NCSU basketball by the numbers

09-10 Basketball107

I compiled statistics from several years to get an idea how this years team is doing compared to previous teams. I have also included numbers from the middle of the current year so we can see how ACC play changes the numbers. For fun, I added Sendek’s last year just to see how they compare.

I wanted to know if we are seeing any improvement from the basketball team. I am not going to give a lot of commentary as I hope there will be some discussion on these numbers and what they mean.

rankings

Here are averages for the categories.

comparison

Lastly here is the record comparison

record

About Rick

1992 and 2002 graduate from NCSU. Born and raised an NCSU fan. I remember the good ol' days and they weren't in the last 20 years.

09-10 Basketball

107 Responses to NCSU basketball by the numbers

  1. VaWolf82 02/23/2010 at 5:05 PM #

    It’s not much, but it’s nice to see the TO margin move from the bottom to the middle of the conference. Unfortunately, that small improvement gets overshadowed by pitiful numbers on both scoring offense and scoring defense.

  2. spanky 02/24/2010 at 6:53 AM #

    I was going to say “it really puts things in perspective of just how ugly it is…” but who am I kidding… I’ve seen the team, I already had great perspective of just how ugly it is…

    Oh! and great stuff, Rick!!
    (sorry bout that! very early this morning!)

  3. VaWolf82 02/24/2010 at 7:39 AM #

    It’s not my work.

  4. Rochester 02/24/2010 at 7:40 AM #

    If we just had a PG our rebounding margin would be way better than 12th. Without a good PG there’s no one to teach how to box out in practice.

    Most surprising number to me is that we’re 5th in asst./TO ratio. There must be a lot of turnovers going down around the ACC this year.

  5. Mr. Wuf 02/24/2010 at 7:49 AM #

    I think our rebounding margin is so low because of how poor of a shooting team we are. We basically miss an additional 5-7 shots every night, of which the majority of those misses are rebounded by the opposing team. Obviously you could argue also that our rebounds per game should be up which is valid, but overall this team is a poor rebounding team that relys too much on three point shooting to be successful. The other statistic that sucks is steals. We just do not create enough turnovers (the WF game as an exception).

  6. Rick 02/24/2010 at 7:57 AM #

    I was struck by how similar the mid year numbers are to the other years. We have not done well since ACC play started.

  7. RSP123 02/24/2010 at 8:13 AM #

    Good information to look at. My concern with Lowe is the inability to play consistent, tough defense which in turn the turnovers will create more opportunities on offense. Until this season, this has been Roy’s “bread and butter” for years: good athletes play good defense which results in more possessions thus more points. Say what you want to about Sendek his teams played tough defense (still do at ASU). Now Sendek’s refusal to play zone (he does now at ASU) and junk defenses was very frustrating to me. I guess for me it is simple, if you play good defense with good effort with good coaching – this will offset some of your offense and rebounding weaknesses. Thus, ultimately winning more games. For whatever reason Lowe and his teams have failed to do this consistently. I hope they will soon, because even with expected improved offense production next year – it is nothing without improvement in other facets of the game. Go Pack!

  8. LRM 02/24/2010 at 8:36 AM #

    “If we just had a PG our rebounding margin would be way better than 12th. Without a good PG there’s no one to teach how to box out in practice.”

    Rochester you’re on fire early this morning.

  9. Wulfpack 02/24/2010 at 8:38 AM #

    Proof that very little, if any, improvement has been made this year.

  10. Rick 02/24/2010 at 8:43 AM #

    I remember the talking points at the beginning of the year were “improvement” and “playing hard”.
    When I look at these numbers, I do not see either of these things.
    I guess that is why the talking points have changed to “wait until we get a PG/SG in here”

  11. Daily Update 02/24/2010 at 8:54 AM #

    Rick: Going into the year, I thought this was the least talented team in the history of me being a fan(1993~). We lost some of our best shooters and three of our best rebounders(Fells, McCauley,and Costner). I am not
    going to look up their assist numbers, but I bet they had a decent percentage of those as well last year.

    For the most part, this season has turned out like it was expected. We are arguably the worst team in the ACC and that was the expectation(some optimists thought we might not finish last, so the even those people weren’t predicting higher than 9th-11th based on how I interpreted those comments).

    Do you not think we will be improved next season in terms of our record?

    The backcourt will be deeper, more talented and also experienced with Mays/Wood/Javi. The front court is looking solid with T. Smith, R. Howell, D. Painter, Vandenberg, J. Davis and L. Cothron. Smith and Howell should give us a good combination relative to other ACC teams at C and PF and there is plenty of depth. Wood should play a lot better at the 3. Then there will be some combination of Harrow/Javi at PG and then Brown and Mays at the 2. Having seen Harrow and read about opinions of Brown from gurus I trust, I feel good about the backcourt. Easily our best backcourt since Herb’s last year (Atsur, Bennerman, Bethel).

    I know a lot of people have no hope for next year, but that roster is solid. I would say that is the most talented and balanced team we have had since Herb’s last year. Sid’s 2nd team might have had more talent, but it lacked guards.

  12. LRM 02/24/2010 at 8:54 AM #

    Rick, Sure is funny how that WTNY works isn’t it.

  13. Daily Update 02/24/2010 at 9:05 AM #

    An interesting discussion might be if NC State accepts a CBI or Collegeinsider bid this year. An NIT bid doesn’t seem likely (probably need 3 more wins at least) and we supposedly turned these other tournaments down in the past.

    IMO, you have to play if the hope is that you can make the NCAAs next year.

  14. Rochester 02/24/2010 at 9:05 AM #

    My problem with the “we’re the least talented team in the ACC” argument is that the only three teams we’ve beaten were all ranked at the time. Duke has only two ACC losses this season, we gave them one of those, and handily.

    I won’t try to argue that we have the talent to be at the top of the league, but if we have good enough talent to beat Duke (11-2), Wake (8-5), and FSU (7-5), surely we have good enough talent to be better than 3-10. We are 0-5 against teams with losing records in conference play.

    We should adopt a new slogan: The buck stops next year.

  15. newt 02/24/2010 at 9:07 AM #

    I’m not sure folks thought this team would improve over last year’s performance; there was more talk about “playing hard.”

    You can say that we’re on a steady decline or you can say that we’re in the valley caused by essentially punting two and probably three recruiting classes because of the ineffective coaching transition.

    There’s no reason to think we’d be better off this year without Costner and Fells – two top-25 guys coming out of high school. Only bitter people said that.

    Frankly, we underperformed more in 07-08 than we have this year. If I saw Fells, Hickson, and Costner coming in on paper, I’d think NCAA tourney easy, but then who was playing the point?

  16. VaWolf82 02/24/2010 at 9:09 AM #

    I’m not sure folks thought this team would improve over last year’s performance; there was more talk about “playing hard.”

    This must be your first time here this season. I got absolutely crucified when I said that I didn’t see any signs of improvement at the end of the non-conference schedule.

  17. Daily Update 02/24/2010 at 9:14 AM #

    I am stealing this from Grantwolf on Packpride:

    NCSU:

    Graduates: Horner, Degand
    Additions: Harrow 5*, Brown 5*, Cothron (verbal) 4*

    Elite talent coming in in the backcourt, coupled with Wood, Smith, Painter, Howell, Vandy, should make the Pack one of the middle to upper-middle teams next year.

    UNC:

    Graduates: D. Thompson, Ginyard
    Additions: Barnes, Bullock, Marshall

    UNC will be vastly improved, and likely picked to win the ACC, even if they experience some early-NBA attrition (Davis, Henson?)

    Duke:

    Graduates: Sheyer, Zoubek, L. Thomas
    Additions: Irving 5*, Thornton 4*, Hairston 4*

    Duke can’t help but take a step back, as nobody can replace what Sheyer does for this team. Still, they will be very good, and picked at the top of the ACC.

    Wake:

    Graduates: Smith, McFarland, Williams
    Additions: Desrosiers 4*, McKie 4*, Tabb 4*, Terrell 4*, Chennault 3*

    Aminu leaving early (if it happens) coupled with the losses of Smith, Williams, and McFarland, and Wake looks to take a large step back next year.

    Virginia:

    Graduates: Jonke, Baker, Meyinsee, Tat
    Additions: Johnson 4*, Harrell 4*, Harris 3*, Regan 3*, Mitchell 2*

    With a seemingly “very good” coach, and a roster that returns everyone AND a nice recruiting class, UVA should be an even tougher out next year. Sophomore slump is possible though, with the increased expectations.

    Clemson:

    Graduates: Booker, Potter, Petrukunis
    Additions: Thornton 3*

    Losing Booker is going to hurt. I expect Clemson to be a middle-tier scrappy ACC team, as always.

    Georgia Tech:

    Graduates: Bell, Peacock
    Additions: Morris 4*

    With Favors and Lawal both likely considering an early exit, and the Yellow Jackets losing Peacock…they can’t help but get worse next year. One-year-wonder coach Hewitt will clearly have the fans on his back, if he’s the coach at all.

    Maryland:

    Graduates: Vasquez, Hayes, Milbourne
    Additions: Parker 4*, Howard 3*, Pankey 3*, Stoglin 3*

    Maryland loses their top 3 players, including the heart and soul of the team in Vasquez. Way too much to try to replace in one year…look for Maryland to drop significantly.

    Miami:

    Graduates: Collins, Dews, Thomas
    Additions: Brown 4*, Akpejiori 2*, Swoope 1*

    Miami gets worse, as they don’t look to have enough coming in to replace Collins and Dews.

    Boston College:

    Graduates: Roche
    Additions: Noreen 4*, Ndao 3*, Heslip 3*

    BC should improve, as they add a few pieces to the puzzle, while losing nobody.

    Virginia Tech:

    Graduates: Witcher, Bednam
    Additions: Eddie 4*, Garland 3*

    Assuming no early departures (Delaney?), Greenburg will have a fantastic looking team next year. Top 3-4 ACC.

    Florida State:

    Graduates: Yawni, Reid
    Additions: Miller 4*, White 4*, James 3*

    Florida State keeps improving, as they lose nobody, and add more talented freshman. Upper half ACC team again. If Alabi goes pro, this could change things.

  18. burnbarn 02/24/2010 at 9:20 AM #

    Don’t forget the addition of Curry at Dook.. he will help a lot. k

  19. Daily Update 02/24/2010 at 9:23 AM #

    Rochester: We were having this discussion on the message board yesterday.

    In those three games, we shot well from the 3 pt line. Over the course of the season, we have seen that isn’t the norm for this team. IMO, that was just more random than anything else. We just happened to shoot well 3 times this year and it just so happened that it was against Duke, Wake and FSU. At least that is how I would explain it. Sort of like a Les Robinson team…he could beat UNC when we were hot from the 3 point line. However, those teams were still horid in terms of talent(yet likely better than this year’s team IMO).

  20. JeremyH 02/24/2010 at 9:23 AM #

    Daily Update, so we should finish around 5th?

  21. Daily Update 02/24/2010 at 9:24 AM #

    burbbarn: Duke is Duke. They will be top 2 in the league as long as K is there. Grantwolf did forget him though, so you are right.

  22. VaWolf82 02/24/2010 at 9:26 AM #

    My problem with the “we’re the least talented team in the ACC” argument is that the only three teams we’ve beaten were all ranked at the time.

    I wouldn’t suggest judging State’s talent on the three ACC games State has won while ignoring the 10 ACC games that they’ve lost. When you look at all of the facts, State’s BB team is bad…obviously one of the worst in the conference.

  23. Daily Update 02/24/2010 at 9:27 AM #

    Jeremeyh: I have no clue. I haven’t really looked at this, but just scanned Grantwolf’s post quickly and thought it was good info.

  24. choppack1 02/24/2010 at 9:42 AM #

    burnbarn – excellent point. Duke may be better next year than they are this year if Nolan Smith comes back.

    Hopefully bringing in Harrow and Brown will increase our steal #s. An improvement in this area can’t help but to also increase our scoring and FG%.

    Hopefully, they’ll be able to keep guards in front of them – which in theory should make us a better reboudning team.

    both Howell and Vandenberg rebound very well – so that could improve too with Horner – a pretty bad rebounder – leaving the fold.

    Regarding expectations – I was just looking for effort and execution this year. Sadly, by our coach’s own admission the effort and execution has been missing.

    If you want to look at stats that aren’t controled by your ability to put the ball in the hoop…we struggle their too:
    Our rebounding margin sucks
    Our FG% defense sucks
    Our scoring defense sucks
    Our steals # sucks

    The #s tell a truth that won’t shock anyone – we’ve gone from a team that was solid on offense and pretty good on defense to something else.

  25. Wulfpack 02/24/2010 at 9:59 AM #

    We have more talent than a 12th place team should have, I’ll tell you that much.

    If we want to make the CBI, we better get busy and win some more games. Need a winning record to qualify.

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