Offseason Positional Analysis (SF)

As we wait for football to heat up, it’s as good a time as any to analyze the coming basketball season. Over the next few weeks, we will analyze the logical rotation and depth chart, based on position. We analyzed the point guard position and the two guard slot previously. Next is the biggest wildcard for 2008-09 – small forward.

For better or worse, Gavin Grant logged the vast majority of minutes last year at the 3. Sometimes he was good, sometimes not. He was basically Courtney Fells with slightly more passing ability and a weaker shot. And, potentially a significant part of last year’s poor team chemistry. Brandon Costner and Dennis Horner also tried to play the 3 last year, with an emphasis on the word tried. Both proved woefully inadequate (from a quickness standpoint) for wing duty. Which makes the calculus a bit easier going forward.

You also no doubt noticed that I think Courtney Fells should play zero minutes at guard this year. Where should he play? Right here. Fells is long and athletic, and has shown decent rebounding ability. He should be able to defend opposing wing players, as long as his head is on straight. If Gavin Grant can play the 3, there’s no reason why Courtney Fells can’t do the same.

By moving Fells to the 3, you shield against his weaknesses (very poor passer, weak secondary ballhandler, doesn’t move well without the ball), and allow his strengths to shine through (outside shot, athletic defender, solid rebounder). It’s much less disruptive to the offense to have your SF stand around on offense than it is to have your SG do the same. In fact, Fells could be very useful that way, constantly spotting up for his deadly shot – with no pressure to help distribute the ball. Of course, it would still be helpful if he remembered to move on offense, but after watching him for three years, I’m not counting on it.

It is very much a wildcard – Fells could blossom and finally tap into his deep reservoir of talent. Or he could candy ass it, and continue to frustrate Wolfpack fans like few other players ever have. The problem is that there is no real Plan B. NC State has to try this experiment, and it has to work. Otherwise, sucking is inevitable.

Simon Harris can be useful in short spurts, but he’s exposed when in the game for long stretches. His “bull in a china shop” physique and mentality are a nice change of pace from the lithe, laid back Fells. Harris can defend and rebound. However, he can’t be asked to contribute much on the offensive end. Unlike with Fells, opposing defenses can (and will) leave Harris alone, setting up frequent 4-on-5 halfcourt sets.

More theoretical depth is supplied by CJ Williams (low-rated true freshman) and Marques Johnson. I think it’s a bad idea to count on CJ, although he would probably have to take major minutes in the event of a Fells injury. MJ should be able to handle the 3 physically, but is only a marginally better offensive player than Harris – and without his killer instinct. Johnny Thomas would be a very significant part of the rotation, if not for his degenerative knee. Nobody that SFN talks to seems the least bit optimistic about his recovery.

Who should start? Courtney Fells, without question. Will the position switch spark life into the great enigma? If so, this could easily be State’s best position. If not, it could be a hole as black as SG. As noted above, there is no legitimate Plan B. Hold your breath, folks.

What should the rotation be? Fells needs to play 35+ minutes per game. Against the Dukes and UNCs of the world, it could easily be 38-40. Harris should see about 5 mpg, but if more backup minutes are needed, CJ and MJ will have to be pressed into duty. Avert your eyes if that happens.

Position Grade: C+

About BJD95

1995 NC State graduate, sufferer of Les and MOC during my entire student tenure. An equal-opportunity objective critic and analyst of Wolfpack sports.

08-09 Basketball

30 Responses to Offseason Positional Analysis (SF)

  1. nycfan 07/25/2008 at 9:01 AM #

    I think the flex offense could work quite well for this particular team … assuming they executed. That would make good use of McCauley’s passing and Costner’s inside out abilities and could open things up for Smith to dive to the basket for garbage points. Probably not ideal for Horner or Ferguson, though Fergie might get more open looks from the perimeter in a flex. The biggest issue is that some one on the perimeter needs to be able to shoot the three out of the flex or everyone will just collapse into the middle and it will be a horrible slog.

    BTW, how do you guys think the (slightly) moved back 3 point line will affect State (if at all)?

  2. wufpup76 07/25/2008 at 9:21 AM #

    “BTW, how do you guys think the (slightly) moved back 3 point line will affect State (if at all)?”

    It’s my opinion that this move will have minimal impact on this year’s State squad … We had a terrible offensive attack last season, and until I see anything different I think most rule changes wouldn’t affect this team on offense 🙁

    Overall, I like the new rule – hopefully more emphasis will be put on running fast breaks and / or running an inside-out attack when in your halfcourt offense … The mid-range jumper may even make a comeback … As long as Sidney remains our coach, I think this rule is ok for NC State as Sidney favors an up-tempo / inside-based attack if he has the personnel he wants … I’ll be interested to see how this affects Duke and their perimeter-based attack – and whether they have to adjust any at all

    As with any rule change, there’s always the chance that the change doesn’t impact the game the way it was intended – so it could be an interesting year from that standpoint alone … I’m already looking forward to seeing some stats showing how this change is impacting teams once the season gets going, particularly teams that run their offense to generate 3-point shots like Duke, Belmont, etc …

  3. nycfan 07/25/2008 at 11:00 AM #

    Dook already shot from well behind the 3-point line, so I wonder if it will make much of an offensive difference; defensively, could be a different story, depending on whether it stretches their defense or takes enough shooters out of the equation to allow them to pack back and protect their soft middle.

  4. wufpup76 07/25/2008 at 11:54 AM #

    ^Yes, more spacing on the floor for an opponent’s offensive attacks *should* equate to more fouls called against Duke w/ their high-pressure man defense … *should* – but this is Dooook we’re talking about

  5. Trip 07/26/2008 at 9:31 AM #

    I think you should combine all of these into one post when all is said and done, and “Sticky” it near the top for new people. 🙂

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