So who needs what and why from the ACCT?
Virginia
I am very interested in seeing where UVa is seeded in the NCAAT this year. They have the weakest OOC schedule (and thus the lowest RPI ranking) among teams in the top-half of the ACC. They also played one of the easiest conference schedules. Finally, history shows that about 75% of the teams are seeded within one position of what you would calculate based solely on RPI.
That’s the bad news. The good news is that in 2004 State was seeded higher than expected even with a record-setting, second-half collapse in the ACCT. Now we’ll get another data point on how much a regular season finish means to the Selection Committee.
Regardless of how well (or poorly) UVa does in the ACCT, I expect Hoos fans and the VA mass-media to be disappointed in their seeding for the NCAAT.
Virginia Tech & Boston College
Same story for both teams…same conference record and RPI (30 & 31). Both teams are getting uncomfortably close to the dreaded 8/9 seeds.
UNC
It looks like UNC is trying to blow their #1 seed in spite of their impressive RPI ranking of #3. I don’t think that they have looked like a #1 seed over the last several weeks, but then I’m not the most impartial observer either. Their ranking will obviously depend on their tournament performance and that of the other contenders. An ACCT championship would most likely secure a #1 seed. Anything less and it will depend on how the other conference tournaments shake out.
Maryland
Well the Twerps broke an ugly trend from the last several years and are playing for NCAAT seeding instead of an at-large bid. With their SOS, RPI ranking, and strong finish, they clearly have a shot a good seed….maybe as high as #3 with a good showing in the ACCT?
Duke
This will be another interesting seeding decision. Their RPI rank (#14 in the nation) conflicts with their #6 conference finish (tied for 6th to be completely accurate).
NOTE – There is virtually no doubt that UMD and Duke will both be seeded above teams that finished with a higher conference rank. It will be interesting to see just how many teams they pass by. You can also expect to see scathing commentaries from the local media associated with the teams that get bypassed.
Georgia Tech
I really can’t imagine GT getting passed over regardless of how they do in the ACCT. One of the things that I missed until recently is that GT is 7-2 since Feb 1. Their seeding would dramatically improve with two ACCT wins and a chance to move above an 8/9 seed.
BUBBLE-LAND
And now we visit the dreaded bubble with FSU versus Clemson on Thursday. If either team can beat UNC on Friday…then they are in. Anything less and I expect both to go to the NIT.
Note that I am not saying:
– That FSU/Clemson deserve to go to the NIT.
– That 10 or so mid-major teams are better than either team.
– Anything about the teams at all.
I’m just saying that history shows that since 1998, teams with losing conference records have to do something extraordinary to get an at-large bid to the NCAAT. The Selection Committee clearly has made the decision that they would rather have mid-majors near the top of their conference than marginal teams in a power conference. I am not saying that it is right or wrong…it merely is what it is.
State got that big ACCT win three times over the last five years. Let’s see if FSU or Clemson can step up and get one this year.
My Stolen Quote for the Week:
Nitwit stoopidity multiplies on the Internet faster than ants at a picnic.
BobLee
No context is required for this quote…it is true regardless of the subject matter at hand.
