2014-15 Post-WBS Roster Thoughts and Bold Predictions

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  • #50292
    Tau837
    Participant

    I think it’s helpful to segregate the reasons for Gott’s transfers/early departures. Some of these reasons overlap, but I’d generally segregate the major reasons as follows:

    1. Result of coaching transition (didn’t want to play for new coach): Harrow
    2. Result of coaching transition (not talented enough for new coach): Raymond
    3. Result of playing time (not getting as many minutes as desired and not willing/capable of earning them): Painter, Harris, Lewis
    4. Result of bad attitude (by player and/or parents): De Thaey, Purvis
    5. Result of going pro early (with some reasonable basis to do so): Brown, Leslie, Warren?

    There could be some overlap here. I debated putting Harris in category #4, for example. Also, perhaps this categorization is unfair for Painter, since he had a family issue; I have always thought that at least part of his departure was tied to his expected view of his playing time, especially considering that many expected Amile Jefferson to end up at State.

    I put zero responsibility on Gott for categories #1 and #2 above. And I also put zero responsibility on him for category #5; IMO it is clear that Gott helped Brown, Leslie, and Warren to achieve sufficient pro potential to make the leap (assuming here that Warren goes pro this year, obviously). In retrospect, it’s possible that Brown and/or Leslie would have been better off staying, but that’s not on Gott, and that also might have disrupted some of our recruiting (e.g., had Leslie stayed, we might not have gotten all 3 freshman bigs this past season).

    And if you buy Painter’s reasons as being solely about family, I don’t think you can blame Gott for that either.

    I would also segregate these players as follows in terms of impact on the team:

    6. Departures that hurt the team: Painter, Lewis (maybe)
    7. Departures that didn’t hurt the team: Harrow, Raymond, Harris, De Thaey, Purvis (can’t overlook the attitude)

    I suspect some will argue that Purvis leaving hurt the team, since he was a highly regarded recruit who theoretically could/should have played a lot better than he showed in his freshman season if he stayed. Even ignoring his attitude problem and moving him into that category, that’s still only three transfers that hurt the team.

    But now consider that Gott brought in transfers Johnson, Turner, Lacey, and Lee so far. IMO that group is at least as good as the group of Painter, Lewis, and Purvis, and it could prove to be better. Sure, Lewis and Purvis had strong credentials, but at this point it is no given either of them will live up to them.

    Meanwhile, as others have pointed out, there is reason to be cautiously optimistic at this point that we will have a roster next season that goes 10 deep with legit ACC talent. This despite Gott losing 10 non-seniors to various departures in three seasons, plus losing at least 5 senior rotation players that I can think of off the top of my head.

    I can’t remember the last State team that ran 10 deep with legitimate ACC talent. Can anyone else? Do we have to go back to Valvano’s years for that?

    So… what’s the problem, exactly? I’m not seeing it.

    #50293
    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    Should we be concerned about the Dook program and K’s leadership too?

    Yes… but that has nothing to do with either team’s transfer rate…
    Personally, I could care less… what Coach Rat’s transfer rate is or Uncle Roy’s for that matter …

    That said, when we are beating them on the court more often than they are beating us… Then we may be ‘less concerned’ about the Dookies…

    Truth is … back in the day… when we were whipping them 8 times out of 10 or more… they were the always one of the toughest teams we played… at home and in Cameron….

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #50294
    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    …there is reason to be cautiously optimistic at this point that we will have a roster next season that goes 10 deep with legit ACC talent…

    I don’t disagree that more depth is a whole lot better than no depth…

    … but what exactly does this mean…. “…legit ACC talent…” ???

    I am thinking to be the program we want to be… we have to have two guys… a Point Guard and a Big Man… one FirstTeam-All Everything-InAnyLeague… and one SecondTeam-All Everything-InAnyLeague…. in addition to the other 8 “legit ACC talents”… who could also start for any team in the conference…

    Looking down the bench to next season… we are still a good ways away from that… especially after watching this weekend’s games… and losing Tyler does not help… at all…

    ———–

    And thanks for an excellent breakdown on our transfers in and out… during the coaching transition… well written and dead on the money…

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #50299
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    I view it as 10 guys you can go to and not feel like you’re hurting your chance to compete at a high level. This season, we had 9 (making Purvis’ expendable, especially with his assy attitude – there apparently was almost ZERO chance Buckets would come back with Purvis around, based on what I heard).

    I like how MG showed he really would play 9 guys this year. That showed real growth as a coach, in my opinion. Should take away one sure-fire avenue to more transfers, at least.

    The question is whether the Martin twins will be ready to contribute right away. Remember, we have to keep BOTH happy. It’s not possible to keep one twin happy. But we have 8 guys that I’m certain about. Even if the Martins are a stretch, I’m sure it will be a far cry from having to play a glorified walkon when there’s illness/injury/foul trouble.

    Also not clear whether the Appy guard could play right away if the NCAA clears him, or would still have to wait until 2015-16 (when Des will have graduated).

    #50300
    13OT
    Participant

    Cat Barber to me is a better basketball player than Tyler Lewis, but I think Tyler was the better point guard. I think our coaches did ok in developing some of our players, but I don’t think the coach lives who can make Barber an effective point guard at the ACC level. Shooting guard, maybe, but not point.

    This sports year continues its plunge into the abyss with the baseball team’s 9th ACC loss in a row. Ain’t nothin’ going right………….

    #50303
    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    I don’t think the coach lives who can make Barber an effective point guard at the ACC level. Shooting guard, maybe, but not point.

    … Come on… OT13… it ain’t that bad…

    Just because it took Coach 3/4 of this season to get Anthony’s attention and to get him to try to do something on offense other than Anthony on 3,4 or 5…. does not mean it’s impossible… a whole lot can happen in two – three seasons…

    Anthony will be All ACC his Senior year…
    unfortunately… he’ll probably transfer first…

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #50307
    Rick
    Keymaster

    Oh, sure, I get it for the perennial Gott haters – it’s a convenient hook on which to hang their hat. Between 3 consecutive NCAA appearances and 70 wins in those 3 years, there’s precious little else for them.

    For the love of pete can we stop with the “Gott haters”, if you cannot have a disagreement with someone without calling them a “hater” then this site is probably not for you. There are plusses and minuses to what Gott has done. Anyone should be able to see that. We are debating the pros and cons. If you cannot handle that discussion again, this site might be a bit much for you.

    #50308
    Rick
    Keymaster

    This seems to dispute the claim that transfers are only 10% per year:

    NCAA president Mark Emmert made them a frontburner issue in May when he expressed concern over the fact that 40 percent of men’s basketball players are not at their original school by the end of their sophomore year

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/luke_winn/07/18/up-transfers-NCAA-basketball/

    40%? I find that very very hard to believe.

    #50309
    Rick
    Keymaster

    Meanwhile, as others have pointed out, there is reason to be cautiously optimistic at this point that we will have a roster next season that goes 10 deep with legit ACC talent

    I am struggling to be optimistic given how the players on the team this year played. There is going to have to be a ton of growth in the off season to offset the loss of Buckets. We all hope it happens but there is certainly no guarantee that it will.
    It should be an interesting team to watch that is for sure.

    #50311
    OutWestWolf
    Participant

    ^I am struggling to be optimistic…

    Yep, that sums you up.

    ^There is going to have to be a ton of growth in the off season…

    Yep, that’s a typical process in sports and competition.

    And, if your going pitch sh#t at the coach at every single opportunity own up to the hater label. Certainly not disputing some of the stuff your putting out there, but when its all from one side then some folks might want to call a spade a spade.

    #50312
    Rick
    Keymaster

    ^I am struggling to be optimistic…

    Yep, that sums you up.

    ^There is going to have to be a ton of growth in the off season…

    Yep, that’s a typical process in sports and competition.

    And, if your going pitch sh#t at the coach at every single opportunity own up to the hater label. Certainly not disputing some of the stuff your putting out there, but when its all from one side then some folks might want to call a spade a spade.

    I have been told all season I have been “blaming all the losses on the refs” but now you want to call me a Gott hater because I am frank about some of his shortcomings. Too bad you could not put your big boy pants on and address my actual points instead of just tossing out mindless labels.

    #50316
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    40%? I find that very very hard to believe.

    40% seems awfully high to me as well. But if those are the numbers, then we gotta go with them. I don’t see this happening at Duke and UNC. Established coaches, I get that. There is a difference and reasons for that difference. I probably do not pay enough attention to the other schools in our league. The Virginia example is helpful. Bennett had to get his own guys. Gott is doing the same. I just hate to see talented kids leave. Lewis was good enough to be a leader here. His defense was a liability but he really got us going offensively, and hardly ever turned it over. Cat was out of control way too often, but hopefully that can be reigned in a bit going forward. Defensively though I was very pleased with Cat and we obviously need a lot of help there.

    Gott is building his program the way he feels is best. We’ve gone three-for-three, so he is doing something right. I have never called for his head, but have pointed out that we may be missing out the way we did before with Sean. The timing just is not right, I get it.

    Does he have what it takes to get us to the next level i.e. competing for championships? We will see.

    #50319
    Rick
    Keymaster

    Gott is building his program the way he feels is best. We’ve gone three-for-three, so he is doing something right. I have never called for his head, but have pointed out that we may be missing out the way we did before with Sean. The timing just is not right, I get it.

    Does he have what it takes to get us to the next level i.e. competing for championships? We will see.

    I feel like we are missing out too and to top it off it is an alum. Gott has been impressive but there have been a ton of “what could have beens” with him so far.
    His recruiting seems to be leveling out and a lot of the good players he recruits are transferring out.

    Maybe we can all agree not to blame “youth” if anything goes wrong next year. Playing young players is the norm rather than the exception now. And you need those seasoned four year players to win championships. I saw somewhere that out of the last ten or so NCAA champions there were not many one and done starters. You have to keep your talent to win.

    #50326
    Tau837
    Participant

    On the subject of Cat vs. Tyler, I think a lot of fans overrate Tyler’s performance in comparison to Cat’s.

    Cat was better than Lewis this season in the following categories:

    FG%
    3FG%
    eFG%
    TS%
    OREB%
    DREB%
    STL%
    BLK%
    TO% (that’s right, Tyler turned the ball over more often)

    Tyler was better at FT%, AST%, and A/T. But not by as much as I suspect most think. Tyler’s AST% was 32.8%, compared to 27.5% for Cat… And that is far better than Tyler as a freshman (17.5%). Tyler’s A/T ratio was much better than Cat’s this year, but Cat’s was 2.0, not far behind Tyler’s 2.2 as a freshman… And Tyler was passing to a much more experienced and offensively talented team as a freshman than Cat was this year.

    More important than those metrics, Cat had a better +/- and Roland Rating than Tyler this year, showing that the team performed better overall (including both offense and defense) with him on the floor.

    IMO Cat’s future is bright.

    #50328
    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    … throw another log on the fire…

    Some how and some where … some of the Tyler transfer story has some thing to do with being in the right place at the right time and luck…

    From day one… we all saw glimpses of Monte Towe and Chris Corchiani in Tyler…
    Remember… neither Monte or Corchiani were known as defensive ‘stoppers’… just great floor leaders with decent stat lines…

    … but Monte had David and Stoddard and Rivers and Burleson and a good bench…
    Corchiani had Rodney Monroe and Tom Gugliotta and a good bench…

    Tyler had Cuz… and who else ??

    … just something to think about…

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #50329
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    Does he have what it takes to get us to the next level i.e. competing for championships? We will see.

    This is obviously the only important question with all others picking around the edges of this central issue. (Note that because of the many debates with the HSSS, your use of “competing” makes me shudder.)

    We will definitely see, because there is no way that a change is made anytime soon (unless some ugly off-court issue should arise).

    #50331
    Tau837
    Participant

    From day one… we all saw glimpses of Monte Towe and Chris Corchiani in Tyler…

    I am not old enough to have seen Towe play, but Corchiani played during my undergraduate years. I guess when you say “glimpses” it can be can’t really be argued, since a white State PG making some good passes can be argued to be “glimpses.” But that really isn’t saying anything substantive. And I don’t think there is any substantive similarity beyond position and race.

    IMO he would have been the backup PG had he stayed, so to me this entire discussion is about our backup PG transferring out. It’s unfortunate, but it’s not necessarily going to be a significant impact on the program going forward.

    #50333
    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    ^just add something about being ‘short’…

    … and it’s the “floor leadership thing”… I was really referring to…

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #50335
    Wolfpackforlife
    Participant

    From day one… we all saw glimpses of Monte Towe and Chris Corchiani in Tyler…

    I can tell you the difference between Tyler and Corchiani. Corch was very tuff! he was a thorn in the side of the other team. He also had a lot better shot than Tyler. Corchiani was a leader, Tyler just isn’t.

    #50338
    ncsu1987
    Participant

    For the love of pete can we stop with the “Gott haters”, if you cannot have a disagreement with someone without calling them a “hater” then this site is probably not for you.

    Rick, that’s a fair criticism, and I acknowledge the poor wording.

    #50340
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    On the subject of Cat vs. Tyler, I think a lot of fans overrate Tyler’s performance in comparison to Cat’s.

    Cat was better than Lewis this season in the following categories:

    FG%
    3FG%
    eFG%
    TS%
    OREB%
    DREB%
    STL%
    BLK%
    TO% (that’s right, Tyler turned the ball over more often)

    Tyler was better at FT%, AST%, and A/T. But not by as much as I suspect most think. Tyler’s AST% was 32.8%, compared to 27.5% for Cat… And that is far better than Tyler as a freshman (17.5%). Tyler’s A/T ratio was much better than Cat’s this year, but Cat’s was 2.0, not far behind Tyler’s 2.2 as a freshman… And Tyler was passing to a much more experienced and offensively talented team as a freshman than Cat was this year.

    More important than those metrics, Cat had a better +/- and Roland Rating than Tyler this year, showing that the team performed better overall (including both offense and defense) with him on the floor.

    IMO Cat’s future is bright.

    From your mouth to God’s ears. There’s a reason MG only turned to WBS when Cat feel into a deep slump (and then it was only 50/50). Cat’s the better player, and as a freshman, he has significantly more room to get better. You impact just as many possessions on defense as you do offense.

    Corchiani was so quick that V used him to guard really good centers from time to time, because he would pick their pockets clean. I’m not old enough to have seen Towe play live, but I would bet my bottom dollar that he wasn’t a cipher on defense either.

    Oh, and his senior year…Corch won the collegiate three-point shooting contest. He beat Monroe in the finals (granted, Monroe wore himself out in the prior round, which was by far the best anyone shot in the entire competition).

    Lewis’ similarities were only the very superficial. He was/is short and caucasian. I would describe him much more (accurately IMHO) as a poor man’s Justin Gainey.

    But you don’t have to believe me…believe the market. If he has much in common with Corch and Towe, then high major programs will be lining up to sign him as a transfer. If my take is more accurate…he’ll end up at a lesser power conference school or mid-major, and be a solid (not great) player.

    I wish Lewis the very best, but the minutes he played were what he earned here, and he saw the writing on the wall going forward. I have no doubt our staff was honest with him about it.

    People are more apt to “identify” with Lewis than with Cat, and often have their evaluations get thrown off as a result.

    #50341
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    And maybe I identify too much with KH, in that I really, really like to eat. So take my opinions on him with a grain of salt (on a nice bacon burger). 😀

    #50343
    packalum44
    Participant

    Way too much optimism circling the table for a team that just lost its starting PG. Jeezzz.

    Gottfried wouldn’t have ever played Craig McDermott b/c his upside isn’t that of whatever more athletic player was on the team.

    #50344
    redcanine
    Participant

    Gottfried played Scott Wood, remember? He was about as white and unheralded as they come.

    I’m not seeing your point.

    #50346
    TheCOWDOG
    Moderator

    Monte was deadly from 25 ft, as he was from the FT line. Yes, he could funnel to teammies, but picked pockets quite regularly, and broke pressure single handedly.

    You guys saw more of Corch, but damn…

    I think Beach Bum Bill just trolled you and me.

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