NC Political Predictions

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This topic contains 510 replies, has 37 voices, and was last updated by  TheCOWDOG 2 years, 10 months ago.

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  • #107183

    BJD95
    Keymaster

    Here, let’s do something productive. Instead of invective, let’s have fun with numbers. Like a Price is Right game, you can assign a total of a 10-point spread in your “confidence” range for your final margin, depending on how much variability you believe there is in each race (Gov, Sen, Pres – NC ONLY).

    Here be mine:

    GOV: Cooper over McCrory by 7 to 12

    The business conservatives have abandoned “Mayor Pat” and he is thusly dead and the question is only how dead. Apparently, private GOP and Dem internals have him around 30% in Wake County which is just astonishing. I always figured this race would never be close, and break heavily in favor of whoever the corporate folk went with. They’ve decided they can work with Cooper and a GOP legislature (and said GOP legislature never much liked McCrory to begin with).

    PRES(NC): Clinton over Trump by 1 to 3

    Narrowest range because people have all made their minds up here. I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a significant undervote with respect to the gubernatorial race, though. One intelligent, well-read wolven friend of mine (a conservative who is voting for Cooper, see prediction above) is leaving it blank because he wants no part in having put his name beside either one of the serious candidates, and finds all the minor party options moonbats.

    SEN: Burr over Ross by 2 to 5

    Richard Burr has run a very strange campaign (non-campaign??), but he didn’t draw an A or B-list opponent, and will just barely survive as a result. He’s maintained his reputation as “Generic, non-offensive Republican” Senator with decent constituent service, and that will get you by in non-horrid cycles.

    #107184

    Wulfpack
    Participant

    Cooper over McCrory by 6.

    Trump over Clinton by 1.

    Burr over Ross by 4.

    #107185

    pakfanistan
    Participant

    Cooper over McCrory by 6.

    Trump over Clinton by 1.

    Burr over Ross by 4.

    This.

    #107188

    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    with a month to go, THIS is all within the range….
    barring unforeseen events nothing changes between now and then…

    Beej… am I the only ones reading your numbers backwards?
    and fwiw… I’m hearing the exact same thing down here from the “business conservatives”…

    Now… I’ve GOTT a question…
    What if Roy decides to move a step or two in that direction and pisses off the school teachers…
    which is another way of saying “Let’s put Education First” says “Let’s waste another couple hundred million” to some folks…
    and Roy softens on that?

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #107189

    13OT
    Participant

    This conservative has not abandoned McCrory, and I don’t think most NC voters have either. I well remember the 1984 election, when Jim Hunt was certain to unseat Jesse Helms, and despite the polls, the “quiet” voters showed up at the polls and gave Helms a decisive win.

    I just don’t think the pollsters today have a clear understanding of the depth of the resentment of the “deplorable” voters, who are tired of having the LGBTQ agenda and the Barack Obama/Hillary Clinton political agenda crammed down their throats. If Amendment One could pass by nearly 63% of the vote, I don’t buy the media’s insistence that everybody hates HB2. Cooper may be hitched to the wrong wagon here.

    The deplorable voters are an extremely motivated group, the most motivated I’ve seen a conservative base since 1980 and probably more-so than then. I see a GOP sweep here in NC.

    #107191

    TheCOWDOG
    Moderator

    I feel ya Beej. Nice sensible topic, and conducive to even someone that has given up a prime stool at the Apolitical Lounge in 2016.

    Here’s my picks using track odds:

    McCrory @ 1/1
    Burr @ 2/5
    Berger @ Whatever Burr says the odds are.

    People. Burr and Berger sleep in the same bed, and are hell bent on destroying NC wetlands in the name of jobs. All they have really done is line their pockets with Martin Marietta casholla.

    Start here, Google some more, and please make my bets losing totes.
    http://m.thewashingtondailynews.com/2016/06/10/blounts-creek-ruling-could-take-months/

    Sorry, Beej. I don’t often leave the lounge…’Cept when I gotta check the back yard. Please learn what is going on with our Coastal Waters under this administration.

    Prove me wrong, peeps.

    #107194

    McCallum
    Participant

    Good Lord in heaven Roy Cooper is the epitome of weak spineless, sell out, limo wristed weasel in the most Terry Sanford fashion possible.

    Yes that Terry Sanford who got caught driving drunk back to Raleigh from Pinehurst and the Cameron PD sat up with him all night holding his head over a toilet at the Rip Van Winkle Inn south of Sanford on US 1.

    McCallum

    #107195

    McCallum
    Participant

    Wetland, smetland.

    Ditch it, tile it, plant it, cut it.

    McCallum

    #107196

    YogiNC
    Participant

    If Obama care continues to tank like it’s currently doing then the Donald hangs that noose around Hillairy’s neck and dems everywhere get whacked along with her.

    Trump by 3 in general, by 4 in NC.
    Mac pull out a close one at 1.5
    Burr cruises at 5 – 10

    And let’s not forget wikileakes is waiting in the wings with some juicy stuff just itching to be dumped. It could be nasty for the dems.

    Smarter than the average bear

    #107199

    TheCOWDOG
    Moderator

    We at war Mac. Even odds.

    #107200

    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    1984 — J&J WWF style… yeah… I had a ringside seat on that one …

    after the 15th round ….

    the ninety counties out voted the ten counties…

    do the math…
    32 yrs later…
    that could and that could not happen….

    ———————
    now if you want to use pollsters…
    then use all of them…
    whatever that averages to will be pretty damn close..
    picking one is a recipe for failure…
    ———————-

    yeah Roy is perceptually a little “soft”..
    but Pat ain’t his own man…
    what’s the difference…

    ———————–
    Burr is running a smart campaign
    which is NOT the best reason to give him your vote…
    but then… Who’s his opponent???

    North Carolina has sent more than enough NoNameJustGladToBeHere folks to US Senate in the last six years to last a generation….

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #107201

    john of sparta
    Participant

    ok, i’ll play.
    Clinton promises “reparations” and wins.
    Cooper tags along.
    Burr, but barely.

    #107206

    tractor57
    Participant

    My prediction is gov Pat turns over that office to the “loyal opposition” so they can have their chance at the trough. Nationally I plan to vote for Snoopy. Burr will probably skate by.

    #107209

    TheAliasTroll
    Participant

    (Clinton OR Trump) over the American People by 100.

    #107211

    Rick
    Keymaster

    (Clinton OR Trump) over the American People by 100.

    Yeah, the people are the losers. I am not sure I will even vote for the first time since I turned 18.
    Ugh. Two awful human beings. I don’t understand how hey were nominated.

    #107213

    Whiteshoes67
    Participant

    McCrory/Cooper – closer than the polls suggest, and I’m going back on my prediction a few months ago, and saying Cooper with the win

    Burr over Ross – by 3-5

    Clinton over Trump – by 6-8 in NC; Trump just doesn’t get enough of the educated, successful Republican vote; only way margin is closer is if Clinton’s base and the young folk don’t show up at the polls

    And not much in the way of change. If you want to make a difference, work at the local level. Fed and state politics didn’t get screwed up over night, and it won’t get fixed with 1-2 election cycles. But it will have to start getting fixed incrementally, or it will soon get to a point where it’s not fixable without major strife, and I don’t mean the political kind

    #107214

    StateRed44
    Participant

    (Clinton OR Trump) over the American People by 100.

    Yeah, the people are the losers. I am not sure I will even vote for the first time since I turned 18.
    Ugh. Two awful human beings. I don’t understand how hey were nominated.

    The quick answer to that, Trump won on immigration and Clinton won by a rigged primary.

    #107216

    pakfanistan
    Participant

    Yeah, the people are the losers. I am not sure I will even vote for the first time since I turned 18.
    Ugh. Two awful human beings. I don’t understand how hey were nominated.

    You could always vote third party. If you’re going to ‘waste’ your vote by not voting for one of the two major parties you may as well ‘waste’ it sending a message.

    #107217

    BJD95
    Keymaster

    Based on a couple of posts, I think there is some agreement with my sense that North Carolina will end up a (R+1) state. That is, the Clinton/Trump margin will be one point to the right of the overall popular vote.

    That will continue North Carolina’s gradual shift to the left at the federal level, as it has shifted to the right at the state level (both due in large part to migration and diversity). Less rapid than Virginia, but similar as “New South” states with diverse populations, high tech jobs, and high education levels.

    More and more, I think North Carolina will be the state political and social scientists will start to look at as a microcosm of “America as a whole” rather than fading rust belt states like Ohio and Pennsylvania.

    And there is everything here. Left, right, center. City, small town, rural, farm. Religious and secular. Black, white, brown, and all other shades in between. Let’s all learn to live together as brothers and sisters, shall we?

    #107218

    Adventuroo
    Participant

    Wrote a post….must have been too long and the spam filters killed it. Here goes….

    Trump trumps HRC. That is in NC….and PROBABLY for the Presidential Race….but time will tell. NC will not make 2008 mistake again. Ohio, which has the best track record, is trending, very heavily, to Trump. Nate Silver’s 538 website has Ohio as a LOCK for Trump. Interesting…

    Trump drew about 14 -15K fans on Tuesday in an airplane hangar in Melbourne, FL. Supposedly (per POLICE numbers) 7500 – 9,000 inside and 6500 or so outside as the Fire Marshall pulled the pin on entry. It was hot and humid and storm clouds were ominous…

    Likewise, HRC packed in the crowd at the Wake Tech (main) Campus Gym. N&O and other media outlets called it a Capacity Crowd (YES, 1,400….Fourteen HUNDRED) is all that Venue will hold. So, Trump’s smaller Florida city rally had 10 TIMES more supporters in a state that is traditionally Democratic.

    Trump campaign reported $15 – $18 Million and there are conflicting amounts lower to around $10 Million in the first 24 hours after debate. HRC went to Chapel Hill for the previously canceled (Medical Conditions) Private Fund Raiser. 165 there. Minimum to get inside was $2,700….more if you wanted a Selfie with HRC. Huma was NOT there. So, she got $450K or so.

    Pat vs. Roy….Santa might bring us a new governor as there will be legal wrangling on the vote count. NC MIGHT be ready to out Chad Florida. Roy and Pat have each (as best I can research) ONE appearance with their National “running mate”. Roy was there when President Obama endorsed Hillary…no joint appearances (again…to the best of my research) since them. Pat was at a Trump Rally at WFU….they actually LET Trump and Pat on the WFU Campus? That is a Macro Aggression….almost Nuclear.

    IF we start to see major ads with HRC calling for Roy’s victory, he is in trouble. Pat probably DOES need Trump’s coattails to win as that will definitely GET OUT THE VOTE.

    The NEA and it’s NC equivalent has melted two servers with political advice to all teachers….at their SCHOOL email addresses. Flyers appear daily in their “paper in boxes”. Teachers are NOT given facts about Mike and Bev’s squandering of state funds for Lawyers to fight two unwinnable suits and software and Unemployment benefits erronously paid out and having to pay BACK the Fed for administrative malfeasance. THAT is why budget could not afford more pay.

    Burr over Ross. Deborah Ross is working on a Katy Perry YouTube video to “Get out HER votes”. Google it. Barbra and Cher also considering baring it all….will do a REAL phallic symbolism If I Could Turn Back Time Video. That will go viral and push HRC over the top. Seriously….Ross is cozing up to HRC. If HRC had had one of her “Freeze Up’s” at the Wake Tech rally, Ross’ nose would have had to have been surgically removed from a place on HRC where the sun don’t shine.

    BUT, the polls can change….and my predictions, like our O and D on the FB gridiron, is not guaranteed….

    #107203

    Adventuroo
    Participant

    WOW….this is interesting….and, for the MOST part, it is just a “speculation” and has not deteriorated….OK, a little.

    Without any hyperbole, my take is the following…

    Pat and Roy will either be settled in the first few minutes after the polls closed….or we will be up all night and there will be recounts that make Gore v. Bush seem like a Sunday School Picnic. The NEA has been beating their email servers and the teacher’s “government paid” email accounts to death with propaganda. The Teacher’s “in boxes” (both physical and electronic) are stuffed daily with Anti-McC articles and fliers. It is WORSE in Wake County… The main theme is NOT that Teachers have NOT received raises….but they were not enough. No one, of course, points out that Mike Easley as AG and Gov fought windmills over two suits (intangibles tax and NC Retiree Tax Exemptions). The “outside attorneys” hired by AG Easley were paid sums approaching one BILLION….and they LOST. The AG’s staff was dead set against continuing to defend the issues, but Mikey was head strong. THEN he let state agencies squander upwards of 500 Million to “Insider…as in the DNC Network” software vendors and then Bev followed suit. Her malfeasance was in paying Unemployment benefits to folks that were NOT eligible. THEN, they had to PAY BACK $$….TWO BILLION? from the Feds and the FEDS (yes the FEDS) said that the payments were made in error and THEN the state had to pay it back. THAT is why the legislature (controlled by both parties) did NOT have the $$’s for the raises that should have been given….

    McC by the thinnest of margins….but there WILL be a run on NON-ID’ed Voters….and there will be many “at large” votes challenges. Cooper’s future campaigning habits (will he attend Obama/Clinton rallies and be seen smiling and having selfies made with them?) will be interesting. I think he will have scheduling conflicts…but you never know…

    Burr v. Ross. Deborah DID attend the HRC event along with the CLT mayor….Huma has NOT been seen on the campaign. Burr will be declared the winner by 10:00 perhaps earlier depending on how the rural NC vote totals come in.

    Trump v. Clinton NC will not pull another 2008. Trump has momentum. HRC is fighting for NC, but her crowds in NC are less than stellar. Lot like the attendance in Keenan Stadium. Carefully chosen venues. Per one article in the N&O, the Wake Tech Gym Venue TODAY was at CAPACITY (but that was only 1400). Remember that Wake Tech is NOT the PNC or the Dean Dome or even the Cow Palace.

    Clinton THEN was whisked off to Chapel Hill for the “Rescheduled” Fund raiser that was cancelled due to her health issues earlier in September. 165 folks paid a minimum of $2,700 to be in the same “location” as HRC. That raised, at a minimum of $450K. IF you wanted to actually get into the SAME room, you paid more. Want a photo? Shell out. Jimbo Fischer used the SAME technique at a FSU Booster Rally in West Palm Beach in 2014…was at the same resort and talked to the fans. Photo’s were EXTRA and they had TWO separate lines and a “stand-in” to set the shot so that the process generated the MAX $$’s. Who says Sports and Politics are different….

    Trump was in Melbourne, FL today. Melbourne is smaller than Raleigh and Wake County is the TRUE BLUE LAND. The venue held 8500 or so there were about 6000 outside in very steamy and humid weather. SO, HRC only attracted 1400 today….and the visit was postponed and rescheduled due to CLT uninviting her. BUT, she left with some $$’s. Trump pulled in 25,000 and Florida is more of a D (Blue) state than NC is an R (Red). THAT type of enthusiasm speaks volumes about NC “Being in play”. The spending in the state is lopsided…with Jim Goodmon is working BOTH sides of the aisle…

    Trump campaign posted a message that $18,000,000 (eighteen Million) was raised by his Deplorables….since the END of the Debate. NOT a bad haul….

    That’s my prediction…..it, like our FB predictions are subject to change….I agree with the poster….WikiLeaks will NOT be kind to HRC….but don’t count on it helping out Patty McC..

    EPR (End of Political Rant)….post on….

    #107230

    Rick
    Keymaster

    I found two avdventeroo posts in pending and added them

    #107240

    ncsu1987
    Participant

    Hey Beej, not sure if I understand your rules, but I’ll take a stab:

    McCrory/Cooper: Cooper wins, by 4-9

    Clinton/Trump: Trump wins, by 1-3

    Burr/Ross: Burr Wins by 1-4

    Will be interesting to see if Burr’s laissez-faire (non)campaign will bite him. I’m quite surprised by how well Ross is showing in polls.

    #107243

    Daniel_Simpson_Day
    Participant

    No point in putting my picks in since they are basically the same as BJD’s.

    Rick: “I am not sure I will even vote for the first time since I turned 18.”
    Paki: “You could always vote third party. If you’re going to ‘waste’ your vote by not voting for one of the two major parties you may as well ‘waste’ it sending a message.”

    Sadly, I’m in the same boat as Rick. And don’t lecture me about “civic duty” (and my wife is a history teacher/civics buff); as I’ve told her and several friends, none of the Presidential candidates have earned my vote.

    #107244

    BJD95
    Keymaster

    As my conservative wolven friend said, “I grudgingly sort of hope (HillyBob) wins, because while she’s a criminal, she’s at least sane. But I can’t stand for having my name associated with her election.”

    And I think that’s a completely fair, reasoned take on it. It’s not where I come out on the issue, but I understand where he’s coming from. I would be in a similar position if Sanders had won, it would be Johnson or nobody (since I can’t write in my cat in NC, though I have in the past for lower offices when no candidate had earned my vote).

    As I noted above, I think the Presidential undervote will be pretty significant. We will see if one or both parties learn anything or not.

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