Sometimes you win.
Sometimes you lose.
Sometimes it rains.
With apologies to Nuke Laloosh, State has seen way too much of the middle and latter, and not nearly enough of the former of late. Obviously, they ain’t been breathing through their eyelids correctly.
With 75% of the 2015 college baseball season in the rearview, Wolfpack Baseball enters the stretch run on rocky footing not only for the NCAA Tournament, but the ACC Tournament as well.
The past two weeks have not been kind to the Pack9, as they dropped consecutive series on the road to both Carolina and Notre Dame. Dating back to the FSU series, the Pack has dropped 3 consecutive series.
And though they haven’t been swept in any of those and they’ve avoided any extended losing streaks since March, they’ve avoided extended winning streaks as well and overall have dropped 6 of their past 8 games.
And two more dates got washed out in the past two weeks as well.
In truth, the Pack has royally sucked everywhere but Raleigh for the most part this season (14-3 home, 4-12 road, 3-2 neutral).
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The Good News
With 13 games remaining in the season, and 10 of those in the friendly confines of Doak Field, the Pack has enough opportunity left to reverse course. But it’s now past the point of having any wiggle room.
Any wiggle room went bye bye on the last road trip.
The Semi-Good News
The Pack currently sports an RPI of 65.
Not anywhere near what they will need for an at large bid to the NCAA tournament, but also not so bad that they’re beyond striking distance. With a home schedule which still features 3 game series vs UVa (#32), Longwood (#166) and Louisville (#11), and a single game vs Campbell (#86); and with a road series at Wake (#88), State can still make it happen.
As far as the ACC Tourney is concerned, if the season ended today the Pack would amazingly enough not only be in the 10 team field, but would currently warrant the seventh seed, only a game behind Carolina for the sixth seed (lowest seed that avoids the Tuesday play-in games).
The Bad News (NCAAT)
State pretty much needs to win all three of their remaining ACC series, sweep Longwood and take the Campbell game to have any chance. And even then they’d still be bubblicious.
Losing the road series to Wake and/or a single game to Longwood (and possibly even Campbell) will pretty much be the final nail in any NCAAT hopes unless the Pack sweeps both UVa and Louisville.
The Bad News (ACCT)
Despite holding the 7th seed currently, there are several teams right on the Pack’s tail. BC is actually tied with the Pack (but loses out on the seeding tiebreaker), with Wake, UVa, GT and VT all within one game. In other words, if a few of those teams go on a win streak, and the Pack doesn’t match it, it’s Sayanora State.
Fortunately the Pack faces two of those teams (UVa, Wake) and thus has at least some control of its own destiny. Also fortunately, some of them face one another and none other than VT have particularly easy stretch runs.
But the bottom line for the Pack for both the NCAAT and the ACCT is simple…
None of the rest matters if the Pack can’t win some ball games.
Next Up
State welcomes UVa to the Doak this weekend for (hopefully) 3 games. Saturday and Sunday are already looking sketchy with regard to weather.
UVa (26-15, 9-12 ACC) has their own little dissapointing season going.
CWS Runners-Up a year ago, the ‘Hoos were among the favorites to take the title in Omaha this year, as well as the ACC Crown. But so far they haven’t lived up to the advanced billing, similar to the Pack’s ’14 campaign. Despite a very respectable RPI of #32, they are even closer than the Pack to being on the outside looking in regarding the ACC Tournament. They currently would hold the tenth and final seed.
But it would be a mistake to consider the ‘Hoos as anything but dangerous.
Winners of 5 of their last 6, including a series win vs Coastal Division leader Miami, UVa seems to be getting things rolling as just the right time. Or the wrong time if you’re a State fan.
With their backs against the wall to a degree, and with the Pack being one of the teams they need to pass to improve their ACCT outlook, I look for the ‘Hoos to come in strong.
Games Schedule – TV
- Friday 4/24, 6:30pm – ESPN3
- Saturday 4/25, 6:30pm – ESPN3
- Sunday 4/26, 1pm – ESPN3
NCSU Remaining Schedule
- 4/24,25,26 UVa x3
- 5/1,2,3 Longwood x3
- 5/5 Campbell
- 5/8,9,11 @Wake x3
- 5/14,15,16 Louisville x3
ACC Standings
Atlantic
| Schools | Conf W-L-T | Conf PCT | W-L-T | PCT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville | 19-2-0 | .905 | 31-10-0 | .756 | |
| Florida State | 14-7-0 | .667 | 31-12-0 | .721 | |
| Clemson | 11-9-0 | .550 | 22-19-0 | .537 | |
| Notre Dame | 11-10-0 | .524 | 27-13-0 | .675 | |
| NC State | 9-11-0 | .450 | 21-17-0 | .553 | |
| Boston College | 9-11-0 | .450 | 22-18-0 | .550 | |
| Wake Forest | 9-12-0 | .429 | 23-19-0 | .548 |
Coastal
| Schools | Conf W-L-T | Conf PCT | W-L-T | PCT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | 15-6-0 | .714 | 30-11-0 | .732 | |
| North Carolina | 10-10-0 | .500 | 26-15-0 | .634 | |
| Virginia | 9-12-0 | .429 | 26-15-0 | .634 | |
| Georgia Tech | 9-12-0 | .429 | 24-16-0 | .600 | |
| Virginia Tech | 8-12-0 | .400 | 19-22-0 | .463 | |
| Pitt | 6-15-0 | .286 | 14-24-0 | .368 | |
| Duke | 5-15-0 | .250 | 22-18-0 | .550 |
ACCT Seeding as of Today
- Louisville 19-2
- Miami 15-6
- FSU 14-7
- Clemson 11-9
- Notre Dame 11-10
- Carolina 10-10
- NC State 9-11
- Boston College 9-11
- Georgia Tech 9-12
- UVa 9-12
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Wake 9-12
Virginia Tech 8-12
We’ll be talking more about ACCT seeding in the coming weeks of course, as well as a refresher course on the pool/round robin tournament format overall for anyone that needs it.
