As the calendar turns, so does the Pack

Earlier this week I asked the question What’s the problem with Pack basketball? and we discovered the difference between the wins and losses wasn’t as simple of hey we are just playing worse. What was revealed was in the losses while on offense the Pack was still shooting the ball the same and the same FTRate but they were turning the ball over more and grabbing a smaller percentage of Offensive Rebounds (OR%). On defense the Pack allowed a higher eFG% and OR%. In addition to these differences we also see during State’s Wins they played at a much higher tempo. This article is meant to compliment the previous one as we are going to take a historical look at the Gottfried tenure at NC State and breakdown how the Pack has performed during the 3 separate (but not equal) parts to the basketball season: Pre-conference regular season (preseason), Conference season, Postseason. We’ll identify if there are any trends from one part of the season to the next and if those trends carry over from one year to the next. We’ll dig down into Tempo Free Stats looking at raw efficiency numbers as well as the Four Factors. Finally we’ll use this to help us determine if we can make any reasonable predictions as how the Pack will play moving forward during the current season into conference play. Let’s get started…

NOTE: This article was written prior to the Pitt game, results since then do not change the historical context of the article.

Since the previous article focused in on the pre-acc season (games prior to January 1st) let’s look at offense and defense during this time:

State has always been very efficient on offense during the “preseason” but that raw efficiency has been on a steady decline since the final season of unfulfilled expectations left by Leslie/Brown/Wood/Howell, where tempo was up and they couldn’t miss. Notice Offensive Rebounding has been consistent for the last 3 years while TO% is returning to previous level (which is still really good) and the FT Rate is up/down each year.

Defense shows a raw efficiency with a sharp drop this year attributed to making the opposition miss more shots and limiting second shots but as discussed in the previous article that’s not the case in the losses against stiffer competition.

You can look here and here if you’d like to see the season to season breakdown of the conference games and the post season games, respectively. In a nutshell the defense is getting steadily worse each conference season and post season.

Time to compare each season individually and breakdown how the Pack performs in each of the 3 subseasons.

Looking at the 11/12 season we see the following:

Offensively the raw efficiency took a dip from the pre to regular to post season. With the increase in competition I’d image the adjusted numbers would be similar between pre and acc seasons. The dip in eFG% and OR% is indicative of stiffer competition but note there is a drop off in production. Defensively there wasn’t much change between pre and acc season but the Pack buckled down during the postseason and improved their defense dramatically, through creating tougher shots and defensive rebounding, which aided in their unexpected runs during the ACCT & NCAAT. HINT HINT!!!! A Good Defense is NECESSARY.

During the 12/13 season the Pack took another dip in Offense when moving from the preseason to the acc season before rebounding during the postseason. The downside to this season and a contributor to why they couldn’t reclaim that magic was the poor defense that got worse from preseason to acc and continued into the postseason. HINT HINT!!!! A Good Defense is NECESSARY.

Finally, the 13/14 season mirrored the 12/13 where the offense dipped when moving from the preseason to the acc season before rebounding during the postseason. Again the downside to this season was the severe reduction in defense, even worse than in 12/13. Both the 12/13 and 13/14 postseason defenses saw teams scoring easier while State forced less turnovers. HINT HINT!!! A Good Defense is NECESSARY.

If you’d like to see it broken down by wins and losses then you can click here.

To tie this altogether, we’ve seen how during the past 3 seasons the offense is less efficient, struggling to get their shot and rebound as well on offense. While on defense the Pack isn’t as good at forcing bad shots, defensive rebounding, or forcing turnovers. If this has been the case for each of the last 3 seasons then the logical conclusion should be the same for the current season. Now does that translate into highly efficient performances against the dregs of the ACC and gouging your eyes out displays against the upper echelon? Who knows but if you’re expecting this team to improve as the calendar turns to January then history is against you.

Finally…A Good Defense is NECESSARY. For NC State to move from a Hubba Bubba team to a Championship one they have to improve on defense and that defense is not going to come from stealing the ball and creating turnovers, that’s just not Gottfried and I don’t see that ever changing. Since creating turnovers won’t be one of the 4 areas on defense that the Pack will be good at then they must be good at the other 3, creating bad shots/defensive rebounding/not sending the other team to the free throw line so much. We’ve seen in the past 2 games hints of these 3 but only against Pitt have we seen all 3 for a full game. While the Pack is trying to improve on defense, they can’t lose their edge in offensive efficiency either, that will spell doom for a team learning to play defense.

About 1.21 Jigawatts

Class of '98, Mechanical Engineer, State fan since arriving on campus and it's been a painful ride ever since. I live by the Law of NC State Fandom, "For every Elation there is an equal and opposite Frustration."

Mark Gottfried NCS Basketball

Home Forums As the calender turns, so does the Pack

Viewing 24 posts - 51 through 74 (of 74 total)
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  • #68606
    choppack1
    Participant

    Can we all agree that with the results gott has had so far he’s at least earned a 5th year?

    That said, his teams do play a frustrating brand of basketball.. But I am not sure there is any other kind when you gravitate to the bubble every year.

    It did take Bennett 5 years to complete his total turnaround @ uva. This of course doesn’t mean gott will turn the corner – only that he could and deserves a shot to try.

    #68607
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    I will let this season play out, and the next one, really. Before making any definitive judgments. I think MG’s done enough to deserve that much.

    #68608
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    Gott has done a good job here but like many I’m not exactly seeing a big improvement over where we’ve been and where we are. Perhaps he’ll surprise us.

    #68609
    Rick
    Keymaster

    Rick, that can loom for sure. But I also have this crazy ass notion as to why people think that recruiting has “slowed.”

    I certainly hope you are right but he had averaged two a year.

    #68610
    Rick
    Keymaster

    CD,
    That would make sense though.

    #68612
    1.21 Jigawatts
    Keymaster

    I’m not saying fire MG after this season, definitely not without a guaranteed proven step up, just looking at trends and asking questions as to why we have those trends, what could possibly be behind those trends, then finally speculating as to how the problem areas could be fixed. Any healthy organization does this type of self analysis yearly if not quarterly and if you don’t then you won’t be an organization for very long.

    MG is pretty consistent at producing bubble teams and as such if things don’t improve then that is exactly what State will continue to receive. Just as VaWolf examines teams in relation to the RPI and how that translates into NCAAT appearances we can also take the time to review our teams to look at improvement or decline through the years and within those years.

    While we are still only approaching the halfway point of year 4, a goal should be set for the 5 year milestone and if that goal hasn’t been reached then what should happen. Continuing to sneak into the tournament and exiting on the first weekend after year 5 may provide cover by the media but is that enough for NC State?

    #68613
    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    … CD,
    That would make sense though….

    I know it’s cold up in the Triangle…
    … and there was a Full Moon last night…

    but WTF is going on around here…
    Rick is telling Mr. Dog he’s making sense??

    Hell Freezing Over...

    What you drinking Cuz ??

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #68614
    Rick
    Keymaster

    It’s a new nicer Rick

    #68615
    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    ^Bartender… We GOTT to have a round for everybody dressed in RED and WHITE…
    … and put it on my tab…

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #68616
    packbackr04
    Participant

    Am I crazy to want Debbie to be pro active and get Archie in here next yr?

    #68617
    wufpup76
    Keymaster

    Can we all agree that with the results gott has had so far he’s at least earned a 5th year?

    I can, based on overall program results. Basically I agree w/ what Bjd stated above.

    That said, taking a look at trends, recruiting, and all other ‘daytight compartments’ of the program is good, too (confession: I laughed out loud and spit up when I typed ‘daytight compartments’ … yep, I’m that guy). All that stuff cost Tob his job.

    It’s a new nicer Rick

    Applebee’s has that effect on people 😉

    #68618
    Greywolf
    Participant

    For what’s is worth …
    there were more than a few plays back in 72-76 that Stormin’ Norman had me and others shaking our heads at…

    Probably a good thing. If we had understood what Norm was doing, I’d be worried.

    #68619
    choppack1
    Participant

    Gott did have 2 season of 12-4…that ain’t bad a’tall.

    I said in another post, sooner or later, he’ll slide off the bubble, the big question is which way.

    Interesting thing about Bennett at WSU – his first season was his best. The shine on that diamond had kind of faded. Granted – Gott has a much longer track record – but I’m glad to see a consensus.

    I think we all like easy choices…It would be nice to have an “easy decision” after year 5 in the positive.

    I also think it’s pretty difficult to find the kind of athlete that’s going to succeed in this conference. If you look at Sendek’s first few classes – they were much more athletic than what he put on the court his last 5 years. He went for a smarter basketball player – and got on the right side of the bubble and conference.

    I think Gott’s kids are plenty smart (based on interviews) – but basketball IQ – that’s another thing…and that requires ALOT of scouting.

    #68620
    Jediwolf
    Participant

    Three trips to the big dance. How can you argue that after what we have been through. All of yall need to do a reality check on where we have been. I think all of you would have been satisfied with that four years ago.

    GO PACK! GO GOTT!

    #68621
    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    [It’s] Probably a good thing. If we had understood what Norm was doing, I’d be worried…

    I ain’t 100% sure Norm understood what he was doing … He would get so fired up, esp. against Dean and Lefty… I’m pretty sure it all mashed up in a blur….

    … basketball IQ – that’s another thing…and that requires ALOT of scouting…

    See here’s where perhaps… a lot of fans get off track at the very beginning of their thought processes…

    Fact is that so few kids coming out of High School have a decent BBIQ… if one did… you wouldn’t have to scout for it… because everybody would know it…

    What scouts need to find more of are good kids with good fundamental athletic skills who can learn quickly… to go with a few of those kids with all the stars… the two mixed correctly make each other better and that’s what makes a Team.

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #68622
    rthomas44
    Participant

    It’s a good thing that D YOW is in charge instead of anyone who has posted above. We have a great coach and assistants and everyone else has an opinion!

    #68623
    choppack1
    Participant

    Bill – I can’t really disagree with that statement.

    Ilian Emtimov’s and Julius Hodge’s are pretty rare. Like you said, the big issue is whether you can take kids who are smart – and turn them into high IQ ballers.

    UVa is doing it right now. The initial returns here are and in Gott’s work @ Bama are worrisome – but he deserves time. Different league – different opponents.

    I’d also say discipline is a huge component. And while I’ve seen pretty good effort the last 2 years – the discipline has been another story. Again – this can improve – so really, it’s an academic exercise. We’ll look around year 5 and see where we are. I have no clue which direction we’re headed or where we’ll be….I can see it all going any of 3 ways.

    #68625
    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    chop..

    aren’t discipline, concentration, practiced reads and responses all part of the same thing?

    Musicians, athletes, actors, salesman … all the really good ones GOTT it…
    It’s the one common denominator…

    and I ain’t talking about Brain Surgeons, Nuclear Engineers and Astro-biologists… just regular guys…

    Everybody has their ways of letting the steam off ..
    but you GOTT to learn how to be disciplined about that too…

    BB guns are not the answer… at least not inside the City limits…

    I heard that a lot of successful NFL quarterbacks are really football nerds/geeks and might be confused with CPAs and then there’s one Joe Namath every decade or so…

    (For you younger readers, I left J.Mansiel out because you ain’t an NFL quarterback until you win a NFL football game)…
    ————–

    Back to college roundball… and discipline…

    Anya and Meeks both coming out of High School at 360 plus says a lot more about the quality of their coaches and their environment than it says about each kid… Once in the system, they both found it in themselves to lose 60-80 lbs…

    If that doesn’t prove discipline can be learned, acquired, instilled… check out Paris Island… they wrote the book…

    Once you GOTT it … you don’t lose it either…

    The problem is that both kids had to spend a year of more doing what they should have done in the tenth grade… and since time is relatively exponential and not linear … the effect doesn’t show up until their senior year or later when they eligibility is exhausted…

    See, the fourth year is the lost year, not the first one…

    Now since I’m on a roll here…

    Want to step up our recruiting game…

    Get Gott & Company to set up a one day clinics … we Gott about six coaches … 6 clinics for each Coach… April to September… at 36 different North Carolina middle schools (that’s right – middle schools – to show and talk with the 8-9th kids about what they need to do… and get them to invite their older brothers and friends, of course …

    That’s probably a NCAA violation or two but think about it…

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #68656
    MP
    Participant

    Alright, it all makes good sense to me, I’m on board. Let’s do it!

    LOL. Awesome post.

    #68670
    PittsburghPackFan
    Participant

    I will let this season play out, and the next one, really. Before making any definitive judgments. I think MG’s done enough to deserve that much.

    Anyone know when MG’s contract is up? I think it’s after year 7, but I don’t remember. I really feel like if we give him 6-7 years, that’s when we are going to see the fruits of his labor.

    I think when MG got here he looked up and down the bench, and saw very little he could work with. There was some talent, but some dangerous egos with it and no depth on the bench to speak of.

    I think after the first two year’s guys were gone, MG started going after a different kind of animal: Good physical builds and team-mates first, talent 2nd. He recruited last year’s Freshmen to be guys who could contribute as glue/role/depth/bench players if nothing else. If one panned out as a star – even better! This has mostly worked, as there were 6-8 guys last year who could play almost interchangeably in any game (outside of Buckets). As you all know, this had not been the case his first 2 years. This year there are 10 players who can come in. That’s good depth.

    Last year’s Freshman were Building Blocks, the foundation for the future, while this year’s Freshmen are leaning a bit more to the talented side. MG had the Glue/Role players, now he’s bringing in the talented ones. This is not meant to mean that Abu and the twins are not good team-mates or that the 2nd year players aren’t talented, because they are.

    I am trying to look at this like a solid 5-year plan that is on schedule. Any other takers?

    I am looking at Abu to be the Big that starts scoring, and makes the Offense take off at the end of the year. I feel like that is the main missing component. Can someone remind me: Did Calvin contribute consistently all year long in 2011-12, or did he come on in the last 10 games or so?

    Sorry for the TL;DR. In summation, Rome wasn’t built in a day.

    /Go Panthers!

    #68680
    PittsburghPackFan
    Participant

    Here is some info from Leslie’s 2011-12 season if anyone is still reading this thread and/or cares:

    I only compiled averages for points and rebounds (it’s all I have time for at the moment). I also broke it up into groupings of games to see trends.

    I apologize for any format trouble:

    1st 6 games AVG: 12.8pts 6rebs .571 FG%
    Next 6 games AVG: 13.2pts 6.3rebs .500 FG%

    Start of Conference Play
    1st 4 games AVG: 12.3pts 6.2rebs .568 FG%
    Next 4 games AVG: 12.3pts 6.5rebs .381 FG%

    Next 4 games AVG: 16pts 8.3rebs .472 FG%
    Last 4 games AVG: 20.3pts 10.5rebs .588 FG%

    ACC Tournament AVG: 17.3pts 10.7rebs .697 FG%
    NCAA tournament AVG: 15.7pts 5.7rebs .459 FG%

    This is kinda what I remembered, where CJL was pretty consistent over the first 20 games (12 non-conf, 8 conf) with averages of 12.8 points and 6 rebounds, hitting on .505 FG%.

    Then he turned it on/figured it out:

    Over the last 14 games he had averages of 17.4 pts and 8.9 rebounds, hitting .546 FG%.

    Imagine where we would be if Abu can turn it on/figure it out enough where he can contribute 12 pts and 6 rebounds! This offense would be flying!

    #68704
    Rick
    Keymaster

    6-7 years?
    I think we will know at this time next year what err have.

    #68723
    ancsu87
    Participant

    So the teams get better as the season unfolds (outside of the pre-season top 10 head case team).

    #68563
    Prowling Woofie
    Participant

    Exactly, Zaphod – I remember the first time I told my youth team that a moving pick was the fault of the ball-handler, not the pick setter. They looked at me like I’d slapped ’em. If the dribbler runs tight enough off the picker, there’s no way a moving pick gets called.

    Unfortunately, it’s not just teenage boys that miss this concept… Embarrassing that Div I scholarship athletes can’t get it – or aren’t taught it !

Viewing 24 posts - 51 through 74 (of 74 total)
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