More Brackets

I hate brackets! I hate discussions about brackets that start in Dec/Jan. I hate the endless droning about seeding. I hate discussions about filling out brackets. I hate listening to talking heads discuss their brackets instead of the NCAAT games that are being played. I HATE BRACKETS.

I won’t bore you by either defending or explaining my view. But my feelings probably explain why I never even considered including “professional” projections in yesterday’s entry on how much work was left for the ACC teams in the ACCT.

However, this omission became obvious after reading the comments to yesterday’s entry. A quick summary of some well-known projections would have made a nice addition to that piece. So now that I have admitted my bias, I can also correct the omission that it caused. Here is a short summary from two of the better known projections…David Mihm from bracketology.com and Joe Lundardi from ESPN:

 

Mihm

Lunardi

North Carolina

2

2

Maryland

3

4

Duke

5

7

Virginia Tech

5

5

Boston College

7

7

Virginia

7

5

Georgia Tech

8

10

Florida St.

LFO

NFO

Clemson

AC

Updated

3/5;  9pm

3/6

 

 

 

LFO

Last
Four Out

NFO

Next
Four Out

AC

Also
Considered

Several comments:

Both projections agreed with my thoughts concerning Duke and Maryland’s seeding. Their OOC schedule and higher RPI rank will improve their seeding when compared to other teams with similar or better ACC records.

VT and BC split their regular season games. They have the same conference record and overall record. They essentially have the same RPI ranking (27 & 30). So why do both projections have VT two seeds higher than BC?

– My guess is that sweeping UNC must be paying off for VT. But the difference in seeding also suggests that people are ignoring VT’s four bad losses to NCSU (#114), Marshall (#182), and Western Michigan (#142).

Florida State is close and needs to impress some people in the ACCT.

Both projections hate Clemson’s chances too. 😉

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

06-07 Basketball General NCS Basketball

54 Responses to More Brackets

  1. Trout 03/07/2007 at 12:35 PM #

    Using kenpom numbers, why is FSU closer than Clemson to making it? It must be that win against Florida back in December.

    RPI: Clemson 36, FSU 48
    vs RPI Top 50: Clemson 6-8, FSU 4-11
    Last 10: Clemson 3-7. FSU 5-5
    Road/Neutral: Clemson 8-5, FSU 5-8
    SOS: Clemson 43, FSU 23

    FSU has an advantage in Last 10 and SOS. But SOS is also a factor in RPI, right?

  2. Trout 03/07/2007 at 12:37 PM #

    If UVA is a 7 seed, that would have to be the worst seed a Regular Season ACC champion has ever received.

  3. gopack968 03/07/2007 at 12:38 PM #

    The “Dance Card,” using SAS analytical software, has posted a 94% accuracy rate over the past 10 years. They currently have GT in and FSU out.

    “… two college professors seem to have discovered a method to March Madness. Professors Jay Coleman, an operations management professor at the University of North Florida in Jacksonville, and Allen Lynch, an economics professor at Mercer University in Macon, Ga., have predicted the NCAA Division I tournament teams with stunning accuracy. Over the past 10 years, their analytic-powered NCAA “Dance Card” has boasted an impressive 94 percent accuracy rate. This year (2006), Coleman and Lynch correctly picked 31 out of 34 (91 percent) at-large tournament selection slots, missing only Utah State, Notre Dame and LSU. In 2003, Coleman and Lynch correctly picked 32 out of 34. Their best year was 2002, when they picked 33 out of 34 teams.”

    The complete story at SAS.com:
    http://www.sas.com/news/feature/01mar05/dancecard.html

    The Dance Card 2007 projections through Tuesday night’s games:
    http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

  4. gopack968 03/07/2007 at 12:40 PM #

    They also have Clemson in – and above VT. Weird.

  5. VaWolf82 03/07/2007 at 12:44 PM #

    As mentioned yesterday, the Dance Card also has Clemson in. One item that the Dance Card doesn’t consider is how the teams finish the year.

    State fans know from first-hand experience that finishing the year is certainly considered. Two of the teams that the Dance Card missed on was NC State in 2003 and 2005.

  6. Trout 03/07/2007 at 12:46 PM #

    ^ IF Clemson beats FSU, then last 10 will be 4-6 for both teams. I think the winner of Clemson/FSU is in. ACC gets 8 teams.

  7. Dan 03/07/2007 at 12:48 PM #

    trout,

    Clemson has swept FSU this season.

    If Clemson beats FSU for the THIRD time tomorrow its over. My bet is that all their brackets reflect them thinking FSU will win that game which would be a huge blow to Clemson.

    The funny thing about Lunardi is that he has ODU in. Clemson beat ODU at ODU. Of course that same logic didnt work last year for Hofstra either. I cant stand Lunardi, but the guy is usually right…catch here…in his final brackets on Selection Sunday.

    I’m guessing VaWolf would agree with me when I say that doing a bracket in December is borderline heresy. I dont mind it too much this week only to attempt to put some added plot lines into the conference tourneys. I mean without all this bracket talk, Clemson vs FSU would be pretty forgettable.

    I know people are down on Clemson right now, and maybe they will be the first BCS team not to make the dance with 20+ wins and a top 40 RPI. But that would be unprecedented. Then again, everything is unprecedented at one time.

  8. VaWolf82 03/07/2007 at 12:48 PM #

    why is FSU closer than Clemson to making it? It must be that win against Florida back in December.

    I suspect sarcasm….but that FSU win was far better than any win that Clemson has. Clemson’s best win is either BC, VT, or maybe #39 Old Dominion. 😉

    Seriously though, Clemsons 4-9 record since the middle of Jan is pretty bad. Throw in an OOC SOS ranked 200+ and you have just the kind of team that falls off the wrong side of the bubble. But I really believe that a win over UNC on Friday would swing all of those projections around.

  9. Trout 03/07/2007 at 12:49 PM #

    FYI for those wondering for NC State (using kenpom #s)

    RPI: 114
    SOS: 52
    vs RPI Top 50: 3-11
    Last 10: 4-6
    Home/Neutral: 2-8

  10. Trout 03/07/2007 at 12:51 PM #

    I didnt realize Clemson swept FSU. IMO, even more reason Clemson should get better consideration than FSU. I think the committee is putting WAY too much stock in a early December FSU win over Florida.

  11. VaWolf82 03/07/2007 at 12:53 PM #

    I’m guessing VaWolf would agree with me when I say that doing a bracket in December is borderline heresy. I dont mind it too much this week only to attempt to put some added plot lines into the conference tourneys.

    I would prefer “utter stupidity” to “borderline heresy”.

    Both Lundari and Mihm do pretty well with their final projections. It would be interesting to track the accuracy of the projections on Jan 1 and Feb 1 as well. Wonder why we never see any stats on how those projections turned out?

  12. VaWolf82 03/07/2007 at 12:54 PM #

    Does FSU have that guard back (broken hand?) ? If so, then FSU can play the injury card to “explain” some of the end-of-year slide.

    EDIT: From: FSU’s scout.com site:

    Toney Douglas returns to the lineup and Al Thornton scores 45 points as FSU earns overtime victory against Miami. …Entering Saturday’s game, the Seminoles were 1-5 in games that Doulgas missed.

  13. VaWolf82 03/07/2007 at 1:13 PM #

    Trout linked a DBR report by Al Featherston on PP. Al has a good discussion about FSU vs Clemson in it.

    http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/articles/?p=22084

  14. BJD95 03/07/2007 at 1:30 PM #

    I think the Toney Douglas thing really helps FSU. Plus, they have that win Cameron.

    I don’t think they should consider head-to-head results in bursting bubbles. All that really says is how those 2 teams match up with each other, when the objective should be to rate how they match up against the field at large.

    Sagarin has Clemson at 26 (above VT, BC, and UVA) and FSU at 40, FWIW. We are 97th.

  15. Texpack 03/07/2007 at 1:36 PM #

    “I think the committee is putting WAY too much stock in a early December FSU win over Florida.”

    Near as I can tell the committee isn’t involved in any of these projections. Clemson’s current RPI is on the edge of the traditional LOCK range. The dudes at UNF, referenced above, have found very little correlation between the final 10 games and tournament admission. That is the main thing people mention when ruling Clemson out of the tournament. There model is only as good as the committee is consistent from year-to-year. Clemson is a LOCK with a win over FSU. They might get in even if they lose to FSU.

  16. CaptainCraptacular 03/07/2007 at 1:39 PM #

    Butler losing last night may have an impact on both Clemson and FSU’s chances.

  17. Trout 03/07/2007 at 1:42 PM #

    ^My bad. Not the committee, these 2 bracketeers.

    “Plus, they have that win Cameron.”

    Clemson should have a win in Cameron. Plus, this year, winning there wasn’t so difficult. FSU did it. Va Tech did it. UNC did it. Maryland did it.

  18. Trout 03/07/2007 at 1:43 PM #

    “All that really says is how those 2 teams match up with each other, when the objective should be to rate how they match up against the field at large.”

    Doesnt Clemson lead in that area as well? Better RPI, better record against Top 50 RPI, better road/neutral record.

  19. Mr O 03/07/2007 at 1:57 PM #

    Anyone else waiting for Vawolf82 to break down our NIT situation? Who we should be pulling for and against? 🙂

  20. VaWolf82 03/07/2007 at 2:02 PM #

    The dudes at UNF, referenced above, have found very little correlation between the final 10 games and tournament admission.

    I believe that this is true to a certain extent. However if the end of the year run includes wins over highly ranked teams, then it clearly matters. State’s NCAAT bids in 2003 and 2005 show how much a single big win in the conference tourament can mean.

    Losing streaks at the end of the year are frowned on. Several of the Dance Card misses had losing records down the stretch and didn’t make the cut. You can also see how end of the year collapses affect a team’s seeding. RPI #1 Kansas got a 3-seed in 2005.

    Quotes from the Selection Committee over the last several years shows that all of the things that we have been discussing are included. What’s not as well known is how much weight each factor is given.

    Question for all of the Clemson “fans”….Is there a recent projection anywhere that has Clemson in the NCAAT?

  21. VaWolf82 03/07/2007 at 2:04 PM #

    Anyone else waiting for Vawolf82 to break down our NIT situation?

    Since this will be the only year of the Lowe era that we will be concerned about the NIT, I am not going to put any time into it. (How’s that for positive thinking?)

    Personally, I don’t think that State has a chance without several wins in the ACCT.

  22. Trout 03/07/2007 at 2:06 PM #

    ^ I think beating Duke most likely gets us the NIT. Lose to Duke, no way.

  23. StateFans 03/07/2007 at 2:26 PM #

    Since we are talking about brackets, I thought that I would link this entry from 850. They’ve been doing a good job.

    Additionally, this entry indicates bad news for some of the bubble teams…which cascades downstream into bad news for potential NIT bubble teams.

    Butler just lost the Horizon League Championship to Wright State. Wright gets the Horizon’s automatic bid to the Big Dance. Butler at 27-5 will likely claim an at-large bid, reducing the chances for bubble teams like Clemson & FSU. Appalachian State, who needed things to fall perfectly for them to get into the the NCAA Tournament, looks to be eliminated from at-large contention.

  24. Mr O 03/07/2007 at 2:29 PM #

    I can’t figure out why people have FSU ahead of Clemson at this point either. More wins, higher RPI, same conference record, tougher conference schedule, etc…

    If we can beat Duke, then this would be the 2nd time in three years our post-seasons chances were improved by a suspension in the last game of the season.

    I will actually be disappointed with not making the NIT though I understand that other teams might be more qualified. If they really are going to this new format, then I can’t figure out why the field was reduced. Why would they want to leave so many major conference teams on the table?

    Maybe the major conferences should just have their own tournamet with teams that don’t make the field. Screw the NIT.

  25. Dan 03/07/2007 at 2:30 PM #

    One to look at it from an NC State fan perspective is that we are in the championship tournament starting now.

    Its one and done for us, and a lot of other teams, right now.

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