A professional gambler’s view of the Tim Donaghy mess

You know that we like to go just a little beyond the original story with links and insight that are a little deeper than the story itself.

With that said, we ran across this blog entry that includes some links to the news stories if you have an interest in following them.

There is a ton of good stuff in the entry. Just take a look at just one of the answers of the interviewee:

As far as the retroactive analysis in the article you linked to goes, some of the line moves that are mentioned the line moves were due to injuries. After the scandal broke I have done a lot of research regarding what games were likely fixed and which ones weren’t. I have also made some contacts with some bookmakers who have given me information on some of the games Donaghy bet — some of the stuff in that article is just conjecture and speculation, but some of it is accurate.

I can say with a large degree of certainty that this game was one of the more blatant fixes. That Phoenix vs. New York game was a game that I was told was bet by the crew associated with [alleged Donaghy co-conspirator James “Baa Baa”] Batista, it was also a game where Phoenix shot 14 free throws in regulation and New York shot 36.

There aren’t that many games in the last five or six years where a team had a 20 point free throw edge. In a sample of 6,373 games I show there being 167 games where the home team shot 20 more free throws than the visiting team, and 78 where the visiting team shot more. I hate trotting out numbers to prove my point because you can cherry-pick whatever statistics you want, but I think if someone with an objective eye goes and watches this game, focusing on Donaghy especially they’ll come away thinking that it was pretty clear the Knicks got a huge advantage in the game.

Here are couple of other Tim Donaghy games that may make for some interesting viewing. Miami at New York on February 26, 2007. There was a 39 to eight free throw disparity in that one.

Tim Donaghy refereed a 2003 Knicks at Lakers game that had a 47 to six free throw disparity.

In a 2006 Orlando at Utah game refereed by Tim Donaghy, there were two technicals called against Orlando in the final two seconds of the game.

Most of the information I have about Donaghy is from the 2006-2007 season and its plain as day to me that Donaghy did change the outcome of the games, I don’t see how any rational human being could argue otherwise.

Additionally, this link from our original entry on this story in the summer of 2007 also includes quite a few links to past entries regarding some college officials that would be of interest.

Lastly…this is what we call a tease… a member of the SFN community has written a fascinating analysis analyzing a proposed betting system tied to the officiating of an Atlantic Coast Conference referee that would be quite relevant for us to run in today’s environment. Stay tuned over the next week or so as we work on bringing it to the blog.

About StateFans

'StateFansNation' is the shared profile used by any/all of the dozen or so authors that contribute to the blog. You may not always agree with us, but you will have little doubt about where we stand on most issues. Please follow us on Twitter and FaceBook

General NCS Basketball

32 Responses to A professional gambler’s view of the Tim Donaghy mess

  1. WolftownVA81 06/13/2008 at 11:48 AM #

    Now that we’re in the slow news period of the summer, stand by for Congressional hearings. If they did it for steriods, they’ll do it for officiating. After all, cheaters are cheaters (unless they are politicians). 🙂

  2. EverettBeez 06/13/2008 at 1:58 PM #

    Do you think there are enough NBA fans out there to make Congressional grandstanding, sorry, Hearings newsworthy enough for Congress to actually do it? I’ve got my doubts.

    But seriously, does NBA have the anti-trust exemption that baseball does? If they don’t, then what excuse would Congress use to “investigate?”

  3. Noah 06/13/2008 at 4:03 PM #

    But seriously, does NBA have the anti-trust exemption that baseball does? If they don’t, then what excuse would Congress use to “investigate?”

    No. Congress has oversight over baseball, so the steroids hearings were at least somewhat their business. This would be a matter for the courts.

    David Stearn fails to understand that the problem here is not that games ARE being fixed. It’s that people BELIEVE that games are being fixed.

  4. John Q StateFan 06/13/2008 at 5:53 PM #

    Screw congress. The FBI can investigate anything it damn well chooses too. Since most of this ties to corruption and organized crime, they should be all over it. This is not just a story because it involves a major sport. This is not steroids or taping. This is real crime. If what Donaghy says is true about refs intentionally extending a playoff is true, that is a really big deal.

  5. john of sparta 06/13/2008 at 7:40 PM #

    “it takes a thief”
    how did our internet site get hacked?
    ask a hacker.
    Tim is Telling the Truth.
    DS can’t handle the truth.

  6. EverettBeez 06/13/2008 at 11:22 PM #

    Building on on what NOAH said, here is a link that shows most fans believe the NBA is fixed – and so the question becomes if the fans think its fixed, and they still watch, does it matter, a la wrestling?

    http://adage.com/article?article_id=127759

  7. EverettBeez 06/13/2008 at 11:29 PM #

    I need to give a hat tip to Instapundit where I ran into that link. web curiosity and all. http://pajamasmedia.com/instapundit/

Leave a Reply