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I enjoy doing these weekly updates on ACC basketball. (I guess that’s a good thing because the pay certainly sucks.) But I would hate to do a bracket
[See the full post at: Basketball Weekly Roundup]But is that what Miami sayeth? Like to see if we get Henderson, if we have a run in us. Unlikely, but not impossible. Other than the UVA second half collapse, we have been in every game we lost.
VaWolf,
Thanks for all the effort putting this information together. I always enjoy the analysis.
Just wish the Pack could find its way higher in the pecking order !
Like to see if we get Henderson, if we have a run in us. Unlikely, but not impossible.
It’s so close to impossible that it would be hard to tell the difference. This team is not one player away from being something special.
“This team is not one player away from being something special.”
True, Who knows what Henderson would bring. The real issue is the percent chance of Caleb and Rowan hitting the open 3. It’s too low. If one of those guys gets on a hot streak, we are competitive, if both, we could be “something special” but after a whole season of waiting I realize, their hot streaks are few and far between. There is no slump that is going to end. It is what it is. Maybe they will be better draining 3s next year. As it is, I’m hoping but not really expecting, beyond one game. Go watch Scott Wood highlights and dream of next year.
I guess to clarify my point I believe 3 point shooting from Caleb and Rowan is the one thing that could have made this team different, the biggest weakness.
Our blowout at UVA – at one point UVA 6-9 from 3, NCSU 1-9 from 3. That’s a 15 point difference. It’s been hard to watch this team. Hard to hear announcers talking about States poor shot selection when they not bad shots, we just missed open 3’s. In the UVA game, I did hear the women announcer actually say State was getting the shots it wanted but missing them. So at least she did not piss me off as much as most of the loud mouth prognosticators.
Think how if affects the game overall. One thing defenses did not want to do with the likes of Wood or Turner is let them have an early open 3. Because they might hit those at a 60% rate. Hit a couple, and then the shot selection and makes start coming from a fast break, of 5 feet beyond the arch, or while covered. You let a guy get hot and he makes them from everywhere.
Defenses do not have as much pressure to worry about Caleb who never gets so hot that you think everything he shoots will go in. And Rowan has only shown that a couple times this season. So with the 3 less of a threat from those two, guys that are not going to go off and beat them, they can focus on Cat and the inside game. We are just missing that piece of the puzzle.I would like to see us finish ahead of Clemson in the RPI, just because that would amuse me. I do think we win on Saturday, as we are undefeated on days my kid visits a college (WCU this week, though Mom is taking this one).
We must win 6 minimum, likely 7 to have ANY shot at avoiding ACCT Tuesday (thanks to our awful tiebreaker record).
My fondest wish right now is for the ACC to get only 5 teams in the NCAAT. We have two chances to help this cause (vs Clemson and Syracuse). I like our chances to win Saturday and to beat BC, but I see little hope of us winning those other 3.
I thought we were in bad shape after several years of Lowe, but the only ceiling I see for this program, given its current direction, is MEDIOCRITY.
I watched Henderson in the preseason exhibition game against no name opposition in person which was more telling than his seven minute regular season…
The answer is No.
#NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!I truly dont get where people are thinking Henderson is some sort of savior for the program or team. All the things that were coming out before he got hurt was that he was just a spot up jump shooter with shaky defense that will just play a role in the offense. Now he is all of a sudden some guy who is going to score 20 a night and excels at defense and drives the lane.
I thought we were in bad shape after several years of Lowe, but the only ceiling I see for this program, given its current direction, is MEDIOCRITY.
I truly dont get where people are thinking Henderson is some sort of savior for the program or team.
It’s really not that complicated. People looking for excuses generally grab the first one that they find.
It’s a toss-up which is more frequent on State message boards….blame-storming (everything but the coach), coach bashing, or reasons to WTNY. Though this year, WTNY died about one month into the FB season.
hey Va…
Bro… you left out… “ISWIT”…
(thats — It Is What It Is — for those without a decoder ring…)
Engineers GOTT to cover ALL the options… you know….
Inertia….
The more the change … the more they stay the same…
What goes up… comes down
For every action… there’s a equal opposite reaction
Regression to mean…
etc, etc, etc….#NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!Well done Vawolf.
I tend to sink into the coach bashing mode, myself. I have never understood player bashing. The players all want to win and are largely the product of recruiting and coaching. About the only time it ain’t totally on the coach are his/her first few years.
There are so many examples of dramatic differences in an athletic team’ performance with exceptional coaching. I would love to see us invest in the absolute best coaches and build a few national caliber teams. And it doesn’t have to be the two revenue sports. I would blow up the budgets for wrestling, swimming, and anything else where it was clear we had some apparently exceptional coaches. A national championship or two would do wonders for Wolfpack nation. I know it would for me.
I would invest in an analytic group within the AD that supported all coaching and recruiting in all sports. I mean that the coaching hires and timing of coaching hires would be so thoroughly analyzed that we would rarely get stuck with no options for a likely exceptional candidate. And, it would include budget modeling so that we would be able to hire the best of the best in some programs and try to get lucky in others with newcomer potential and cheaper hires.
Don’t know if any of this makes sense, time to either go back to bed or make some coffee and let the dog out.
I truly dont get where people are thinking Henderson is some sort of savior for the program or team. All the things that were coming out before he got hurt was that he was just a spot up jump shooter with shaky defense that will just play a role in the offense. Now he is all of a sudden some guy who is going to score 20 a night and excels at defense and drives the lane.
Whoa, whoa, whoa. Where the hell are you getting this? I’m in the Henderson’s no savior camp, but your assessment of his game clearly shows you know nothing about it. “Spot up jump shooter”. Not even close. He can do that, but his strength is putting the ball on the floor and creating his own shot. “Shaky defense”. Bob Huggins who knows a little bit about playing defense has lauded Henederson on his defense while playing at WVU. It’s one of his strengths.
I agree he’s not a program changer, but come on, don’t just throw stuff out there.
I watched Henderson in the preseason exhibition game against no name opposition in person which was more telling than his seven minute regular season…
The answer is No.
Yep, he was not very good in that game. I guess I would caution though that Trevor Lacey was awful in his exhibition game against Queens last year. If that had of been Trevor’s body of work, we’d all be wondering why all the hype. I honestly think in both cases it was nerves and simply trying too hard. It was their 1st real game action in a year and a half, and they wanted to show the fans what they can do. It’s more pronounced in Terry’s case since he’s a hometown guy. He was just pressing. I even saw it in his 7 short minutes against W&M. I hate that we didn’t get to see his real game. He is a perfect fit for this offense.
Just one final thing on Henderson. If he does come back, I wouldn’t expect much. He has now played one exhibition game plus 7 minutes over the past two years. He will be likely be out of shape and a step behind everyone. It’s becoming less and less reasonable to even have him got out there at all this year.
Again, the point is that Henderson allows us to have a secondary ballhandler, freeing up Cat to move without the ball, allowing to run actual halfcourt sets, and play non-shite Perimeter defense.
The difference between no chance and some chance, because the roster goes from doomed to merely “fragile” in its construction. NOT because Henderson is a world-beater, but solely by his being a legitimate, living, breathing, D-1 caliber guard.
I will never be suckered into thinking you can play “4 forwards” on offense again. In retrospect, it was pure wishcasting.
Who was it that mentioned the butterfly effect?
We’ve lost five games by five points or less, and another five(ish) by less than 10.
Let’s say the team with Henderson is worth an extra five points on offense, and maybe five points on defense, which isn’t really that much of a stretch, what might our record look like? What if……..
Disclaimer: I don’t think Gott is basketball Jesus. I do think this team was on the razors edge when the season started, and losing Henderson put us in a tailspin.
Think of it as a Monte Carlo simulation. If you ran 1,000 computer simulations of NC State basketball seasons with Henderson healthy, I am reasonably confident that a statistically significant number of them (200? 300? 500?) would have State in the NCAAT, at least.
Note that I would IN NO WAY suggest that number is anywhere approaching 1,000. Just the difference between some chance and no chance. With the roster as currently constructed, I’d expect that number to be around 20-25.
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