BJD’s Basketball Program Thoughts (UPDATE: Confirmed – Ferguson Out 3-6 Weeks)

First, stop watching this team as if had (or has) a chance to be good. It doesn’t. Whatever long-shot chance NC State ever had went down the drain when we first saw Farnold’s knee in action (he simply can’t cut on it playing defense). Keep in mind that our best guard, by far, is Trevor Ferguson. How can a team be good when that is the case? Depressingly, we received an e-mail last night noting that Trevor broke his arm or wrist during the Marquette game (kudos to him for finishing). UPDATE: Per the N&O’s “ACC Now” blog, Ferguson has a broken bone in his non-shooting hand, and will be out 3-6 weeks. Shit.

So, what do you look for this year? Baby steps. I see them. For the most part, State plays hard for 40 minutes (don’t confuse that with playing well or playing smart). The gameplans make sense, at least to me. There’s just not much we can do when the opposition makes adjustments. Subjectively, I don’t hate watching this team play, and am not embarrassed that they wear the uniform of my alma mater. Couldn’t say that last year.

Is this progress? I think so. We haven’t lost to any crap teams, unlike last year (ECU, New Orleans). We haven’t mailed it in. There’s just no way to do much more than that with the personnel currently in place.

Which leads me to 2009-10. This is when we need to see a great leap forward. We will have much better players in place, and at least one plus player at the guard position (Lorenzo Brown). If Lowe’s gameplans are in fact good, and he’s learned how to reach and motivate college players, then the 2009-10 will win some games, and make the NCAA tournament. Until then, we have to watch games from a different point of view. Take a Xanax if you need one.

About BJD95

1995 NC State graduate, sufferer of Les and MOC during my entire student tenure. An equal-opportunity objective critic and analyst of Wolfpack sports.

08-09 Basketball

185 Responses to BJD’s Basketball Program Thoughts (UPDATE: Confirmed – Ferguson Out 3-6 Weeks)

  1. Classof89 12/23/2008 at 1:02 PM #

    ^
    It didn’t matter anyway, because he was inside the 3-pt. line. So we would have lost by one instead of three.

  2. Wulfpack 12/23/2008 at 1:05 PM #

    ^Agreed. My wife and I caught that when Mac released the ball. And the announcers didn’t even mention it even after several replays. Great pass. Great shot. But wouldn’t have mattered had it counted anyways b/c it was a two-point shot with his feet straddling the line.

    Did I say the announcers were horrible?

  3. Alpha Wolf 12/23/2008 at 1:15 PM #

    Can you name a freshman point guard in the history of the ACC who has started for a successful team (I define successful as .500 or better in the league). It doesn’t happen

    Unless my memory is completely gone, Chris Corchiani started as a freshman.

  4. wolfonthehill 12/23/2008 at 1:19 PM #

    Gene said… “Otherwise we just have to deal with sucking.”

    Absolutely unacceptable.

    No Wolfpack fan should, at any point, have to deal with the b-ball team sucking.

    Let’s look about 75 miles west, to Winston-Salem. Let’s not forget that 2 years ago, they were on a downward slide… and recruiting was hurting… and their coach was on the hot seat… then he DIED, for God’s sakes.

    Wake Forest is now #6 in the country.

    “Dealing with sucking” is NEVER necessary… it only happens if the administration allows it to.

  5. Rochester 12/23/2008 at 1:26 PM #

    I liked what I saw of Mays last night, but that doesn’t mean I expect he’ll be all-ACC this year. He should play because he’s got a good BB IQ and he’s got a future. You could project someone with his skill set to improve over the next couple of years to the point where he’s a very solid starting player. Might never be all-ACC, but he could still be a valuable player for us. You can’t say the same about the two other PGs on the roster right now.

    And we need to be patient. Sid’s got a few things to learn that would probably have us 9-0 with this same roster and schedule. But if anyone advocates getting rid of him, please consider how far that will set the program back. We seriously would need to move to the Southern Conference if we lost another recruiting class (or two).

    As for the spectacular recruits coming in, that will be nice. But it’s the inability to find the overlooked guys that has really hurt. Where’s the next “2-star” Eric Maynor (out of Fayetteville)? VCU got a steal there. Obviously he was underrated. We seem to swing for the fences or wind up with walk-on caliber talent. The home runs are nice, but a single or a double can win a game too. I keep thinking that with a staff made up of great former guards someone should be able to spot these overlooked guys and recognize a potential steal.

  6. frankiepack 12/23/2008 at 1:35 PM #

    ^ Very true indeed ,lets look at Marquette their coach up and left for Indiana,they hired a long time asst there and I would say thay are in a lot better shape than us,same with Wake etc,all this poor Sid crap is starting to get to me.
    He is getting a good salary it is time to stop with the excuses,you need a quick fix go to europe and get some players.
    Javi? Marques Johnson? Farnold? could we have done better or is this Herbs fault Sid recruited those 3 stiffs!
    You have to play May’s ,last year all we heard was how Javi would be the guy this year??
    We not only deal with sucking but now people are talking 11/12 for Sid to see if he learns how to coach? Hell give him a Jo Pa penn state deal for life!

  7. Gene 12/23/2008 at 1:38 PM #

    wolfonthehill, what I meant was this year we aren’t going to be very good. Trying to keep harping on the fact doesn’t really do anything to help our program. We have issues at different positions, especially at the point guard position, which are a combination of injury and inexperience.

    Regarding Wake Forest, below are links for their last three recruiting classes. NOTE: In 2006 they had SIX PLAYER RECRUITING CLASS. In 2007 they had three players, two of them four stary guys.

    http://wakeforest.scout.com/a.z?s=192&p=9&c=8&cfg=bb&yr=2006

    http://wakeforest.scout.com/a.z?s=192&p=9&c=8&cfg=bb&yr=2007

    Like I have been saying you aren’t going to turn a program around quickly unless you ink a 5-6 player class. Even with the 2006 and 2007 classes, it has taken WFU a couple of year or two to become an elite team.

  8. choppack1 12/23/2008 at 1:43 PM #

    “To get a program back, after losing players, takes a few years. Injuries and early departures don’t help that along and that’s the problem we have now.”

    This is a fair point. OTOH, only 5 scholarship players from the previous regime remain – and college basketball, moreso than football, allows for a quick turnaround w/ the right staff.

    When you go outside out of the traditional college coaching community to hire your coach, you lose the opportunity to bring in a coach who has been recruiting high school kids for the last several years. (Just another reason why this hire was such a huge gamble, some would say unnecessary gamble by Fowler.)

    Gene – I’d also say that the part of the reason that folks are concerned w/ the direction of our program has been a lack of fundamentals, intensity, execution and preparation since Sid has arrived. Make no mistake about it – there have been games where Sid and the players have played w/ great intensity, but for just as many – the games have looked like a chore. FWIW, I haven’t seen that so far this year (our effort thus far seems pretty good), but it can still go either way…and we really haven’t hit the spot where his teams have struggled in the first 2 years – the second half of the ACC season.

    I think the wolfpack nation would be more optimistic about the future if we thought that we were going to see a team that played w/ toughness and intensity each night out. I’m afraid if we were going to see that, we would have already seen it. While talent is critical, the way a team plays should be a reflection of its coach – especially after 3 years.

    Unfortunately, I think it speaks volumes about the current state of NC State basketball that our future seems to be tied to signing the 2 top high school basketball prospects in the country.

  9. Pack1998 12/23/2008 at 1:46 PM #

    Our program and our coaching staff should have no excuses for not having a program good enough to complete for the NCAA by year 3. Great coaches turn it around quickly.

    That being stated . . . I am optimistic about Lowe and the direction of the program based on what I have heard recently. BUT, if we continue to hear we need 2 more years of rebuilding and recruiting we should all turn pessimistic. Great coaches and staffs don’t need 5 years to accumulate 5 players to complete for NCAA tournament bids.

    The season is still very, very early and losing to 2 top 25 team (Marq. almost top 25) leaves nothing to judge too critically yet.

    The ACC schedule and they way we compete week to week through it will be the true indicator on the direction of the program. We ain’t going to compete for the top half of the ACC, but being mid-tier with a few good wins would be positive and may put us on the bubble.

    This team reminds me of some the Herb Sendek teams in years past (e.g. a few players on the team that we are overly optimistic about, sketchy guard play with slowness on the defensive end, a need to shot well to beat a good team, and of course being in the ACC mid-tier).

  10. howlie 12/23/2008 at 1:47 PM #

    “When you see the light at the end of the tunnel…

    …it’s a train coming straight at you from the other side.”

  11. cooldrip 12/23/2008 at 1:48 PM #

    For all that, Lawson was still a frosh. So were Jay Williams and Bobby Hurley at Duke. Did Paulus start as a frosh? Vasquez at Maryland, but can’t remember how they finished that year. Chris Paul at Wake. Did Corchiani start as a freshman? Oh yeah, Kenny Anderson and Jarrett Jack at Ga Tech.

    There have been a few young PGs succeed in the ACC; I think it’s as much about leadership and moxie as it is about talent and athleticism.

  12. kyjelly 12/23/2008 at 1:50 PM #

    The more I see it the more I am convinced that the success we had in the second half of Sids first season had more to do with our point guards health than Sids coaching ability.

  13. Classof89 12/23/2008 at 1:52 PM #

    The names you guys are throwing out just prove my point. Julius Mays may be lots of things, but he’s no Corchiani, Chris Paul, or Ty Lawson. Again, I challenge anyone to name a freshman point guard who (1) wasn’t a High School All American and (2) played on a team that finished .500 or better in ACC play.

  14. Noah 12/23/2008 at 1:55 PM #

    Can you name a freshman point guard in the history of the ACC who has started for a successful team (I define successful as .500 or better in the league). It doesn’t happen. And if anyone does come up with any names, they will be most likely some of the best players in the history of the league, which Mays is probably not.

    Off the top of my head —

    NC State:
    Justin Gainey
    Chris Corchiani
    Ishua Benjamin
    Curtis Marshall
    Sidney Lowe (I think)

    UNC:
    Ed Cota
    Ty Lawson
    Raymond Felton
    King Rice
    Derrick Phelps

    Clemson:
    Terrell McIntyre
    Grayson Marshall

    Georgia Tech:
    Tony Akins
    Kenny Anderson
    Travis Best
    Mark Price
    Craig Neal
    Stephon Marbury

    Dook:
    Bobby Hurley
    Tommy Amaker
    Jason Williams
    Chris Duhon

    UVA:
    Cory Alexander
    Othell Wilson
    Majestic Mapp

    Maryland:
    Steve Blake

    Wake:
    Derrick McQueen
    Taron Downey

    That’s off the top of my head. I’m sure a more thorough search would reveal plenty more.

  15. Wulfpack 12/23/2008 at 1:55 PM #

    “We ain’t going to compete for the top half of the ACC, but being mid-tier with a few good wins would be positive and may put us on the bubble.”

    Going to take more than a few with no strong out of conference wins. More like 9+ and a win or two in the ACC tourney.

    Davidson is no longer ranked, FWIW.

    We can skin the cat and project all we want but the fact of the matter is we have got to start playing a lot better if we are going to have any chance at posteason play.

  16. WTNY 12/23/2008 at 1:58 PM #

    When I chose this nickname eons ago I should have chosen WTYANY — Wait ‘Til Year After Next Year. Sigh.

  17. Gene 12/23/2008 at 1:58 PM #

    By comparison of our 2006 and 2007 classes to Wake Forest:

    2006 Bartosz Lewandowski and Dennis Horner

    2007 Javier Gonzalez, Tracy Smith, J.J. Hickson, and Johnny Thomas, with transfers Farnold Degand and Marques Johnson.

    Johnson, Hickson, and Lewandowski are no longer here. Degand and Thomas had season ending injuries and aren’t 100% this year.

    Compare and contrast the impact of our ’06 and ’07 classes and to Wake’s and let me know if there’s a big shock why we’re worse off.

    If our ’09 and ’10 classes are gang buster good, like what WFU pulled in in ’06 and ’07, we should be where WFU is on ’11. We just have to be patient and bashing the program for the obvious – we are bad – seems a waste of energy.

  18. Noah 12/23/2008 at 2:06 PM #

    Again, I challenge anyone to name a freshman point guard who (1) wasn’t a High School All American and (2) played on a team that finished .500 or better in ACC play.

    Steve Blake, Taron Downey, and Terrell McIntyre were afterthoughts completely and all three did it.

    Corchiani was a top-50 guy, but I don’t remember him being an All-American. Monroe and Sean Green were both ranked higher. I don’t remember

    Tony Akins was not a HS AA and Tech finished just below your threshold his freshman year.

    It’s a stupid argument. There have been plenty of freshmen point guards who did well.

  19. eas 12/23/2008 at 2:11 PM #

    Another year and another PG problem (lack of one). After two coaches and many years in between it still amazes me that we can’t have a decent PG. Mays is better than Degand & Javi at this point and should get the minutes. Degand is just really off of his game and he looks very bad out there.

    Two things we have struggled with forever, NO point guard and no quarter back. We finally found a quarter back, so maybe this is the year we find a PG? Doubtfull but maybe Mays will turn out to be good (for a freshman).

    Fells is the same every year and is non-existant after a couple of dunks and a few three’s. He is basically the glimmerman…Now you see him and now you don’t. Waste of talent but hey it’s his to waste.

    Let’s hope Mays keeps progressing.

  20. Noah 12/23/2008 at 2:15 PM #

    Digging a little deeper: Add Clyde Austin to the list. Jeff Jones of UVA is another one. Daniel Ewing of Dook is another.

  21. whitefang 12/23/2008 at 2:15 PM #

    I just hope we have a chance to be known as a “football school” in my lifetime. That chance may be slim, but its the best chance we have. Is it September yet?

  22. choppack1 12/23/2008 at 2:22 PM #

    “If our ‘09 and ‘10 classes are gang buster good, like what WFU pulled in in ‘06 and ‘07, we should be where WFU is on ‘11. We just have to be patient…”

    I hope you are kidding. Haven’t we been patient long enough?

  23. Gene 12/23/2008 at 2:28 PM #

    “Haven’t we been patient long enough?”

    Who knows…I just don’t see what carping about the obvious will achieve…

    Regarding kidding, WFU was considered dead, as a program after Chris Paul left. Prosser ropes in a good six man class for 2006, leaving his successor something to work with. Two years later WFU is an elite ACC team again.

    If our ’09 and ’10 class are good, it’ll take a few years of experience to get players up to speed, but there is a light at the end of our dark, depressing, tunnel. Just my opinion FWIW.

  24. pakfanistan 12/23/2008 at 2:32 PM #

    Anybody saying that it only takes three years to turn around a program needs to remember that next year will be Lowe’s fourth year coaching, but only his third recruiting class.

    Also, we didn’t hire a great coach, we hired Sidney Lowe. I think there’s as much evidence for him becoming the great coach that we want as there is against.

    His teams have show flashes of offensive brilliance. It’s rare that we come out of a time out and don’t put easy points on the board. I think that’s a good sign.

    The team is playing harder and more together this year than last year. I think that’s a good sign.

    I think last year was awful, but I also think it was an anomaly.

    Personnel wise, we just don’t have what it takes. Some of that’s recruiting, and some of that is just bad luck. It’s hard to argue that Degand wasn’t showing significant improvement last year before he was hurt. We wouldn’t have won the games against South Carolina and Villanova without him. Having a healthy Degand last year and a healthy Degand with a year of experience mitigates Javi not panning out.

    Then, when you look at the SG and SF spots, we have one guy that could play either spot and then nobody after him. Maybe the plan was to leave Fells at the 2 and use JT at the 3? Maybe we expected Horner to not be gangly as hell?

    Who knows….There are about 30 different, “if only” scenarios that had the potential to completely change the way this team looks right now.

    If only Ced and Brack had stayed…

    If only Werner and Davis hadn’t decommited…

    If only Chris Wright had stayed committed…

    If only Degand hadn’t gotten hurt…

    If only we had offered Chris Warren…

    Meh, I’m willing to give it more time, if only because we don’t have any other option at the moment.

  25. Classof89 12/23/2008 at 2:35 PM #

    Come on…Corchiani was a McD’s All-american. Noah, you cant’ be seriously arguing that you think Julius Mays can lead this team to 8-8 or better in the ACC…

    Many of the players on your list were All-americans and highly sought after recruits. Marbury? All-american. Steve Blake? People cried on here for years that we couldn’t land him. Curtis marshall? You can’t be serious…Marshall played on some of the worst teams in NC State history. Osh Benjamin? top 10 guard in the country coming out of HS. Daniel Ewing? top 50 recruit. Who else wanted Julius Mays?

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