SFN Bowl Projections (12/3 Update)

It’s been a crazy 48 hours in the world of ‘Bowl Tracking’, but some developments over the last few hours have opened visibility to a likely scenario of how NC State ultimately could play in the EagleBank Bowl in Washington, DC despite the news from yesterday that such a bid was unlikely.

We have been updating this entry with key bowl developments and analysis over the last two days that would be of value to you

As you can see from this ‘big’ news tonight that Lee Fowler is actually getting press for doing what any Athletics Director should be doing, nothing has come together for the Wolfpack yet.

The following are SFN’s current bowl projections for the ACC based on the current direction of the winds that are blowing if Maryland is allowed to weasel out of their commitments to the league.

(1) Orange – VT/BC winner
(2) Peach – Georgia Tech (done deal 12/3)
(3) Gator – Clemson (done deal)
(4) Champs – Florida State
(5) Music City – VT/BC loser
(6) Meineke – UNC
(7) Emerald – Miami
(8) Boise – Wake Forest
(9) Eagle – NC State
(10) At-Large (Motor City?) – Maryland

The following are the two key variables for you to keep monitor that must converge in order for NC State to earn an invite to DC to play Navy:

(1) The Champs Bowl needs to select Florida State over UNC which would push UNC to the Meineke Bowl in Charlotte. If the Champs chooses UNC-CH, then the Meineke will probably pick Maryland to pair with West Virginia for a renewal of a strong regional rivalry that would insure a sellout. Taking Maryland off the board would create a situation where the final three bowls could be filled in a manner that excludes NC State.

(2) The Emerald Bowl needs to choose Miami over Wake Forest in an attempt to draw television interest in a game that won’t be able to attract a large traveling contingent from either program leaving two teams that cannot/will not play in the Eagle Bowl – Wake because they played Navy in the regular season and Maryland because they have pulled themselves from consideration due to exams.

4:30pm Update
JP Giglio of the N&O’s ACCNow has a fantastic piece up on their blog that is good news for NC State getting to Washington.

Giglio has sources that indicate the first key domino in the equation is happening — Champs to choose FSU.

This would create and obvious situation where UNC-CH goes to Charlotte and pushes Maryland, Miami & Wake Forest for the ACC’s final three slots.

As we previously stated, the next variable that would have to fall into place for the Wolfpack is for the Emerald Bowl – who had Maryland last year – to pass over Wake Forest and choose Miami.

Again, click here for a lot of good information that runs parallel to this entry.

About BJD95

1995 NC State graduate, sufferer of Les and MOC during my entire student tenure. An equal-opportunity objective critic and analyst of Wolfpack sports.

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31 Responses to SFN Bowl Projections (12/3 Update)

  1. LRM 12/02/2008 at 3:50 PM #

    Really think the Gator would select 7-win Clemson over 8-win Carolina or Florida State, considering they each travel well?

    SFN: Already done.

  2. BJD95 12/02/2008 at 3:53 PM #

    ^ Yes. That’s apparently a done deal.

    The one that really surprises me is the Peach passing on VT and FSU.

  3. LRM 12/02/2008 at 4:04 PM #

    Well, I guess the only place GT fans can be reasonably expected to travel is Atlanta.

  4. VaWolf82 12/02/2008 at 4:11 PM #

    The Peach is in a better position than most bowls. They can afford to take a GT team as long as they get one of several SEC teams that would travel well and buy any tickets left over from GT fans.

    VT fans travel well, but their offense is hideous (which is standard for most teams in the ACC). The Peach wants to get as good a game as possible since they would like to be considered if the BCS bowl system expands.

    I’m guessing that getting spanked by UF took FSU out of the running for both the Peach and Gator. (Pure guess)

  5. Alpha Wolf 12/02/2008 at 4:13 PM #

    You know, it would be easier to track these bowls if we just had some tail numbers that we could enter on the Internet!

  6. zwolf 12/02/2008 at 4:14 PM #

    Isn’t Maryland 7-5? Isn’t the Eagle Bank bowl required to pick a 7-win team over a 6-win team like our Pack?

    According to the postseason handbook, SFN’s prediction can work as long as all the 7-win teams have at-large bids.


    SFN: Maryland has publicly said that they will not play in the EagleBankBowl because the bowl overlaps with Maryland’s exam schedule.

  7. Alpha Wolf 12/02/2008 at 4:18 PM #

    ^ zwolf, read the article below that details why Maryland doesn’t want to go to play a bowl game during their exam period. If the Emerald takes The U, then the ACC can cut a deal to send the Terps to the Motor City Bowl to play Ball State and then the EagleBank folks can schedule State to play Navy in DC.

  8. YANCSSB 12/02/2008 at 4:25 PM #

    Per Giglio at the N&O, it looks like Tech is going to the Peach and FSU to the Champs:

    The ACC has nine bowl tie-ins and the order won’t be finalized until after Saturday’s championship game between Virginia Tech and Boston College but major pieces fell into place on Tuesday, setting off a chain reaction.

    The Chik-fil-A Bowl, which chooses the first team after the ACC champion, will select No. 15 Georgia Tech (9-3), the highest-ranked ACC team, to play on Dec. 31 against either Ole Miss or LSU.

    The Tigers are the big mover. They didn’t reach bowl eligibility until the final Saturday of the regular season. They beat South Carolina 31-14 which secured the job for Swinney and improved the Tigers’ record to 7-5 overall.

    At 4-4 in the league, they are eligible for any conference tie-in except the Orange Bowl, which goes to the league champion.

    The Champs Bowl in Orlando, Fla. chooses after the Gator Bowl and will select Florida State (8-4), according to ACC and bowl sources.

    Under the ACC bowl agreement, the championship game loser cannot fall past the Music City Bowl in Nashville.

  9. LRM 12/02/2008 at 4:29 PM #

    GT-Ole Miss wouldn’t be a bad Peach Bowl match up at all.

  10. RBCRowdy 12/02/2008 at 4:43 PM #

    Constitutional Law may be simpler than the ACC bowl lineup…

  11. DFMo 12/02/2008 at 4:54 PM #

    DC may be an easy drive but think about the date … Dec 20.

    I thought this made sense >> http://blogs.newsobserver.com/accnow/no-dc-bowl-ok-for-pack


    O’Brien didn’t come out and say this, but there is one significant reason the Wolfpack would be better off if they can secure an at-large bowl bid elsewhere. The EagleBank Bowl, though it would be convenient for fans, is scheduled for Dec. 20.

    There isn’t enough time on the calendar for N.C. State to hold its full allotment of 15 pre-bowl practices before that Dec. 20 game. O’Brien considers those pre-bowl practices vital.

    He said Saturday that the extra practice associated with eight straight bowl appearances while he coached Boston College were pivotal in building his program.

    “That all adds up and accumulates over the years,” O’Brien said.

  12. cowdog 12/02/2008 at 4:54 PM #

    So, basically we are right back to where we were on Sunday with Ralph’s comment regarding ” a few at-large bowls available “, putting State right back to where we had them on Sunday.


  13. Girlfriend in a Coma 12/02/2008 at 4:57 PM #

    Con Law is common sense compared to this Byzantine set of intertwined yet contradictory regulations that end up giving you “Alice in Wonderland” results.

  14. primacyone 12/02/2008 at 4:58 PM #

    It’s it possbile to schedule a bowl game with UNC at Carter Finley and whoop there arses 41-10 again after an extra long tailgate? I just can’t come up with anything better than that.

  15. BJD95 12/02/2008 at 5:18 PM #

    Having taken Con Law, I can vouch that it was much easier to understand than all this bowl selection nonsense.

  16. packalum44 12/02/2008 at 5:45 PM #

    ahahahahahahahahahah…How do you think Butch feels to get slapped in the face? Finishing ahead of a 6-5 team and getting shafted to the Meineke Bowl! Gosh I love it! Think that would happen to an 8-4 State team??? I doubt it!

  17. theTHRILL 12/02/2008 at 5:52 PM #

    Is the general consensus that a matchup with (potentially) 8-4 Navy in DC would be better for the program than a matchup with undefeated Ball State? I, personally, would rather see the latter.

  18. wufpaxno1 12/02/2008 at 5:54 PM #

    Boy things happen fast around here, when I opened this page it was showing UNC to the Meineke as a done deal with a link, I clicked the link and when I came back to this page the link was gone. It disappeared almost as fast as we put up points on UNC in the second half.

    I have been trying to post this for the last two hours but work keeps interrupting me. Why the Hell would we even want to go to the Eaglebank Bowl short of it being our only option. No disrespect to the Eaglebank Bowl, but it is a first year bowl which will in all likelihood go the way of the Astro Blue Bonnet Bowl and various other Bowls that just could not cut it and which were lost and forgotten. We would be facing an unranked Service Academy with no BCS ties. And the Eaglebank(rupt) Bowl is played early in the Bowl season (December 20th) which aside from the fact offers very little extra practice time, makes it feel as if it is simply an extension of the regular season.

    The best thing that could happen to State is that they are not allowed to play in an ACC affiliated Bowl and get selected for an At Large Bowl spot. My first wish would be for the Papjohns.com Bowl against a Big East opponent (BCS) and played on December 29th which would give us an extra week’s worth of practice and fits nicely between Xmas and New Years. My second wish would be for the Motor City Bowl against a respectable and undefeated Ball State, also later in the bowl season.

    A Bowl game should be a reward for performing well and should have some benefit, I see very little benefit to playing in the Eaglebank Bowl, let Maryland have it. If Navy can accommodate it during exam week, Maryland for sure can. Besides, Maryland and Navy are only about 30 miles apart, it makes for a good natural rivalry.

  19. TOBtime 12/02/2008 at 6:09 PM #

    ^Thats just it wufpaxno, MD DOES want to travel. The exams are just an excuse. They don’t want a bowl 20 miles away that about 500 of their fans would show up for and does nothing for them in recruiting. Unlike us, who, would pack the stadium in Charlotte AGAIN. Our recent trips to the Gator and Tangerine bowls made some people take notice of us.

  20. ILMPACK 12/02/2008 at 6:56 PM #

    CHARLIE WEISS ISNT GOING ANYWHERE. Sportscenter update 6:58 pm Tues.
    Go Pack wherever we might go bowling!

  21. highstick 12/02/2008 at 7:08 PM #

    The Gator Bowl is being renamed the “Tater Bowl”! Maybe you have to live in SC to understand that one!

    Dang, this is frustrating, but I’m going to watch State-Davidson play Saturday!

  22. cowdog 12/02/2008 at 7:17 PM #

    Web site Irisheyes.com reports Weis to stay on.
    Well, we brought up some darn good reasons to stay on top of things.
    Good news for other schools’ coaches not so much for ND.

  23. tcthdi-tgsf-twhwtnc 12/02/2008 at 7:36 PM #

    ND is probably smart to keep Weis for another year. No reason for them to rebuild again.

    UNC to Charlotte Bowl

  24. charlieg87 12/02/2008 at 7:39 PM #

    I cannot believe that clemson is headed to the gator bowl. what BS!!!

  25. SuperStuff 12/02/2008 at 8:10 PM #

    The funny thing is I bet Charlotte would have liked to ask the Wolfpack instead of UNC-CH to play in that bowl. Especially after watching our program demolished their program is crushing fashion. Luckily for them the NCAA prevented that from happening with their new rule.

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