SMD: The Gap Grows Greater

SFN:  Long time readers may remember some of our old entries (from 2005-2006) that we named “Perpetually Disappearing Pie”.  We won’t link them here since our most recent server transition removed the key graphs from the entries.  Today’s entry is a special submission from one of our long time contributors, SMD, and brings with it a similar perspective.  Before reading this, we ask that you click here to view one of the many fascinating quotes from NC State’s current Athletics Director that will serve to provide direct insight into the mindset in Raleigh that helps create the results that SMD discusses in his submission.

I had tickets to the NC State-UNC-CH game today but didn’t go. I didn’t even watch it on TV. The last thing I wanted to see was another reminder of how far NC State has fallen behind the Tarholes.

While it is no exaggeration to say that I would literally pull for the Taliban National Team against the Baby Blues, the fact remains that I respect the hell out of their program. Frank McGuire, Dean Smith and now Roy Williams have established one of the top three college programs of all-time in Chapel Hell.

I give the Tarholes their due as a way of saying this; As a Wolfpacker, I have never expected our basketball program to compete neck and neck with UNC-CH for national prominence and titles. That idea is pretty much a pipe dream for anyone not named Coach K. However, given NC State’s storied tradition up to the early 1990s, there was no reason to ever think that we could not keep the Smurfs from feeling the wolves’ breath on their back.

Unfortunately, the Wolfpack is doing little to keep that pace and now we are a distant gleam in their rearview mirror – assuming they look back at all.

I’ve crunched the numbers from State’s basketball media guide and found some interesting statistics regarding the series record with UNC-CH. I looked at the head to head records for each decade starting in the 1950s and found the following;

1950 to 1960:

  • State won 16 of 27 for a win percentage of .592.
  • State won in 8 of the 10 years.

1960-1970:

  • State won 4 of 22 for a win percentage of .181.
  • State won in 4 of the 10 years.

1970-1980

  • State won 14 of 30 for a win percentage of .466.
  • State won in 9 of the 10 years.

1980-1990

  • State won 8 of 25 for a win percentage of .320
  • State won in 6 of the 10 years.

1990-2000

  • State won 6 of 22 for a win percentage of .272.
  • State won in 5 of the 10 years.

2000-2009

  • State won 5 of 18 for a win percentage of .277.
  • State won in 3 of the 9 years.

 

Over the course of the last 6 decades, NC State had one, four-year losing streak in the 60’s. In the current decade there was a three-year losing streak from 2004 to 2006. Besides those two streaks, the Wolfpack has never suffered long losing streaks to the Tarholes. Like I said, State was able to keep the wolves’ breath on the Heels’ back.

Here’s the killer; against UNC-CH coaches not named Matt Doherty, State has won just twice in the last 13 years and once in the last decade. Let that sink in. Throw out the anomaly that the Doherty years were for UNC-CH and our record against “normal” Tarhole teams is nothing short of dismal.

Let’s state it again for emphasis – Setting aside the Matt Doherty years, State has beaten UNC-CH twice in the last 13 years and once in the last decade.

Digging into the numbers deeper, and comparing the records of the nine schools in the old ACC, against non-Matt Doherty Tarhole teams over the last 13 years, NC State has the fewest wins against UNC-CH of ANY ACC institution.

Here’s the point of all these dismal and pathetic statistics; until NC State leadership decided to de-emphasize basketball (and some could argue the entire athletics program) the Wolfpack beat one of the top programs in all of college basketball on a regular basis. Tarhole basketball is what it is and NC State has no control over how great things are in Chapel Hell. But what we can control is keeping the pace with the legendary program we all love to hate. As I’ve said before in the comments section of this blog, younger Wolfpackers should know that until the late 1980’s, the Wolfpack was tied with UNC-CH for ACC titles. We had the same number of national titles until 1993.

One could argue that while beating the Tarholes feels good for the Monday after work, there are many other barometers to measure the strength of a basketball program than wins against a top notch arch-rival.

While there are other indicators of program strength, I strongly believe that how NC State’s program fares against our argyle-wearing enemies should be the indicator that matters most. Why?

If NC State is beating UNC-CH on a regular basis, then our program is in pretty good shape. The Tarholes are without a doubt the gold standard by which the rest of the ACC and other programs across the country are judged. The years that the Wolfpack has fared best in the rivalry typically runs parallel to the years of overall success for the program. That’s no coincidence. If you’re going to run with the top dogs, or near the top dogs, you have to beat them. And if you’re beating them, you’re probably doing pretty good against the mutts and other dogs that aren’t as good.

I don’t think we’ll ever make up the ground we’ve lost over the last 19 years in my lifetime. Recruits today have no clue what Wolfpack basketball used to be. But sometime or another NC State has to step up and at least try to keep pace with UNC-CH. We have to stop accepting the ever-widening gap between the two programs. Who will accept that challenge?

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129 Responses to SMD: The Gap Grows Greater

  1. Wulfpack 02/03/2009 at 2:15 PM #

    Chuck Amato is about as qualified to lead an athletic program as Sidney Lowe was to lead a basketball program. But hey, our guys sure would look cool walking around campus in red blazers, goofy shoes and shades…

    Wolf Dog, I wouldn’t go bragging too far with Sid’s record against Duke and UNC. It’s putrid. Again, not that others before him weren’t the same, but he hasn’t changed squat.

  2. Wulfpack 02/03/2009 at 2:18 PM #

    “The first thing you need to build a champion is a great fan atmosphere that attracks recruits.”

    Yea, the RBC is really rocking of late…

  3. Sam92 02/03/2009 at 2:26 PM #

    this site has been pretty quiet about football recruiting, which is in high season, maybe there’s not that much to report. anyone know if we’re in the running for any recruits tomorrow (signing day)?

  4. choppack1 02/03/2009 at 2:27 PM #

    WV Wolf – This is where I’d say, to be fair, you have to look at Les’, Turner’s, V’s and whoever the AD was before V…

  5. Noah 02/03/2009 at 2:37 PM #

    this site has been pretty quiet about football recruiting, which is in high season, maybe there’s not that much to report. anyone know if we’re in the running for any recruits tomorrow (signing day)?

    Nope. We’re done. A couple of sign-and-place guys maybe. But no one that will be here next year.

    UNC is expecting another 10 guys to commit, bringing their total to 89 commitments. Their recruiting class is beginning to represent a 1950s fraternity prank involving a phone booth.

  6. Noah 02/03/2009 at 2:38 PM #

    “So the only coach to beat a UNC team not coached by Matt Doherty in the last decade, is (drum roll please) SIDNEY LOWE!!!!!!!!!!!! Sid has only been here two and half years and has already out performed his predecessor in this area. And people want to get rid of him. And he already has a win against Duke!”

    The same could be said about HWSBN 2 years into his tenure.

    I told you we’d been here before. You could make the same argument about Les Robinson. History doesn’t repeat itself…but it does rhyme.

  7. Wolf Dog 02/03/2009 at 2:44 PM #

    choppack1 So are you saying given the same starts that Sid will be like the previous coach and eventually lead us to five straight NCAA bids? I see your point somewhat, but what’s the real difference?

    The difference is we got top recruits attending and watching our games for the first time in 20 years. I agree with the person that said that Roy does fear what Sid can bring to Raleigh.

    BJD95: That’s not what I said. Roy is aware of what NC State – as an institution – can be. A big part of it is what he came of age in North Carolina, when NC State was a significant threat. I have no reason to suspect that Roy “fears” anything about Sidney Lowe.

    And that is top recruits! We all agree Simmons left early and then Brackman left and left us void of any type of team that could compete. Then we lost a recruiting class and recruiting is not like it used to be. You got to start in on these kids long before they get to be a senior so Sid has had to totally build a recruiting base into areas the previous coach couldn’t touch. So all this meant we were going to be mediocre for Sid’s first, second, and third years almost guaranteed.

    Now that we got a top 25 class coming in that may get even better. People want to can the guy. Makes no sense to do it now or even talk about it. Kinda like those that complained Sid ran some NBA sets. Guess what that attracks top recruits. Kinda like QB’s and RB’s that want to go to a program that runs a pro set in football. Just seems to me we have some very immature and way too impatient fans. I am sure Coach K would have not lasted if these same fans were in charge either. Season is not even over yet on top of everything, we still could make some noise.

  8. whitefang 02/03/2009 at 2:52 PM #

    Off topic so may be deleted, but I still care about football.
    Noah what is your take on our fb recruiting class? Certainly not the stars as UNC, but looks to me to be a good solid group of the kind TOB and staff can work with. Thoughts?

  9. Wolf Dog 02/03/2009 at 2:57 PM #

    UNX’s committment total is crazy. UNC got 29 Football committments and still trying to get more. They only had 12 or 13 seniors. They kicked two guys off team, 2 or 3 not coming back, 1 or 2 medical hardships doesn’t count towards 85. Doesn’t add up and even with all that they still got to have 4 wait till nx spring to enroll cause you can only sign 25 max. Butch only signed 19 last year and should have only signed about the same this year. Be interesting to see how they get all these kids a scholarship over at UNX.

    I like our class. We got lots of interior lineman, which usally doesn’t give you a star studded highly ranked class. But its a blue collar crowd, that I think addresses our needs and will play some ball!

  10. choppack1 02/03/2009 at 3:13 PM #

    “choppack1 So are you saying given the same starts that Sid will be like the previous coach and eventually lead us to five straight NCAA bids? I see your point somewhat, but what’s the real difference?”
    I’d like Sid to lead us to 5 straight bids – I just hope it doesn’t take 6 years again and we do better than 1 Sweet 16 in those trips.

    There is NO difference – but I thought that we wanted to move forward, no GET BACK to the slightly above average results of Sendek.

    “The difference is we got top recruits attending and watching our games for the first time in 20 years. I agree with the person that said that Roy does fear what Sid can bring to Raleigh. And that is top recruits!”

    You’re right. He’s brought in some great recruits to attend our games. However, so did Les Robinson. However, he needs to show he can close on these guys. I think Sid is potentially a great recruiter, but that skill doesn’t mean a lot if these guys don’t sign their LOIs and don’t win a lot of games at NC State.

    I doubt Roy is losing much sleep over Lowe. He’s probably more worried about Wake Forest. Now, if Lowe shows that he can bag the big fish AND get results w/ them – that will change entirely.

  11. VaWolf82 02/03/2009 at 3:15 PM #

    I think the conspiracy theorists, who think the BoT, chancellor, etc. want to kill athletics make more and more sense.

    Never ascribe to malice, that which can be explained by incompetence.
    Napolean Bonaparte

  12. BSIE80 02/03/2009 at 3:31 PM #

    So 50+ years ago we had a winnning record against UNC.
    Wow.
    This means we have pretty much been underdogs for what 50 years. Seems right. How many coaches have we had during this time period, quite a few….
    I think this is why our AD is correct, unfortunately, you can not compare our success to UNC. Similarly, to not being able to compare our football program to USC, Alabama, Michigan, etc.

    Everyone is happy with TOB just winning 7-8 games and making it to a bowl. Why aren’t we screaming for his head for not putting us into position to play in a BCS bowl? He has had 2 years already.

  13. LKNpackfan 02/03/2009 at 3:34 PM #

    wolfdog, also consider that UNC has two grayshirts from last year’s class (didn’t qualify) that enrolled last month. They also count towards the 2009 class.
    Its going to be interesting to see just how Davis gets them in, and how these antics are viewed/reported by the media.

  14. Gene 02/03/2009 at 3:41 PM #

    “So, I’d say that the decline began in the 60s and we haven’t gotten our mojo back for a decade since then.”

    The decline began with Case’s recruiting scandal and some of his players point shaving.

    Lots of people focus on Valvano’s impact on NCSU, since I think more people are fromm an age group to remember him, but I think Sloan’s impact on NCSU can’t be underestimated.

    We were poised to fall off a cliff, as a basketball program, before Sloan got here. We had just come of several scandal ridden years and fallen well behind Duke, UNC and Wake Forest, who had all gone to Final Fours in the 1960’s.

    Sloan turned it around and produced the best squads in NCSU history. Without him, we’d have been irrelevant 20 years earlier.

    “Why aren’t we screaming for his head for not putting us into position to play in a BCS bowl? He has had 2 years already.”

    O’Brien has 10 years as a head coach and proven he can win at this level and build a successful program. He has also worked several years as an assisstant for UVa, so knows the college game very well. Even if he struggles he has the track record, which gives me confidence.

    With Sid I just don’t know what to expect.

  15. Noah 02/03/2009 at 3:42 PM #

    The difference is we got top recruits attending and watching our games for the first time in 20 years.

    This is complete. And total. Bull***.

    You know which basketball coach brought in good recruiting classes to NC State?

    All of them. There’s never been a basketball coach at NC State that DID NOT RECRUIT top players. Furthermore, every coach at NC State has enjoyed pretty good recruiting success.

    Sendek’s first class was a top-20 class. Archie Miller was a top-40 player. Ron Kelly was top-50. Inge and Ron Anderson were listed as “top-100 equivalents” among the prep schoolers. We also were involved with about 10 other guys that were in the top-100. Kaspers Kambala, Dion Glover, Alvin Jones, Max Owens, and plenty more.

    The next year, we got Adam Harrington (top 25) and Keith Bean (top 100). We were also involved HEAVILY with the #1 player in the country, Al Harrington.

    The next year, we got a commitment from Damien Wilkins and Marshall Williams. Both were top-40 players. Wilkins was a top-10 player on some lists. Cliff Crawford was a top-75 player.

    The year after that…Scooter Sherill, Marcus Melvin and Michael Bell. All top 50 players.

    Two years after that, we have a top-five class with Hodge, Powell, Watkins, Collins and Evtimov.

    Les Robinson…had early success. He brought in three top-100 players his first year. He brought in three the next year with Chuck Kornegay, Todd Fuller and Marcus Wilson.

    We had Jerry Stackhouse and Jeff McCinness and Donald Williams and Ray Allen and 20 other big-time recruits all visiting NC State during his time.

    Sweet Jesus. What a load of garbage.

  16. Noah 02/03/2009 at 3:47 PM #

    If your BEST defense of “Sid” is that he’s involved with some good recruits — you have no defense. You might as well just fabricate a bunch of crap out of thin air (like, “We’ve NEVER gotten these recruits before!”). Why not something more substantial?

    “I saw ‘Sid’ save a bunch of nuns and babies from a burning house!”

    or…

    “Sid’s such a good father-figure! Look at how his own son turned out!”

    or…

    “We need a good family man like ‘Sid’ around our program!”

  17. choppack1 02/03/2009 at 3:49 PM #

    “Its going to be interesting to see just how Davis gets them in, and how these antics are viewed/reported by the media.”

    True. I imagine if he’s successful, they’ll turn a blind eye. If he struggles, it will magically become an issue.

  18. tcthdi-tgsf-twhwtnc 02/03/2009 at 3:53 PM #

    I got something positive… Sid hasn’t built an Italian Villa in Wake County nor does he drive a candy apple red Corvette. At least he hasn’t done either to my knowledge.

  19. Noah 02/03/2009 at 3:57 PM #

    Noah what is your take on our fb recruiting class? Certainly not the stars as UNC, but looks to me to be a good solid group of the kind TOB and staff can work with. Thoughts?

    I’m very pleased with it.

    I thought this was a good summary:

    http://www.charlotteobserver.com/664/story/510403.html

  20. Noah 02/03/2009 at 3:59 PM #

    crap…Whitefang — check out the Charlotte Observer’s piece yesterday on our recruiting class. I can’t post a link to it, but it was in yesterday’s paper so it should still be online.

    Go to the main observer page, put in a slash, then a 664, then another slash, and then story and another slash and then a 510403 dot html.

  21. PKTFAN 02/03/2009 at 4:19 PM #

    I think that there are very interesting comments on this issue. FWIW I am still one of those people that drives 3 hrs to every game. The statistics above are very telling. Every game I sit with my wife in the RBC and wonder how can we have such a wonderful arena, great fan support (especially considering the results over the last 20 years), a men’s only practice facility, location in a great area, memebership in the best college bbal conf in the world, and tons of good history and put out such a bad product. I took my brother to his first game in the RBC and he was just in awe and then remarked “how can we suck so bad”??

    When we hired Sid WP Nation was concerned about many things. However, my fear now is that in addition to the lack of experience with college there are other “management” issues that make the learning curve any steeper. NOAH, if this is true could you provide some examples you know to be true. You seem to have some insight that is more that just heresay.

  22. Tiew 02/03/2009 at 4:24 PM #

    I generally enjoy and respect your comments Noah, but I think you crossed a line there.

  23. SMD 02/03/2009 at 4:26 PM #

    I think a few posters may have missed the point of the column. The stat on the percentages for each decade is one thing, but the more telling stat is the time between victories.

    Unless we get our own version of Coach K, our win percentage against the Holes hovers around an average of .300 (I didn’t add it up exactly, that’s just eyeballing it.) The realist in me has absolutely no problem with that.

    BUT – as long as we can win roughly one in three – that makes it mean more to both sides, keeps the rivalry going and I dare say, it keeps our program relevant, since beating the Holes roughly corresponds with having good seasons anyway.

    For the 70’s we beat them every year but one. Hell, for 85-92 we beat them 7 of the 8 years. That means that at least once per year, we could get bragging rights and it actually meant something, because we weren’t too far behind them.

    Even if we had won last weekend, it wouldn’t have meant dick because now it’s such a David and Goliath thing and even the players know that.

  24. Wulfpack 02/03/2009 at 4:32 PM #

    Sidney Lowe’s record through 7 ACC games:

    2007: 2-5 ACC, 12-8 overall
    2008: 3-4 ACC, 14-7 overall
    2009: 2-5 ACC, 11-8 overall

    Sidney Lowe’s record against UNC: 1-5
    Sidney Lowe’s record against Duke: 1-4
    Sidney Lowe’s Combined Record vs. Duke and UNC: 2-9 (.181)
    Avg. Margin of Defeat vs. Duke: 15.25
    Avg. Margin of Defeat vs. UNC: 18.40

  25. Pack Leader 02/03/2009 at 4:33 PM #

    Speaking of The upcoming football recruits…….. i am a little confused so mabey Noah or someone can help me understand the talent we have coming in because i am hearing several differnt things. one article i read said we had one 4 star recruit and that was jarvis byrd the DB from florida. (which is great we will def need help in there!) But when you go online to scout.com it lists Denzelle Good (OL) and Asa Watson (TE) as 4 star recruits, Good 6th and Watson 10th in the nation respectivly. So does that mean Bryd has jumped wayyy up peoples board or does that mean good nad watson have just not impressed as much as expected (even though the season is over there shouldnt be too much jumping. Can someone help me clarify?? But to me it seems like TOB decided to get as many hard working 3 stars as he could because as we all know 3 stars can become Golden stars in college (ala Russel wilson, Nate Irving, George Bryan, Owen Spencer).

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