7-2 & Rising Hopes

06-07 Basketball General56

Alabama comes to town on Wednesday night as the Wolfpack plays host in the RBC Center to the only Top-10-ranked out of conference team that I can remember visiting the building. As usual, Section Six has a great preview of the game that can be viewed by clicking here.

(Sidenote – can anyone remember a higher ranked non-conference opponent in the ESA/RBC? It really sucks that the biggest non-conference game in the history of the building gets a 6:30pm tip and is scheduled when the students are home for exams.)

Approximately 30% of the season has passed and – to this point – nobody in their right mind would claim that Sidney Lowe and NC State have not overachieved to this point of the season. In fact, the N&O ran a story today supporting this and highlighting the Wolfpack’s strong play and ‘rising expectations’. (Link to story)

^This comes just one day after the N&O’s blog chimed in on the Virginia Tech – Wake Forest match-up on Sunday.

Virginia Tech ended up beating Wake Forest, 63-60 after Jamie Skeen’s last-second heave missed wide right. If those two teams don’t end up fighting for 11th and 12th place with Miami, the ACC’s in serious trouble.

That’s a nice (and quick) improvement from the preseason prognostications that predicted that the Wolfpack would finish 12th in the ACC and State fans would “get what they deserve” (as a preseason Fox Sports article stated)

State currently sits a surprising 7-2 with an RPI around #115 heading into a thirteen day stretch where the Pack will play five consecutive out of conference televised contests. The Pack will begin conference play in earnest on January 6th vs Boston College. Don’t worry about the RPI right now – the Pack still has eleven games scheduled with teams currently in the Top 40 of the RPI.

Before the season began, most Wolfpackers would have GLADLY taken a 7-2 to start the season WITH Engin Atsur’s presence. Can anyone really ask more than a 7-2 start considering that Atsur has missed two and half weeks of play?

I went “On the Record” with our thoughts regarding the season before we even knew how good Clemson was going to be this year. The entire entry can be seen here but can boiled down as follows:

* For this season’s 29 game regular season schedule – I am looking for the Wolfpack to finish the season 12-17 overall with a 3-13 record in the ACC. I expect a first-game exit from the ACC Tournament. Anything above this is gravy to me this year.

* A “stretch goal/expectation” would be a 15-14 regular season record; I don’t care how the wins are distributed. Finishing the regular season 15-14 (and potentially 15-15 after an ACC Tournament loss) would qualify the Wolfpack for an NIT Tournament appearance that would be unbelievable this season. This is the goal.

As the N&O intimated today but did not express in the framework of records and numbers – at this point of the season the Pack has managed to elevate their performance where they are making a strong run for the NIT and continue to provide a glimmer of hope for an NCAA Tournament invitation.

There, I said it.

Don’t confuse that with a prediction or an expectation that the Wolfpack will earn an NCAA bid; just realize that the Pack’s schedule is laden with opportunities to make splashes like the one that was made in defeat of an 11-1 Michigan team that seems headed to the big dance this year. Additionally, the NCAA Tournament committee does not hide the fact that they adjust for key injuries during the season if a team is at full strength and playing well at the end of the season.

The ACC is tough this year. A team with a strong non-conference showing – like the Pack is building – can make the NCAA Tournament with a 7-9 record in the ACC . It won’t be easy, but an objective observer who has watched teams play this season could definitely contrive a scenario where the Pack can get to 7 or 8 wins in the conference. Of course, a single injury to one of the Pack’s five main players would cripple any of this thought. Another key will be for State’s key players to avoid foul trouble in the games that the Pack has legitimate opportunities to win.

With all of this on the table, this five-game stretch prior to the start of the conference season is pivotal to setting the stage for the rest of the year. It breaks down like this:

* 5-0 and fans can legitimately shift their conversations from aiming for the NIT (with a 15-14 record) to aiming for the NCAA. State would be 12-2 with two very big wins vs Michigan and Alabama.

* 4-1 (11-3 overall) would keep fans hope for an NCAA Tournament bubble appearance alive for another couple of weeks. State’s strong play against Michigan and Virginia generates excitement for the Alabama game and Cincinnati’s early struggles gives the Pack hope on the road this weekend. The Pack would definitely have to finish at least 7-9 in conference play (potentially 8-8) for NCAA dreams.

* Before the season, a 3-2 mark would have been the hope/expectation for this stretch. Because of the Michigan win, a 10-4 overall mark prior to January 6th would keep some NCAA hopes alive but would more prominently place the Pack in solid contention to qualify for the NIT with a 15-14 (or better) overall record at the end of the year.

* Anything worse than a 3-2 mark in the next 5 game run would relegate hopes for the season much closer to what was expected heading into the year.

06-07 Basketball General

56 Responses to 7-2 & Rising Hopes

  1. wufpack 12/19/2006 at 2:55 PM #

    Personally, before the season I expected we’d have lost one of the cupcake games by now. There was no individual one that I would have pointed to as the one we would/should lose, but I just figured it would happen. For us to have gone through those undefeated with only one of them being a real scare without Atsur is pretty amazing in and of itself.

  2. highstick 12/19/2006 at 3:01 PM #

    Guys, I’ll be honest. I had “no expectations for this year”! One win would have been acceptable as long as we have a coach who is putting in place a “will and an attitude” to win!

    I am absolutely thrilled at this point and will take whatver comes down the road this year! I really feel excited about basketball at State again!

  3. redfred2 12/19/2006 at 3:12 PM #

    NYC, not be a pain, but I’m hearing accolades tossed about that never entered into a single conversation before this season started. All involving different players like McCauley especially, Costner, Grant, Fells, Horner, and Nieman, at different points and to different degrees. Besides wanting to be optmistic like the rest of us, before the season ever started, and considering we haven’t blown anyone out while earning all of those accolades, I’m just wondering where your earlier prognostications came from? I say they were based on the usual, “any ACC team could and should beat the likes of such and such,” and could have been easily denied, especially with the injury to Atsur. But now, Lowe has taken a much less than average ACC team, (*saying that based solely on their previous showings in earlier seasons), and lived up to your predictions for you. This group, with certain other coaching styles, would have made your earlier prediction look follish right now.

  4. newt 12/19/2006 at 4:07 PM #

    Usually an inexperienced team trips up a time or two early, and we haven’t done that.

    We’ve won some games even when we have been off a bit in some facet of our game (i.e. 3-point shooting, rebounding, turnovers), and we’ve plugged on without Atsur, which shows a pretty good mentality.

  5. choppack1 12/19/2006 at 4:23 PM #

    newt – We’re somewhat inexperienced, but I think that’s a little exaggerated. That’s part of the reason why I was optimistic.

    Coming into the year, our starting 5 included no true freshman. The 5 had varying levels of experience – Atsur, whose pretty much started every game since he’s been here, Grant, who was a known entity, McCauley – who played minutes, but not tons, Fells – who saw very little action, but who we knew had lots of potential, and Costner – a redshirted McD AA.

    This truly is a unique situation in that all 5 starters were ACC-calibre. The problem – which has already revealed itself – was that there was no room for injuries or foul trouble. I really can’t recall a lot of situations in our conference where the starting 5 was solid, but the cupboard was bare after that – going into the year.

  6. Rick 12/19/2006 at 4:33 PM #

    “We’re somewhat inexperienced”

    McCauley and Fells averaged less than 15 min per game combined. Add in the fact that the only offense they were praticed on was the weave and heave and you have got no experience there.
    Grant played last year (22 min per game) but not at the position he is currently playing.
    Costner has played a grand total of 69 min of college ball.
    Add in the “help” we so desperately need is a player that has not played competitive ball in over a year and never at the college level.
    The players that are currenly playing avg 27 min a game combined last year.

    We have very little experience especially without Atsur and IMO are doing extremely well considering. Lowe has taught them well.

  7. choppack1 12/19/2006 at 5:03 PM #

    Rick – I agree that Lowe has done an outstanding job thus far w/ this group. I’m naturally a cautiously optimistic fan – and I knew this much going into the season:

    Each of the last 5 years we lost key starters from an NCAA tourney team and 4 out of the last 5 years we had key injuries to starters. Whenever a player was called upon, he usually did well, if not very well. These players typically played sparingly until called upon.

    I saw McCauley and Fells in that category.

    I placed Grant in the category as someone who had been called upon – and done fairly well. (See his results at the end of last season.)

    So you know you can count on Grant and Atsur. I was actually more concerned about McCauley and Costner than I was about Fells.

    McCauley and Costner have both exceeded my expectations. Fells is pretty much doing what I thought he would.

  8. NCStateDud92 12/19/2006 at 5:15 PM #

    A win Vs. bama would look great to the selection folks,

  9. Astral Rain 12/19/2006 at 6:21 PM #

    Is the Alabama game going to be on ESPN?

    Gives me a reason to stay up Wednesday night if it is.

  10. CarnifeX 12/19/2006 at 6:31 PM #

    not inexperienced? isn’t Nieman a walkon???!?!

  11. RabidWolf 12/19/2006 at 6:38 PM #

    If the game IS on HYPE, then watch out, here comes Jimmy Dykes!!

    If I am able to make it to the ‘Bama game, and I see Dykes, y’all have my word…I will hunt him down and choke the life out of his hair. Although, it might be a bit of a fight.

    If Furguson can give us some quality minutes, and hit some good jumpers, then we will have an excellent chance to take out the Tide.

  12. Woof Wolf 12/19/2006 at 6:43 PM #

    It’s on FSNS.

  13. RabidWolf 12/19/2006 at 6:45 PM #

    Damn, there goes my shot to take on the hair.

  14. Mr O 12/19/2006 at 9:08 PM #

    Put me in the group that still has zero hope of an NCAA tournament bid and still thinks it will be a stretch to make the NIT. I haven’t watched but a few minutes of a couple of other ACC teams. An NIT bid would be a great result for Sidney’s 1st year.

    I was at the Bama game last year. Cool old school arena, ribs and white bread from the Original Dreamland, and a very well-played game by the Pack right before Xmas. It should be fun making a much shorter trip tomorrow night to see us play.

  15. redfred2 12/19/2006 at 11:59 PM #

    Chop,

    You are talking in hindsight, and only because of the first nine games of this current season. If McCauley and Costner had played these first games on a much lower skill level, then they WOULD actually be doing just like you said about Fells, and pretty much playing as you thought they would also. They would be doing exactly as they had done in the past, and we would be losing more than we’re winning right now.

    These guys are playing a whole new brand of basketball, in different positions on the court than any they had previously played in a Wolfpack uniform. They’ve also had very limited time on the basketball court during games, especially considering the talent they are revealing to us now. But if anyone wants to consider them experienced, then go right ahead.

  16. StateFans 12/20/2006 at 7:26 AM #

    As usual…AWESOME insight by everyone. Thanks so much for the educated conversation.

  17. Rick 12/20/2006 at 8:01 AM #

    “McCauley and Costner have both exceeded my expectations. Fells is pretty much doing what I thought he would.”

    Agreed on all three accounts.
    Maybe it is a good thing they did not get alot of time in last year.

  18. RickJ 12/20/2006 at 8:16 AM #

    I wasn’t sure what to expect from Costner & McCauley. What we’ve gotten so far is two highly skilled 6’8” players that can shoot, rebound, pass, defend intelligently and have great hands.

    When Astur went down in the Michigan game, I was convinced we would lose by 20 and we would not be competitive against UVA & WVU. Lowe has done a great job of helping Grant be reasonably successful as a point guard. I still don’t think we can have much success in the ACC without Astur. He is our best point guard, best perimeter defender on a point guard and best outside shooter. He makes all five positions on the court stronger and our depth better. We are a much better rebounding team with Grant at the 3 spot.

    With Astur (and everyone else at full strength), we have a chance. It is going to be a fine line in the league between about 5th place and 12th place.

  19. choppack1 12/20/2006 at 9:17 AM #

    “Maybe it is a good thing they did not get alot of time in last year.”

    I wouldn’t say that – except in Costner’s case. We didn’t want him playing w/ a bum hip. However, one of my bigger gripes about Sendek how certain talent would languish on the bench. He seemed to voluntarily play only a small amount of his roster (just my perception mind you.)

    However, like I said before, when kids got a chance, they generally stepped in and played pretty well. As a result, I wasn’t expecting the pure, unmitigated disaster others were. I’m happy to be where we are right now – and I’m happy that IMHO, we still have a decent shot at an NCAA bid right now, especially if we start rebounding and defending better.

  20. Rick 12/20/2006 at 9:24 AM #

    chop,
    Don’t let Mr O hear you say that. He and I went back and forth on that very subject last week.
    I happen to agree with you.

  21. Mr O 12/20/2006 at 10:01 AM #

    Rick: LOL. Yes, we did go back and forth on that. I think Choppack uses a very important word “perception”. However, as I argued last week I don’t think that the perception that Herb didn’t play young players matches reality. IMO, Herb played young players as much as any coach with our rosters would have played our young players. Inge(starter), Thornton(starter), Gainey(starter), Kelley(starter at times), A. Harrison(starter/led team in scoring), A. Grundy(starter), Damien Wilkins(starter), and M. Williams all played significant minutes as freshman.

    After the class of Wilkins/Williams/Crawford, there wasn’t as much playing time the next year for the freshman class of Bell/Melvin/Sherrill/Guidry.

    Of those four freshmen, only Scooter was a top 50 recruit(and an overrated one at that). Scooter offered no versatility and could only provide streak shooting at the shooting guard position early in his career. He still averaged 13 minutes his first two seasons at NC State, but he played behind a four year starter and one of the best NC State players of the last 15 years in Anthony Grundy.

    Then we lost four seniors and Dwilkins after the disastrous 13-15 years. The following year Herb started two freshmen Julius Hodge and Josh Powell to start the year and then had two other freshmen(Levi Watkins and Ilian Evtimov) were the first two guys off the bench.

    Levi got hurt unfortunately and then Ilian and JP swapped spots in the rotation towards the end of the year. But, Herb did in fact play a lot of freshman that year.

    Then our recruiting slipped for two straight years(i.e. not many freshman warranted PT). Cam Bennerman played decent minutes behind an upperclassmen at his position who had a strong junior year – Scooter Sherrill. But again, Cam wasn’t a highly touted recruit(though a better recruit than Scooter IMO) and he played behind a good upperclassman.

    Then Atsur was our only strong freshman recruit and he averaged a whopping 29.5 mins per game. MOD started something like 7 games that year also.

    After the Atsur class, Brackman averaged nearly 20 mins, Grant 15 mins and Simmons 10 mins per game. So again, the freshman class played a significant role in us making the Sweet 16.

    By my count, Herb started 12 different freshmen during his tenure at NC State. With 9 of them being regular starters and the other three part-time starters.

  22. Rick 12/20/2006 at 10:47 AM #

    Fells and McCauley averaged less than 15 min a game between the two of them. That is not perception.
    It is not like there were all ACC players in front of them. It is not like there weren’t periods where those players played like crap. There was plenty of playing time for those two players.
    Anyone could have looked at the team and seen that this year we were going to be guard poor. Why would a coach not get minutes for a player (Fells) that he KNOWS is going to have to play next year? It makes no sense.

    Herb has played freshmen when he has no choice but to play them. He has never been good at building quality depth.

  23. redfred2 12/20/2006 at 11:32 AM #

    O, good stats and good points.

    I guess my problem with what you’re saying, and the way I saw it, was that players like Simmons, and especially Cameron Bennerman, had at least certain skills that should have allowed them to contribute more readily from day one. That it should have been even more true in Herb’s interchangeable parts offensive philosophy than most any other coach’s out there. In my opinion that philosophy should have insured that no one player was ever really playing ‘behind’ another, and if a kid could contribute from anywhere on the court, then there were five equal spots readily available to him at any time. Therefore, a Sherill/Bennerman conflict should have been less of an issue under HS than most anywhere in the country. Also, it seemed there was always a clear distinction between ‘the five’ and ‘the others,’ with ‘the others’ lacking confidence, doubtful, looking over their shoulders all of the time, expecting to be pulled from the game at any moment.

    I guess all of that previous garble just says that Herb’s philosophy was such that I thought it could have, and should have, lent itself to any player on the team, regardless of their class ranking or the usual pecking orders involved. And since his offensive philosophy didn’t seem to involve his bench to higher degree than normal, there was never any opportunity to develop true depth there. Which ultimately, and again in my opinion, lead to year after year struggles in the off season, working to bring those part time players up to starting skill levels, after the others had moved on.

    We’re doing it again! I quit.

  24. Mr O 12/20/2006 at 2:44 PM #

    “Fells and McCauley averaged less than 15 min a game between the two of them. That is not perception.It is not like there were all ACC players in front of them. It is not like there weren’t periods where those players played like crap.”

    Are you serious? They weren’t behind all-ACC players? If we look at the facts then you will remember that Fells played behind our leading scorer last year. Cameron Bennerman was in fact 3rd team all-ACC.

    McCauley played behind Cedric Simmons who was all-ACC honorable mention, the 18th leading vote getter overall, and on the all-ACC defensive team. He was also a lottery pick in the NBA.

    Considering that we had Atsur, Bethel and Bennerman last year there just wasn’t much time to be had in the backcourt because of the experience and talent of this group. Plus, we had Gavin Grant as the first wing off the bench and then Andrew Brackman at the four and the five to spell Evtimov and Simmons.

    http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/030606aaq.html#acc

    Fells and McCauley joined a team that had seven talented, experienced players in front of them. The sophmore class on last year’s team(Grant, Simmons, and Brackman) played 20% of the total team minutes as freshman, even though Herb didn’t play freshmen.

    You can’t just look at one year and conclude that Herb didn’t like to play freshman because the facts don’t support that conclusion over the ten year period.

    Here is an article from Tim Peeler just last year on freshman contributions under Sendek:

    http://www.gopack.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=45818&SPID=3731&DB_OEM_ID=9200&ATCLID=621216

    Minutes played by freshman:
    Thornton/Gainey/Wells – 25% of total minutes
    Inge/Miller/Kelley – 42% of total minutes
    Grundy/Bean/A. Harrison – 23% of total minutes
    Crawford/Wilkins/Williams -25.3% of total minutes
    Bell/Melvin/Sherrill/Guidry – 16.2% of total minutes
    Hodge/Evtimov/Powell/Collins/Watkins – 40.2% minutes
    Bennerman/Flatt/Mejia/Simons – 5.9%
    Atsur/O’Donnell – 18.9%
    Grant/Brackman/Simmons – 20%
    McCauley/Fells(Costner hurt) – 6.1%

    Next year I will remember not to give Lowe credit for playing freshman because he will only be doing it out of necessity.

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