BJD’s Basketball Program Thoughts (UPDATE: Confirmed – Ferguson Out 3-6 Weeks)

First, stop watching this team as if had (or has) a chance to be good. It doesn’t. Whatever long-shot chance NC State ever had went down the drain when we first saw Farnold’s knee in action (he simply can’t cut on it playing defense). Keep in mind that our best guard, by far, is Trevor Ferguson. How can a team be good when that is the case? Depressingly, we received an e-mail last night noting that Trevor broke his arm or wrist during the Marquette game (kudos to him for finishing). UPDATE: Per the N&O’s “ACC Now” blog, Ferguson has a broken bone in his non-shooting hand, and will be out 3-6 weeks. Shit.

So, what do you look for this year? Baby steps. I see them. For the most part, State plays hard for 40 minutes (don’t confuse that with playing well or playing smart). The gameplans make sense, at least to me. There’s just not much we can do when the opposition makes adjustments. Subjectively, I don’t hate watching this team play, and am not embarrassed that they wear the uniform of my alma mater. Couldn’t say that last year.

Is this progress? I think so. We haven’t lost to any crap teams, unlike last year (ECU, New Orleans). We haven’t mailed it in. There’s just no way to do much more than that with the personnel currently in place.

Which leads me to 2009-10. This is when we need to see a great leap forward. We will have much better players in place, and at least one plus player at the guard position (Lorenzo Brown). If Lowe’s gameplans are in fact good, and he’s learned how to reach and motivate college players, then the 2009-10 will win some games, and make the NCAA tournament. Until then, we have to watch games from a different point of view. Take a Xanax if you need one.

About BJD95

1995 NC State graduate, sufferer of Les and MOC during my entire student tenure. An equal-opportunity objective critic and analyst of Wolfpack sports.

08-09 Basketball

185 Responses to BJD’s Basketball Program Thoughts (UPDATE: Confirmed – Ferguson Out 3-6 Weeks)

  1. Rick 12/23/2008 at 9:04 AM #

    That stinks about Ferg. Mays is playing fairly well.

    I agree that we are not a good team. We are playing hard and that is better. We are beating cupcakes and that is better. I guess I am not embarrassed which is better.

    What concerns me are the decisions our coaching staff is making. Granted I do not know the whole story but there were some serious errors that lead me to question whether he can make us a good team. I am not talking about deep thinking stuff.
    Like you do not have your best shooter throw the ball in when you are down three (granted at .4 seconds it is all but irrelevant but still).
    Like your best shooter, who is 9 for 10, should shoot the ball more than 4 times in the second half.
    Like who you have out there to defend at the end of the game.

    I am not blaming the coaches for turnovers or things they cannot directly control.

    I truly hope Sid proves me wrong and to be honest he is not going anywhere anytime soon so I just hope he learns from his mistakes.

    He certainly seems to have learned from the ones he made last year.

  2. Classof89 12/23/2008 at 9:14 AM #

    5-11 in the ACC this year, and Lowe will deserve COY. I simply can’t see this team hanging with UNC, Wake, or Duke, so thats 0-5 right there. Hope we don’t play Clemson twice this year, or that will be 0-7 (maybe 1-6 if a miracle happens)

  3. ncsumatman 12/23/2008 at 9:15 AM #

    I disagree that 2009-10 will be the year of improvement. Next year we fix 1 thing, and that is having a guard that by all accounts can create his own shot. But outside of Tracy Smith, what better players are you talking about? Mays looks ok, but its too early to tell how he’ll develop. Williams is no world beater either. So where does our skill improve, Horner having more player time, freshmen Howell and Wood?

    For all their deficiencies, next year’s team will not have the talent of Costner, McCauley and Fells. You’ll have to wait until 10-11, when the incoming class are sophmores, the arrival of a true blue chipper in CJ and a friekin point guard in Harrow.

  4. Classof89 12/23/2008 at 9:18 AM #

    and all these future scenarios are BPC (best possible case) not taking into account the usual occurences of career-ending or limiting injuries (DeGand, for example), early departures, players flunking out or transferring, etc. I for one see absolutely no hope or light at the end of the tunnel. Why would John Wall want to step into this mess? By the end of this season, the RBC will be half empty for any ACC visitor not wearing blue, and the criticism of the staff will be mounting as we endure another bottom third ACC finish.

    I caught the second half of the game last night. What I saw is a team devoid of leadership–by that meaning smart players who step up and make big plays when a game is on the line. McCauley the heart and soul of this team? He singlehandedly handed Marquette the W on a platter…as for Mays, he is going to absolutely be eaten alive in ACC play. I wonder what the ACC team record is for turnovers in a season?

  5. wolfonthehill 12/23/2008 at 9:23 AM #

    I am about 10 years past the point where I ever get optimistic about next year. Know why? Because this year WAS next year 9 months ago… and we were saying the same things then.

    “Once we get CJ Williams, and get Farnold back, and have a healthy Johnny Thomas, and if Julius Mays can even contribute a little bit… and we get rid of the cancer that JJ apparently is… THEN we’ll be ready to compete again!”

    And it just doesn’t happen. Sorry for the pessimism.

  6. packbackr04 12/23/2008 at 9:24 AM #

    javi is terrible, Julius is a much more promising PG. let him play and develop.

  7. newt 12/23/2008 at 9:30 AM #

    We lost to a top-25 team on a last-second shot. I think that’s significant progress.

    Our previous NCAA bubble teams would have the same record against the same opponents as this team.

    It’s only December. There is lots and lots of basketball to be played and many more ups and downs that we will have this year.

    Stay tuned.

  8. Alpha Wolf 12/23/2008 at 9:31 AM #

    I think as goes Mays, so will go the Wolfpack. He’ll improve as the year goes on.

    Still though, it is depressing to have to once again have the station tuned to WTNY, the official flagship station of Wolfpack basketball.

  9. SEAT.5.F.2 12/23/2008 at 9:34 AM #

    Trevor Fergueson, where was the milk in your house as a child?

    No predictions of the teams record from here out, I hope they win them all. All I know is that we just lost the best 2 in the program since Brian Nieman (right now a frosh CJ= Sr Nieman in ’06) Can anyone really dispute this?

  10. Wolf-n-Atl 12/23/2008 at 9:35 AM #

    If Davidson and Marquette are top 30 teams, then there is no reason why this team couldn’t be a top 30 team. Both of these games were winnable and both were lost in the final minutes. Ben misses 2 free throws and we were careless with the ball all night.

    For the most part I am happy with the way the team is playing. It is great to see Costner getting his game back.

    My one coaching concern is when Sid puts in the 2nd lineup for an extended amount of time. I think he is still used to the nba where you play for the 4th quarter. There were points in the game where we could have extended our 7 pt lead and possible broke the will of Marquette.

    I know our conference schedule isn’t an easy path, but I still hold hope that this team will pull out enough wins to be a bubble team. At this point we have to win against UF and hope to get some upsets in league play.

    I won’t write this season off until I have to.

  11. sautz 12/23/2008 at 9:37 AM #

    Beating the dead horse:
    Before we make any *major* steps forward we need to get rid of Fowler. His every day performance is bad enough, but if it comes to the point where he ever has to make a coaching decision again (women’s bball is on the horizon) we are doomed to another 10+ years of “rebuilding”.

  12. backinpack 12/23/2008 at 9:39 AM #

    McCauley the heart and soul of this team? He singlehandedly handed Marquette the W on a platter…

    Classof89, I completely disagree. Missing his free-throws down the stretch was tough, but I’m not sure it had an impact on the end of the game. Maybe if we were up by 1 or 2 we would have fouled to prevent the 3-point shot, but I don’t know what Sid would have done.

    Overall I thought McCauley had a nice game last night. I thought he played well on defense (though most of their points were coming from the 1,2,3 spots) and had a nice offensive game. The Warriors packed it in and everyone trying to play inside had a tough time.

  13. Wulfpack 12/23/2008 at 9:46 AM #

    We have failed in our only two real tests up to date (Davidson and Marquette). These are two very average teams that will be high (as in 10, 11, 12) seeds in the NCAA tournament. Both of them were winnable but we did not make the plays. I am not attacking Sid but it just seems we are developing the habit of finding ways to lose these kinds of games. Year 3 and same old story.

    As far as the tournament talk goes, we are going to have to win the majority of our games in the ACC, end of story. We have posted no significant wins and the selection committee will take notice. We are going to have to turn some heads in ACC play to have a chance. Here’s how it lines up today IMHO:

    UNC – 2 Losses
    WFU – 2 Losses
    Duke – Loss
    Clemson – Loss

    *Clearly, those four teams are far better than us at this stage. I do not see a win here. That’s six near-guaranteed losses in my mind.

    The post peason prospects for our season will hing on our games with the following opponents: Florida, FSU, VT, MD, UVA, GT (2), BC (2) and Miami (2).

    That’s 11 games that could go one way or the other. We are currently 7-2 and I would expect easy wins against Loyola (lost to Davidson by 30), Towson and NCCU. If my math is correct that would be 10 sure wins.

    We must win the majority of those 11 games and at least one in the ACC tournament to have any chance. We are going to need 20+ to get any consideration given our weak non-conference schedule. It starts at Florida on January 3rd. Last chance for a decent non-conference win. Otherwise we are going to have to be gangbusters in conference play.

  14. Noah 12/23/2008 at 9:47 AM #

    I think we’ve become Syracuse football. Great tradition. Some of the best players in the sport played here. Days of glory that we can all remember….and not a shot in hell of ever seeing them again.

    We’ve gone from making the same old mistakes over and over again to making all new mistakes — and calling that progress.

  15. PAJ 12/23/2008 at 9:53 AM #

    I don’t see how anyone can say McCauley had a good game last night. He scored 8 points and only took 5 shots not to mention his last minute melt down.

    And what’s this about Degand not executing the trap properly on the last play? How can that happen? I think we’re better than last year, but I am still waiting to see someone show they can concentrate and get it done at crunch time.

  16. BJD95 12/23/2008 at 9:54 AM #

    I’ve seen lots of criticism of the last play – which pretty much f-ing worked! On a desperation play, I think the passer is much more important than the shooter. And do you really think Costner is the guy you want to try catching and releasing in less than a second? That’s not how he operates.

  17. SEAT.5.F.2 12/23/2008 at 9:59 AM #

    Fells at the 2 NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!

  18. Tiew 12/23/2008 at 10:05 AM #

    Hah, I actually created an account to say something like that BJD95, and you beat me to it. The pass had to go across the court and be perfect, and it was. Having Costner throw it in was the right move.

    As to the game, that was a hard loss. Still, I’m enjoying watching the team a lot more this year than last year. I feel like they’re giving it everything they have. Costner was a blast to watch. Ferguson played with some great intensity and toughness. I enjoyed seeing Mayes push the ball up aggressively, and I felt like him doing that made our offensive positions much more aggressive and dynamic.

  19. RegularExpression 12/23/2008 at 10:09 AM #

    Last night there were a couple times when I wondered where the scoring was going to come from with the lineup we fielded. I think we have 4 good offensive players – Costner, Fells, McCauley and Tracy Smith and we should have at least 2 and preferably 3 of those guys on the court at all times. Even with a healthy Ferg we are not going to get much guard scoring. The most we can hope for is that our guards limit turnovers, unlike last night. If Costner leaves after this year next year has the makings of a very loooong year.

    Is there any official word on Ferguson’s injury at this point? I haven’t seen anything so far.

  20. cowdog 12/23/2008 at 10:18 AM #

    In an attempt to be a realist and not a pessimist BJD is right.
    We gave the game away again. Poor ball handling ( a continued recurring theme ) with seemingly no end in sight. Poor decisions in the post ( not recognizing the double team coming. )Hell, Smith and McCaully put the ball on the the floor several times and went right into the teeth of it. It’s one thing to draw the double team, another to force yourself into it. The ever present stretch of scoring drought that is a State anthem. ( This latest one brought on by poor substitution patterns that left the floor void of anyone we can call scorers.)
    Here”s some positive realism, though. We lost on a last second 3 to a mid tier Big East team on the strength of atypical rebounding and great shooting from Costner. Question is, will there be a consistantcy along that same line?

  21. Wulfpack 12/23/2008 at 10:19 AM #

    I just do not get how Fells continues to waste away his God-given talent. A guy like that should not be a bystander that happens to make a play here and a play there. He should be a FORCE that defenses should have to deal with EVERY night. He’s just totally out of whack mentally and it’s a darn shame.

    I feel badly for Javi but he is just not the guy to lead us. That is 100% clear today. Mays had the upper hand but still room for loads of improvement.

    Why can’t we find a guard that can score, or at least pentrate and make a play? How do all of these other teams seem to find them? Our guards combined for 6 points. James had 18 for Marquette. Ball game. James also had 6 assists to our combined 2. James had 2 turnovers to our combined 6.

    BJD: We did find such a guard. His name is Lorenzo Brown. It sucks that we couldn’t find one sooner, I agree.

    I am very sorry to ear about Fergie. If he’s the best we’ve got there, then we are going to need him. He played hard. Hope he can recover.

  22. Gene 12/23/2008 at 10:21 AM #

    “If Costner leaves after this year next year has the makings of a very loooong year. ”

    We really do need Costner back next year. Other than Smith, there isn’t anyone I really want to sub in a game, as a back up. The rest of the second unit isn’t very good.

  23. packalum44 12/23/2008 at 10:27 AM #

    hahahahaha, I wish I could shut my eyes and when I open them, it is football season. Guys and gals, Lee F. took a huge gamble in hiring Lowe…we MUST have a new AD in the next 2 years or I enter a state of perpetual depression and check myself into Dorethea Dix (or whatever the new place is called 🙂 )

    The guard who put the dagger in our heart says,
    “They’ve got a great coach,” James said. “He’s great at (isolating) his players.”

    I agree. Lowe can isolate the hell out of our players!

    Unrelated but had to add this:
    http://www.bustersports.com/accposts.aspx?id=1633&blogid=77
    “Butch Davis, North Carolina – Butch always wants cash, we know that. His wallet is never full enough, but neither is his roster. Carolina’s hired gun would like to see about eight current players take their football elsewhere to open up more slots for the 3,456,221 recruits from whom he has gained commitments.”

  24. newt 12/23/2008 at 10:32 AM #

    Now that I’ve defended the team in general, here are some tactical comments on the game.

    McCauley got 4 rebounds. That seems low. Once again, Simon Harris got as many rebounds in 10 minutes as McCauley in 28.

    18 turnovers is too many. Plenty of blame to spread around for that one.

    We continue to score efficiently, which has been Lowe’s trademark thus far. It would be exciting to see what kind of numbers we could run up with some excellent, healthy guards.

    Another nice game by Smith, looking for Horner.

  25. wufpup76 12/23/2008 at 10:37 AM #

    “… and not a shot in hell of ever seeing them again. ”

    ^Disagree with this. There’s a huge diference in trying to sell playing football in New York in the Big East vs. selling playing ACC basketball in a nice stadium vs. ACC competition

    We may never see glory days again, but I won’t say there’s no shot in hell … That’s a defeatist attitude that says we may as well not care and therefore should just close down the program

Leave a Reply