(12) NC STATE vs (5) SAINT LOUIS Preview

Time: 7:20 pm
Location: Orlando, FL
TV: TNT
Announcers: Brian Anderson, Dan Bonner and Kristine Leahy

The Pack is in the Round of 64 after defeating the Xavier Musketeers 74-59 in the First Four match in Dayton, OH. The Wolfpack put together one of their best all-around performances this season by getting almost a complete team effort in multiple facets on both ends of the court. Sure the Pack has been more efficient on offense this season but increasing their performance on defense just a little, it more than made up for any drop off in offensive efficiency. Anthony Barber was sick and it effected his time on the court and Warren was saddled with two quick fouls at the beginning of the game which slowed him down but everyone stepped up until he was able to find his grove. With the win the Pack has moved on to Orlando, FL to face the Saint Louis Billikens.

Getting to know them

The Billikens have had a tremendous year in the A-10, jumping out to a 25-2 (12-0) record, with the 2 losses being a 63-57 loss to Wisconsin on a neutral court and a 70-65 loss to undefeated Wichita State at home. Then something happened, St. Louis lost at home to lowly Duquesne and stumbled the rest of the way to a 26-6 (13-3) record, including a first round exit in the A-10 tournament to St. Bonaventure. St. Louis starts 5 seniors, who are in their third NCAAT but doesn’t go very deep into their bench very often. They aren’t a very tall team either, outside of a couple of 6-11 guys, they top out at 6-6.

The Billikens strength is in their defense. It’s not shutdown, low scoring type of defense, more of a make you work extra hard for your points, make you less efficient to compensate for their own low offensive efficiency. Little things like limiting the three, good defensive rebounding to prevent second chance points, forcing turnovers, and not sending the opposition to the line much.

Probable Starters
#5 Jordair Jet (6-1 215 SR) Guard – Jett has an amazing Assist Rate of 34.4%, which ranks #23 in the nation but with having the ball so much means he also has a lot of opportunities to turn the ball over, TORate 20.2%. Jett doesn’t shoot the three, only have 34 3fga this season but he does have a lot of two’s, eFG 50%, and draws a lot of fouls, 5.8 per 40, so he’s likely driving a lot to the basket. Oh yeah and he’s the A-10 Player of the Year, so he’s got that going for him.

#11 Mike McCall (6-0 180 SR) Guard – McCall is the shooting guard and he’s been pretty good this year, 109 ORtg, shoots as many 3’s as 2’s, an eFG 51%, and good at FT’s, though he doesn’t get to the line much. Can’t leave him alone on the perimeter.

#30 Jake Barnett (6-5 205 SR) Forward – Barnett is the least effective scoring option of the starters. He only has a 90 ORtg, barely shooting any 2’s, mainly living on the perimeter jacking 3’s and not that great at 30%. He’s okay at defensive rebounding 12.2% but has a tendancy to turn the ball over at 19% TORate.

#21 Dwayne Evans (6-6 230 SR) Forward – Evan has okay numbers, a 103 ORtg, 50% eFG (doesn’t shoot the 3), but is good at rebounding 8% OR and 17% DR, and drawing fouls to get to the line where he shoots 74%.

#51 Rob Loe (6-11 245 SR) Center – Loe is the match up nightmare for the Pack, he’s taken 123 2FGA (.593) and 115 3FGA (.296). Because he shoots so many 3’s his Offensive Rebounding isn’t that good but he makes up for it on defense where he’s grabbing 16% DR and Blocks 4.7% of shots (#238 nationally). This is where I think we need Washington guarding him on the perimeter and switching up when he goes inside. Did I forget to mention Loe is from New Zealand? Battle of the Bigs from Down Under.

Bench
#2 Austin McBroom (5-9 165 SO), #54 John Manning (6-11 240 JR), #1 Grandy Glaze (6-6 235 JR)

Glaze was getting a decent amount of playing time off the bench for most of the season but during their losing streak his time has been almost nonexistent. He’s a good rebounder and only plays around a the basket but turns the ball over quite a lot. McBroom has seen his minutes increase of late though that hasn’t meant he’s playing great, in fact it’s either good or awful. McBroom shoots a lot of 3’s, understandable for his size, and is their best long distance shooter (.355) along with McCall. Expect to see Manning more then he usually plays simply because the Pack has the size, just don’t expect a lot out of him.

Who has the Advantage?

NOTE: This is a look at what both teams have done over the course of the season, not how they have been playing for the past few weeks. Trust me I’d love to restrict it to just the last 10 games but that would require me to do that myself which I simply don’t have the time, and I still wouldn’t know where they’d rank nationally.

This is a matchup of State’s best against St. Louis’ best and the Billikens defense has been better then the Pack’s offense. One thing I noticed in the Xavier game, who was another team that was good at defensive rebounding, was the Musketeers limited State to only 20% Offensive Rebounding which is about 15% below their season average.

Now we have the matchup of facepalms vs facepalms. It’s best to avert your eyes when the ball moves to this end of the court. Hipster Cat needs to drop the pigtails and return to his hip ways.

Predictions

KenPom likes Saint Louis by 2 points.
Sagarin likes Saint Louis by 3.3 points.
Vegas opened up with Saint Louis -2.5.

Its extremely difficult to know what’s going to happen. Will both teams continue how they’ve been playing over the last month? Or will one or both revert to their old ways? It’s difficult to tell. One thing the Billikens have an advantage in is not only a 5 starting seniors but multiple years of NCAAT experience. The Pack has the advantage of already playing a game and getting the first half jitters out of the way. The Billikens have TONS of bulletin board material since everyone is on the Pack bandwagon and predicting an upset.

Just as everyone will wear the same clothes that they had on Tuesday, watch the game from the same spot, drink the same drinks, I’m going to continue my official pick be against the Pack. I refuse to be the bringer of bad mojo to this team. So I say St. Louis by 1.

And who knows, maybe the Pack’s new good luck charm and several posters new crush, Kristine Leahy, will stick with the Pack for as long as they are in the tournament.

HEADLINES

This is a great article by Giglio, way too much to highlight.

Joe Giglio (N&O)
Gottfried stays positive, pushes right buttons for Wolfpack’s NCAA success

Ryan Tice (TheWolfpacker.com)
In-depth look at Saint Louis

TheWolfpacker.com
Q&A: Saint Louis looking forward to facing Pack

Russ Wood (TheWolfpacker.com)
Audio: Mark Gottfried, players breaks down SLU

Fred Goodall (AP)
NC State-Saint Louis Preview

PackPride.com
Previewing Saint Louis

Tom Timmermann (Stltoday.com)
Trending down, Billikens are undaunted

Bernie Miklasz (stltoday.com)
It’s up to the ‘Sons of Majerus’

Tom Timmermann (Stltoday.com)
Loe has come a long way with SLU

Tom Timmermann (Stltoday.com)
N.C. State takes whirlwind path to play SLU

About 1.21 Jigawatts

Class of '98, Mechanical Engineer, State fan since arriving on campus and it's been a painful ride ever since. I live by the Law of NC State Fandom, "For every Elation there is an equal and opposite Frustration."

13-14 Basketball

Home Forums (12) NC STATE vs (5) SAINT LOUIS Preview

Viewing 25 posts - 801 through 825 (of 897 total)
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  • #49046
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    That foul was all on TJ. Granted, he was trying to win the game, but plenty of time left for someone else to foul. That is on TJ and only TJ.

    And that is why coaches need to be one step ahead and let everyone know, including TJ, that TJ does not foul. The top coaches do this.

    #49047
    Rick
    Keymaster

    Are the coaching decisions always right? No, sometimes they dont work. But I guarantee Gott knows more about the game and our team than any of us, probably all of us combined. My point is, if WE are all such great coaches, why are we not coaching?

    So your arguement is we cannot possibly discuss the outcome unless we are a better coach than Gott?
    Then why do you feel you know enough to make excuses for his performance? How can you possibly know those things are a facotr unless you are as good a coach as Gott? Or do you only think someone who says positives things knows enough to talk about coaching?

    #49048
    Rick
    Keymaster

    That foul was all on TJ. Granted, he was trying to win the game, but plenty of time left for someone else to foul. That is on TJ and only TJ.

    And that is why coaches need to be one step ahead and let everyone know, including TJ, that TJ does not foul. The top coaches do this.

    Why was he even in the game?

    This team has had trouble closing out teams all year. The only big game they won they gave the other team 49 shots top win it in the last 9 seconds.

    #49049
    pakfanistan
    Participant

    I’ve never seen a team as tired as we looked last night.

    I had a bad feeling with about 5 minutes to go in regulation when STL was shooting free throws and all of our guys were leaning over at the waist, straight legged, grabbing their shorts.

    I can’t comment on the coaching job, but I know from first hand experience that when you’re tired, all of the things you know you should be doing go right out the window.

    I think the best way to sum up what happened last night is….

    Fatigue makes cowards of us all

    #49050
    maverick_ncsu
    Participant

    I feel like I should add that I’m not anti-Gott. I like a lot of the recruiting he’s been able to do considering where our basketball program has been. I like some of the exposure he’s given to our program. I just don’t think he can take us up another level. I’ll be happy to be wrong. There are just some guys you listen to in interviews and watch on the sidelines and you can just get a sense as to whether they are a guy that you believe can take you where you want to go. A lot of guys interview badly (public speaking and all) and you still can tell they know their stuff. I just don’t get that when I listen and watch GOTT. Never have. He is what we thought when he came, good not great. We were better than 10th in the ACC this year, but what do you think we’ll be projected next year after Warren leaves? At some point, the trajectory has to change. I like that we are bottom-feeders, but not sure he can get us over the hump. Again, I’ll be happy to be proven wrong and will root for GOTT and the team like I always have….even though it hurts a lot of the time.

    #49051
    Rick
    Keymaster

    The team played 2 games in 5 days. If they are tired from that then our conditioning needs to be addressed.

    #49052
    MISTA WOLF
    Participant

    I felt like my dog died last night. I didn’t cuss, I didn’t break sh*t, I didn’t sacrifice a State shirt to the flame (like I did one night in college). I just sat there shocked, appalled, in disbelief, in what I was witnessing on the screen. I woke up this morning to watch the game again. Last night was a blur because of the ending, the drinking and the emotion I experienced on the couch. I wanted to see what happened and figure out what transpired.

    Here we go:

    1) I have never seen our team play sh*t defense like they did for the last 3:30 of the game. We allowed them to roll the ball up the court to save time, instead of pressuring them and making them burn the clock up as soon as it was entered into play. Once they got the ball across half court our guys weren’t sticking their man, they didnt rotate in the zone and they didn’t hedge the screens. We were lost. SLU shot 8 shots in that last 3:30 while allowing less than 7 seconds drip off the clock while doing so. I won’t tell you how many they made. That is irrelevant.
    2) Offensively no one wanted the ball in their hands. Our best player even ran away from the ball. Why I don’t know(I do but you form your own conclusion.) Yes we missed a bunch of free throws, TJ especially, but regardless, he has got to be the man going to the line. His unwillingness to do so reflected poorly on him and I think it made the rest of the team uneasy as well. This team would only go as far as TJ would take us. No one stepped up to be alpha last night in the end.
    3) I’m going to differ on this than others. When Crews called a timeout after a made basket to set up the press Gottfried DID counter. He knew they would be pressing and he set up the press break. What happened was we got the ball in, we were fouled, we missed FT’s, they scored, they pressed, we were fouled, we missed FT’s, they scored, ETC. We then buckled under the pressure that we created ourselves. I believe the guys don’t shoot FT’s in practice as much as they should and that it is something that is taking for granted. We suck at FT’s. As a team you should shoot 75 to 80% from the line. We were exposed last night. Props to Jim Crews for doing the exposing.
    4) Lastly, and shortly, you play to win always. We played not to lose in the end and that is exactly what happened and deserved.

    The Archie situation is a dammed if you dammed if you don’t. No one will ever be happy with Gottfried OR will no one ever be keeping him at this stage. The only thing I have to offer is if you switch the i and the r in his name…You do the rest.

    A buddy of mine, an uppity up at Wake, says Archie is one of the coaches they will pursue.

    #49054
    pakfanistan
    Participant

    The team played 2 games in 5 days. If they are tired from that then our conditioning needs to be addressed.

    I can’t comment on why, only what I saw.

    For all I know it could be nutrition, sleep deprivation (they did arrive in Orlando at 3:30 in the morning), conditioning, or a combination of all three.

    From watching, I don’t think they folded, I think they bonked.

    #49055
    Whiteshoes67
    Participant

    I’d vote for youth and inexperience over fatigue as the big factor late. The signs of fatigue there the entire game. Warren and Turner looked a step slow to me all night, and yet we still had them outgunned. 5 games in 8 days, with a flight in the wee hours, ain’t no joke. Ball handling against pressure has been a problem all year. Defensive lapses have been a problem all year. Free throw shooting has been average to below-average all year.

    #49058
    TheAliasTroll
    Participant

    we sure nc stated all over ourselves last night

    some kind of divine force intervened for some reason

    still quite a bit nauseous this morning

    #49059
    Whiteshoes67
    Participant

    Poor Warren looked visibly devastated last night. In shock. I wish him the best. Heck of a season. Kids like that don’t come along often.

    #49061
    triadwolf
    Participant

    I’m not going to get into the blame game; the loss sucked, it was epic and we all know that NC State should be right below UL on the bracket for tomorrows game. But everyone needs to keep in mind the youth of this team and how far they came this year; you can question some in game coaching and points of emphasis, but overall this season was a GREAT coaching job by Gott.

    I kind of laugh at people who throw out practicing free throws during the season. You don’t become a better free throw shooter at team practice, you get better 10 PM in the gym by yourself in the middle of June, July, Aug… After JV leaves Gott has only his players left. If you consider the amount of improvement JV and TJ Warren had over the off-season as an indicator, I believe we’ll see drastic improvement in this team next year. I think Gott is recruiting players that want to work and improve; these guys just have a different feel compared to the previous crew. If they put in the off-season work to improve we have no worries going forward.

    We’ll know how serious these guys are come Nov. 2014.

    #49062
    Whiteshoes67
    Participant

    btw, if you were like me and couldn’t sleep after that one, that Louisville-Manhattan game was a heck of a game. If I’m a program lookign for a coach, I give that Manhattan coach a serious look.

    #49063
    erichack
    Participant

    Guys/Ladies,

    Clearly its an emotional time to discuss the program. Painful loss last night without a doubt. However, after some prayer and reflection, this was a good year with the players we had and with respect to their individual development. I am certain the experience these guys had at the end of the year will go a long way towards another successful year next year.

    As for last night, this loss is clearly on the players. There is no other way to look at this, speaking as someone who has played before (high school). We hit our free throws we win the game. Its that simple. I don’t care what their individual percentages are, when its crunch time you have got to want the ball and the opportunity to put the game AWAY. That’s what it means to be a player. You cant hide on a bball court.

    The only other thing that I can see from last nights game is the lack of a crunch time leader at point. We really needed a ball handler to take over the game late. That’s an attitude that says give me the ball and I will bring this home. That typically comes from experience, so our youth at point hurt us for sure. TJ is the clear leader of the team; however, he was simply not in rhythm last night. He needed another player to take over the game last night. Ideally, that is the responsibility of the point guard. He is the floor general. He is the calming element of a bball team.

    With that said, I really enjoyed watching this team play this year. I am offering a critique of the players, but I want to be sure and say they ALL had a great year. I am very much looking forward to next year. The program IS heading in the right direction. We have a good coach who I believe is getting better as well.

    Take care guys. I love the passion! Remember, we are all on the same team.

    E

    #49064
    Fastback68
    Participant

    I don’t know where else to say it. Thanks TJ and Vandy for playing in the red and white. Thanks SFN posters. Good Luck Pack9. For me, it’s time to drink Wild Turkey and almost time to kill long beards. Damn you summer. Go Pack.

    #49065
    Mike
    Participant

    No Rick, I dont think we should not comment if we dont know more. I am just saying we should not be bashing the coach. We were not out-coached last night to the point it cost us the game. Crews probably is a good coach (he played for Knight) but we did not execute down the stretch. Flat out, we did not execute, and THAT was why we lost.

    #49066
    MISTA WOLF
    Participant

    I kind of laugh at people who think FT’s is something that shouldn’t be practiced year round.

    #49067
    Bloody Fourth
    Participant

    First time poster here. Grad from 03, had Archie in a few classes in 99. I saw an interview with him the other day, and believe me, he doesn’t sound the same as 99, he used to talk like a wanna be thug. He is well spoken now, and comes from a family of coaches. I think he is definitely up and coming, passionate, alum, and ready. I had his wife in a class, my god, Morgan is a true beauty(she ran track). If Archie can over achieve on the court coaching, like he did in landing a beautiful wife then my god, let’s hire him. Its a shame that it probably won’t work out, as yow sticks to her guns and will let it ride. I think Gott is a smooth media talker, but I don’t think he has the killer instinct that Roy or K have, hell, those guys would choke small animals to preserve a win, I just don’t see it.
    Hey, 3 tourny appearances in 3 years is great, but damn, that’s not all we want.
    Where was our beast Anya late in the game last night when we needed some defense and passion? On the bench.
    I hope gott proves us all wrong, and wins big! But, some things must addressed.
    OH yeah, there were a lot of people throwing Virginias coach under the bus earlier this year saying they’d rather have a high scoring team like ours, than a boring old defensive team like UVA. I will take defensive consistency any day over this.
    I do love wolfpack sports and we will never give up hope!

    #49068
    Mike
    Participant

    Well stated Eric +1000

    #49069
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    I believe we’ll see drastic improvement in this team next year.

    I sure hope so. I have ni reason to believe we won’t, but if we don’t, it will be ugly.

    Keep in mind it is a sliding scale. Warren leaves for the NBA. Vandy gone. New group of young guys to integrate. Basically, an all new team. Who steps up to lead? Do we lose anyone else? How much do we improve? Is there chemistry?

    And what is often never discussed is what is happening around the league. Duke, UNC, Cuse and Lville aren’t going anywhere. What happens with UVA and Pitt and Clemson and FSU? I’m just not sure we take more steps forward than back in relation to our competitors. We might, but I don’t know.

    #49070
    triadwolf
    Participant

    I didn’t say you don’t practice free throws year around. But 15 minutes of practice each day during the season typically won’t result in a large improvement. It is one phase of the game that a coach can only spend a limited amount of time on. My point is that players need to take it upon themselves to work on their game outside of team practice. It is no coincidence most good/great players make major strides from one season to the next. Players have to want to individually improve and that takes place outside the normal hours of scheduled practice – year around.

    #49071
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    OH yeah, there were a lot of people throwing Virginias coach under the bus earlier this year saying they’d rather have a high scoring team like ours, than a boring old defensive team like UVA. I will take defensive consistency any day over this.

    I remember that, too. It took Bennett a little time but the proof is in the pudding. He’s good, and will be a thorn in our side for years to come. He could be a lifer there.

    I made the comment earlier in the year that K, Roy, Jimmy B and Ricky P will be retiring within the next 5 years. Will we be positioned to take advantage of the opportunity? I do not know. Virginia, yea they know.

    #49072
    maverick_ncsu
    Participant

    ^ and that’s another reason to nail down a good coach within the next few years. If Gott is the guy, then great. But once those jobs come open, we’ll need to already know who we have.

    #49073
    MISTA WOLF
    Participant

    Gotcha Triad. Didn’t mean to come across as an AHOLE. I’m just bitter and pissed. I coach high school ball and I know how valuable it is to shoot FT’s. We lost several games because of FT’s.

    #49074
    Whiteshoes67
    Participant

    ^Agree about PG and floor general absence late. I think that’s still a problem for Gott. It’s the QB on the court. Nice to have two but how well does it work to shuffle?

    Based on my observation, early in the year, teams saw that we struggled to shoot it from outside (prior to Turner’s insertion in lineup). Lewis didn’t make many either, but he wasn’t able to penetrate the zone. Cat was a better defender, better at beating his man or penetrating the zone, and he got more PT. But his decision making also was that of a FR and he turned it over too much. Insert Lewis, who, along with the better play of the bigs and improved shooting of Turner, helped us crack the zone.

    But the basic problem against solid man-to-man teams was still evident. Lewis, imo, struggled against really good man teams. He’s a facilitator, great passer, good ball handler, but he’s susceptible to traps and pressure. When the shot clock is winding down, the better creator is Cat.

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