SMD: The Gap Grows Greater

SFN:  Long time readers may remember some of our old entries (from 2005-2006) that we named “Perpetually Disappearing Pie”.  We won’t link them here since our most recent server transition removed the key graphs from the entries.  Today’s entry is a special submission from one of our long time contributors, SMD, and brings with it a similar perspective.  Before reading this, we ask that you click here to view one of the many fascinating quotes from NC State’s current Athletics Director that will serve to provide direct insight into the mindset in Raleigh that helps create the results that SMD discusses in his submission.

I had tickets to the NC State-UNC-CH game today but didn’t go. I didn’t even watch it on TV. The last thing I wanted to see was another reminder of how far NC State has fallen behind the Tarholes.

While it is no exaggeration to say that I would literally pull for the Taliban National Team against the Baby Blues, the fact remains that I respect the hell out of their program. Frank McGuire, Dean Smith and now Roy Williams have established one of the top three college programs of all-time in Chapel Hell.

I give the Tarholes their due as a way of saying this; As a Wolfpacker, I have never expected our basketball program to compete neck and neck with UNC-CH for national prominence and titles. That idea is pretty much a pipe dream for anyone not named Coach K. However, given NC State’s storied tradition up to the early 1990s, there was no reason to ever think that we could not keep the Smurfs from feeling the wolves’ breath on their back.

Unfortunately, the Wolfpack is doing little to keep that pace and now we are a distant gleam in their rearview mirror – assuming they look back at all.

I’ve crunched the numbers from State’s basketball media guide and found some interesting statistics regarding the series record with UNC-CH. I looked at the head to head records for each decade starting in the 1950s and found the following;

1950 to 1960:

  • State won 16 of 27 for a win percentage of .592.
  • State won in 8 of the 10 years.

1960-1970:

  • State won 4 of 22 for a win percentage of .181.
  • State won in 4 of the 10 years.

1970-1980

  • State won 14 of 30 for a win percentage of .466.
  • State won in 9 of the 10 years.

1980-1990

  • State won 8 of 25 for a win percentage of .320
  • State won in 6 of the 10 years.

1990-2000

  • State won 6 of 22 for a win percentage of .272.
  • State won in 5 of the 10 years.

2000-2009

  • State won 5 of 18 for a win percentage of .277.
  • State won in 3 of the 9 years.

 

Over the course of the last 6 decades, NC State had one, four-year losing streak in the 60’s. In the current decade there was a three-year losing streak from 2004 to 2006. Besides those two streaks, the Wolfpack has never suffered long losing streaks to the Tarholes. Like I said, State was able to keep the wolves’ breath on the Heels’ back.

Here’s the killer; against UNC-CH coaches not named Matt Doherty, State has won just twice in the last 13 years and once in the last decade. Let that sink in. Throw out the anomaly that the Doherty years were for UNC-CH and our record against “normal” Tarhole teams is nothing short of dismal.

Let’s state it again for emphasis – Setting aside the Matt Doherty years, State has beaten UNC-CH twice in the last 13 years and once in the last decade.

Digging into the numbers deeper, and comparing the records of the nine schools in the old ACC, against non-Matt Doherty Tarhole teams over the last 13 years, NC State has the fewest wins against UNC-CH of ANY ACC institution.

Here’s the point of all these dismal and pathetic statistics; until NC State leadership decided to de-emphasize basketball (and some could argue the entire athletics program) the Wolfpack beat one of the top programs in all of college basketball on a regular basis. Tarhole basketball is what it is and NC State has no control over how great things are in Chapel Hell. But what we can control is keeping the pace with the legendary program we all love to hate. As I’ve said before in the comments section of this blog, younger Wolfpackers should know that until the late 1980’s, the Wolfpack was tied with UNC-CH for ACC titles. We had the same number of national titles until 1993.

One could argue that while beating the Tarholes feels good for the Monday after work, there are many other barometers to measure the strength of a basketball program than wins against a top notch arch-rival.

While there are other indicators of program strength, I strongly believe that how NC State’s program fares against our argyle-wearing enemies should be the indicator that matters most. Why?

If NC State is beating UNC-CH on a regular basis, then our program is in pretty good shape. The Tarholes are without a doubt the gold standard by which the rest of the ACC and other programs across the country are judged. The years that the Wolfpack has fared best in the rivalry typically runs parallel to the years of overall success for the program. That’s no coincidence. If you’re going to run with the top dogs, or near the top dogs, you have to beat them. And if you’re beating them, you’re probably doing pretty good against the mutts and other dogs that aren’t as good.

I don’t think we’ll ever make up the ground we’ve lost over the last 19 years in my lifetime. Recruits today have no clue what Wolfpack basketball used to be. But sometime or another NC State has to step up and at least try to keep pace with UNC-CH. We have to stop accepting the ever-widening gap between the two programs. Who will accept that challenge?

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129 Responses to SMD: The Gap Grows Greater

  1. Trip 02/03/2009 at 10:33 AM #

    Next time rather than backing it up with statistics and other junk, let’s just have a post that simply says…

    “We are bad.”

    We can then all agree, laugh a little… and then cry a lot.

  2. Pack Leader 02/03/2009 at 10:33 AM #

    I still say a coach should be given the same opportunity as the president. 4 years. if in 4 years we arnt close to where we need to be or moving quickly in that direction then its time to part ways. But to me firing sid would be kinda like the Detroit Lions firing just the coach. obvioulsy there is more problems than just one man. we talk about it too much but the administration has ALLOWED state to drop to the degree it has…. not just in basketball. I say we do just like the banks in trouble…. clean house from the top down. bring in some new faces and new ideas and actually get an ad that holds people accountable. The reason we are so tough on sid and fowlup is because THEY ARE PAID HANSOMELY TO PERFORM. Like it or not college athletics is a HUGE revenue builder so if you want to ask for the $ then show me you can do something positive with the $.
    If schools like St. Marys can crack the top 25 but NC State has trouble getting 2 sports TOTAL in the top 25 then we have a major problem. we have the abliity but right now we are holding ourselves back. we havnt marketed our name right and the popularity of the pack as dwindled nationally (not amongst pack faithful) in the last 20 years. in 1985 everyone in the nation knew about our program (not just basketball). I pray next year is similar a WF last year.

  3. Rick 02/03/2009 at 10:35 AM #

    To use a bailout analogy…
    NCSU is Chrysler
    Duke and UNC are Honda and Toyota

    Our bailout is the lifetime rights.
    Because we have the cash there is no incentive to improve. We will eventually fail (because eventually even the sunk costs do not offset the desire to get out) but it will be a long painful drawn out process.

    What should have happened was when things went south people respond with their pocket books and quit buying seats. That forces change in management, improvement and then more customers. Instead we plod along the way we are. No hope

  4. Dan 02/03/2009 at 11:05 AM #

    Hire Anthony Grant today. Thanks to Fowler, we have no shot at an established A lister. I think Grant would jump at the opportunity to coach on Tobacco Road.

    He’ll be somewhere other than VCU next year. I hope it’s Raleigh. But I have no confidence in Fowler making the right move.

  5. Wolf74 02/03/2009 at 11:18 AM #

    I have to admit that something good has come out of this. Fowler has cured me. I didn’t watch the NCSU vs UNCNike game AND didn’t miss it. You see, I was once – and yes I will admit it – a STATEAHOLIC. I lived, breathed and slept NCSU athletics. I bought the magazines, watched any and every NCSU sport on TV. Went to all the bowl games. Went to all the Wolfpack club events. Even went to basketball games during the week (tough duty as I live in Charlotte). I talked Wolfpack at work, at parties, playing golf, with my wife, with my son, with anyone that would listen. I was missing T-ball games and kung fu classes.

    But now I have been cured. Fowler’s NCSU cured me. Yes, I still want NCSU to win but now I don’t skip the minor things in life such as graduations or weddings because NCSU is playing. And you cann’t imagine the money I have saved. I got to see my son grow up, go off to college and become a D1 college baseball player. I can go to his games, follow his team, watch him live his dream.

    Ah, life is good. But you know, every once in a while I hear this faint growling deep inside and I know that I long for the days gone by. I fear that the beast will be rekindled but you know, the wait is long.

  6. Noah 02/03/2009 at 11:22 AM #

    Bobby Knight would be a great hire for someone like Campbell or Davidson. He would be a great hire the way Lefty Driesel was a great hire for Georgia State.

    Rod Marinelli got fired because there was absolutely NO WAY that the Lions could sell season tickets next year with him back as coach. And frankly, while Marinelli might not be the worst coach ever, what did he do to earn another year?

    The Lions are a mess. They needed to change everything about them. They got rid of their future expensive piece (Roy Williams) and will get three good pieces in return (that are cheap). They got rid of their equivalent of an AD (millen) and then they got rid of the head coach. Clean start. I applaud them for it.

    And the reason you give a president four years is because the constitution makes it illegal to do anything but. We don’t have any such restrictions. I think we should adopt a parliamentarian approach.

    We should have a motion of no confidence, dissolve the AD and call for a general election. That means getting rid of Fowler, getting rid of “Sid” and making bold, deliberate moves for the betterment of Wolfpack Nation.

  7. ryebread 02/03/2009 at 11:25 AM #

    Fowler needs to go before we’ll really have a chance to see any improvement. Whether that’s high enough in the chain to actually make a difference is debatable, but the buck should ultimately stop with the person who is in charge of an office where a good percentage of the programs are failing.

  8. Daily Update 02/03/2009 at 11:29 AM #

    My passion for NC State basketball is gone. Lee Fowler and the rest of the administrators over the last 15 years killed it. I don’t really care anymore and I won’t be purchasing my season ticket next year.

    I was one of the people who felt positive about only losing by 17 points to UNC. Lee Fowler has officially won. That is exactly how he wants me to feel.

  9. BJD95 02/03/2009 at 11:45 AM #

    I was in Vegas, and also didn’t watch. Even with TVs aplenty in the casinos (some actually were tuned to our game), I didn’t want to ruin my day.

  10. CStanley 02/03/2009 at 12:00 PM #

    Good article, but I think you need to refocus your frustration. Forget about trying to compete with Carolina right now.

    Hell, I’d just like to be able to compete against Clemson again.

    One point I think you miss from your stats. We didn’t really beat Carolina on a “regular” basis (at least I don’t call winning 40%, 30% or 27% regular). However, what’s missing is that we were winning most of our other games. We were also winning championships, making deep runs in the ACC/NCAA tournaments, and were overall just…RELEVANT!

    Until we get to that point again, we can forget about trying to compete with UNC.

  11. 61Packer 02/03/2009 at 12:06 PM #

    Noah: Bobby Knight would be a great hire for someone like Campbell or Davidson.

    Davidson doesn’t need Knight, because they’ve already got something we don’t have- a coach who knows how to compete against larger schools (like the Wolfpack) and win, while building a solid program.

    What have we done lately?

  12. buttPACKer 02/03/2009 at 12:09 PM #

    I love football, but I have long since lost faith in the basketball program–I can honestly say I am indifferent to basketball, because it was just too painful when I did care.

    Somebody email if ever we are relevant again, and I may reconsider my stance. . . Until then. .

  13. PoppaJohn 02/03/2009 at 12:13 PM #

    Wow, great post / analysis! But DEPRESSING!
    As someone else mentioned, this is why I read SFN.

    I think another gauge of how far we have sunk is the fact that I care that Ken Tysiac thinks “…you couldn’t help but think that there’s hope for N.C. State this season.”

    How pathetic is that?

  14. Gene 02/03/2009 at 12:24 PM #

    I think the conspiracy theorists, who think the BoT, chancellor, etc. want to kill athletics make more and more sense.

    I remember reading from the powers that be that Turner was dedicated to NCSU and a good AD. His subsequent firings run counter to the notion.

    The only reason the BoT, et. al. stuck by Turner is they wanted to kill athletics at NCSU.

    I say we one up them and demand to rejoin the Southern Conference. I think we can consistently finish in the top 3rd of the SoCo., with the the teams we have been fielding this decade.

  15. old13 02/03/2009 at 12:29 PM #

    “I still say a coach should be given the same opportunity as the president. 4 years” Actually, the president has only 2 years. Then congressional elections likely change the playing field for him (assuming that he had one to begin with.)

  16. Noah 02/03/2009 at 12:48 PM #

    Davidson doesn’t need Knight, because they’ve already got something we don’t have- a coach who knows how to compete against larger schools (like the Wolfpack) and win, while building a solid program.

    Which is why I used the word, “like.”

    Small program, good academics, modest expectations, playing STRICTLY by the rules is the norm, you don’t have to recruit top-100 guys.

    Unless I was convinced that he was on some sort of mood stabilizer, I wouldn’t hire Knight. I think he’s got a million great qualities…but ultimately, he has three or four fatal ones. I wish more people in college sports (and life) had his resolve, his moral code, and his courage/balls/gravitas. Unfortunately, we live in a world filled with people who share his self-destruction, horrible impulse control, and poor instincts.

  17. nycfan 02/03/2009 at 1:00 PM #

    A lot of you say your passion for NC State basketball is gone, but I don’t believe it — if your passion was really gone, you would not even bother posting on the subject.

    I think you guys have had your hopes and expectations dashed so many times in the last 20 years that you’re like a guy who’s had his heart trampled too many times and tries not to make an emotional investment the “next” time (or season) b/c you can’t stand the hurt anymore, but inside your hearts ache to be back in the game, living and dying NC State basketball. Just look at the surge I know most of you felt when Lowe led State to the ACC final his first year, only to have that crushed in the debris of high expectations and terrible chemistry last season.

    No, I think you guys are just waiting for Mr. Right to turn the program around and if he happens to show up, you’ll be rabid again almost instantly. What I don’t know is how many more years you can kindle that passion until something changes (for the better) in Raleigh.

  18. Rochester 02/03/2009 at 1:01 PM #

    I’m not sure which idea is worse, Bobby Knight as our coach or Chuck Amato as our AD. Neither would be a step in the right direction.

    As much as we all complain about having to live in the past, why would anyone think Bobby Knight would be the solution? His best days were roughly about the same time as ours, which means a long, long time ago.

    And CTC? Well, we might not have to worry about coaches staying too long. If they turned over as fast as his assistants did we’d have a new basketball coach to critique every season.

  19. Wolf Dog 02/03/2009 at 1:05 PM #

    So the only coach to beat a UNC team not coached by Matt Doherty in the last decade, is (drum roll please) SIDNEY LOWE!!!!!!!!!!!! Sid has only been here two and half years and has already out performed his predecessor in this area. And people want to get rid of him. And he already has a win against Duke! I know we not where we want to be, but this post actually enforces progress by Lowe. I do know I watched the previous coach not only lose consistently to Duke and Carolina but we would just flat out get embarassed the majority of the time. Outside of the game at UNC last year, we’ve had allot more fight and been in more games under Sid than we were before.

    Great Post you just proved why we need to give Sid more time. We don’t have a bad team this year. We’ve lost some close games and four of our loses have come to teams in the top ten. We lost to Florida which is leading thier division in the SEC. Davidson which has been in top 25 and BC which has proven to be a good team. We making prgress and I understand everyone wants it now but Roy coached like 20 years before he got a ring and Dean coached like 15 years before he got a ring.

    The first thing you need to build a champion is a great fan atmosphere that attracks recruits. It is not Sids fault that the former coach was anti excitement and did not embrace the fan base and did stupid crap like not play a senior on the last home game. We start doing the first thing and then let Sid keep bringing in the talent and if Sid can’t coach em, believe coaches across the country will want too.

  20. LKNpackfan 02/03/2009 at 1:16 PM #

    Yes, the gap grows greater. Its something that the entire basketball nation knew in the back of our minds, which is now supported by tangible criteria, such as facts and statistics.
    So, who’s fault is it?
    IMO, we can’t target Lowe. Remember, Lowe immediately was refused an entire recruiting class (minus Horner), while Simmons went pro 2 yrs early, and Brackman chose not to return, (focusing on baseball has proven to be a great decision). Lowe at that time, with zero experience in coaching college ball, zeroexperience with recruiting, zeroexperience with managing 18-22 year old personalities, and nocollege degree, was really only qualified to be a low-level assistant on Tobacco Road. It isn’t his fault that he’s inexperienced and was screwed from the start. He’s made a series of mistakes since his first day (over-signing the PG position with questionable ACC talent, apparrent absence of an offseason conditioning programs after the first year, mismanaging the season-killing dissention within the team last year, Q, …), but, as he is learning on the job, he’s taken steps to correct and prevent those mistakes going forward. He does know the game, he can coach X’s and O’s. At this point, we can only give him more time.
    Blame squarely rests on our AD’s and Administration’s shoulders. It was our AD that lead a completely humiliating, month-long coaching search, that resulted in losing an entire class of recruits. It’s Fowler that refused and still refuses to hold anyone accountable for their on-the-field performance. And, it is the Board of Trustees and Mr. O that not only refuses to hold Fowler accountable for his embarrassing conduct and pathetic performance in all areas not labeled fund-raising, but also gave him an unwarranted vote-of-confidence and contract extension.
    The best (possibly only) way to effectively communicate a change with the AD is with our wallets. Emails, letters, voicemails, inter-web posts – all easily ignored. But a significant reduction in donations cannot be. I personally have reduced my contributions to the bare minimum, donating only what is necessary to retain my football LTRs.

  21. LKNpackfan 02/03/2009 at 1:23 PM #

    ^I think the conspiracy theorists, who think the BoT, chancellor, etc. want to kill athletics make more and more sense.
    I don’t believe the administration wants to KILL athletics, that would require too much paperwork. I think they’re simply fat, rich, and perfectly happy with setting this university on auto-pilot.

  22. highstick 02/03/2009 at 1:26 PM #

    Hire Bobby Knight immediately as an assistant! I’d love for him to show the ACC refs his videotapes of 5 step Hansborough!

  23. WV Wolf 02/03/2009 at 1:44 PM #

    Sadly, this is not just limited to basketball.

    These are some numbers I started to put together when I was doing my other stat entries but never did anything with them. They are up to date but I haven’t double checked them so I may be off a win somewhere but it should give you a general idea. For the non-win/loss sports, finishing ahead of Carolina in the ACC championships counts as a win.

    Stay away from ledges and sharp objects before you keep reading.

    Record vs Carolina under Lee Fowler

    Football: 5-4 (.556)
    M Basketball: 5-13 (.278)
    W Basketball: 4-17 (.190)
    Baseball: 11-15 (.423)
    M Soccer: 1-9-3 (.077)
    W Soccer: 1-12-0 (.077)
    Gymnastics: 11-16-1 (.393)
    Wrestling: 5-9-1 (.333)
    Volleyball: 0-18 (.000)
    Softball: 12-5 (.706)
    M Tennis: 1-11 (.083)
    W Tennis: 0-8 (.000)
    M Swimming: 0-8 (.000)
    W Swimming: 0-8 (.000)
    M Cross Country: 9-0 (1.000)
    W Cross Country: 6-3 (.667)
    M Golf: 4-4 (.500)
    W Golf: 3-5 (.375)
    M Indoor Track: 3-5 (.375)
    W Indoor Track: 0-8 (.000)
    M Outdoor Track: 2-6 (.250)
    W Outdoor Track: 0-8 (.000)

    Total: 83-192-5 (.296)

  24. choppack1 02/03/2009 at 1:50 PM #

    “So the only coach to beat a UNC team not coached by Matt Doherty in the last decade, is (drum roll please) SIDNEY LOWE!!!!!!!!!!!! Sid has only been here two and half years and has already out performed his predecessor in this area. And people want to get rid of him. And he already has a win against Duke!”

    The same could be said about HWSBN 2 years into his tenure.

    HSBN regular season conference record after 2 years: 9-23
    SL regular season conference record after 2 years: 9-23
    HSBN Total ACC record after 2 years: 13-25
    SL total ACC record after 2 years: 12-25
    HSBN victories over UNC and Duke 1st 2 years – 2
    SL victories over UNC and Duke 1st 2 years – 2

    Now, I seem to recall a couple of the losses being better tot UNC and worse to Duke, but different coach there then and now.

    Let’s not get too far off the subject here though.

    This post is about our futility in the athletic department specifically as it pertains to basketball. One thing that’s pretty obvious w/ the data that you posted. The struggles against UNC didn’t start in the 90s, we’ve done worse against them each successive decade w/ one exception – the 1970s – and even is spite of going undefeated against them at least 2 years – we had a losing record to them that year.

    So, I’d say that the decline began in the 60s and we haven’t gotten our mojo back for a decade since then.

  25. whitefang 02/03/2009 at 2:02 PM #

    I am with Wolf74. I mean what State fans sat down and watched Saturday? Drive 7 hours round trip to watch us play Carolina in basketball? Are you kidding me? I’m surprised we had as many fans at the game as we did. I made sure I had something planned outside in the cold beginning at 3:30 just so i wouldn’t make the mistake of hitting that channel on the remote. Compete with UNC? Hell we can’t compete with Clemson much less Duke and WF. Can you believe that? The football school who lost Rick Barnes to a bigger football school and who plays in a 10,000 seat coliseum, has a basketball program miles better than we do. I mean who coaches Clemson and WF? Yes I know the answers, but its not like these guys are inevitable future hall of famers. Damn!

    I remember the old times, planning for days where I was going to watch the UNC games. And yes we lost our share to them, and in those days I HATED the crap I would catch at work from the Tarbabies when that happened. Didn’t hear a freaking word Monday because we don’t matter.

    Sidney Lowe seems to be a great guy who I know loves his alma mater. You can twist it anyway you want, but 3 years into this absolute screwed up hire – which by the way ain’t his fault – and I can’t see how we have made any progress. Give him 3 more years. heck give him a freaking lifetime contract. The chance he has got what it takes to turn this battleship around are remote. But then again who cares?

    Football starts in less than 7 months.

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