The Bubble Returns

07-08 Basketball42

We’ve seen some surprises (both good and bad) and a lot of movement since our last look around the ACC. We’ve also found the bubble once again…though I’m sure the Twerps aren’t real happy about that. So, let’s start with the conference as a whole and look at the big movers since our last look at the conference.

acc-update-2-25.jpg

MIAMI
So how does a team move from “OUT” to “IN” from one look to the next? Well it’s easier said than done…stop losing and start winning. Miami went from losing 6 of 7 to a four-game win streak; including home wins over Duke and Maryland.

I’m not confident that Miami will stay “IN”, but sitting at .500 in conference and a top-30 RPI ranking….they’ve certainly done more than enough to earn the “label”. Their remaining schedule is not overly difficult Clemson (A), UVA (H), BC (H), and FSU (A)…so their fate is squarely in their own hands.

MARYLAND
Well, the last two weeks haven’t been much fun for Terp fans. A nice 10-2 streak somehow gave way to losing three out of the last four games….including a home loss to VT. While this loss doesn’t count as “embarrassing”, it’s exactly the type of game a team has to win if you want to move/stay at the top of the conference. Instead, Maryland has fallen right into the mess in the middle.

No one is likely to forget their road win in Chapel Hill, but that is their only win against the RPI Top-50. A 5-5 record against teams ranked 51-100 won’t impress anyone either. Maryland need to start winning…and soon. Winning at least two of their remaining games [WF(A), Clemson(H), UVA (A)] would greatly improve their outlook.

VIRGINIA TECH
VT has been running hot and cold for the last two months and right now they are on a two-game winning streak. A big road win against UMD and a home win against GT is enough to move them onto the bubble. Come March, I don’t expect anyone to be talking about the GT win…but this is the exactly the type of game that you cannot afford to lose if you want to see the NCAAT first-hand instead of on TV.

Check out VT’s season summary if you think that I am exaggerating about running hot and cold.

WAKE FOREST
The ACC’s third team with an RPI in the 60’s came up with a big home win against Duke. That got them some headlines and a three-game winning streak moved them onto the bubble. Now they have to finish strong or play in the NIT.

WF finishes up with UMD (H), GT (A), VT (A), and NCSU (H). So their remaining schedule is manageable and they will most likely deserve whatever post-season destination they end up with.

CONCLUSION
Is there a literary term that is equivalent to “SUB-TOTAL”? If there is, then that’s what this section should be called, because there is certainly no final word yet. There are definitely enough wins left for the contenders for the ACC to put 5 or 6 teams into the NCAAT. We’ll just have to keep watching and see how the final two weeks of the regular season shake out.

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

07-08 Basketball

42 Responses to The Bubble Returns

  1. Trip 02/26/2008 at 1:47 PM #

    I don’t see VT getting in. But that’s probably because that’s the only team all year that we’ve manhandled for an entire game.

  2. xphoenix87 02/26/2008 at 1:52 PM #

    POY will be Hansbrough, because he’s a media darling and is perceived as “the best player on the best team”

    POY should be Singletary, who is enormously talented, a clutch player down the stretch and a fantastic leader. However, he doesn’t wear blue and he has craptastic teammates, so he has no shot. I was having this discussion with a friend the other day, imagine Singletary on Duke. They’d be absolutely unstoppable.

  3. Texpack 02/26/2008 at 1:54 PM #

    Houston sits between Wake Forest and Virginia Tech in the RPI. They could potentially win 25 games and end up on the outside of the tournament looking in. Question to the committee – How can Memphis earn a number 1 seed playing in a conference where they are the only NCAA worthy team?

    Texas has wins over UCLA(A), Tennessee(N), along with an 11-2 Big 12 record. How can Memphis be in the number 1 seed discussion ahead of Texas. Both of these wins are better than the best win on Memphis’ schedule.

  4. Trip 02/26/2008 at 1:55 PM #

    POY = Hansbro.
    ROY = Hopefully someone other than Hickson. I’m selfish and I want to keep him here another year. 😛
    COY = Not sure yet.

  5. wufpup76 02/26/2008 at 2:06 PM #

    In general / historically, teams that have gotten in with higher RPI numbers are teams from the “power” conferences by virtue of playing strong teams in conference … It just looks better on the resume when you’re losing to Chapel Hill, Duke, Florida, etc …

    That’s not always the case (New Mexico got in one year with an RPI of close to 80 if you can believe that) but teams like VT, Wake, and Maryland should thank the Heavens above for being in the ACC when it comes to bubble time

    You mentioned 50+ RPI’s for some teams – that’s really pushing it when it comes to being selected … usually the only way you’re getting in then is if you’ve beaten a team or two in the RPI top 10 (such as Wake beating Duke or Md beating Chapel Hill college on the road) OR if you’ve played an extraoridinarily tough schedule (a LOT of road games and/or road wins) … Alabama got in one year with a record of 18-13, IIRC, due to having a great SOS (strength of schedule) … That’s analogous to Arizona this year

    The MVC is probably only a one bid league this year (Drake) UNLESS Drake loses in the MVC tourney (which there’s a good chance w/ decent teams like Southern Ill., Creighton, and Ill. State)

    I’m actually a fan of the “low” and/or “mid” major conferences getting more than one bid when it’s deserved … I know technically I shouldn’t since I’m a fan of a power conference school, but I like to see the “little” guys get their due when they earn it

    If you want to check out non-power conferences that will probably get more than one bid this season check out the A10, Mountain West, and WCC

    A10 – Xavier is a lock, URI, UMass, St. Joe’s, and poor Dayton are bubbles

    Mountain West – could have BYU, UNLV, and New Mexico

    WCC – Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s (Ca) are both in

    Davidson COULD get in from the SoCon if they lose in their tourney … Kent St. could get in from the MAC … and South Alabama could get in from the Sun Belt

    We (NC State) helped South Alabama indirectly – or directly RPI-wise I guses – by losing to fellow Sun Belt school New Orleans … at home 🙁

    Andy Glockner on Espn.com does a great job w/ his ‘Bubble Watch’ column … It breaks down ALL relevant teams’ chances … here’s the link if interested:

    http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch?id=69

    Sorry about the length of my post, guys 🙁 … I just find this time of year so fascinating and exciting … I really hope they don’t expand the tourny field

    go pack 🙂

  6. nycfan 02/26/2008 at 2:09 PM #

    I don’t think winning or losing ROY will sway Hickson’s decision. It is all about his draft status (right now, from what I have read, he is outside the lottery but solid first round).

  7. wufpup76 02/26/2008 at 2:13 PM #

    Texpack – I HATE Memphis – and I do mean hate, but they do merit consideration for a number one seed … as does Texas

    I, like you, would give the nod to Texas … but Memphis does have wins over Oklahoma, UConn, Cincy, USC, G’Town, and Arizona

    Most of those big wins for Memphis were on neutral or road courts, so I wouldn’t begrudge them gettng a 1 seed too much if it came to fruition

  8. nycfan 02/26/2008 at 2:51 PM #

    Also, FYI, I don’t think it should be a 2-man race for ACC ROY … if I had a vote, James Johnson of WFU would probably get it as of today.

    Here are the stats for ACC games only:

    PLAYER..PPG…RPG…TO..Blk…FG%….3FG%……… FT%
    Johnson..16.3..7.5..36..17…53.6%..39.5%(15-38)..62.5% (30-48)
    Singler..15.8..5.8..33..11…47.5%..39.7%(29-73)..78.8% (26-33)
    Hickson..13.2..9.5..35..19…49.6%..N/A(0-0)……62.2% (46-75)

  9. Canis_Lupis 02/26/2008 at 2:52 PM #

    I hope Hickson stays a few years, but you can’t blame him if he wants to leave. We’ll have another year with Hansblow *&$#@* as much as I hate it. Hey, maybe he’ll get injured next year. Have we got any good recruits coming to us next year? Guess we’ll be a football school.

  10. BJD95 02/26/2008 at 3:00 PM #

    If Hickson continues to project as solid first round, you can kiss him goodbye.

  11. ruffles31 02/26/2008 at 4:04 PM #

    wolfpup76, Memphis has beaten a lot of quality teams. The problem is that most of them were at Memphis. They beat UConn on the road and also beat USC on a neutral court. But wins over Georgetown, Arizona, and Oklahoma were all at Memphis. They are still a #1 seed without a doubt. However, they have not played a real demanding road schedule at all. Only 2 decent road games all year (at UConn and at Cincinnati). The at Cincy game is even debatable to being a decent road game.

    And then they go and lose at home to Tennessee in an interesting game where neither of UT’s top 2 players scored in double figures. Yet the Vols still won the game.

  12. Wulfpack 02/26/2008 at 4:16 PM #

    “POY should be Singletary”

    Kind of hard to give out an award to a player who has led his team to last place.

    I forgot all about James Johnson. He’s raw, but nasty.

  13. Texpack 02/26/2008 at 5:03 PM #

    Memphis had a narrow escape against UAB and took forever to put UH away at Memphis. I think the performance of teams from the power conferences over the years in the NCAAs has proven the value of playing good teams night in and night out in conference play. No way a team that shoots 59% from the line could get through the ACC schedule without at least 3 conference losses.

  14. VaWolf82 02/26/2008 at 5:08 PM #

    I wonder if the RPI rating will hurt teams like Maryland, WF, and Virginia Tech over teams in weaker conferences who have winning marks (Say a 12-4 2nd or 3rd place MVC or OVC team gets in over a .500 ACC team with a higher RPI).

    As you rightly point out…..the actual point at which the bubble bursts is not a static target. What happens in other conferences could impact on how many teams get bids from the ACC. I prefer the Dance Card when you want to get more complicated than the simple measures that I am using.

    http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

    One of the key areas that I take issue with The Dance Card is the way conference tournament games are included in their analysis. I think that it is relatively easy to show that ACCT wins (and sometimes losses) are more important than the regular season games against the same team(s).

  15. BladenWolf 02/26/2008 at 5:11 PM #

    Excellent analysis as always SFN.

    I think we get six teams to the dance since the conference ranks so high.

  16. chris92heel 02/26/2008 at 5:28 PM #

    POY – Tyler – 24 and 11 in conference play speaks for itself

    ROY – James Johnson – outscoring and outrebounding Singler in conference play

    COY – Gaudio or Haith or Greenberg – whichever team finishes highest. Dook has 8 mcdonald’s all-americans and were predicted to finish 2nd. So tell me again what a great job he’s done?

  17. turfpack 02/26/2008 at 5:55 PM #

    POY-Travelsalot-media darling in baby blue

    ROY- Hickson or Singler

    COY- Gaudio or Haith -if things continue 0n track for both programs.

    K -maybe, but 20 wins a season -normal puke year with K

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