Survive and Advance- NC State 79, Seton Hall 73

07-08 Basketball64

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None of the basketball was particularly artful, and it would be a grave mistake to pronounce that the 2007-08 Wolfpack has turned the corner. However, the season is back on track, after surviving a grueling stretch of 3 games in 6 days (with Christmas in the middle). NC State had to win all three games, and win them they did. Assuming no catastrophic loss to Western Carolina, Presbyterian, or NC Central, State will enter ACC play at 11-3, which is fairly solid ground. Even more importantly, NC State has 2 quality non-home wins (Villanova and Seton Hall) for its NCAAT resume, to balance out the 2 inexcusable losses.

Neither replacement point guard played very well, but neither cost State the game, either. Johnson, in particular, had some moments where he was actually useful on each end of the floor. Fells carried the Pack in the first half, Gavin Grant in the second (with some help from Ben and J.J.). I now no longer fear complete disaster, which is a great relief.

About BJD95

1995 NC State graduate, sufferer of Les and MOC during my entire student tenure. An equal-opportunity objective critic and analyst of Wolfpack sports.

07-08 Basketball

64 Responses to Survive and Advance- NC State 79, Seton Hall 73

  1. pakfanistan 12/28/2007 at 12:24 PM #

    I wouldn’t get my hopes up regarding rebounding based on this game. Seton Hall isn’t a big team and they don’t rebound very well either. They were somewhere in the 200’s last season. Check out Section Six for more information.

  2. waxhaw 12/28/2007 at 12:26 PM #

    The team has definitely played better since the ECU game. If we can keep playing with this level of intensity and avoid any more injuries, I believe we will win 8 or more games in the ACC.

    However, sometimes after a major injury, the team will play over their heads for a game or two before reality sets in. Luckily for us we have the 3 game cupcakes to continue to break in MJ and even though Degand was our starter, he wasn’t a key cog like our other 4 starters.

  3. zahadum 12/28/2007 at 12:30 PM #

    Yeah, the first half of our conference schedule definately looks tougher than the second half. Hopefully we can hold our own in Jan. and then make a move standings-wise in Feb.

    At least we don’t have to play at Miami this year. To my mind, that’s the toughest place to play in the conference, despite the conventional wisdom about Cameron. (toughest place to win is a different question) If you can’t get up for a game in Cameron you don’t have a pulse. But at Miami you almost need electroshock just to stay awake

  4. Trip 12/28/2007 at 1:10 PM #

    This is what I think realistically (Based on how we are playing currently) and what I believe (optimistically) we can play like in ACC play.

    January 12 at No. 1 North Carolina – L-L There’s not much of a chance winning this one unless MJ throws the hammer down on Lawson.
    January 15 at No. 20 Clemson – L-L – I don’t think Clemson is that good. But we’re going to have to improve to beat them. Early season game, I’m going to go with a loss on this one as our PG situation still isn’t set.
    January 19 No. 19 Miami (FL) – W-W – At home I think we can take them.
    January 23 Georgia Tech – W-W – GT Isn’t that great, and at home we should grab a W.
    January 26 at Florida State – L-W – I think we’ll be playing much better by this point and can steal one on the road. The chance for a meltdown is there though, and we’ll probably be hungover from spanking GT.
    January 31 at No. 10 Duke – L-L – Duke is playing insane right now, we’re going to have to slow them down in order to stand a chance. Probably a loss since it is at Duke.
    February 3 Wake Forest – W-W – WF is playing off emotion right now, and they barely beat a bad VT team. Win.
    February 5 Virginia Tech – W-W- I expect a trashing just like last year.
    February 9 at Maryland – W-W- Gary William’s squad is sucking it up more than we are at the moment.
    February 14 at Boston College -W-W- The “Fan”base there shouldn’t be enough to scare us into losing against a inferior team.
    February 16 No. 20 Clemson -W-W- We’ve got this one.
    February 20 No. 1 North Carolina -L-W- Honestly, unless we show marked improvement at the PG slot, we’re still going to lose. We match carolina at every position except for PG currently. Optimistically, that redcoat comes out, fells throws up 20 points, MJ gets 10 assists, hickson makes hansbro cry, and we destroy them at home.
    February 24 at Virginia -L-W- I think we can steal this one.
    February 27 Florida State -W-W- Yep.
    March 1 No. 10 Duke -W-W- I’m going to say that the crowd is going to take Duke out of their gameplan and we steal a win from them.
    March 8 at Wake Forest -W-W- We can’t drop this one.

    So looking at the w/l’s… realistically with how we’re playing I’m going to say 10-6. Optimistically, 13-3. Optimistically i’m assuming that Costner comes out of his slump permanently and that either MJ or Javi transform into “Above Average” ACC PG’s.

    8-8 with the right losses will get us in the tournament assuming we don’t drop any of our cupcakes.

  5. CaptainCraptacular 12/28/2007 at 1:30 PM #

    *It’s great that our bubble teams can pick up a tourney win without knocking each other out of consideration.*

    This portion of the conversation is long past, but I have to mention: Waxhaw, did you perchance watch last years ACC tourney and how the bubble teams fared against the lower seeded ‘weaker’ opponents? 0-4 if you don’t remember. There is no such thing as an easy victory in the ACCT, especially for the so called bubble teams. Outside of the byes, seeds mean little to nothing and every game usually is a battle for survival (apologies to the troops).

    As far as the discussion about minimum 8-8 goes. Shooting guard, I think 8-8 would be enough to get us in (assuming we win the next 3 cupcake games of course), but only if we do win the first round ACCT game. If we were to go 8-8 but drop the ACCT opener, then we’d be 19-12 and probably seriously sweating selection Sunday. If that were the case it would likely come down to which ACC opponents we beat to reach the 8 win mark.

    As for Javi, I hope his reluctance to shoot when open is related to his injury possibly still bothering his aim, form, etc. I’ll postpone personal judgment on that till later.

  6. zahadum 12/28/2007 at 2:59 PM #

    Trip, I’d agree pretty much with your predictions. I would throw in one more mystery loss. That is, a game we should win on paper but where for no explanable reason we come out totally flat.

    At Va. worries me more than at FSU, because of Singletary’s ability to get hot and go off on us.

    Like you, Clemson doesn’t really impress me. They do this every year where they look awesome in Dec. and then start folding once they face good competition. Until they show that they can break that pattern, I’ll always be skeptical about them.

    On the flip side, I get a feeling Ga. Tech may not be as bad as they look right now.

  7. Trip 12/28/2007 at 4:45 PM #

    Ugh, I just looked up the stats on Western Carolina. It’s gonna be another dragout decided at the free throw line. They have a free throw rate defensively around Cincy’s and they spread the minutes around to 11 people with only one of their players getting 30+ minutes a game consistently and all of the others in the 10-20 minute range. We’re still ranked #2 in the nation as far as getting to the free throw line so I don’t think this will be a very good game to gauge offense cohesiveness. They’re decent rebounders overall and steal the ball at a decent clip, although no where near as much as seton hall. They defend the 3 pretty well, but allow 53% of 2 point shots.

    Presbyterian is just a terrible team who jacks up way too many 3’s and doesn’t hit enough of them to make a difference.

    NC Central has literally the worst stats i’ve seen yet, the transition from DII to DI is not treating them well.

    Then we go up against Carolina… talk about going cold to scalding hot.

  8. wufpup76 12/28/2007 at 6:27 PM #

    a little off topic here, but i’d just like to add this:

    isn’t it nice to see the team taking a positive direction after earlier negatives and to see actual player improvement?

    i think it’s great to know that we will continue to improve and be a pretty competitive team by the end of the season (barring injuries – knock on wood)

    i fully supported HWSNBN while he was here, but always expected a drop off at the end of the season OR a key loss when we couldn’t afford one

    with sidney, i have actually witnessed player improvement throughout each season (including this one) and know that we will be an aggressive, tough out for anybody when it counts in late feb. and march … this team has improved tremendously over the past 4 games … don’t get me wrong, there’s still a long ways to go, but i just wanted to point out how refreshing it is to look ahead in the season with optimism instead of trepidation

    (also, when we fall behind by 6 – 10 pts. in the second half now i know that the team has the ability to come back and win now instead of automatically thinking “well, this is an L”)

    i actually think 8-8 ACC play is a pretty decent goal (if you want to call it that) for this team as it stands now … if marques and javi really step up, brandon recovers and plays close to his potential, the team avoid injuries and keep getting great or solid play from gavin and everyone else then who knows …

    sorry for my off topic rant …

    go pack!

  9. Trip 12/28/2007 at 7:47 PM #

    Speaking of Player improvement, I don’t think the next 3 games are going to be enough of a challenge for us to be ready for Carolina. I think right now we have 4 players who are ready for Carolina. Grant, Hickson, Mccauley, Fells. Costner is only being held down by his shooting touch which he could build over the next 3 games, but as far as our guard situation, I don’t believe that we’ll be tested hard enough for MJ/Javi to be fully ready for Carolina. If you think Seton Hall was a baptism of fire for them, Carolina is going to be a baptism of molten lead.

  10. wufpup76 12/28/2007 at 7:57 PM #

    ^the baptism by fire will continue the entire season 🙂

    i’m hoping by the mid-point of ACC play that both javi and marques have enough confidence and experience to lead a late season charge

    fingers crossed!

  11. Trip 12/28/2007 at 8:49 PM #

    I’m thinking that pretty soon, Sid will probably start giving the better PG more minutes in an attempt to temper him into an ACC guard. He’s been splitting minutes 20/20 23/17 (going with the better playing person for 23) for most of our games this season, I think the next few games whoever is playing better will probably end up getting 25/15 split, and then as we start ACC play 30/10.

    I like the current rotation elsewise, Fells(30)/Grant(10), Grant(25)/Horner(15),Costner(30)/Mccauley(10), Mccauley(15)/Hickson(25). Smith/Harris are going to be hard pressed to find space in our rotation this year outside of trash time. I like Smith’s game, and wish we could have redshirted him this year because he’s going to be a force into his sophomore/junior year. But, it’s great to know that if foul trouble hits, we’ve got 2 very capable forwards that can fill in at the 3/4 if needed without too much drop off. If we’re speaking of “What ifs” I wish HWSNBN would have redshirted grant his freshman year rather than leaving him in the doghouse, man I love that guy. Sidney needs to make it a plan to recruit another trash-talking loudmouth Bronx kid in the coming years, they seem to work out well here.

  12. Packster 12/28/2007 at 9:30 PM #

    A little off topic but I went to see the women today and they CRUSHED Alabama State. It looked to me like we have a very good team.

  13. choppack1 12/28/2007 at 9:37 PM #

    It started w/ a win vs. Davidson, then Cincy, now Seton Hall…Hey, these may not be NCAA tourney teams, but they are decent teams…and if you can run the table like we have vs. decent teams, you’re in good shape for an at-large bid (all you have to do is see what Sendek did against the mid and lower tier of the conference for an example.)

    Most importantly, this team has started playing w/ heart and fire. I’m thrilled that we won these games precisely because these teams weren’t top notch squads, but middle-tier ones. We’ve still got a long way to go – but it’s hard to believe that this is the same team that played our early games (w/ the exception of Nova.)

  14. Stoner 12/29/2007 at 2:30 PM #

    I don’t think 8-8 is going to cut it for an NCAA tournament bid, unless we get wins over Carolina and/or Duke. The ACC is top heavy. Our conference RPI is bouyed by Duke and Carolina, but traditionally good teams – Maryland and Ga. Tech – are having down years, while teams, which have been strong recently – UVa and Va. Tech – are also having down years.

    Of the top half of the conference, per RPI, I’m not sold on how legit Miami (FL) and FSU are. I haven’t seen them play, but they aren’t traditionally good schools, though FSU has a good SOS, so this might be the year for them to turn things around.

    If FSU and Miami (FL) stumble in conference play, and the rest of the conference continues to play subpar ball, I don’t think more than the top 4 teams will get into the NCAA tournament.

    I just don’t think this is going to be one of those seasons, where we get 5-7 teams in the NCAA’s, which is usually needed for an 8-8 conference record to get you an NCAA tournament bid.

    The conference doesn’t seem that strong from top to bottom right now.

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