Doing the Math (The Path to 8 ACC Wins)

Let the people rejoice – State beat the castrated turkeys once again, to get back to .500 in the ACC. That’s the good news. The bad news is that the second half of the conference schedule is even more difficult. NC State will likely only be favored in one game (home vs. FSU). But all is not lost – State may not be the favorite, but can legitimately expect to compete well in 5 other matchups. We break the games down into categories below, with percentage likelihood of victory in parentheses.

Home games against inferior opponents (1)

vs. Florida State (80%)

The Pack played really well (and the Noles really poorly) for 5 minutes at the end of the first half in Tallahassee. Thanks to a banked 3 from Fells and huge plays on both ends of the floor from Hickson in the last minute of play, that was enough. FSU is in the midst of watching another season go down the drain in ACC play, with the NIT looming on the horizon. This is a game that NC State must win, and should do so absent a severe mental letdown.

Road games against inferior opponents (3)

at Boston College (50%), at Virginia (50%), at Wake Forest (50%)

Getting 2 out of 3 here would be huge, and probably necessary. Let me clarify what I mean by inferior – on a neutral court, I would expect NC State to be favored against all 3. Of course, if we play poorly (like we did in the home matchup against Wake), all bets are off. But I like our roster better than each opponent’s, and there are no bad matchups for us (no great outside shooting or multiple, dynamic guards). If Fells can shut down or at least suppress Rice, Singletary, and Teague – then State is better at the other positions. I also expect momentum and motive to work in NC State’s favor – Boston College is in freefall, and Virginia is showing signs of weariness (due to their coach being a raving lunatic in the mold of his asshole mentor, Jim Calhoun). These two also have a somewhat lackluster home-court advantage. BC is worse than their record indicates, and UVA is better (3 of their ACC losses have come in overtime). Wake is more of a wild card, but if everything breaks right, NC State could enter the game at 7-8 and needing a win to punch its dance ticket. I fully expect Wake to be playing for nothing but pride. I also don’t think much of head coach Dino Gaudio.

Very tough matchups, but not hopeless (2)

at Maryland (25%), vs. Clemson (35%)

The upcoming titlt in College Park is just one of those games I have a feeling about. Maryland is notorious for playing to the level of their competition. They do have multiple, good PGs – but neither is an explosive scorer. They don’t shoot well from the outside. The Terp big men are talented – but they also give up alot of fouls. That’s the weak point we can exploit, as long as we aren’t dominated on the glass and don’t go crazy with turnovers. It will be a fun matchup, if for no other reason than Osby. Like Fletch, he’s 6’9″ with the afro. Clemson is a tough matchup for us, with good perimeter shooting, solid rebounding, and smothering defense. They made us look silly in Littlejohn. However, the Tiggers are a different team on the road, and have really struggled of late. The crowd will be up for this one, and I can’t write off a possible upset.

Divine intervention needed (2)

vs. UNC (2%), vs. Duke (1%)

These are nightmare matchups for the Pack, both offensively and defensively. Regardless of location, the two blues would beat the Pack 99 times out of 100. As Duke showed last week, it is capable of undoing 20 minutes of yeoman’s work by the Pack in about 3:20. I listed our odds at 2% for the UNC game, because there is a remote chance that Lawson won’t play, or will be severely limited.

Add up the percentages, and the median number of expected wins over the last 8 ACC games is 2.93. 7-9 is the most likely mathematical result, with 6 wins being slightly more likely than 8. I would be really surprised to see 5-11 or 9-7.

About BJD95

1995 NC State graduate, sufferer of Les and MOC during my entire student tenure. An equal-opportunity objective critic and analyst of Wolfpack sports.

07-08 Basketball

103 Responses to Doing the Math (The Path to 8 ACC Wins)

  1. Trout 02/06/2008 at 2:34 PM #

    Good analysis. I agree, the 2nd half of the season will be tougher than the first half of the season. Our next 8 in the ACC, as a group, are tougher then the first 8. In the first half of the season, even a very good NC State team would probably lose at Clemson, at UNC and at Duke – but thoset tough road games did give us 4 true “we should win” home games. Now, in the second half, we only have 1 “we should win” home game (FSU), and 3 home games where 2 of them are probable losses (Duke, UNC) and the 3rd will be extremely tough (Clemson).

    However, we do have some road games that are “FSU like” – winnable. Although winning on the road is extremely tough. Even good teams hope to split on the road, and that is what we MUST do in the 2nd half of the season – win 2 of our 4 road games.

    If I were ranking chances of a win, I’d go like this:

    FSU – 80%
    @UVa – 55%
    @BC – 50%
    Clemson – 50%
    @ Wake – 40% (I believe in Wake more strongly than the author)
    @ Maryland – 35%
    UNC – 10%
    Duke – 1%

  2. Trout 02/06/2008 at 2:44 PM #

    ^ I think of the odds of beating UNC are significantly higher than the odds of beating Duke.

    UNC has not been that impressive on the road within the ACC. They should have lost at Clemson, should have lost at GT, went OT versus FSU. They can be beat, IMO.

  3. Sweet jumper 02/06/2008 at 2:44 PM #

    I am glad we don’t have to go to GA Tech. I saw enough of Causey, although Javi might surprise him if we play them in the tournament.
    State has to play the games one at a time and not look ahead of the next opponent. I hope GG can stress to the team the importance of sticking with the game plan and doing what Coach Lowe says. He hinted at this in several interviews this season. The Duke game was a perfect example with us sticking with the game plan in the first half and losing our composure, getting away from the game plan and reverting to bad habits in the second half.

  4. Mr O 02/06/2008 at 2:52 PM #

    Nice summary. We do appear headed for 7-9 and needing to win two games to reach the NCAA tournament. Is it possible to be 7-9 and somehow tie for 5th or 6th place or due to tiebreakers end up as the 11th seed?

    If we go into the ACC tournament as the #7, 8, 9 or 10 seed, then it will be very difficult to get 2 wins in the tournament because we would face Duke or UNC on Friday.

    At 5,6, or 11 you get to play the #3 or #4 seed on Friday which gives you a good chance to win a 2nd game.

    I know it is hard for NC State fans to do so, but we need Duke and UNC to not a lose another game to the rest of the ACC(except us obviously). Maryland beating UNC was not a good result for us.

  5. PapaJohn 02/06/2008 at 2:53 PM #

    Encouraging analysis, maybe we’ll squeeze in the tourney after all.
    But this team should be better than hoping to steal enough wins to get off the bubble.

  6. WTNY 02/06/2008 at 3:06 PM #

    Good analysis — IMO we need 10 ACC wins (regular season + ACC tourney) to offset those two horrendous OOC losses and be safely in the Big Dance. Not impossible but an uphill climb.

  7. jbpackfan 02/06/2008 at 3:08 PM #

    I think this has the potential to be the 3rd best team in the ACC, as predicted. At this point, based on talent and how they are developing, I would argue State and Maryland are the 2 teams most likely to take that 3rd spot. Saturday’s game could be a big momentum builder for the winner. State unfortunately has the toughest schedule, but it is possible for State to overcome that.

  8. Mr O 02/06/2008 at 3:11 PM #

    Tonight’s games for RPI watch/who to pull for?:

    William Mary(8-3 in the CAA, 1/2 game out of 1st) @ Hofstra

    ECU vs. Rice(battle for last place in Conference USA)

    Davidson vs. Elon

    Seton Hall vs. ND(ND 16-4, 6-2 in the Big East)

    UNC vs. Duke(winner shouldn’t matter because we play both twice)

    Miami vs. FSU – Miami is one of our top 50 wins, but with FSU on our schedule twice an FSU win might help our RPI more. Both are at least 2.5 games behind us in the conference standings. Maybe the RPI experts can explain to me who we should be pulling for here.

    GT vs Wake – Pull for Wake because we would lose a tiebreaker to GT and at worst will split with Wake Forest. Plus with us playing Wake twice seems like a win by Wake will help our RPI in the long run.

  9. newt 02/06/2008 at 3:17 PM #

    If we beat FSU at home, and BC and UVA away, then we should be favored over Clemson at home.

    True optimism:

    Though they have supreme talent (and the refs on their side), we match up well against UNC, except at the PG position (maybe Lawson’s ankle will not heal fully). Hickson is probably the only big man in the ACC that can match up with “steriod rage T.” Hickson even had a pretty good line in our loss in the first game, and he’ll be much better at the end of his first ACC season than he was for the first ACC game of his career, on the road, against #1 in the nation.

  10. Trout 02/06/2008 at 3:18 PM #

    I’m more worried about where we finish in the ACC than RPI. Therefore, I want GT to win (I think Wake is stronger than GT, so a GT win knocks Wake down. I dont think GT is much of a threat to steal an NCAA bid).

    I want FSU to win. Miami still has a strong RPI. I dont think FSU can catch us, but Miami might.

    Dont care in UNC vs Duke.

    Want UVa to beat Clemson.

  11. choppack1 02/06/2008 at 3:19 PM #

    The good news is that we are definitely improving. In our 8 games we played the 3 against the upper tier(UNC, Duke, Clmeson), 3 middle tier (Wake, VaTech, GaTech) and 2 lower tier (FSU, Miami), in the second half we play 3/4 against upper tier(UNC, Duke, Clemson, UMd) , 1 middle tier (WF), 3 lower tier (FSU, BC, Va)….The problem is that 3 of the 4 games vs. the lower/middle tier are on the road.

    Since Sidney’s arrived, we have been pretty good on the road in non-hostile environments – winning at FSU and at Seton Hall this year. We also won at Wake and at VaTech last year.

    Basically, we’re in a position where have to beat the teams that are “beatable”. Any slip-up means that we have to beat someone good. I think it’s very possible for us to win at BC and at UVa, and beat FSU and Clemson at the RBC (allowing us home losses to Duke and UNC and road losses at Wake and at UMd.)

    Looking at the glass half full, we are still improving – so I think it’s possible that we could do something special in the second half of this season. (Then again, last year after we went 3-5, when you looked at our schedule, you figured we were poised for a solid year and it all fell apart.)

  12. Mr O 02/06/2008 at 3:25 PM #

    Almost forgot Maryland vs. BC – Pull for BC. Would put both BC and Maryland 4-4. I think we have a better shot at beating BC on the road than Maryland, so we need Maryland to lose this one. Also, the value of a road win in the RPI is much larger than a home win. It would be helpful if we end up higher than as many ACC teams as possible.

    Current RPIs:
    3 UNC
    4 Duke
    27 Clemson
    38 Miami
    40 NC State
    63 VPI
    66 Maryland
    67 Wake
    77 GT
    82 BC
    84 FSU
    121 UVa

    That Seton Hall/ND game tonight is huge. ND is looking like an NCAA tournament team right now and Seton Hall has been struggling a bit. Winning that game at home would help our RPI and at the same time knock drop ND in the RPI who could be competing with us for an at-large bid. I would rather compete against a team we beat on the road – Seton Hall.

    Here are some RPIs of interest:
    ND 43
    Seton Hall 49
    Davidson 55

  13. TNCSU 02/06/2008 at 3:44 PM #

    Interesting posts, but I think there are only 2 tiers at this point: UNC & Dook, and then everyone else. 3rd or 4th is definitely within our reach if we play well and keep improving. Granted, we have a tougher schedule than most with Dook, UNC, and Clemson twice, but I do not agree that the second half of our schedule is tougher than the first half. Just three weeks ago, everyone was saying our first half was SO much tougher because we played Dook, UNC, and Clemson on the road (in addition to FSU). As much as the GT home loss hurts, we got one back at FSU. The team is playing better, and I am definitely confident that we can continue to improve. We need to beat the teams that we should beat – FSU, Wake, MD, etc., and I think we are more than capable of beating Clemson, UNC and/or Dook at home. We all need to show up in force and make the RBC a definite home court advantage for the Pack!

  14. Mr O 02/06/2008 at 3:45 PM #

    Let’s assume Duke finishes 15-1(1 loss to UNC) and UNC finishes 14-2(1 loss to Duke, 1 to Md.)

    There are a possible 96 wins each year in the 12 team ACC.

    96-29 Duke and UNC wins = 67 wins left.

    67/10 remaing teams = average 6.7 wins per team available.

    I guess it is possible that 3rd or 4th place in the conference could be a tie at 8-8 or 7-9 with several teams.

    Another important factor is determing who to pull for in ACC games:

    # of games left vs. Duke and UNC:
    Clemson(4-3) – 1
    Md(4-3) – 1
    VPI(5-4)- 1
    NC State(4-4) – 2
    Wake(3-4) – 2
    BC(3-4)- 2
    VPI(5-4)- 1
    GT (3-4)- 1

  15. Mr O 02/06/2008 at 4:03 PM #

    Trout: Does GT having the tiebreaker against us and only 1 game left vs. Duke and UNC change your thinking at all? I guess you are thinking that ultimately GT fades and isn’t a factor in the standings with us at 7-9.

    If you assume that UNC and Duke beat everyone, then here is how the standings look:

    VPI 5-5, current RPI 63
    Clemson 4-4, current RPI 27
    Maryland 4-4, current RPI 66
    GT 3-5, current RPI 77
    NC State 4-6, current RPI 40
    Wake 3-6, current RPI 67
    BC 3-6, current RPI 82

  16. zahadum 02/06/2008 at 4:19 PM #

    Something that will hopefully help us: Clemson has 6 of their last 9 on the road, Md & GT have 5 of their last 9.

  17. waxhaw 02/06/2008 at 4:28 PM #

    Winning one of the next two road games is a huge step. I think we make it to 8-8 but I agree that anywhere from 6-9 wins is certainly possible.

  18. Trip 02/06/2008 at 4:40 PM #

    I’m going to go with a finishing record of 9-7. Javi made me a believer. I think when Lawson/Paulus come to visit they’re gonna be surprised by a much different Lopez than they remember… Not saying he’s going to punk them, but he’s certainly not going to be scared.

  19. burnbarn 02/06/2008 at 4:44 PM #

    I think GT fades.. they had a good game against us.
    I think the best of the rest in conference is prob Klem, twerps and us. Is it unreasonable to think 5 ACC teams get in?

  20. BJD95 02/06/2008 at 4:53 PM #

    With our RPI already at 40, with a boost from Duke and UNC games remaining, I have no worries re getting a bid at 8-8. The Techs and MD would have to sweat, given their poor OOC perrormance. I outlined this in a blog post last week.
    UNC is a killer matchup due to their multiple, dynamic guards (how does Javi guard Lawson or Ellington?), ability to get points in transition (esp. off TOs), and ability to play pressure defense.

  21. Texpack 02/06/2008 at 5:25 PM #

    As SFN pointed out in an earlier entry it is important for us for Miami to win as many games as possible. Keeping their RPI in the top 50 is important to how people look at our numbers at the end of the year. A Nova revival would also help out and Davidson could well sneak into the top 50. The critical games are turning out to be the ones I picked out in my pre-ACC prediction post. State’s current RPI shows how important it is to play a decent outside schedule in the pre-season. The selection committee has traditionally rewarded teams for doing this and if you stumble (UNO & ECU) your RPI isn’t automatically crushed because you have the opportunity for quality wins as a make up.

  22. tvp1 02/06/2008 at 5:39 PM #

    Good entry. Some thoughts:

    (1) I see the next three games – @ UMd, @ BC, Clemson – as the critical stretch. I feel pretty good about BC, not so good about the other two. We really need to go 2-1 in that stretch. That puts us at 6-5 and in good shape.

    We’d have the two easiest remaining games (IMO) in FSU and @ UVA still left, and winning those two gets us to the magic 8-8. We’d still have free shots at UNC and Duke, plus the game at Wake, as other longshot possibilities (see below).

    (2) I give us no better than a 1 in 3 chance of winning at Wake. That is a talented team that is not a great matchup for us. They look to be on the upswing. Further, they are VERY tough at home but have a very poor road record. If we go into that game 7-8 we are in trouble.

    (3) I think we’ve got at least some chance for an upset against Duke, because with Hickson (and to a lesser extent McCauley and Costner) we can take advantage of their lack of defensive size. We’ve shown we can play with Duke for a while at least. At home we’ll get a few more calls and be less likely to have the momentum get out of control against us.

    Winning percentage estimates:

    FSU – 80%
    UVA – 60%
    BC – 55%
    Clemson – 45%
    Maryland – 40%
    Wake – 33%
    Duke – 10%
    UNC – 5%

    Projected record of 8.29-7.71.

    This is admittedly fairly optimistic.

  23. tvp1 02/06/2008 at 5:45 PM #

    Also, I think we should cheer for Miami tonight, even though we have FSU twice on schedule and Miami once. The reason is that Miami is our best RPI win to date, and I want to keep that as a good win, even if it slightly affects our RPI negatively and keeps them alive for an NCAA bid.

    In the other ACC games, we want BC to win. I’d rather have Clemson beat UVA. I’m fine with conceding bid #3 to Clemson. I think we need a little separation among spots 3-12 to maximize the number of ACC bids. Plus, we play Clemson twice.

    Wake-GT I could go either way on. I’ll default to Wake since we play them twice.

    It’s telling that reasonable people can disagree on who we want to win some of these games. It’s hard to figure out the conference math this year.

  24. kool k 02/06/2008 at 6:11 PM #

    You had me at Fletch

  25. Tau837 02/06/2008 at 6:28 PM #

    I do not think 8-8 is good enough if we lose in the first round of the ACC tournament (and assuming we didn’t pull off a big upset win over Duke or UNC).

    The way the schedule falls, that scenario means we would be only 5-5 over our last 10 games (the first round loss + 4-4 second half plus the VT win last night).

    Furthermore, the most likely 4 wins we will get to make 8-8 will be over FSU, BC, UVA, and Wake… no NCAA tournament teams. That would give us few quality wins to offset our bad losses to ECU and UNO and our blowout losses to the best teams on our schedule (to date at least) – UNC, Duke, MSU, even Clemson.

    Yes, our RPI would be solid, but what else is there? I’m not sure that alone will be enough, especially since the conference doesn’t seem to be getting great press nationally.

    I think 5 more wins are needed, whether that means 4 more regular season wins plus at least one ACC tournament win, or 5 more regular season wins.

    I know we are talented enough to do it, but it’s going to be a challenge.

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