd scene at the GA….Moral Monday will morph in to Tantrum Tuesday, Whiney Wednesday, Thankless Thursday and Frequent Friday…..not on the weekends….the Rev gotta Rest Up and TCOB at his church…

    Since the GA meter only moved 2 notches (Memory) on the House side and 1 notch on the Senate, things ain’t goona be much different….except that the page of the Official GA and GOV Dictionaries had the page with COMPROMISE ripped out and burned…

    We shall see….and it will be fascinating….especially since the Council of State swung MORE to the GA side of the table.

    Wonder if Roy had a sweet land deal like Mikey had? If so, then dust off the Watergate files and we might just impeach ourselves a Gov. Has THAT been done in NC History? My technical education at NCSU did not delve into such details…

    #111886
    ryebread
    Participant

    Bill: I think I’ve been pretty clear that I think everyone should vote. What I’m calling out is a broken system where candidates receive more votes yet don’t win. That’s now happened in the Presidential election 2 out of 5 times. Getting the most votes and that being the basis of a decision has kind of been the basis of our system since the Mayflower Compact.

    Now, do I think this is changing? Nope. The winning party has zero incentive to change.

    Should it? Yes, but not because of my position on Trump. It has much more to do with general stability and trust in our system. Trump brilliantly played on distrust of the media. That distrust in the system only worsens when a candidate gets more votes and yet loses.

    Those in power need to recognize that these sorts of outcomes are the “let them eat cake” moments that dissolve an empire. All it would take is for Ca to vote to exit Brexit style…..

    #111887
    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    Rye… didn’t mean to imply anything ‘personal’….

    Let’s don’t ever forget…. We, the United States, are a democratic *Republic, not a representative Democracy… which from Day One was very intentionally structured to protect those who would need *protecting the most…

    The Electoral College is rock solid and ain’t going anywhere…
    the most important reason being that 39 state legislatures would have to vote in favor of the Constitutional Amendment effecting its dissolution.

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #111888
    YogiNC
    Participant

    rye, in talking taxes you have to include them all. Horry’s tax base (Myrtle Beach) means MEGA bucks to the county itself. I grew up there. I see the changes that happened over my lifetime. I also see the monies poured into education in that county vs. Dillon and Williamsburg. And YES, you do have to look at the whole picture. Most metro area taxes on the local level are far higher than in the weeds, both from a mills standpoint and an accessed value standpoint. The only difference is the property values of cars, BUT in most cases metro area citizens drive higher valued cars. Property taxes in NY state and CA are atrocious. And sorry rye, Trump may have lost some of the upper ends of education populace BUT by and large they only comprise 20% or less of the population. By that same token I work with some very well educated folks who would have NEVER voted for Hillary. NEVER. the common thread in that group? She is a felon.

    All that being said my personal opinion is the electoral college should be tweaked. One vote per congressional district and 2 per state. Do that math and Hillary loses WAY big. instead of 55 votes from CA she only gets 10 to 15 (estimation) since she only won like 10 districts and two for the state. That impetuous would drive the Demos to a more centrist philosophy, AND we would have never had Obama in the first place. Second, national voter ID law with the E Verify system for employers being used to verify citizenship. it’s estimated over 6 million non citizens voted in this election. 150 bucks and you have enough fake ID to vote anywhere UNTIL you try to use that to go through E Verify. They catch it EVERY time. you’d be surprised how many “recruits” we lose when they find out we do E Verify for our clients.

    Roo, since WRAL “lost” CBS the only thing I watch on there is Blacklist, and I only do that with a DVR that lets me skip the commercials, and Sunday Night Football if there is a game I’m interested in. I’d like to see the ratings since they did that. My bet is Jimmy G has lost tons of bucks due to lost viewership, way more than he would have lost to paying CBS the higher fees. Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face. GEEEESHHH. I’d quit watching their news years ago. THAT bunch IS the bag of deplorables.

    Smarter than the average bear

Viewing 25 posts - 351 through 375 (of 511 total)
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