The Bubble Returns

07-08 Basketball42

We’ve seen some surprises (both good and bad) and a lot of movement since our last look around the ACC. We’ve also found the bubble once again…though I’m sure the Twerps aren’t real happy about that. So, let’s start with the conference as a whole and look at the big movers since our last look at the conference.

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MIAMI
So how does a team move from “OUT” to “IN” from one look to the next? Well it’s easier said than done…stop losing and start winning. Miami went from losing 6 of 7 to a four-game win streak; including home wins over Duke and Maryland.

I’m not confident that Miami will stay “IN”, but sitting at .500 in conference and a top-30 RPI ranking….they’ve certainly done more than enough to earn the “label”. Their remaining schedule is not overly difficult Clemson (A), UVA (H), BC (H), and FSU (A)…so their fate is squarely in their own hands.

MARYLAND
Well, the last two weeks haven’t been much fun for Terp fans. A nice 10-2 streak somehow gave way to losing three out of the last four games….including a home loss to VT. While this loss doesn’t count as “embarrassing”, it’s exactly the type of game a team has to win if you want to move/stay at the top of the conference. Instead, Maryland has fallen right into the mess in the middle.

No one is likely to forget their road win in Chapel Hill, but that is their only win against the RPI Top-50. A 5-5 record against teams ranked 51-100 won’t impress anyone either. Maryland need to start winning…and soon. Winning at least two of their remaining games [WF(A), Clemson(H), UVA (A)] would greatly improve their outlook.

VIRGINIA TECH
VT has been running hot and cold for the last two months and right now they are on a two-game winning streak. A big road win against UMD and a home win against GT is enough to move them onto the bubble. Come March, I don’t expect anyone to be talking about the GT win…but this is the exactly the type of game that you cannot afford to lose if you want to see the NCAAT first-hand instead of on TV.

Check out VT’s season summary if you think that I am exaggerating about running hot and cold.

WAKE FOREST
The ACC’s third team with an RPI in the 60’s came up with a big home win against Duke. That got them some headlines and a three-game winning streak moved them onto the bubble. Now they have to finish strong or play in the NIT.

WF finishes up with UMD (H), GT (A), VT (A), and NCSU (H). So their remaining schedule is manageable and they will most likely deserve whatever post-season destination they end up with.

CONCLUSION
Is there a literary term that is equivalent to “SUB-TOTAL”? If there is, then that’s what this section should be called, because there is certainly no final word yet. There are definitely enough wins left for the contenders for the ACC to put 5 or 6 teams into the NCAAT. We’ll just have to keep watching and see how the final two weeks of the regular season shake out.

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

07-08 Basketball

42 Responses to The Bubble Returns

  1. cWOhLFrPAiCKs 02/25/2008 at 10:06 PM #

    Another march approaches, another march will pass without mention of NC State and NCAAT Bid in the same sentence.

    VaWolf82: Please keep your comments on target. Recruiting, “The Problem, and “The Solution” belong on other entries.

  2. wolfpackpassion 02/25/2008 at 10:53 PM #

    SFN: Completely off topic.

  3. BJD95 02/25/2008 at 11:46 PM #

    Looks like Seth Greenburg will get SFN’s vote for conference COY again, with Duke’s struggles down the stretch.

  4. werncstate 02/25/2008 at 11:57 PM #

    I knew you should have discussed Miami in your original thread vawolf. Unless they fold completely they are a lock at this point. The ACC will get at least 5 teams in the dance. If the big10 gets five bids it will be a huge injustice, what a horrible conference. If the big east gets 8 I won’t argue with that. I watched the Notre Dame vs Syracuse game over the weekend. Both teams looked better than any ACC team that does not wear a shade of blue. State is 3 and 0 against the big east, go figure.

  5. wolfonthehill 02/26/2008 at 6:51 AM #

    ^^ Huh… I thought Seth had used up his eligibility and was confined to the coaching ranks these days. 🙂

    BJD: Doh. Fixed the typo. That’s what happens when you post after a Vicodin.

    And I’m thinking the league will get 6… maybe 7 if the right teams win and lose.

  6. RickJ 02/26/2008 at 7:27 AM #

    I guess Miami’s improvement gives the Pack that elusive quality win.

  7. Sweet jumper 02/26/2008 at 7:47 AM #

    VaWolf82: Keep comments on topic.

  8. mafpack 02/26/2008 at 8:07 AM #

    Listening to the talking heads this morning, some aren’t considering Clemson as a solid “in” right now, especially if they can’t win the majority of their games here down the stretch and pull atleast one in the ACC tourney.

    Any thoughts on the possibility of the tigers not dancing this year?

  9. haze 02/26/2008 at 8:26 AM #

    I think that SFN’s work on the bubble trumps most all of the talking heads. The numbers seldom lie on this topic.

    Naturally, there is time for CU to lose their way back out. Still, 2-2 over the last 4 and they are a lock. 1-3 is probably good enough too, but scary.

  10. Stoner 02/26/2008 at 8:31 AM #

    ACC gets four teams in, maybe five if we’re lucky. 5-12 in the conference has enough bad losses to wipe out any quality wins they have in their OOC schedule. Also, the ACC got 7 teams in last year and none of them did well. Though it shouldn’t matter, the way your conference does in recent years does effect how the Selection Committee views how many teams should get it in. Basically why put in the 6th or 7th place ACC squad, if they’ll get bounced in the first round to a mid-major.

  11. RAWFS 02/26/2008 at 8:35 AM #

    If Haith pulls off the turnaround, he’s your COY.

    POY is you-know-who, no question.

    And VaWolf82 has figured out tables in this revision of WordPress! 🙂 Good thing I am upgrading again this weekend. I kid, I kid, VaWolf. It’s a minor dot-dot upgrade, you’ll not see any changes to the look or feel.

  12. boonami 02/26/2008 at 9:47 AM #

    RAWFS… agreed if Haith does the miracle, he is COY hands down. POY, I hope it’s not you know who and the dude from K-State gets it.

  13. Wulfpack 02/26/2008 at 9:49 AM #

    My COY would have to be coach K. Quite a turn around. 2nd would be Dino.

    POY has already been decided.

    ROY is JJ, though Singler will get a ton of votes.

  14. RAWFS 02/26/2008 at 10:06 AM #

    boonami – I was speaking in reference to the ACC.

    National POY is Beasley, and he’s #1 in most every mock draft I have seen.

  15. blackdom 02/26/2008 at 10:12 AM #

    Hit it right on head. The success we had at the end of the season was based on Astur. And if I knew as most others did,why did we not go out and get a guard?

  16. 66pack 02/26/2008 at 10:22 AM #

    the fact thatt

  17. boonami 02/26/2008 at 10:30 AM #

    sorry RAWFS, yes POY in the ACC is Hans, no question.

  18. travelwolf 02/26/2008 at 10:44 AM #

    i think one of the problems of the ACC this year is that we are a very strong conference – and we keep on beating each other up. no matter how many teams get into the NCAA Tourn., i predict that we’ll have at least 3 acc teams in the Sweet Sixteen.

  19. Rick 02/26/2008 at 11:03 AM #

    Serious question
    Would Hanbrough be POY at another school?
    I think at another school he has alot (and I mean alot) more foul trouble as well as having to actually follow the two step rule.

  20. Mike 02/26/2008 at 11:23 AM #

    The conference struggles with mediocrity. Look at the Big10 challenge. We always win the tourney, which proves our 4th-12th is better than their 4th-12th. But as for overall quality, the conference struggles. I think even the bottom (9-12) teams in our league would finish in the 3-5 range in most other leagues. But the 3-5 in most other leagues do not qualify as “in”.

    All the teams have hit streaks of good and bad, and it has been proven any team can beat any team. But when all is said and done, we have 2 teams with winning records in conference, 6 teams with .500 records, and 3 teams with poor records. Again, those bottom 3 would still be middle of the road in other leagues, but we as a conference suffer by the overall strength from top to bottom.

  21. wufpup76 02/26/2008 at 11:26 AM #

    Good analysis … I’m really surprised that VT is even on the bubble … Greenburg should definitely get consideration for COY, though I think it will (and should) go to Haith if Miami can close strong

    I think the Tigers are in solidly even if they close only 2-2 over their last 4 … 9-7 w/ the wins they have this year should protect them even if they lose their first round ACCT game again … Like someone said above, 1-3 down the stretch puts the Tigers on shaky ground, once again, heading into the ACCT … I’m “adopting” CU as my NCAAT team if they make it and State doesn’t pull a miracle 🙂 … go tigs

    “Though it shouldn’t matter, the way your conference does in recent years does effect how the Selection Committee views how many teams should get it in.” – True to a point, I think, but it never seems to affect the Big Ten … In the late ’90’s and early 2000’s, the Big Ten would consistently send 6-7 teams, have a horrible showing, and still get as many in the next season … Always infuriated me … One year they got 7 teams in, 6 got bounced in the FIRST round yet the conference got 7 bids again the very next year … grrrrr

    I agree with the post that said if the ACC doesn’t get at least 5 in, it’s an injustice … 6, however, could be a real stretch … we’ll see … Maybe an unexpected team can win the ACC Tournament … like, say an NC STATE team 🙂 … maybe the other 5 would still get in

    go pack

  22. BJD95 02/26/2008 at 11:38 AM #

    My votes so far:

    POY – Hansblow
    COY – Greenburg
    ROY – Singler

    My ballot nauseates me, but less so than last week when it included K as COY.

  23. SaccoV 02/26/2008 at 11:57 AM #

    I was trying to find some of our posts from last season to make a little speculation. I wonder if the RPI rating will hurt teams like Maryland, WF, and Virginia Tech over teams in weaker conferences who have winning marks (Say a 12-4 2nd or 3rd place MVC or OVC team gets in over a .500 ACC team with a higher RPI). I’m just curious what you guys think, as I believe last year there were some RPI schools in the 50s who didn’t get in with a .500 or close to .500 conference mark.

  24. Trip 02/26/2008 at 1:13 PM #

    UNC, Duke, Clemson, Miami, Maryland and POSSIBLY Wake Forest. Those are the teams that will make it in the NCAA. Wake Forest is going to have to go 3-1 down the stretch to make it in with their crappy OOC/RPI. Which means, if we can beat them again then their season is NIT bound.

    Jeez, we have an outstanding RPI considering our ACC record/overall record. If lightning struck us and we churn out 3 wins in a row and make it the semi-finals in the ACC tourney I wouldn’t place a NCAA bid out of the question. Just by the numbers, though. Because I know this team isn’t going to do that… they’ll blow out FSU/Duke and then lose to wake forest by 50 and come home Thursday.

  25. BJD95 02/26/2008 at 1:41 PM #

    The problem is that 2 of the 3 ACC teams that had wretched OOC results (MD and VT) look to go .500 or better. Only GT has consistently sucked throughout their slate.

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